Where has all the flu gone?
First, the statistics:
Since the novel coronavirus began its global spread, influenza cases reported to the World Health Organization have dropped to minuscule levels. The reason, epidemiologists think, is that the public health measures taken to keep the coronavirus from spreading also stop the flu. Influenza viruses are transmitted in much the same way as SARS-CoV-2, but they are less effective at jumping from host to host.
That sounds logical – for about a second, until you think about it. If flu has fallen to almost zero for that reason, then why hasn’t COVID? Is flu that much more amendable to masks, distancing, and the like? And is that a known fact, or just a theory that is used to explain the huge difference in incidence this year?
“There’s just no flu circulating,” says Greg Poland, who has studied the disease at the Mayo Clinic for decades. The U.S. saw about 600 deaths from influenza during the 2020-2021 flu season. In comparison, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated there were roughly 22,000 deaths in the prior season and 34,000 two seasons ago.
There are lots of charts and graphs at the link. But the gist of it is that there doesn’t seem to be much if any flu anywhere.
So, what’s really going on? A lot of people think it’s that flu cases are occurring but are misdiagnosed as COVID. That would be possible except for one thing – some of these statistics are based on actual test of actual people, and such tests would reveal the difference between the two bugs. So I believe that, although that might explain some of it, there is something else that’s real going on here. .
There have been attempts to explain it, but they are at best guesses. One is that flu is more easily stopped by the measures that have been put in place for COVID, and although we don’t know that’s true it’s certainly possible. I’ve wondered for a while whether stopping flu – and the deaths it ordinarily causes – will be the next justification for universal and indefinitely-prolonged mask-wearing, distancing, and banning large functions except for left-wing demonstrations.
That article I just linked also says that children may be the main vector for spreading flu, and children haven’t been in school. Or have they? For example, France opened schools in May/June of 2020, and I recall that this sort of thing was true in much of Europe. I tried to find charts specific to Europe and/or to France that track influenza for 2020, and I’ve come up with nothing so far (if you can find some, please post the link), but my guess is that even after school began there were few cases.
Another possibility is that people who would ordinarily be especially susceptible to severe cases of flu – or deaths from it – were coming down with severe cases of COVID instead, and sometimes dying of it. Therefore COVID was culling the flu population. We really don’t know the incidence of mild cases of flu because they’re not ordinarily tested for flu, anyway.
Anyone have any other ideas?
Well, not every ‘case’ of COVID is based on a positive test, so there is that. Plenty of people have been assigned COVID positive because there was a family member or co worker or fellow nursing home resident that was positive.
The masking is the one thing that makes no sense. There is absolutely no correlation to masks causing COVID ‘cases’ to decrease. None.
Entirely explainable by the difference in transmission rates and the control measures. R0 for flu is around 1.3. R0 for Covid is around 2.5 minimum, higher for the new mutations. Any measure that cuts transmission by 2/3 will leave Covid circulating but wipe out flu.
Where does flu originate?
Has travel between the duck and carp pond lands and the rest of the world diminished?
Not certain of either answer or even the premiss.
But …
Another question is in the past (meaning before last year) how many of the flu ‘cases’ were actually lab confirmed and how many were presumed ‘cases’?
And of course there is the perverse incentive of giving money based on COVID ‘cases’ which was never done with the flu. How many flu ‘cases’ would we have had every year if the gov’t was giving hospitals cash for each one.
The data is utterly corrupted at this point.
R0 for Covid is around 2.5 minimum,
Did you check their work?
My (admittedly limited) understanding is essentially that yes, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is generally consirably more contagious than the various influenza viruses. Although the specific reasons for that being the case aren’t well understood.
Perhaps the exhaled aerosolized virus particles of SARS-CoV-2 simply hang in the air a bit longer than influenza because they’re lighter?
Or perhaps it takes a little longer for the SARS-CoV-2 to be denatured/destroyed/broken down outside a host than influenza viruses?
Perhaps more copies of SARS-CoV-2 are produced more quickly?
Or perhaps it’s just better at penetrating mucous membranes than influenza for whatever reason?
Neo:
https://tinyurl.com/4ccabf9n
That’s a link to the most recent issue of “Bulletin épidémiologique grippe, semaine 15. Bilan préliminaire. Saison 2020-2021.”
The data is for France, and it’s in French, but the graphs are easy to read and require little translation.
To view the report, you’ll need to download a pdf file. Not sure whether the graphs provide precisely what you want, but they’re in the ballpark. Short version: flu cases collapsed during 2020-2021 season.
My reading knowledge of French was pretty good in my childhood, but it’s now a distant memory. I didn’t try to translate word-for-word, so please accept my apologies, if I’ve mislead you.
Freudian slip?
;D
The powers that be aren’t interested in researching the covid diagnostic tests themselves. We’ve heard that due to their extreme sensitivity that patients with other types of coronavirus infections or influenza will show up as covid-positive. How frequent is this the case? We don’t know, and our elites have no interest in knowing.
They are going to use this narrative that “influenza has been wiped out” to push for permanent masking indoors. Going forward, you will be scorned for falling ill with a respiratory illness, to the point where you could be fired from your job since it was obviously your own fault as you shouldn’t ever get sick if wearing your paper mask properly.
About this time last year, I tried comparing the CDC numbers on flu and COVID 19 deaths. One of the things I found was that the CDC’s flu data isn’t based on hard numbers. They assume cases and deaths are undercounted, and use mathematical models to estimate what the actual numbers should be. I wasn’t able to find the math explained anywhere, though I admittedly didn’t look too hard. Anyway, one possible reason for low flu numbers now is they simply changed their formula
gmmay70:
Thanks, will fix.
Early on there were articles by doctors who claim to have been pressured to assign a COVID DC with or without a positive test. Anecdotally I know 2 people who have had 3 family deaths(2 MI’s and cancer)marked as COVID on their death certs.
Competition. Racism. One strain dominates progression, expression, and detection.
Diversity, perhaps. We know that the majority of people have preexisting immunity through cross-reactive t-cells.
Postoperative wound infections and surgical face masks: a controlled study
Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers
Accounting for chance and other factors, at best, flip a coin. At worst, progressive cases.
Could it be that catching COVID confers immunity to flu? I don’t know anything about immunology but I know a lot of words (crossword addict): I think “amendable” was meant to be “amenable”, right?
As baltimoron said, the flu numbers are themselves sketchy. We actually know very little about flu transmission, and “the flu” is a bunch of different viruses, including some coronaviruses. And most people probably don’t go to a doctor if they have the flu. The poor data could explain much, and some of these cases have to be getting diagnosed as covid–it’s not easy to test for all the flu strains, and I don’t think they usually do it. I’m sure some have been tested, but I doubt most are. And social distancing would decrease spread.
But mainly, I would think that a lot of flu deaths are essentially deaths to which the flu is a contributing factor. Those probably got marked as covid, and people susceptible to the flu likely got covid first. There was no reason for anyone to be trying to prove it was flu. Experts misrepresented their actual knowledge of viruses prior to covid, which is compounding the confusion.
It’s impossible to determine the truth of the matter. Given the deceit and lies, nothing the ‘authorities’ say can be believed.
As they famously listed Covid as the cause of death in a fatal motorcycle accident, there’s virtually no doubt that the majority of deaths from the flu were listed as Covid deaths.
Never underestimate the ‘persuasiveness’ of money with those for whom morality is ‘conditional’ and who justify lying and thievery as “for the greater good”.
Perhaps more copies of SARS-CoV-2 are produced more quickly? — Nonapod
I had read that this is true. If true, it should also show up in the R0, though I don’t suppose the two have a perfect correlation. I looked up info. on R0 several weeks ago and it seemed to be a mess. It’s either around 2.8 give or take, or around 5.9 give or take. What a joke.
My COVID quandary of late is the fomite issue, in the wake of Neo’s post on the topic. The CDC says both: 1) fomite infection is very rare, and 2) if you are living with an infected person you must disinfect surfaces regularly with a known anti-viral cleanser. Swell. Maybe they want to avoid some people starving to death because they might become too afraid of supermarkets and drive-throughs.
_____
Let’s say that you touch a surface and pick up a dose that is 50% influenza and 50% SARS-CoV-2. The SARS-CoV-2 outdoes the flu in reproduction rate, and the flu is overwhelmed by COVID in your body.
Alternatively, say you touch a surface a pick up 98% flu and 2% SARS-CoV-2 and you actually get sick with the flu. If the docs run a test on you it will be a COVID test and it will probably indicate positive. So now you officially have COVID-19 even though it is really the flu.
If you don’t buy the fomite issue, the above logic works with airborne droplets too, though not as well I suspect.
There was no reason for anyone to be trying to prove it was flu. — K
Yes, this ^. A different type of confirmation bias.
I’m also curious about the big Covid spike in India. It seems real. In fact worldwide it’s spiking close to the peak three months ago. A new variant?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
While in the US it’s bounced up some, but on the whole reduced, presumably because of the vaxx.
I haven’t been able to make much sense of Covid. I upped my vitamin D and started taking K. Otherwise I stopped paying much attention.
Three things mentioned by commentators above:
(1) Lower R0 –> social distancing, hygiene, masking stomps it dead. I get tired of people who say ‘masking no workee’. It absolutely helps reduce viral load in confined public spaces. It doesn’t do much to stop you inhaling what’s there, but surgical masks catch a good deal of what you exhale. x1,000 exhalers in a subway station and only an idiot would fail to grasp. I guess those idiots would complain if their surgical team wore masks when operating on them.
(2) China being closed off. Guangdong pig and duck farmers (same grotty Chinaman same shit-bespattered farm –> there’s your new annual flu variants) having to stay at home and being unable to gallivant around karaoke bars with floozies. Closer to the source you stomp on the vector, the more attenuation you get. Hell, just 1.4B normally uncouth Chinese being forced to adopt more Japanese levels of personal hygiene is likely to make a difference.
(3) What *is* flu anyway? Only the most severe cases get the full analysis treatment. Much of what we call flu is not. Now that there is big money in looking at every case with a cough, we’re not seeing what we wouldn’t see anyway. In a normal year when there isn’t a nasty swine or chicken flu variant killing huge numbers, what incentive is there for often government subsidised for the elderly flu vaccinating doctors and flu vaccine manufacturers to look too closely at just how much ‘real’ flu there is floating around?
And probably some mysterious X factor(s) we simply don’t know about. The depths of our ignorance remain unplumbed and this is not helped by excessive siloing and specialization in ‘Science’ today.
One way or another, Covid-19 has won the Viral Meme War for the present. Some folks unknown certainly deserve an Oscar.
Biden’s $1.8 trillion American Families Plan has a provision calling on the banks to report annual account inflows and outflows to the IRS so that they can target IRS audits more precisely. They are naturally trying to find unreported income.
See WSJ A4, 4/30/21
This smells. Banks are our agents, not the government’s. They are like hospitals. They are ethically required to keep our financial details to themselves. We pay them to do this. Surely this will be mercilessly called the Hunter Biden provision by our canny wits.
We are going to figure out ways to create our own money (e.g. digital bitcoins, etc.) if this keeps going.
To understand the paucity of influenza in the presence of a pandemic of Sars Cov 2,
look up the word interferon.
I guess those idiots would complain if their surgical team wore masks when operating on them.
Intuitive or cargo cult science. However, accounting for chance and other factors, masks do not, in fact, mitigate transmission, and no mask provides source control.
There is a theory I read once that said that humans actually need to contract a virus once in awhile to exercise their immune systems by giving them a “challenge”. The context in which I read this was a discussion of extended space flights and that we would have to deliberately release a new virus once in awhile to keep the crews healthy.
So, in the context of that theory (and I know that this may sound ridiculous) perhaps the flu is not active this year because it is not needed. Or, perhaps we are not as susceptible to the flu, because it is not needed.
I know that this implies some information exchange that borders on the metaphysical, but you did ask for theories, Neo… so you have only yourself to blame… 🙂
Deep background on viruses written in language accessible to laymen…
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200617-what-if-all-viruses-disappeared
“So, in the context of that theory (and I know that this may sound ridiculous) perhaps the flu is not active this year because it is not needed. Or, perhaps we are not as susceptible to the flu, because it is not needed.”
Could be. Might be. But how many of our Medical Researchers and Bugmen Overlords made it through Act 1 of Hamlet?
Anyway no immediate prospect of Grant Money in the investigation thereof. So that’s that.
“Bulletin épidémiologique grippe”
Maybe this is where the flu has gone???
https://greatreject.org/laboratories-cant-find-covid-19-in-positive-tests/
Ronbert
What a great handle. Dilbert, Dogbert, Catbert, Ronbert.
Ivar Cummings (sp?) had been tracking the UK numbers closely and pointed out the lack of flu in the past year as well. One theory he pointed out was that viruses compete and it’s not unusual for a new one to dominate and push out older species or variants. It might well be that COVID is pushing regular influenza out of the human niche.
Which would be good in that regular flues kill kids as well as the elderly, while COVID seems to prefer the latter.
Covid has blown my confidence that medical scientists have a pretty good idea how diseases work.
Huxley,
We have come a very long way since doctors applied leeches to people to bleed out the demons or “bad energy”, or whatever.
Nevertheless, we still have a long ways to go.