On post-COVID-vaccination positives
Several people mentioned this sort of report in the comments section:
Over 100 people in Washington state have tested positive for COVID-19 more than two weeks after becoming fully vaccinated against the disease, officials said.
The Washington State Department of Health is investigating reports of the so-called breakthrough cases, which it said are expected with any vaccine.
Out of the 1.2 million people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Washington, epidemiologists have reported evidence of 102 breakthrough cases in 18 counties since Feb. 1, representing less than 0.01% of all fully vaccinated individuals in the northwestern U.S. state. Most cases were patients who experienced only mild symptoms, if any, according to a press release from the Washington State Department of Health.
However, at least eight people with breakthrough cases have been hospitalized. The Washington State Department of Health is also investigating two potential breakthrough cases where the individuals died. Both patients were over 80 years old and suffered from underlying health issues.
One problem with articles like that is that a lot of people don’t do math very well. Another is that we have also been encouraged during the last year to want 100% protection from this disease even though that’s never been the case before with something like pneumonia or flu, both of which can also kill previously healthy people but are more likely to kill those with pre-existing health problems. So although the small number of breakthrough cases ought to be read as being reassuring, I think a sizeable number of people will find it alarming.
I’ll add that some of these cases may have involved people who were exposed to COVID before the vaccine took full effect, even though the positive test only occurred somewhat after that period. We don’t get much information about that. In addition, we don’t even learn whether those two people who died and were over 80 actually died of COVID rather than with COVID. What’s more, we may never know.
And then there’s the fact that the vast majority of those who tested positive post-vaccine had mild or no symptoms. Of course, that’s also true of COVID itself, even in the elderly.
The thrust of public health and federal government advice seems to be designed to get people to continue to act abnormally, masks and distancing and the like. Why? If vaccinated people are unlikely to ever get a serious case, they don’t need protection anymore. People who are not vaccinated are supposedly protecting themselves already. So I believe that the net result is that articles like this are more likely to engender fear than to reassure – both in the vaccinated and the un-vaccinated. I would wager that they discourage some people from ever getting vaccinated.
Even if COVID is mostly conquered – and I think we’re well on our way to that – some people may continue to die of it, just as they will continue to die of pneumonia or flu. Will the commands to mask up never end? It’s a very real possibility, now that government has been flexing its control muscles, and people have gotten used to the expectation of zero risk before we drop the supposedly protective actions to which we’ve grown accustomed.
Amazing.
Are we soon to be told that all those who received childhood vaccines for whooping cough, polio, diphtheria, tetanus, etc., should also be required to wear masks because, well, you may still get one of these ailments or a variation thereof?
So, is the diminutive IL DUCE, Anthony Fauci still strutting about wearing two? three? ten? masks, despite receiving the vaccine? The message this little dictator is sending is that vaccine or no vaccine, you have to wear a mask; because he says so.
“All within the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state.”
If you think most people don’t do math well, try statistics or, even worse, Bayesian Algebra. True positives, False positives, True negatives, False negatives. Understanding all medical tests requires some understanding of Bayes.
Slightly off-topic, but relevant, I think:
the results of a mini-study I just completed within the past hour.
Selected “Closed” Vs. “Open” States and Covid Deaths
I was wondering why there haven’t been any widely publicized studies of how relatively “open” states are doing with covid, compared with relatively “closed” states. So I did my own study, off-the-cuff. Being lazy, I chose only the four largest states by population: California and New York were and are states with very strict limitations on the people (“closed”), and Texas and Florida were and are states with much looser limitations on the people (“open”).
I included figures on the proportion of the states’ population that are elderly (65 years and over). CAUTION — there are many other factors to be considered, which my exercise is *not* taking into account: population demographics other than elderly; population density; use of public transportation; climate; urban/suburban/rural mix, to name just a few.
I used two different sources for covid deaths, just to verify that the two sources are compatible. This was borne out, allowing for tiny differences in reporting times and similar minutiae. Note that one source counts covid deaths per million population, while the other counts covid deaths per 100,000 population, so one set of four figures is going to be 10 times the other set of four figures.
I am leaving it to the reader to draw his/her own conclusions.
State Population, 2021
https://worldpopulationreview.com/states
California 39,747,267
Texas 29,087,070
Florida 21,646,155
New York 19,491,339
State 65+ Population, 2021
https://www.statista.com/statistics/736211/senior-population-of-the-us-by-state/
California 5,834,998
Texas 4,498,198
Florida 3,738,727
New York 3,295,968
Elderly Proportion of Population
Source: M J R Calculator
California 14.68%
Texas 15.46%
Florida 17.27%
New York 16.91%
STRICTER: California and New York
LOOSER: Florida and Texas
Covid Deaths Per Million Population
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
California 1513
Texas 1688
Florida 1570
New York 2621
Covid Deaths Per 100,000 Population
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
California 151
Texas 168
Florida 157
New York 261
Masking and social distancing will never end in our lifetimes and will likely continue until the sun starts to die in 5 billion years. Those in power will always be able to produce infection “surges” by messing with the sensitivity of the test and then attribute these false positives to new, more dangerous “variants”. Generation after generation of people will be raised to believe what the “experts” tell them, afraid to lose the last vestiges of personal freedom they are allowed.
A huge article could be written about the rise of safetyism and it’s convergence with a corrupt, power mad, incompetent leadership class.
There was a time only about 150 years ago or so when most people even Presidents and royalty had lost a child at young ages. It was sad but it was a part of life but as our society grew wealthier, healthier and safer it has also become obsessed with 100% safety.
Throw in a horrible educational system and here we are.
What Stremko said. However, the dam could possibly break if one state could take the plunge. Candidates most likely are FL, TX, and GA. While visiting FL a month and half ago despite there being no state wide mask mandate, we still had to put on our face diapers at every restaurant and stores. Until a business feels safe from covid liability being promoted by the government, there’s going to be masks.
BTW, the reason I include GA as a candidate is that state is doing amazing both in terms of deaths and, unlike other states, also “cases”. Both are now at levels last seen in that state around March 20 of last year. A few more weeks given the current data trend and the governor of GA could declare it totally over in GA. Not holding my breath though.
If masks are good and more masks are better, then a pillow worn over the face should be excellent!
In reference to Neo’s opening point and because I at least used to do math quite well, I’ll say: Bravo Moderna and Pfizer and Biontech! Hip Hip Hooray! What a smashing success.
I gnash my teeth when anyone tells me that I cannot resume anything approaching normal life because the vaccine is not 100% effective. I am sorry to say that it happens fairly often.
I also laugh sardonically. This morning I was on the SoCal freeways before dawn enroute to the bay for hours of (mostly fruitless) fishing from my kayak. Back on the same freeways about noon. Cruising about 75mph with the traffic flow, then dead stop. No slow down, just dead stop. Fortunately, neither I nor the driver behind me was texting.
Old friend just celebrated her 85th, and has worked hard to stay active. One recent morning her complexion was yellow–no warning. Pancreatic cancer. Now in hospice.
Ordinary life. No assurances. Of anything.
So California is going to lift most restrictions by June 15 but keep the mask mandate in effect.
Will the blue state people ever give up on this?
Will it eventually become something that is not followed by most people?
This really is going to be a big question going forward for sane people that just want to go the store without wearing a damn mask.
People don’t understand that approximately 1% of Americans die every 12 months. That is the baseline you have to understand right from the start. If you randomly pick 100 people for any given set- vaccinated, unvaccinated, with red hair, with no hair, etc.- statistically 1 of them will die within 12 months.
If we continue to test 1,500,000 people every single day using the RT-PCR test, or even the quick antigen test, you will get at least 1% false positives even if no one actually has COVID. This is 15,000 people/day, and of those 15,000, 150 of them will die within a year with a positive COVID test to put on the death certificate.
Even though all who know me know I had COVID last year and recovered without needing hospitalization all still repeat to me, zombie-like, “When will you be vaccinated?” First I say, “I’m in no hurry until all those at high risk in my state are vaccinated.” Often they reply, “You no longer have the anti-bodies.” Then I’ll reply with statistics pointing out that they don’t, actually know that (it is a “novel” virus, after all), and they don’t really mean anti-bodies (and I add some brief facts about anti-bodies and t-cells). Then almost all say, “You should get vaccinated.” Then I reply, “What does the vaccine do? Exposes your immune system to an inactive copy of the virus so your body learns what to do when exposed to the real thing. Well, I already did that, the hard way, and I have real world evidence that my body figured out what to do. How is that any different from being vaccinated and, even if I no longer have resistance, why would my body not react the same way a second time?”
You know what’s coming… They reply, “You should get vaccinated.”
Oldflyer,
Kayaking in the bay at dawn?! I am thoroughly envious! What kind of kayak do you have?
Thank you for that data, Yancey Ward.
Rufus, I have a Brooklyn kayak, pedal drive. It is a Chinese knock off of the Native Watercraft (which is probably made in China as well.) It is 1/2 the price of a Hobie; but serves me well.
I have fished from a kayak for many years. Rivers in Virginia. Six wasted years after I moved to SoCal because I thought I was too old, until my daughter gave me a Yak for my 83rd birthday to piddle around in. Flame rekindled; and I later upgraded from paddle to pedal. If that is an upgrade.
Medical people often ask “do you have any pain? Are you depressed”. Answer is yes/yes. I am approaching my 86the birthday; and I have been depressed since 11/4/2020. (They don’t laugh at the second answer. Sometimes they laugh when I respond to the very silly question, “on a scale of 1 to 10 rate your pain” with a definitive “1. 7 on a good day, 3.26 on a not so good day”.) Being on the water is great therapy for either condition..
If I were to give one bit of unsolicited advice to anyone, of any age. Never think you are too old before you have tried what you want to do. So many wasted years.
I am getting tired of the mask, and if only we had a more rational governor in NC, we could get rid of the state mandate. Deaths are down to levels like last April, a mere fraction of the winter daily death rate, and I take that to include influenza, since I do not believe the flu virus suddenly disappeared this past winter.
We went so quickly from flattening the curve to prepare the hospitals and protecting the vulnerable to the impossible goal of preventing anyone from ever getting this virus.
Oldflyer,
Your story is wonderful!
I hadn’t heard of the Brooklyn so I just did some research. I have a Hobie Tandem Island with the mirage “pedal” drive. I have been very impressed with it. I just watched a video where a competitive fisherman compares the two pedal systems. His opinion was the Brooklyn is better for fishing in non-grassy areas because one can instantly reverse, but the Hobie is better when you may get beached or pushed ashore, or in grass. The Hobie is apparently also faster and a bit quieter. I know I have been very impressed and surprised by the speed of the Hobie drive. However, looking at the Brooklyn I like that one completely rotates one’s feet, as on a traditional bicycle. The Hobie drive is a pumping motion. I think I’d prefer full rotation. He also indicated the Brooklyn drive is a bit bulkier to store than the Hobie.
I love kayaking. Fishing is very therapeutic, but I enjoy kayaking and sailing so much I don’t bother to bring a pole. I fished a great deal as a boy but I’m not sure I’ve spent more than 10 minutes with a pole in the water since I was about 17. However, I imagine I will get back into it when I get a bit older.
I also have a 17′ Perception Eclipse sea kayak (paddle only, no pedals). I’ve had it 27 years and it is still in great shape. It has been a wonderful boat.
What you’re doing at your age is amazing and wonderful! Lugging a kayak around and launching it and getting in and out of it requires coordination, balance and strength.
Rufus and OldFlyer – So both of you live by the adage “a bad day fishing is better than a good day in the office.”
As I tell people over and over in person and in blogs. “A virus is going to do what as virus does, spread until it burns out.” You take steps to minimize the quantity of people infected at a time until herd immunity is reached. Because masks and lockdowns only prolong the spread it just keeps on coming. This virus also appears more contact spread than aerosol. So what happens when you touch your mask? You touch your face. I distinctly remember Birx giving lessons on how to put and take off a mask and you were ALWAYS suppose to disinfect each time. But people got lazy with the “false” security of the face diaper. Also lockdowns stopped people from going outside where sunlight kills all viruses. We put an Ebola response to a flu pandemic and common people suffered and suffering still.
We were lead down the rosy path of safteyism by incompetent and/or malignant people. So many people are stunned when I tell them that the US under foolish Fauci funded the gain of function research at Wuhan after Congress banned it in the US. So he aided in the death of hundred of thousands of American.
Finally, the media is filled with ignorant people who don’t know how to do their jobs. They get their data from Twitter and DNC and regurgitate. And the respondents are stupid for not asking them to do their research and report back. A good example is to ask them who the news outlet statistic expert and if they consulted with them what the numbers mean before asking their regurgitation. If they didn’t consult the expert, then tell them to go talk to the expert and when they can frame an intelligent question then you will answer it.
Staying on the media angle, DeSantis hinted at some reprisal against CBS 60 Minutes Hit piece. The environment is ready for such an action. The groundwork has been prepared. I hope he goes forward.
A bit of fatalism is a comfort for a Christian and an old soldier.
The AUTHORITIES are one thing. But the folks flunked out of HOA academies for being insufficiently annoying are glorying in the opportunity to “Karen” right, left, and continuous.
And there are the people who have to be doing SOMETHING! because not doing SOMETHING! means one is helpless about one’s fate. That’s scary. And the more restrictive and inconvenient, the better it must be. Nobody trusts a medication that tastes good, right?
Point is, whatever the AUTHORITIES want to do about easing up is one thing but the Karens will resist. Insist on stores maintaining mask requirements. Require schools to mask distance, and wipe down between classes. They may or may not prevail but they’re a considerable weight on the scale.
I have an unwell relative and am in Arizona for the moment. I am pleased to note that in the last few days here, I have seen two chain establishments with “mask recommended” signs on the door (instead of “mask required”) and am hearing first-hand reports of some stores removing mask signs altogether. I have walked into places in which not one person – customer or employee – is wearing a mask. People wearing a mask outside are so rare as to be worthy of stares.
In places like where I am staying, the tide is clearly turning. It’s as sane as things have seemed in months.
Yancey Ward: great comment about 1% annual attrition plus false positives = irreducible fear factor. The general public has no “feel” for numbers and has been sold on Safetyism (great coinage, that). The combination of fearmongering and ignorance is exactly what is desired by unscrupulous politicians (but I repeat myself). The same pathology is evident in “climate change.” I have watched that topic go from silly to insane, with ever more 000’s on the $pending, over the past 20-odd years. I kept waiting for the public to wake up and walk away from the repeated failures, hysteria and hyperbole. I waited in vain.
So, returning to Neo’s question —“ Will the commands to mask up never end?”— I fear that for too many of our countrymen the answer is “Never.”
Rufus T. Firefly & Oldflyer
I have a Hobie Adventure Island (single seat version of the Tandem Island) and a Hobie Revolution 13. My wife has a Hobie Pro Angler 12. She has caught Coho from hers. I built stands for them from PVC and I just today moved them out winter storage into the yard. The Revo 13 is like a sports car very fast and maneuverable and of course the Adventure Island just screams with both pedal and sail going.
Well to the poor fearful mask-o-phillics; bless their hearts, lord love a duck.
KyndallG that is good news from AZ; hope your relative is well soon.
Never a day I don’t learn something here. Pedal Kayaks! Had no idea. Excellent idea though.
@Yancey Ward:
All correct. And also why I’ll be reading Mark Twain and Mencken until my dying day. Not all types of Booby run any risk of becoming extinct. Best to remind oneself regularly.
I echo Mike+K and add that mass numerical illiteracy is the greatest man-caused disaster of our times. It may do us in yet.
KyndallG, I’ll echo om’s comment about the good news coming out of AZ. If businesses feel secure enough from lawsuits to go from “masks required” to “masks recommended” then we should see many people abandoning masks quickly. Just surprised it’s AZ and not FL or TX. I know here in CT many people are very tired and also wondering if we have so many vaccinated why are the restrictions in place. As we prepare our house for sale, we’ve had various contractors over, 3 months ago they would all show up with masks on, last few weeks they don’t and then ask if we want them to put on a mask. Quiet resistance.
Heading to FL in about 5 weeks and it will be interesting to see if anything has changed there. I know Universal and Disney require 100% masks even outside; if they start changing then others will follow. But again they are big targets for liability suits.
Chases Eagles,
A friend has an Adventure Island and I sailed it one day. It was great fun! Mine does well with two (or three with one switching sides on the tarps), but with only one the front and back seats are a little off, weight-wise, in high winds.
Zaphod, the Brooklyn system Oldflyer has spins a propeller, like a regular boat. The Hobie system moves two fins perpendicularly. They are modeled on penguin flippers. It works surprisingly well.
I remember King Cuomo last year saying “If it saves just one life” then lockdowns are worth it. That is such nonsense! There will never be 100% protection for anything. The other day there was a story about a woman who developed a mild case of COVID-19 despite getting her second Moderna vaccine. It turned out before she was vaccinated with the second shot she was with three family members who were COVID positive. Of course the article failed to mention that Moderna is considered to be 94.5% effective. There are powerful people in government and the media who want this ‘pandemic’ to go on and on. Life is full of risks- and nobody gets out alive – and people have to decide for themselves which ones are worth taking in their own lives
There’s no official mask mandate in Texas, but some businesses still require one. I’ve taken to wearing a mask indoors only if someone bothers to come and ask me to do so, in which case I comply cheerfully. I figure they’ll eventually get tired of asking. In the meantime I prefer businesses that are more sensible. The ones that continue to impose masks long past the point of rationality will gradually lose customers to those that don’t.
There appears to be no point at all in arguing with someone about masks. It’s like arguing about astrology. That doesn’t mean I have to believe in it, though. We both got vaccinated months ago, so I don’t feel I pose an unreasonable risk to anyone, nor do I feel at risk myself. Is it zero risk? No, nor is anything we do, including driving into town for groceries. A 5% chance of a nasty hospitalization, and even a 0.5% chance of dying there alone, though a small risk, was enough to get my attention and inspire me to limit social contact–easy enough anyway, for an introvert. 5% of that small chance? No, I decline to turn my life upside-down over it.
The new governor of Montana tested positive for Covid a few days after getting his first shot.
“The new governor of Montana tested positive for Covid a few days after getting his first shot.”
So as I hear about these sort of “cases” (our famous BB coach Geno Auriemma tested positive a few days after his 2nd. Never had any symptoms and was a result of NCAA requiring testing *every* day), I begin to wonder how much these tests are picking up false positives due to increased antibodies as a reaction to the vaccine? I’ve never heard of anyone getting tested for measles a few days after getting a measles vaccine which would surely lead to a “positive” result. Basic common sense and biology have been thrown out the window….par for the course this past year.
The Red Cross has interests in safety of the blood supply, obtaining plasma from donors who have recovered from the China virus (CCP19) for therapeutic use, safety of their personnel, not eliminating donors due to false positives, and also maintaining a supply of blood products. Consequently, if you donate blood, plasma, or platelets your donation is tested and your result is posted in about 5 or 6 days. Also you have to tell them if you have had a China virus (CCP19) vaccination before you donate. Well the Red Cross has four classifications of China virus (CCP19) results – result pending, positive, negative, and wait for it,”reactive.”
“Reactive” indicates a test result confirming vaccination, NOT indicating infection with the virus. Funny that the Red Cross could figure this out but our press and government can’t.
physicsguy:
I don’t have time to look it up right now, but I recall that the antibody test that is used in order to find out whether someone has COVID measures a different type of antibody/defense that would be activated by the vaccine, so it can be differentiated from a vaccine reaction.
Also, if someone has a positive COVID antibody result a few days after a first shot, the shot really hasn’t taken protective effect yet, so the positive test doesn’t reflect on the efficacy of the shot at all.
I have a very large family – many brothers and sisters with married kids of who have their own children – and no one in my very large family has died of COVID. Including my dad in his 90s.
I run a business and no employees who have contracted COVID have died – all bounced back well.
None of my many customers have died – though a few were out for some time recovering.
In short, I know no one – of the many hundreds of people in my circle – who has died from COVID.
Someone I know well died last week from the vaccine.
OriginalFrank:
When millions and millions of people receive a vaccine, a certain percentage will die not all that long after receiving it. That means they died after the vaccine, but it does not mean they died from the vaccine.
One way a person can die from the vaccine is to have a violent allergic reaction shortly afterward, and not get quick treatment for it. When the vaccines are administered, people are supposed to wait there for 15 minutes to a half-hour to make make sure medical people are around if that happens, and they can offer drugs to counteract the effect. Such an allergic reaction is extremely rare, and can occur after other vaccines, drugs, ingesting certain foods, being stung by a bee, and any number of other things.
The statistic that matters is whether the number of deaths after the vaccine is greater than the number of deaths in the same population under ordinary circumstances. There is no evidence that that is the case with the COVID vaccine.
I know elderly people who died of COVID while in nursing homes. I know a young person who got very very ill from it and was hospitalized for quite some time. I know quite a few other people who had it and recovered.
Neo,
Thank you for your personal response! Very thoughtful as always.
My point was not that COVID deaths do not happen – an employee reported to me that two acquaintances *did* pass away so I have second order knowledge of it happening.
Also, it’s certainly true that a death after a vaccine is not necessarily a result of the vaccine. However, in this case, the reaction was initially and visibly localized to the site of the injection, then spread rapidly. The friend developed pneumonia soon after and was ultimately placed on a ventilator, then passed away.
My post was simply to report that in the very large circle of my personal acquaintances, the score is COVID: 0, Vaccine: 1.
YMMV, of course.
“If businesses feel secure enough from lawsuits to go from “masks required” to “masks recommended” then we should see many people abandoning masks quickly.” – physicsguy
I think that all the states (and the federal government, if we had a sane administration), should make masking liability dependent solely on if the business is “in conformance with current state/federal mandates,” that is, obedience to the (tyrannical but so far accepted) commandments of the Ruling Class should be a positive bar to lawsuits from people who get sick sometime after patronizing a commercial venue.
First, the knee-jerk reaction is always to sue, the bigger the pocket the better; BUT
Second, while it may be possible to pinpoint a source of infection, that’s not the fault of the business unless they are permitting known (or reasonably suspected) infected employees to come to work (in which case normal tort rules would apply, I imagine); AND
Third, masks don’t work in the overwhelming majority of situations anyway.
This just shows that a lot of positives are false positives, as many people have asserted for a long time.
The CPR test doesn’t actually test whether you’re infected, only if any virus particles (or even fragments of virus particles) exist in your nasal cavity.
As simply having virus particles in your nasal cavity doesn’t mean you’re infected, this leads to a lot of false positives, which are explained away as “non-symptomatic sick people”, which is utter bollocks but is perfect for giving governments an excuse to extend lockdowns as those are justified by the high number of infections, not the high number of dangerously ill people.
Great news from my area …
“Southeast Texas hospitals preparing to close COVID-19 units as hospitalization rate declines”
“Hardin County ending vaccine hubs soon with shots administered at Health Department”
And as neo says … I don’t give a rats patootie. I’m going to Florida sometime next week. Take that Dr Fouci … and CDC!
Liberals Are Really Going to Hate Ron DeSantis Over Florida’s Latest COVID Benchmark
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2021/04/13/liberals-are-really-going-to-hate-ron-desantis-over-floridas-latest-covid-benchmark-n2587825