McConnell’s strategy?
I know just about everybody loves to bash McConnell. He’s not my favorite guy either, but one thing I’ve learned over the years that he’s been in power positions in the Senate is not to sell him short (hmmmm – in light of GameStop, now I suddenly notice what that phrase actually means) on tactics. I’m always reading how he’s stabbing us all in the back, but I also notice that he sometimes actually outwits the Democrats.
So I at least entertain the notion that this is the case:
…[F]ormer Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell demanded as a condition of reaching a power-sharing agreement with Democrats that the new Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer promise to keep the filibuster in place. This was never a serious threat because any such promise was unenforceable; Schumer could agree to it and then break the deal the moment Republicans filibustered something the Democrats passionately cared about passing.
Yet if the goal of McConnell’s gambit was to preserve the filibuster, it must be judged a smashing success. That’s because by forcing the issue right up front, McConnell prompted two Democrats — West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema — to state forthrightly on the record that they have no intention of supporting the elimination of the filibuster, now or in the future.
Not only does that mean the left’s plan is dead in the water. It also means that McConnell has already called Schumer’s bluff in advance, preventing him from using the threat of eliminating the filibuster as leverage to persuade Republicans not to use it to slow down or scuttle legislation Democrats favor.
I don’t agree with that last paragraph. I don’t think the left’s plan is dead in the water, and I think it’s dangerous to think so. I think this is only one skirmish in a lengthy war. The Republicans’ position isn’t good now, and I’ve not been especially impressed by the ability of the GOP to fight anyone nearly as hard as the left does. But that doesn’t mean they don’t fight at all, and it certainly doesn’t mean both parties are exactly alike (that’s an idea I’ve been fighting here for just about as long as I’ve been blogging).
The author of that piece also mentions that there are Democratic voters who are not fully onboard with the left. True, but do you think the left actually gives a rat’s patootie about what the voters want, if it can fool them as to what will happen once those voters cast their votes for them? Yes, the left does care about how much of its hand to tip in advance, because it doesn’t want to scare those voters away by letting them know what’s in store for them. That’s the main reason Joe Biden was selected as the Democratic candidate this year – he had the best chance of confusing the public as to what on earth he was planning to do (Biden himself may be a bit confused on that, too, but no matter because I doubt he’s calling the shots these days).
I have been deeply anxious about the filibuster for almost a year now, ever since the COVID fallout endangered Trump’s and the GOP’s election chances. I feared that the Democrats would control both houses and the presidency after the election, and that eliminating the filibuster was the first order of business on their agenda after the new administration and legislatures were in place.
Once Manchin and Simena made their declarations, my anxiety ratcheted down a notch or two. It’s not that I trust they will keep their word. But I think they might, if only for the sake of self-interest because they don’t want to commit political suicide.
I’ll take it, for now.
Manchin seems to enjoy the position in which he now finds himself, but it is unlikely that he will stand against his party. Sinema is relatively young and perhaps not strong enough to withstand the pressure which will certainly be brought to bear against her. Leftists now feel so emboldened that they can sense, for the first time ever, that complete and utter control of every institution and of every center of power is now within their grasp, the recent arrest by the FBI of a Twitter troll for having posted silly memes prior to the 2016 election being but the latest manifestation of the full weight of the leftist state apparatus brought down upon a perceived enemy.
I trust very few people at this point, and almost no one that I don’t know personally. I would not call Manchin a snake, but I might call him a chameleon. He will troll the idea of defying the Democrats to the extent that he thinks he has to in order to fool West Virginia voters; but, I have no confidence that he will stay the course. I know nothing of the other one.
My one hope, one week after inauguration, is that the Democrats have become so giddy with power that they will alienate the masses; i.e., those who actually have to work for a living, or those who are on fixed income retirement. They are off to a good start on that in a variety of ways. Not only are they over reaching on some bread and butter issues like energy, but they have already forgotten promises; e.g., next COVID checks are high priority.
McConnell’s a great parliamentarian but he’s been in the Senate since 1985, been a GOP Senate leader since 2003, and was Majority Leader for six years. In that time, what POLICY achievements can we credit to McConnell? He may have slowed down the Democrats doing bad stuff, but what positive things has he accomplished?
Mike
Bidet will do whatever he wishes to do, irrespective of what Congress or the dumbpublicans desire.
If he gets the dumbpublicans to go along, fine.
If not, he will simply rule by executive order (EO) or have the many federal agencies issue new rules/regulations to implement Obama’s agenda.
When the IRS, EPA, DHS, et. al. are mobilized to issue edicts, it becomes the law; no US Congress needed. The dumbpublicans can literally go F themsevles; they are meaningless, a joke.
You can count on the dumbpublicans from formally challenging any EO by taking it to the SCOTUS; the dumbpublicans are more interested to appearing to be bi-partisan.
Obama was an expert at using the EO to implement his policies and to “go around” existing laws and avoid any congressional resistance.
Of course, he got away with it because the stupid, incompetent, moronic dumbpublicans were to busy bending over for the dems.
Any notion that the dems believe in “bipartisanship” is held only by those folks who literally are living in a dream world.
The demonkrats do not need the dumbpublicans to agree to anything at all.
When a nation is a left wing oligarchy, it’s one party rule; no different than the former USSR or present day Cuba or Venezuela or China.
Welcome to the BRUSA – the banana republic of the USA>
But will Romney and other “Romney”s vote with the Republicans?
Remember that in 2022 more Rep Senators are up for reelection that Dems. The shift could be enough for Schumer to get what he wants. And of course President Harris what she wants.
M J R:
I have wondered about that, but I will go out on a frail limb to say I don’t think there’s a Republican who would vote to end the filibuster while the Democrats are in control. Not even Romney. Much of his voting with the Democrats has been specific to revenge on Trump, and this issue doesn’t have to do with that.
I forget who mentioned several posts ago. (Whoever it was take a bow.)
McConnell is tactically adept and strategically inept. He is an institutionalist who wants to maintain. You can argue the confirming of judges is geared towards maintaining those with an institutionalist bent (Federalist Society). Robert Barnes doesn’t think much of these judges as they scuppered Trump chance to be heard in court.
When the Tea Party was in full force, McConnell did bring up a good point about candidates being electable. He had a good rundown of several Senate races where a Tea Party favorite but a non-viable general election candidate held back the Republican Party. Christine O’Donnell being the most cited example. The Republican Party had a real shot at that seat but she crashed and burned when some of her prior views and posts became public.
This is a good point to keep in mind for the populists. We have to carefully vet the candidates we back in the primaries. An example is Melissa Carone, a current crowd favorite as she is passionate, outspoken and gives as good as she gets. She has announced she is running for state legislature and would be a favorite to win the primary. However she has a messy personal life that can be exploited if she isn’t prepared to answer it succinctly. It can be done just look at Donald Trump. She will have to get ahead of it by discussing it on her terms.
That is one of the points I make with my fellow band of travelers as we prepare for the 2022 election where we have to fight Frau Whitmer and her band of Soros handmaidens. The process has started and I am gearing up to make a difference.
John Tyler,
Yes, of course Biden will use executive orders very often, whenever he can. He already has. But he can’t do everything that way unless SCOTUS lets hm. If the Democrats succeed in packing SCOTUS, then there’s no chance (IMHO) that SCOTUS will stop him. With the filibuster still in place, however, if the Democrats don’t succeed in packing SCOTUS, then Biden has a chance of being more limited in what he can do. SCOTUS has been a big disappointment in the election cases, but these issues would be harder for them to duck, and it still is the case that the right has the majority on the Court.
The benefit of the filibuster to Manchin, assuming he wants to remain in politics after his current term, as opposed to becoming a lobbyist, is that it allows him to avoid taking hard votes on measures unpopular with his constituents. Cloture votes don’t attract nearly the attention than actual votes on the substance of bills.
neo: “I’ve not been especially impressed by the ability of the GOP to fight anyone nearly as hard as the left does.”
Reading along I was expecting:
I’ve not been especially impressed by the ability of the GOP to fight anyone nearly as hard as they fight their own conservative base.
MBunge; I am Spartacus:
The first two years McConnell was Majority Leader, Obama was president and could veto anything McConnell managed to pass. Here’s a list of what Obama vetoed. During that session, the Republicans had 54 votes in the Senate, but quite a few of those votes were RINOs and it wasn’t easy to do much about that.
The next session – the first two years of Trump’s presidency – the veto problem was now gone, and the GOP still controlled the House, so there was the promise of passing legislation. However, the GOP lead in the Senate was even narrower (51 and 52, depending) and so the RINO question loomed very very large. McCain was still around, and in particular he stymied and shafted McConnell and the GOP in their attempts to replace Obamacare.
Here you can see an overview of the bills passed in those first 2 years of the Trump administration, to refresh your memory. The biggest thing that was passed was about tax cuts and repealing the Obamacare tax:
Also of course McConnell’s efforts regarding judicial confirmations.
Starting in the Congress installed in early 2019, McConnell was dealing with a Democratic House, so most of his task was to block the legislation they submitted that was unacceptable. He accomplished that.
Neo:
“But he can’t do everything that way unless SCOTUS lets him.”
True, very true.
But somebody has to bring the case before the SCOTUS to be adjudicated.
During the Obama admin, when he issued an EO OVERTURNING established law re: immigration , the republicans did ZERO.
And that is a big problem; the republicans do not fight; they acquiesce, they just accept, they just go into the corner and place dunce caps atop their heads and await further instructions from their demokrat party puppeteers.
Bidet has so far issued a bunch of EOs – and this is just a start. Of those he has issued, how many have the republicans decided to bring before the SCOTUS or even to stridently object to??
Maybe I have not been paying attention, but I have not heard one, NOT ONE serious objection (i.e. not just talk) to any of Bidet’s EOs from the republicans, much less a threat to take any of this to the SCOTUS.
You would think that Bidet’s destruction of thousands of well paying, permanent , skilled jobs in the oil/gas industry – destroyed as a result Keystone Pipeline’s cancellation – would have made for a very formidable and important topic that ALL the republicans (and maybe even 2 demokrats in all of congress; OK, maybe just one) could have rallied around and showed the citizenry that it’s republicans who really care about providing/maintaining jobs.
But no; just some inconsequential small talk objections from the republicans.
When the the minority “opposition” party to the dominant political party in power refuses to act , you have for all intents and purposes a one party state.
I certainly hope you are correct and I am wrong, but I am not holding my breathe.
Neo –
McConnell has been in the Senate since 1985. 35 YEARS! He’s been a GOP leader in the Senate since 2007. 13 YEARS! And according to you, he’s produced nothing on..
Trade.
Immigration.
Abortion.
Cutting spending.
School choice.
Wall Street.
Big tech.
Energy production.
Environmental regulation.
Campaign finance.
Entitlement reform.
And nothing on health care other than repealing the Obama mandate.
And, of course, let’s remember all that sterling and inspiring leadership McConnell has shown in areas of foreign policy on stuff like the Iraq War and China. Oh…wait. He’s shown basically NO leadership on anything like that.
And you might want to check out how many of the losing GOP Senate candidates in 2020 were McConnell’s picks.
Mike
We discover that Mike doesn’t have Mitch McConnell as a BFF. Astounding. So what else is new? Should Mtich McConnell switch and become a Democrat Mike, would that make him worse? Other than being angry what is you plan? If only Mitch was Mike it would all be well?
Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side, keep on the sunny side of life …
You know the song?
MBunge:
What is he supposed to “produce” if he doesn’t have the votes for it?
As I’ve said before, McConnell’s not someone I think is doing everything I’d like. In fact, I think he’s a singularly uninspiring leader. But to complain that he hasn’t actually accomplished things that he didn’t have the votes to accomplish seems illogical to me.
And you might want to check out how many of the losing GOP Senate candidates in 2020 were McConnell’s picks.
OT, why should the floor leader in the federal legislature be picking candidates? I hear that McCarthy is admired because of his skills at candidate recruitment and fundraising. Don’t we have state parties to recruit candidates? Don’t we have this outfit called ‘the Republican National Committee’?
Just from the gut here, the public commentary of McConnell and his wife over the last three weeks has been mendacious and revolting.
By the way, you’ve forgotten how McConnell went out of his way to allow the Export-Import Bank to continue in operation. Ted Cruz pointed out the scamming around on the floor of the Senate. The GOP Senate caucus is too refractory to pass any salutary legislation, but they can manage to keep the corporate welfare flowing.
McConnell has been in the Senate since 1985. 35 YEARS! He’s been a GOP leader in the Senate since 2007.
Yep. In the last century, only one GOP floor leader has had a longer tenure (Joseph Martin, House GOP floor leader from 1939 to 1959). He’s also 78 years old. He’s collected government salaries for 47 of the last 53 years. He’s got a handsome pension due and his wife’s got an 8-digit net worth. So, why not be sensible and close the books on this chapter of his life? Does he fancy he’s irreplaceable?
Here’s a puzzle: how is it that none of his three daughters share his supposed viewpoint? How is it that two of the three haven’t the grace and loyalty to him to keep their own counsel? What happened there?
So what else is new? Should Mtich McConnell switch and become a Democrat Mike,
How about retire? Works for most people at age 78.
He had a good rundown of several Senate races where a Tea Party favorite but a non-viable general election candidate held back the Republican Party. Christine O’Donnell being the most cited example.
I think it’s a reasonable inference that Miss O’Donnell is not 100% upstairs and does not belong in any sort of position where you interact with people. That aside, how was it that Michael Castle managed to lose a primary election to a childless spinster (in that state in spite of being blessed by nature) who had a spotty job history, a wretched credit history, an unfinished college degree, and quondam neighbors who were willing to say for attribution that she allowed her property to rot to such a degree that there were knock-on effects on their own property (rodent infestations, &c)? Note, having blown it, he gracelessly refused to endorse her in the general election. How much of his ‘electability’ had been based on never being vigorously challenged in Delaware’s torpid political environment? (Note, if he had been elected, he wouldn’t have been any more reliable than Susan Collins).
Food for thought, Sundance’s interpretation of McConnell’s modus operandi over the last 14 years.
Art Deco:
Retire? He just won reelection, but you know that. Senators retire for many reasons I assume, is age a common one?
Senators retire for many reasons I assume, is age a common one?
You fancy they only retire to avoid corruption charges, or in response to offers from lobbying firms, or because they’re voted out?
Sinema has been surprisingly less awful than she was portrayed in the conservative press during her campaign. I have a better feeling about her sticking to what she says than I do Manchin — although if he voted to blow up the filibuster, he might as well stay in Washington and not go home to W.VA. Plus, with two of them, the pressure on each is somewhat reduced.
To this layman, the linked article below makes a persuasive case for McConnell having good leverage to keep the democrats from deep sixing the filibuster.
“McConnell warns of ‘scorched-earth, post-nuclear Senate,’ promises ‘nightmare’ if Dems end filibuster”
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mcconnell-warns-of-scorched-earth-post-nuclear-senate-promises-nightmare-if-dems-end-filibuster
Here’s the tactic that would allow McConnell to block legislation;
Recent events have led to me refining my view of McConnell and the GOPe. I no longer think that the GOPe never fights the democrats. They do fight the democrats… but selectively…
IMO, they do so when it benefits them and their big donors.
Whether directly or when retaining their leverage is threatened, such as with the filibuster, it is in situations such as that when McConnell and the GOPe are willing to draw a line in the sand.
Even a rat will fight for its crumb off the floor.
It will be a study of equilibrium. Poor Mitch might have achieved his best possible result, but it still isn’t worth much. Manchin and Sinema will bask in the glow of being in the swing position, but they won’t stand against the full force of the Democratic Party Machine when its focus brought to bear on bothersome individuals standing in the way Something More Important. All that’s needed for their salvation is a good excuse for the voters. So – my prediction is, the equilibrium will shift on the first or second big fight, and the filibuster will be history. Watch for the announcement on a Friday afternoon.
Art Deco:
I didn’t pose any fancy, it was an invitation for you to do your typical analysis, in this case of the retirement ages of various and sundry senators in the last 30, 50, 100 years and why each retired. If you have better things to do I don’t mind.
“several Senate races where a Tea Party favorite but a non-viable general election candidate”
I’m not advocating whacko candidates but I do want to note that Dems support theirs. Examples will occur to you–the new guy from GA, the guy who claimed he was a Vietnam veteran, and others.
And also note that once in office these whack-a-doodles behave and do what they’re told. Electing a whack-a-doodle doesn’t always mean that DC tips over and falls into the Potomac. Sometimes it’s not the end of the world. Repubs should look at the idea clear-eyed without emotion (“that’s not who we are”) and consider the big picture.
I’m not advocating whacko candidates but I do want to note that Dems support theirs. Examples will occur to you–the new guy from GA, the guy who claimed he was a Vietnam veteran, and others.
Kevin McCarthy shivved the non-wacko Steve King. One reason I’ll never much care for McCarthy.
“Reading along I was expecting:
I’ve not been especially impressed by the ability of the GOP to fight anyone nearly as hard as they fight their own conservative base.” – JimNorCal
This.
Maybe some of those “unelectable” Tea Party candidates who weren’t“nut cases” (most of them, despite John McCain’s opinion) could have won with some more backing from the RNC.
I never contribute to the GOP-as-a-party, just to individual candidates.
And don’t get me started on the Republicans who publicly bad-mouthed the Tea Party itself, or proved themselves Democrats-in-GOP-clothing all too often.
AesopFan – “Maybe some of those “unelectable” Tea Party candidates who weren’t “nut cases” (most of them, despite John McCain’s opinion) could have won with some more backing from the RNC.
I never contribute to the GOP-as-a-party, just to individual candidates.”
Last point first. – I agree. I will not contribute to the GOPe but to candidates I like and support. But I will spend time helping the GOP infrastructure.
Candidate selection is so important. Right now there is an elected representative from Georgia who is a few bubbles off center, Taylor Greene. In the hostile environment we are in, big media/social media will use her statements to tar us as holding the same views. There is no mention in big media of all Democrats believing Ilan Omar’s statement “on 9/11 some people did something”. Though we can use that phrase as a comeback to charges of QANON belief.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/marjorie-taylor-greene-qanon-wildfires-space-laser-rothschild-execute.html
This is why we have to vet our primary candidates.
This goes to the Strategic Ineptness of McConnell. He always back incumbents no matter how bad they are. The two Georgia Senators particularly Loeffler who is married to the owner of the NY Stock Exchange. Martha McSally of Arizona TWICE??!! Cory Gardner was cooked and should have been replaced. Hickenlooper was not a shoo in with someone who could take the fight to him on his record particularly his COVID response. Look how the Democrats replaced Torricelli in New Jersey when he was going down in flames. He likes a particular type of Republican who are smooth and urbane. So he booted his majority chances.
Upon reflection there is one incumbent senator he would like to replace…..Rand Paul.
So I do agree he has to work hard to hold a fractious caucus together and a lot of work was towards blocking bad legislation. But when he did have a chance to do something he didn’t. He is a creature of the swamp and a devotee of Big Government, Big Business, Big Finance and shipping middle class jobs overseas. He also stymied Trump with many of his appointments. We only got Radcliffe as DNI because Trump temporarily assigned Grinnell as DNI and he was causing the insiders to actually confront the double game they were playing with Trump. Outside of the judge confirmation process, McConnel has not helped the Republican Party increase their standing or majority. He is a caretaker of a process that he developed his trade and standing. That doesn’t necessarily help the Republican Party and individual liberty.
Tactically adept but Strategically inept.
McConnel Is more a chamber of commerce partner…
Kim Strassel at the WSJ points out that Democrats may try to push their agenda through by loading non-budgetary provisions onto “budget” bills in “reconciliation.” This is prohibited by the Byrd provision, named after the senator whose seat Manchin holds. Basically, Democrats, supported by Harris in the chair, could vote to override the parliamentarian’s ruling that the add-on items are not budgetary. Sinema and Manchin will need to vote against that, too. We’ll see.
Kate the Democrats do what they need to do to obtain their goals. Like the bandit in “Treasure of the Sierra Madres” they say “Rules! We don’t need no stinkin’ rules!” They will ignore them and when there are objections they will look at you and say “So what”.
Look how they passed Obamacare. They kept running scenarios past the CBO until they came up with something that “saved money”. If a major initiative has to be passed they will use the budget process just like the Republicans tried to repeal Obamacare the same way. At least that had cost and funds attached to it.
Sinema will fall into line. Manchin will be the swing vote. He now had the role of Justice Kennedy on the Supreme Court.
I recall that during one of Trump’s SOTU addresses, Manchin stood up to applaud one of Trumps points (think it was about energy policy).
Chucky Schumer, who was sitting next to Manchin , ORDERED Manchin to sit down.
Like a “good German” Manchin immediately sat down.
Just another illustration that demokrats never break ranks and those that do, well, they just go away (e.g. Tulsi Gabbard, Joe Lieberman).
You will never find a “John McCain” in the demokrat party.
In the best traditions of Stalinist Russia, you either tow the line or you are out.
Regarding the people selected to be in the Zhou Baiden administration they are C/D level intellects. Apparatchiks brought on to not outshine Harris. So the lower end of the gene pool. Ones that do the powers behind the throne bidding.
Personnel is policy. That is a lesson we have learn the next time the populists are in power.
Chucky Schumer, who was sitting next to Manchin , ORDERED Manchin to sit down. Like a “good German” Manchin immediately sat down.
Waal, the Democratic members have to change caucus rules to provide for mandatory rotation of committee seats (no one on a given committee for more than 9 years in any bloc of 10) and for distribution of open seats by lot. They also have to provide for a competitive election to the positions of floor leader, whip, and ranking member on the budget committee at the beginning of each Congress. In such a scheme, you have nominations. The options are those nominated plus none-of-the-above. If only one person is nominated, you have a referendum and if he loses, he’s debarred and you start again. Otherwise, you have an ordinal ballot and multiple rounds of tabulation between your nominated candidates and ‘none-of-the-above’. If upChuck can be blown out of office on a secret ballot (even when no one runs against him), cannot hand out committee assignments like candy, and cannot strip anyone of their committee assignments, he cannot treat other senators like employees.
Cocaine Mitch aided and abetted a fraudulent election. What does he care? He’s nearly 80 and rich as sin, thanks to his wife’s China connections and his big business connections. The election for him was about protecting those interests from The Donald.