Looking back: predictions about our Afghanistan withdrawal
I’m not sure many of us were paying a whole lot of attention to what was being said about our withdrawal from Afghanistan before it occurred, but I think it’s instructive to look back and see what people in government were saying. For example, consider this article from April 22, written very shortly after Biden announced his withdrawal schedule.
One of the most curious bits of Congressional testimony to reflect on now was by General MacKenzie [emphasis mine]:
The top U.S. general in the Middle East expressed concern Thursday about Afghan forces’ ability to fend off the Taliban after U.S. troops withdraw from the country.
“My concern is the ability of the Afghan military to hold the ground that they’re on now without the support that they’ve been used to for many years,” Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“I am concerned about the ability of the Afghan military to hold on after we leave, the ability of the Afghan air force to fly, in particular, after we remove the support for those aircraft,” he added.
Pressed later in the hearing on continuing to fund Afghan forces when U.S. troops withdraw, McKenzie said that without “some support,” the Afghan forces “certainly will collapse.”
It says later on that MacKenzie expressed “great concern” about the future of the embassy, and that he refused to state what he told Biden about the withdrawal. But one can imagine. Perhaps MacKenzie didn’t think the collapse would happen in a matter of days, but I bet he wasn’t in favor of the way this was done. Is anyone aware of what he’s said more recently?
Then there’s this:
“The arbitrary Sept. 11 deadline for troop drawdown risks a power vacuum that terrorists will dominate and use to threaten our homeland again,” Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) said at Thursday’s hearing.
And Elizabeth Warren should be reminded of this [emphasis mine]:
By contrast, while pressing McKenzie on Taliban gains over the past decade, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Thursday, “It’s clear there is little for us to be gained by a continued U.S presence there.”
“We should have learned by now that a conditions-based withdrawal is just a recipe for staying in Afghanistan forever,” she said.
Sure, Liz. That’s all it was – no need to worry about holding the Taliban to any conditions, like those silly warmongering Republicans were advocating.
a conditions-based withdrawal is just a recipe for staying in Afghanistan forever
It depends on what those “conditions” are. It’s pretty clear now (hindsight’s 20/20) that if the conditions were to be that the Afghan military should be able hold off the Taliban indefinitely, then yeah… we’d be there forever.
If the conditions were that we wouldn’t leave until Afghanistan magicallly became a fully modern, Western style democracy with all the human rights and freedoms for every person, including every last LGBTQIA34ZFG4$X that such a thing might entail, then also… forever.
If we just wanted it so that the Afghan military wouldn’t collapse like a card table with an anvil set down on it 30 seconds after we pulled out… well, maybe not forever, but who knows?
Either way, all that is certain at this point is that what actually ended up happening was, shall we say, suboptimal.
Here’s a bunch of silly Pronouncements from the Biden* Admin embedded in a comedy show.
https://rumble.com/vlgqxp-who-wants-to-see-sleepy-joe-get-the-tommys-garage-treatment-after-this-week.html
I saw a “Leaving Afghanistan for Dummies” parody book cover.
Four steps of which I forget one–
Remove citizens
Destroy equipment
Remove troops
Needless to say, Joe got the order wrong
“no need to worry about holding the Taliban to any conditions, like those silly warmongering Republicans were advocating.”
Why did both Trump and Biden publicly set a deadline for getting out of Afghanistan? Maybe I’m wrong but I suspect it’s because they both believed setting such a definite point of media and world attention was the only way they could be sure the military would actually…you know…OBEY THEIR ORDERS AND GET OUT OF AFGHANISTAN.
Mike
Has anybody noticed that that totally incompetent, inept, lying sack of smelly dog excrement, Antony Blinken has never been asked what was his role in devising and/or implementing the disastrous Afghan, get-out-of Dodge-yesterday plan?
There is no doubt that he sat in on whatever meetings there were with the powers that be that originated the FUBAR Afghan “get out now” plan.
Did he just sit there with his thumb up his anal orifice (i.e. his mouth) and say nothing?
Or did he actually emit some sort of facial flatulence sounds – disguised as words – and say something?
I wish some “reporter” (i.e., a Joke Bidet propagandist) would perhaps have the cohones to ask Blinkenlites that question.
Sorry if the noun “cohones,” offends anybody, but we all know that gender is a social construct and any carbon based human life form can have cohones (as well as a hysterectomy; though I have been searching for formerly defined as males having their ovarian cysts removed.
But hey, maybe an episode will appear on Pimple Poppers where we all can see that.
Dr.Lee are you listening?
MBunge:
Trump’s deadline was conditions-based. It was not a firm deadline – it was a goal. Trump was serious about getting out, but was aware he might not be able to. Trump was the dealmaker, and part of the deal was that the Taliban FIRST had to form a coalition government with the then-government of Afghanistan, for example. He was well aware that might not happen, and he was perfectly willing to walk away if the conditions weren’t met. The goal was to state his intent of leaving, but leaving only if certain things were secure and only in certain ways.
And the May 1 date he set was set for a reason – the idea being that it was before what’s called “fighting season” in Afghanistan. In winter the Taliban always retreated to Pakistan. Now, obviously, they could have changed that, but because of weather and other logistics the May 1 date would have made it harder for them to return in force to take over the country quickly. And air support would have continued, one way or another, as well as certain other things Biden paid no attention to or withdrew. Biden also pulled out in the middle of fighting season, making it very easy for the Taliban (plus no conditions whatsoever of course – Biden’s pullout date was FIRM and not part of any negotiations).
Setting a date was a very small part of it for Trump, actually. The differences were enormous.
Nonapod:
We had already spent billions, and many lives, setting up conditions in Afghanistan to have a military presence there in order to prevent it becoming another center for and exporter of terrorism. Withdrawing troops 100% and withdrawing all support including air support at this time was always going to result in a Taliban takeover, but that’s not (according to Pompeo and Trump) what they contemplated. They have said they would not have withdrawn air support and would have kept Bagram. They wanted to reduce our presence there to a minimum, but realized that would not mean zero support for the Afghans, at least not now. I don’t know how long it would have been necessary to stay there in these more minimal ways, but we already stay in many places, including some dangerous places, for similar preventative reasons. It’s a question of pay now or pay later.
And of course, even if the goal is to withdraw 100%, Biden did it in the most effed-up order and the most effed-up way possible.
John Tyler:
I haven’t watched most of the Congressional hearings in which Blinken was interrogated, but my guess is that some of the Republican members of Congress asked him versions of that question, and he probably dodged the answer.
Unconditional surrender, billions in state of the art military “housewarming gifts”, and nation building with the Taliban. Biden has surpassed his mentor, Obama. Time will tell it this, too, progresses as wars without borders (i.e. transnational).
There is no way in hell that Austin and Milley did not know of Gen. Frank McKenzie’s “the top U.S. general in the Middle East” statement before a congressional committee that without “some support,” the Afghan forces “certainly will collapse.”.
Which means they knowingly facilitated that collapse. Only by resigning prior to the pullout and immediately holding a public news conference where they exposed Biden’s intent could they avoid that charge.
And because those who heard McKenzie’s statement did not immediately and publicly level that charge against Austin and Milley, they too are complicit in the coverup.
“The differences were enormous.”
Yeah, I’m pretty sure Trump would have handled the withdrawal better than Biden, but possibly at the risk of not actually being able to get out because the military kept telling him that the “conditions” were never right.
My point is that both Trump and Biden probably set clear, specific deadlines for getting out far in advance because they experienced SERIOUS resistance from the military and foreign service and needed a public bugout date to fight back against attempts to delay or impede withdrawal.
Mike
This is 2:20 of comic gold.
https://twitter.com/ryanlongcomedy/status/1439954606914682881
The problem is that it is illegal / career-ending to speak the truth in plain words.
It wasn’t just about contractors and air support. General Whoever said that because he could not say “The Afghan Leadership and Afghan National Army are a bunch of degenerate Ghazal-singing Boy Bonkers who have zero chance of being able to fix a broken down tank or manage a radio net”. He also couldn’t say out loud that long experience had taught Americans on the front line that the ANA couldn’t be relied on for *anything* and in fact tended toward running and/or treachery when it suited.
The only question is whether or not Sapir-Whorf kicked in and American decision makers began kidding themselves and each-other… and the answer to that question is a resounding Yes.
It was all lies from top to bottom. A Bright and Shining Lie… Ring a bell?:P
There is a place for manners and decorum. But our supposed Western Civilization is so mired in lies and untruths that a Restorative Season of Bluntness is called for. I try to contribute my Widow’s Mite.
It’s been said, with some relevance, that we’re not ending the war in Afghanistan. We’re abandoning a theater in a 1400 year old war.
Looking at it from the latter point of view, should we have left?