Children and the Delta variant
One of the few – very few – blessings connected with COVID so far has been that for the most part children have not had bad cases, and very few deaths. Our children and grandchildren are precious beyond description, and we would do almost anything to protect them if we could.
At present children under twelve are unvaccinated for two reasons. The first is the general mildness of the illness in children, and the second is that the vaccine is relatively untested in children. Those two things change the risk/benefit ratio for vaccination for young children, at least for now.
But lately the Delta variant has reared its ugly head. As commenter TommyJay states:
The latest push seems to be that children are much more at risk with Delta. At risk of infection. or risk being spreaders, or risk of getting really sick? Would you trust their answer if they gave one?
An example of what he’s talking about can be seen in this NBC News article, for example, which is headlined in a large font: “As delta variant spreads, medical experts warn of risk to young children.” That headline alone is enough to frighten a parent or grandparent.
The subtitle goes like this: “A Covid vaccine has not yet been authorized for children under the age of 12, putting them among the unvaccinated who are at risk of infection.” That’s certainly true, although obvious and not necessarily all that meaningful if the infections tend to be similar to the infections caused in children by the previous variants.
In the second paragraph of the article it says: “As of July 8, more than 4 million children had been diagnosed with Covid-19, representing 14.2 percent of all cases, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.” Is that different than the percentage of cases in children prior to Delta? And of course, one would expect the percentage of children among cases to go up compared to pre-vaccine times, because children represent a large percentage of the unvaccinated and the unvaccinated are apparently more vulnerable.
The article goes on to say:
At least 335 children, ages 17 and younger, have died from Covid-19, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, although serious complications in kids remain extremely rare. But increasing cases among children, including severe ones, are expected as the delta variant spreads and with no Covid vaccine authorized for children under the age of 12.
That paragraph fails to mention that of the children who died, virtually all had significant pre-existing conditions.
More:
“Last year, for example, you would have to give a child a really high infectious dose to make them sick, but with the virus that’s more contagious, even what would be an insignificant exposure could get them sick,” said Dr. Carlos Oliveira, a pediatric infectious diseases doctor and assistant professor of pediatrics at the Yale School of Medicine.
I’d love to know on what that statement is based. I’d also like to know what Dr. Oliveira means by “sick” – does he mean an asymptomatic positive test or sick enough to feel sick? The article doesn’t say.
Children have gotten COVID right from the start of the pandemic, mostly with mild symptoms. For example, take a look at this article which studies cases in the spring and summer of 2020, way before there was any vaccine. The title is: “Continued proportional age shift of confirmed positive COVID-19 incidence over time to children and young adults: Washington State March—August 2020.” Here’s an excerpt from the abstract:
After the peak (March 22, 2020), incidence declined in older age groups and increased among age 0–19 and 20–39 age groups from 20% to 40% of total cases by April 19 and 50% by May 3. During this time testing expanded with more testing among older age groups and less testing among younger age groups while case positivity shifted young. Percent positive cases age 0-19/20-39 years through August 2020 increased to a consistent average of 60% [age 0–19 increased to 19% (N = 10257), age 20–39 increased to 42% (N = 30215)].
If Washington cases are any indication, that’s an even higher percentage of young children among diagnosed COVID cases than we are seeing now.
Back to that NBC article, which finally comes out with this:
Still, there is no evidence that children are more susceptible to the delta variant of the virus than others who are unvaccinated or that it causes more severe illness.
Dr. Sean O’Leary, vice chair of the committee on infectious diseases for the American Academy of Pediatrics, said “it is more contagious in kids just like it’s more contagious in other unvaccinated individuals, but it’s not more contagious in kids than other unvaccinated individuals.”
None of this really deals with whether this variant causes more serious cases in children than other variants do. Apparently the answer is that they don’t know:
Dr. Jennifer Lighter, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at NYU Langone Health, said the delta variant, while it is “certainly more contagious,” doesn’t appear to be more dangerous to children than other variants…Versalovic also said, “We have no firm evidence that the disease severity in children and adolescents is any different with the delta variant.”
They have “no firm evidence.” Do they have any evidence of it? Isn’t that something we need to know? Surely they have some figures that bear on that, such as the ratio of hospitalized cases in children vs. diagnosed cases in children, pre-Delta and post-Delta. But I’ve been unable to find any such figures.
This really doesn’t engender a lot more trust in medical authorities than we had a few months ago, and most of us feel less trust than we did pre-COVID. TommyJay’s final question was, “Would you trust their answer if they gave one?”
My answer to “would I trust them” is no.
No, I don’t trust them at all. My great nephew is 13 and got it. He had a mild fever for a half day, then a bit of a headache and that was it. He’s a healthy young man and is out of quarantine and ready for school.
And the cat’s out of the bag:
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/double-blind-ivermectin-study-reveals-covid-19-patients-recover-more-quickly-have-reduce
So what’re they (twitter, FB, CDC, Fauci, the whole stinking gang) gonna do now?
If the past is any indication, double and triple down and smother this life-saving news (or call the double-bind test a non-recognized, unprofessional, reckless, deceptive [or fill in the blank] testing procedure, or whatever).
Simply because the show MUST go on, the Narrative(TM) MUST prevail…and the Democrats MUST win in 2022 and 2024….
Saving lives, encouraging life and bringing normalcy it appears, does not help them…)
Omaha newspaper, “According to the Douglas County COVID dashboard, 77 cases of COVID were reported among 5- to 9-year-olds in the week ending July 31, up from 16 the week before. The number of reported cases among all youths up to 18 years old rose from 69 to 157 over those same two weeks.”
In the same article, Children’s Hosp said it has a few kids in the hospital.
The Douglas County health director wants all kids to be masked at school. The two largest districts are saying masks are optional. A small district is requiring masks for K-6. Safety.
It is nothing but lies 24/7.
The Douglas County health director wants all kids to be masked at school.
We’ve reached the point where having the initials ‘MPH’ after your name is almost as injurious to your reputation as the initials ‘MSW’.
I do not trust them at all. Brings back the memory of all the people that died “with COVID” that were presented as “of COVID” thereby creating the mass fear that doesn’t appear to be going away any time soon. And the answers the authorities offer to the dilemma! Our grandsons (4 & 2) attend a pre-school and yesterday a note went home that the children will now have to wear a mask. This is a California thing–the school is NOT in favor of it but must comply. Have the people requiring this ever been around a 2 and 4 year old? Wear a mask to catch all their germs that are constantly emanating from their nose and mouth? Their little hands touching their mask, their face, their friends. Come on, Man!
Barry,
The study is encouraging, however with only 45 patients in each group the study can rightly be criticized as not having statistical significance.
Don’t get me wrong. It adds to the evidence that Ivermectin is most likely a very good treatment option. I would be asking for it from my doctor if I got Covid. But that particular study is not going to cause a major shift due to the low N number. Now if they had 500, or even better a 1000 in each group, then even the Fauci’s of the world may not be able to ignore it.
Shouldn’t that be the next step, then?
The problem is that if you ask for ivermectin if you get infected, your doctor may refuse to prescribe it, because it’s not in the “standard treatment” protocol. Of course, standard treatment, since the disease emerged on these shores, has been “stay home and call back in a week if you have trouble breathing.”
TommyJay’s final question was, “Would you trust their answer if they gave one?”
That’s a rhetorical question, right?
“If you once forfeit the confidence of your fellow citizens, you can never regain their respect and esteem.” Abraham Lincoln
Ron DeSantis is an American hero. We’ve all been burned before but this guy is amazing.
Hype up the “variant” during summer vacation, say it puts school-age children at risk, parents rush out to have their kids tested, lots of kids start (falsely) testing positive, and the 2021-22 school year is remote again. Teachers get to day-drink, smoke marijuana, and phone in their classes from home on zoom, like the entitled geniuses (who could’ve gone to med school if they wanted, doncha know?) they believe they are.
This is all being orchestrated for the teachers’ union.
Barry Meislin,
December 8, 2020 : Physician Tells Senate, Ivermectin Is a COVID ‘Wonder Drug;’ ‘If You Take It, You Will Not Get Sick’
https://www.cnsnews.com/index.php/article/national/susan-jones/physician-tells-senate-ivermectin-covid-wonder-drug-if-you-take-it-you
I’ve read of no further coverage of this Senate session…
Recently, an elderly relative, when visiting a doctor for something else, was chided by the doctor for not getting the COVID vaccine.
This doctor did NOT (or could not) give a “good” medical reason why my relative should get the vaccine except to keep saying “You’re SUPPOSED TO be vaccinated against COVID!” When I asked why – the answer was the same. “SUPPOSED to be”
Now, if this doctor knew her stuff she might have been able to give a coherent medical reason; but, she just couldn’t say anything else except “SUPPOSED to be”.
I have zero trust in THAT doctor and we will not be going back to her ever again. I feel that same way about all the “medical advice” talking heads and other Faucis have given. Too many political reasons and very little medical reasons.
And, unfortunately, I lost faith in my fellow Americans, when they voted for Obama a second time, to believe that they won’t keep voting for the politicians who call people “knuckleheads” who haven’t been vaccinated.
Barry.
Yes. Absolutely. But such a study is expensive to set up and the funding agencies would not go against “settled science ” to fund it.
The poor guy in Israel did what he could on a shoestring budget
@neo:This really doesn’t engender a lot more trust in medical authorities than we had a few months ago, and most of us feel less trust than we did pre-COVID.
Remember that journalists are presenting you with the quotes they have selected from the medical authorities they chose to consult. We can’t treat these quotes as representative of what “medical authorities” in general are thinking.
It’s the same Gell-Mann amnesia at play with anything written by journalists. The actual expert consensus may be quite different. The actual expert quotes may have had all sorts of qualifications that were omitted because the journalist did not want to distract from the story they already decided they were writing.
And so the public comes away with “doctors can’t be trusted”, and it’s possible they can’t, but what actually happened was that “journalists can’t be trusted to speak on behalf of doctors” or any other experts for that matter.
Remember that journalists are presenting you with the quotes they have selected from the medical authorities they chose to consult. We can’t treat these quotes as representative of what “medical authorities” in general are thinking.
True. You’ll recall, however, that Cornhead was quoting his county health commissioner. That example is not cherry-picked.
DeSantis:
‘We can have a free society or a biomedical security state’
This.
I was curious about the headlines of a big Delta outbreak in China. They are testing millions of people! I read the stories and discover they claim 485 cases since July 20 — after 0 cases since May 2020.
Neither of those numbers sound right. My bet is that new cases in China are just as prevalent as in the US. Now they are admitting to a few of them to help gin up Delta fear.
Frederick:
The CDC and WHO have shown they cannot be trusted. That’s not cherry-picking; this is the heads.
I see a very high percentage of young kids in my community wearing masks in parks. I shudder when I see a child, age 2 perhaps, wearing a mask as the CDC used to say that the suffocation risk was too high at that age or below.
Re: teachers, unions, and school children. I’ve got a neighbor who has been teaching from home electronically all last year, and is a nice lady and a lefty. I think it was last Dec. or early Jan. when she was in a tizzy over vaccination. What’s the point of it?, she said. The school officials are getting us all geared up to get vaccinated, but the union says that won’t stop transmission of the disease. (Note, the union knew this without any data.) Sigh.
_____
Kate’s comment on standard medical treatment protocols is a good one, and it pisses me off. I’ve read that the Regeneron monoclonal antibody treatment is not generally administered unless the patient has a pre-existing condition or some similar qualification. My local hospital says that you can request it without checking some checkbox, and they are going to charge you for it. Can’t have HCQ or Ivermectin though.
One of the shocking things to me is that none of the official channels want to recommend that people make sure that they getting adequate vitamin C & D, and zinc. I think Barry M. mentioned that in the previous thread. I’ve also been burning extra gasoline in the last 18 mo. driving to the sunshine, as I live in a fog belt. A little sun exposure delivers high grade vit. D, and I like it anyway.
Good research Neo. I don’t quite understand (still) why even unvaccinated folks don’t seem to be having as much serious illness compared to the bad old days last year. Possibilities: Some very bad hospital practices from last year have been eliminated, new and improved hospital practices (e.g. Dexamethazone), or the Delta variant just isn’t as bad.
charles, absent conditions which would make the vaccine dangerous, I think your “elderly relative” should get the vaccine. The elderly are still dying of this virus, and results since the vaccination became common show that many fewer of us are getting seriously ill or dying. If the doctor couldn’t explain that, agreed, another doctor might be a good idea; but so is the shot, for most older people.
But there are good reasons for some people not to get the shots. Some rock band member just got fired for refusing; he’s got Guillain-Barré syndrome and vaccines are unsafe for him. When people lose their jobs for exercising their individual judgment, we’ve gone way too far.
TommyJay:
Some reasons that even unvaccinated people might not be having so much trouble as before:
(1) They are younger; almost all the old ones are vaccinated.
(2) The treatments are probably better.
(3) As viruses mutate there is a tendency for newer strains to be more contagious but less virulent.
“Why I Refuse to Be Vaccinated”
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/08/why_i_refuse_to_be_vaccinated.html
“Fully-Vaxxed Gibraltar Sees 2500 PERCENT SPIKE in COVID-19 Cases Per Day, Initiates New Lockdowns”
https://rightedition.com/2021/08/04/fully-vaxxed-gibraltar-sees-2500-percent-spike-in-covid-19-cases-per-day-initiates-new-lockdowns/
The normal course of a disease without a high death rate is that it winnows humanity’s genetic base of susceptibility to that disease, strengthening the population’s immune systems. While individually tragic, societally and evolutionarily it is a net benefit.
The Democrats are always citing nameless, faceless “experts”. medical ones in this setting, other types for other issues..
It goes back to the birth of Progressivism at UWisc around 1900- those profs wanted to be ruled by experts, though they were postulated to be disinterested, Which is crazy.
Neo,
If (3) and less virulent, then “they” really are BSing us. To Frederick’s point, some or many doctors are saying that Delta isn’t more severe. But some officials are saying the opposite. Buyers (of information) beware.
TommyJay:
I’ve heard lots of doctors say it’s worse or more serious or any number of negative adjectives, but then when they explain it seems they mean more catching. More spreadable. I haven’t yet heard anyone say that the ratio of serious cases to cases is higher than with other variants. And I haven’t seen an article that says it, either.
That doesn’t mean someone isn’t saying it. But I haven’t seen it. Do you have a link?
They’re playing two games.
First, the denominator game. They’re looking at the percentage of current covid that’s in kids, not at how many kids have covid. Let’s say in a pre-vaccine time period 1000 people were diagnosed with covid, 100 of whom were kids, or 10%. After vaccines, the number of people over 60 getting covid drops dramatically, so the total number getting covid is 500, 100 of them are kids. Holy cow! Kids jumped from 10% to 20%! Twice as many kids!!!! But the number of kids stayed exactly the same.
The second game is the hospitalized for vs with covid game. When hospitals were virtually shut down during the worst part of the epidemic, the people in the hospital with covid were mostly there *because* of covid. Now, hospitals are open again for “non emergency” things like cardiac stents and hip replacements. That applies to kids too. How many of the hospitalized kids with covid are there for something else and happened to test positive on intake, and how many are actually hospitalized *because* of covid?
And they’ve been saying for 18 months now that the latest strain attacks kids more than the last!! It has never been true yet. Until they show actual data to back that up, I’m not buying it. They’ve lost all credibility.
I swear, most of the current panic is being ginned up to protect teachers unions who don’t want to go back to work and who want to torture kids for another year.
For anyone who wants a comparison of Delta to prior strains, check out pages 14-15 of this document put out biweekly in England (the next one should come out Friday):
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf
Their statistics, with over 100k cases of alpha and another 100k cases of delta show delta has a lower hospitalization rate and a much lower death rate than the alpha (UK) strain.
Getting tired of the Delta variant?
Don’t fret, Gamma and Lambda variants are currently warming up in the bullpen.
I’m sure they will be super duper infectious blah, blah, blah…
Geoffrey Britain:
Whatever Luc Montagnier’s credentials, what he says isn’t true. We’ve known for years that it is in the nature of viruses to develop variants with or without vaccines.
The first important COVID variant was detected in the UK in November of 2020 and was in a sample taken in September of 2020, considerably before the population was vaccinated and even before the first person in the UK was vaccinated.
By the way, some interesting stuff about Montagnier. He’s 88, so maybe he’s a bit shaky at this point. He got his Nobel not for epidemiology or anything like that, but for the discovery of the HIV virus. That was in 1983 (the discovery, that is; the prize came a lot later), thirty-eight years ago, when he was about 50. On the other hand, he was one of the original people claiming that COVID was probably created in a lab and escaped (granted, a lot of people looking on a map and noticing that the bat lab was in Wuhan also figured that out, and they weren’t Nobel Prize-winning virologists). And the idea that COVID deaths in a country spike after mass vaccination just doesn’t fit the statistics we’re seeing.
neo:
Yes, in recent years Montagnier has become something of a crank. I would caution people not to quote Montagnier for support in this discussion. Here’s a quick summary:
______________________________
And as an illustration of Friedman’s theorem [“…the Nobel Prize authorizes every recipient to pronounce on any subject whatsoever, even those of which he is ignorant.”], since Montagnier received this distinction, he has mounted a campaign against vaccination, endorsed homeopathy, and claimed that AIDS can be cured through diet. Suckers credit his nonsense, since he is a Nobel prizewinner….
https://www.city-journal.org/evaluating-nobel-prize
______________________________
For a longer discussion:
https://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2012/06/27/luc-montagnier-hits-a-new-low-age-of-autism-rallies-to-defend-him
However, the recent Montagnier quote, that everyone who has received the Covid vaxx will die, is fake.
Problem solved.
https://babylonbee.com/news/bidensays-new-lockdown-will-only-last-for-one-month-or-until-the-end-of-the-us-whichever-is-sooner
neo,
Gibraltar somewhat argues otherwise. I agree that viruses often mutate when vaccines are absent. He may be wrong about the mRNA vaccines creating variants but Gibraltar offers evidence that the mRNA vaccines confer extreme susceptibility to reinfection from variants. And just because the Delta variant is less deadly doesn’t obviate the possibility that a future ‘Omega’ variant won’t be especially deadly. Can there be any doubt that the CCP, having seen the devastation pandemics wreck upon the West is not now working feverishly to develop such a variant?
huxley,
Regarding Montagnier’s lack of expertise and possible decline in his mental faculties, what authority should we regard as trustworthy?
John Hayward aka Doc Zero –
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1420727736063168517.html
Regarding Montagnier’s lack of expertise and possible decline in his mental faculties, what authority should we regard as trustworthy?
Geoffrey Britain:
Nullius in verba!
(Latin, “on the word of no one” or “take nobody’s word for it”).
The homeopathy claim in the City Journal article is based on Montagnier’s paper, “DNA Waves and Water” (2011)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230937823_DNA_waves_and_water
(I can’t seem to quote from the article without being blocked.)
That sounds dubious enough to me, then coupled with his claims that AIDS can be cured with porridge and potato supplements and autism is based on microbial infections, I get the strong impression that Montagnier is all over the place and way ahead of his skis.
Back in the 70s I was taken with Linus Pauling, who had won a Nobel in Chemistry (never mind the one for Peace), then went on to recommend Vitamin C as the cure for colds and cancer. Pauling stuck to his guns, but his claims went nowhere when others researched them.
In any event, judge for yourself.
@huxley:
Re: Nullius in verba
The problem is that for a functioning civilized society of any useful degree of complexity you *have* to be able to take some people’s words for many things.
You simply cannot live your entire life according to the Cartesian Method. It’s not humanly possible. You have to be able to trust that traditions, mores, and institutions codify roadmaps for living and that ‘Experts’ have your best interests at heart and are sober and collected.
The destruction of trust in institutions, credentials, the replication crisis.. all of these lead us into an epistemological Slough of Despond or JJ Angleton’s Wilderness of Mirrors.
Nullius in verba is OK if you’re a gentleman of philosophical bent looking out upon your Latifundium from your hilltop villa equipped with a library full of scrolls and out there is an army of slaves bringing in the wheat and trampling the vintage. Doesn’t get you very far when you’re trying to figure out how to allocate your 401(k) in 2021 or select a health care plan.
So the question is how do we put the Fear of God in to Liars, Fakers, Poseurs, Main Chancers and stop selecting for them in our present Cursus (dis)Honorum?
Existential problem if we want to keep having stuff like electric light, IMHO.
Zaphod:
True, to a point, but then again — consider climate change and the demand to remake the world’s energy infrastructure at huge expense and impact on all our lives.
At that point Your Humble Citizen is going to have to put on his thinking cap and say, “Hmm. Do I let the Kryptonian Science Council run the world, because they say so, no matter what happens to me and mine?”
How do we put the Fear of God into the *right* Liars, Fakers, et al.?
It’s a problem and not one I see a solution to.
I’m also talking to GB, whom I trust to work out Montagnier on his own.
@Huxley:
“Hmm. Do I let the Kryptonian Science Council run the world, because they say so, no matter what happens to me and mine?”
You can probably guess that I’m not by nature an enthusiastic Wilsonian who would be in favour of the Kryptonian Science Council running so much as the local Dog Pound.
(Epistemological Crisis / Honesty / Character) “It’s a problem and not one I see a solution to.”
Me neither. And I think it may be another facet of the Great Filter.
Well, sleep well and soundly, we can trust Fauci and Whatever-ski of the CDC. How does it go? “A little sleep, a little slumber, folding of the hands, and …. game over.”
Re: The Great Filter…
Zaphod:
I went back and reviewed a couple TedX Tubes on Fermi’s Paradox.
In one the bearded hipster with long hair and black jeans (nonetheless a Ph.D in astrophysics and professor at CUNY) argues that because we are so close to spilling out into the solar system, thence the Universe, the Filter is probably behind us.
–Matthew Dowd, “Fermi’s Paradox and the Psychology of Galactic Empires”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lTvVTnjU5U
Then there’s this dude in a suit and tie saying:
_____________________________________
Something out there is killing everything … and you’re likely next.
–Robin Hanson, “The Great Filter”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aspMV6ERqpo
_____________________________________
Nullius in verba.
@Huxley:
As far as I can tell, only Mad Musk is making a serious effort.
Chinese possibly too, but cards closer to chest.
Hanson and someone’s The Elephant in the Brain is a good read.
^^ Bit late to the party but have just this month discovered The Expanse series and greatly enjoyed Season 1. Presumably at some point in a later season either Earth or Mars is going to cop an asteroid bombardment.
Zaphod:
That’s the guy! I’ll have to look into the Elephant book:
____________________________________
Human beings are primates, and primates are political animals. Our brains are therefore designed not just to hunt and gather, but also to get ahead socially, often by devious means.
But while we may be self-interested schemers, we benefit by pretending otherwise. The less we know about our own ugly motives, the better. And thus we don’t like to talk — or even think — about the extent of our selfishness. This is “the elephant in the brain,” an introspective blind spot that makes it hard to think clearly about ourselves and the explanations for our behavior.
https://www.elephantinthebrain.com
____________________________________
Definitely up my alley.
Zaphod:
“The Expanse” is on my short list for bingeables.
Our brains are therefore designed not just to hunt and gather, but also to get ahead socially, often by devious means.
But while we may be self-interested schemers, we benefit by pretending otherwise.
Zaphod:
This is one of my hobbyhorses here, when commenters go off into “Democrats and their minions must be evil.”
We are not wired to find the Truth and act for Good. We are wired to survive in social groups. “2+2” can always equal “5” when our peer group demands it and mostly we won’t even notice.
It’s taken a few thousand years of what passes for civilization for us to question that and it’s still plenty fragile.
Neo,
This was one of your links at Redstate, the CDC Powerpoint slide deck.
Slide #18:
I didn’t try to dig out the refs. But you can trust the CDC, correct?
TommyJay:
I followed the link you gave and there are no links to the studies themselves or even to abstracts of them. Therefore there is no way to evaluate what they actually say or on what it is based, and no way to determine how well-designed they are. What I look at is the number of cases vs. the number of hospitalizations and deaths in places with Delta surges compared to earlier strains, and in that regard so far Delta does not seem worse than other strains. It is certainly possible that in some areas of the country or the globe it does seem to take a higher toll, but what is the overall picture and what does it mean? And why were no links provided, or no abstracts?
Delta-wise:
Keep an eye on Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore. Singapore especially as most competent of these three by far.
Vietnam very quiet since pandemic started and then Delta arrived and off like a rocket. Thailand similar, but VN graph is really something. Singapore early days with Delta yet.
I’m leaving out Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia which are clocking up a lot of Delta cases and deaths because these three full of diabetic fatties and lots of superstition and low IQ nonsense + levels of incompetence which make even Thailand look to be on the ball.
@Huxley & Zaphod:
A page on “The Great Silence” and the “Fermi Paradox.”
http://www.faughnan.com/setifail.html
Zaphod, I bought “Commando” by Deneys Reitz, looks good so far, thanks.
@Huxley:
Re: Fermi’s Paradox and the Psychology of Galactic Empires | Matthew O´Dowd | TEDxTUWien
Just watched this one over lunch.
(As an aside, Elephant in the Brain puts new slant on TED Talks and motivations for same :P)
He didn’t say anything I took major exception to… Naturally there is the usual kernel of Category A Type Bestest TED Talks (i.e. Faust R Us. Yay Us. Humble Brag. The End.) in his spiel. But what really got me thinking in my default Black Pilled Mode was this:
If he’s correct in his arguments that we are vanishingly close to escaping the Filter (and I can’t fault his reasoning), then ask yourself this:
Given how close we are… What *wouldn’t* a Bezos, a Gates or a Musk do in order to get ‘Us’ (What do you mean Us, Kemosabe?) over the finish line? An individual or group sufficiently Promethean to be motivated and able to pull off the Big Step Off Earth and put the last nail in the Great Filter’s coffin, is just as likely to apply some Final Solutions to ensure that nothing and nobody (especially not the pesky mindless Great Unwashed) queers its pitch.
Just a happy thought.
@ Neo “And why were no links provided, or no abstracts?”
You answered your own question.
“Therefore there is no way to evaluate what they actually say or on what it is based, and no way to determine how well-designed they are.”
@geoffb:
Glad you like it!
Geoffrey Britain says mRNA vaccines offer extreme susceptibility to reinfection.
But examining the data reports elsewhere, such as this video blog and stats cited, do not support such an inference.
First of all, Gibraltar had 4300 Covid-19 infections but less than 100 deaths, recently.
Secondly, the report claims that the new variant infections affect about half unvaxed and half vaxed.
From the best data I’ve seen from the UK (two jabs 8 weeks apart) – compared with Israel (two jabs two to three weeks apart) – with mRNA vaccines are very different in their immunity fade from the latest COVID-19.
The latter’s reinfection rate fades in the fifth month after vaccination, while the former fade much more slowly. And that likely accounts for the alarm in Gibraltar.
Which is getting echoed from Israel to the US because Biden leadership failed to follow the UKs first vax first, second vax later strategy.
What I don’t know is which patter more closely mirrors natural immunity via infection? I believe it it’s the UKs second shot delay one.
And again. I believe that this difference accounts for the renewed alarm generally.
In New Zealand, widespread vaccination
Is now going ahead with a mere two week interval with Pfizer, heedless of the dramatic difference in protection failure it makes.
The government has already contracted for a third booster shot, making a total of 20 million doses for a nation of only 4 million (with 1 million in Australia).
THIS is public policy madness. Failure to learn from the epidemiology of success versus failure!
LINK missing – sorry!
https://youtu.be/nwQvbELdS3o