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Home » And now for a word about polls – and about election terror

And now for a word about polls – and about election terror

The New Neo Posted on by

Here’s a good article on the subject of polls and how difficult it is to do them or to analyze what they mean.

I have stopped even trying. And yet I still read articles on the subject, some giving hope, some taking it away, and I try to maintain a semblance of equanimity. I try – but I intermittently fail, big time, because this is the first election about which I’ve ever felt a fair amount of what I’d call terror.

I’ve been around a long time, and I’ve never missed voting in a presidential election since my first one in 1972. Until 2004 I always voted for the Democrat, and I always took a calm approach to losing. I preferred that the Democrat would win, but I was never afraid of the opponent.

Maybe that was because the opponent was a Republican – always a patriot and certainly never a leftist (even back then I was for the first and against the second). But I also think it was because all the candidates were people who were competent at the very least, and who really weren’t all that ideologically apart – not compared to today, that is.

In 2004 there were three new factors operating for me. The first was that I was on the right. The second is that I was more politically active and aware than before. And the third was the candidacy of John Kerry, whom I detested and had detested from the time he came on the political scene in the early 70s, when I was still a Democrat. That’s how much I detested him – it predated my political change.

So I wasn’t calm in 2004. I was nervous, anxious, frightened, and then relieved when Kerry lost and Bush won. And then in 2008 my level of fear was high, as well, because I recognized Obama as a very smooth and yet hidden leftist, and I sensed that his promised fundamental transformation of America (details largely unspecified when he was campaigning) would be a lot more fundamental and leftist than he was letting on.

2012 was similar. I feared Obama would be re-elected, and sure enough he was. Then in 2016, my fear shifted to the primaries, when I watched with growing alarm as Donald Trump, of all people, became the nominee, and I thought that meant that Hillary Clinton would become the next president. I feared the election of either of them, although for very different reasons. I probably don’t have to explain why I feared Hillary becoming president, but my fear of Trump was predicated on the sense that electing him would be a plunge into the unknown and that he would be a dangerously loose cannon in way over his head.

So on Election Night in 2016 I was resigned to a bad outcome. Either outcome would be bad, the known bad versus the unknown bad. That was my assessment, and I’m pleased to say that I was wrong about Trump and later pleasantly surprised.

But that only ups the fear quotient this time around, because I see this battle as the most important one of my lifetime, and the most bizarre as well. So that’s why I now use the word “terror” for the feeling that washes over me from time to time, and which I try to beat off.

Joe Biden, like John Kerry, happens to be another politician I’ve always disliked, starting when I was a Democrat. Even back then Biden seemed mendacious, corrupt, and on the wrong side of most issues. But Biden has now turned a cognitive corner and is not even up to his previous level of functioning, so that makes it even worse – and Harris is a leftist hack and laughing loon.

So that’s one factor. Another is that I have grown to think Trump does know what he’s doing and I like a great deal of what he’s done. But both of those things pale beside my conviction that this is far more than a battle between these two men, or between the Democrat and Republican parties of old. The Democrats have gone off the far left deep end, and they are deadly serious about it, and way too much of the populace seems either ignorant of this fact or approving of it. In addition, the MSM and most other cultural and even financial institutions are completely onboard. That is disturbing beyond my powers to describe.

It’s a lonely fight for Trump and the Republicans. But even if Trump wins, that’s just a finger in the dike. We’d better figure out what to do about the threatening floods.

Comments

And now for a word about polls – and about election terror — 149 Comments

  1. One of the many benefits of a victory for Trump next week (it is far from certain, and the outcome may not be known for many weeks, with hundreds of lawyers fighting various battles in the courts) is that never again will anyone trust the “pollsters”, almost all of whom richly merit permanent unemployment. One of the many reasons for any rational person to prefer Trump is that no-one predicting violent protests and chaos in the streets is doing so on the supposition of a victory for Harris/Biden.

  3. I was a bit shaken up last night, so much I had trouble sleeping. I caught the last 5 minutes of Martha MacCallum’s show just before Tucker. She had on a fellow from American University(?) named Lichtman(?). He has developed a set of “keys” that are non-partisan and he has used to determine the presidential election correctly since 1984. In fact, he sent Trump a congratulatory letter 3 days before the 2016 election.

    He said that pre-covid Trump was going to win big. Post-covid, the keys turned totally around and Trump will now lose big. I could tell MacCallum was a bit shaken, and given his track record, so was I. I’ve had almost 24 hours to process and now accept that Trump will in all likely hood lose. I just hope we can complete our plans for our move to Florida before the Marxist hammer starts falling next year.

    And: ” way too much of the populace seems either ignorant of this fact” I think that’s the case with the D friends I have. They see nothing in a Harris presidency other than a return to “normal” for them. Economic depression, loss of the 1st and 2nd Ads, nope, not going to happen according to them.

  4. physicsguy:

    I saw a reference to that guy, too, and I went to a site that explained the “keys” he uses and why he says Trump will lose this time. I meant to add that to this post (I’m busy now and don’t have time), but the gist of what I saw is that I disagreed with how he scored a couple of the keys (for example, he didn’t think there were any big foreign policy successes for Trump, which seems odd to me). It also occurred to me that not many of the elections from 1984 on (his track record of success) were all that hard to forecast except 2016. 2000 was a toss up, and I don’t recall the rest as being upsets.

    He might be right. And I certainly fear he’s right. But I don’t think his track record is as impressive as one might think.

    I’ll try to find the link later and put it up.

  5. If Trump wins, it’s not only an indictment of pollsters’ competence, IMO it’s also an indictment of their objectivity.

    How can it be the polls consistently favor Democrats up until the very end, then the Republican wins, going back to Reagan 1980? Are Republicans just naturally strong finishers?

    I don’t know what happens Tuesday, but I doubt it’s going to be a double-digit washout like the polls have been saying.

    This election I definitely get the impression that the polls have been weaponized against Republicans … like everything else.

  6. I still haven’t found a good answer to my question of where are the winning Biden voters. Are they young people who are really, really going to rock the vote this time? (Mostly they have fizzled in the past.) Is it suburban moms who can’t stand Trump?

    Is Trump losing those who voted for him in 2016? That’s hard to imagine.

    And what about the voters Trump is gaining among Republicans who didn’t vote for him last time or what seems to be increased support from blacks and hispanics?

    This isn’t making sense to me. Today 538 gives Trump a 10% chance of winning. But if the polls aren’t good, that’s garbage-in, garbage-out.

  7. I also was fearful until a couple of days ago, when for some reason a couple of lightbulbs went off, and I’m now looking forward to Trump winning c. 35 states and c. 330 EV’s. As Huxley says, the polls have been weaponized, and why shouldn’t they be? The Dems/media this time have left no stone unturned in their quest to remain in power and the polls are just another of their phony weapons this time. So I simply don’t believe any of them. Secondly, this election will see a record turnout, probably above 160 million. And I hopefully believe there is a correlation between the actual election turnout and the turnout we are seeing in Trump’s rallies versus Biden’s TV appearances at undisclosed locations. Anyway, I’m now quite optimistic.

  8. I just checked the markets and they are doing worse than I realized.

    Mr. Market has become nervous in the past week, though not as much as I would have thought if investors had baked a Biden presidency into their calculations.

    It seems to me investors would be frightened of a presidency which promises to squash fossil fuels, raise taxes and increase regulations.

    After all Biden was part of the Obama team. Do investors really believe the story that the Trump go-go economy is based on the delayed effect of Obama’s policies?

  9. “…where are the winning Biden voters.”

    In the mail (as they say).

    That has got to be the biggest problem here. (Along with all the dead voters and the unregistered voters and the non-citizen voters and the multiple voters and the wrong-address voters….along with all those GOP votes that somehow will be “lost”, thrown out, diverted to the town dump, etc.

    And since some states can count votes for up to a week or more following the elections, you can bet your bottom dollar that the hanky panky will be off the charts.

    That would keep me up at nights.
    I just wish there was some way to monitor that kind of cheating. Check up on it. Eliminate it (or reduce it)>

  10. I have yet to see a poll that polls the political leanings of those people who choose not to respond to pollsters. But I do get the impression that their numbers are increasing, and my intuition informs me that they probably tend to be among those who have had it up to here by now with polls.

    —– —– —– —– —–

    huxley (4:52 pm) wrote, “how can it be the polls consistently favor Democrats up until the very end, then the Republican wins, going back to Reagan 1980? Are Republicans just naturally strong finishers?” I mentioned almost exactly this on this blog around a month ago, and the rhetorical question still stands, legitimate as ever.

  11. “Is Trump losing those who voted for him in 2016? That’s hard to imagine.”

    Huxley, totally anecdotal evidence, but I have 3 family members who voted Trump 2016 going for Harris this time. Why? They are basically MOTR voters and thought HRC was terrible. Now they think the same of Trump. It’s all personality based voting….which person don’t I like? Nothing at all to do with policy, accomplishments etc. People vote one way or the other for many non-rational reasons.

  12. UK locks down again. How much can a lame duck administration fight this until January? Can’t see the red states going along with that.

    Extremely pessimistic right now.

  13. 538 reminds me of a weather forecaster who neglects to stick his hand out the window and check his prediction.

    The polls are garbage at this point. How do you factor in: the Amish in Pennsylvania doing a rolling rally for Trump? they’re as apolitical as you get, that’s unheard of; the Biden and Harris campaign stops that draw more Trump hecklers than Dem supporters; the spontaneous rallies of hundreds of cars and trucks on the highways; ditto boat rallies for Trump. The best one was the hearse following the Biden bus collecting votes for Joe. None of this has been due to the Trump campaign, it’s all been spontaneous.

    There are also the mass defections by the police to Trump due to their treatment by the Dems during all the rioting and disorder. They’re usually Democrats. The heavy industry union guys are going for Trump in PA. It’s happening in MI according to Congresswoman Dingle, a very plugged in Dem, and Michael Moore, the multi-millionaire Socialist film maker. The Iron Range in MN is also switching to Trump. These are places that are usually diehard Democrat.

    The polls are worthless because the election this time is unlike anything in living memory, a genuine outsider who’s bought real prosperity to many people who’d been left to rot by the powers that be, and the Swamp that produces nothing but mightily benefits those in power.

  14. The market wants two things: more stimulus and no lockdowns. The smart money has long realized the virus is not the issue it’s the response to it.

    They will probably get more stimulus and also more lockdowns.

  15. Well, a fitting post for Halloween Neo.
    Well said, however.

    I retain a measure of faith in the great American public although it is a very nervous faith. I cling to the slender thread that the media, and the coastal elites are so tuned into their echo chamber that they are clueless.

    The young Pastor that I listen to says that God wants us to ask for His favor; and will grant it. We differ somewhat. While there is surely mercy for the innocent and helpless, I believe that God gave us free will and expects us to exercise it and generally live with the results. Therefore, I do not pray for personal favor, but I am praying nightly that God will be merciful and grant his favor on this country.

    Huxley, the market is always nervous. But, so am I. That’s why I reduced my exposure significantly a couple of weeks ago. If this election goes badly, I expect calamity to pile upon calamity; and the market to have a nervous breakdown.

  16. Physicsguy (@ 4:47 pm),

    First of all, remember that American University is, as Whoopi Goldberg might say, a liberal liberal university. Offsetting Lichtman is Helmut Norpoths prediction (link below), the recent Trafalgar poll, and Rasmussen’s claim that 31% of the black electorate supports Trump. I don’t know that any one of these predictions is any more accurate than another, but you can find offsetting predictions for all of the leftist media electoral claptrap currently being shoveled. Also somewhat helpful is Misanthropic Humanitarian’s post over at Ace of spades HQ (“Polling in 2020”) in which he delves deeper into polling and misinterpretation of polls (posted yesterday @ 6:52 pm).

    Example:

    There are a number of problems with the polling industry, but the biggest problem they are dealing with is response rate. Prior to 2000, polling was done primarily through random dial landline calling and they would get a response rate of 50%. That means half the people they contacted would answer their questions.

    The response rate today is 2%. 98 out of every 100 attempts to reach a voter is rejected. Of those that do respond, there is a very high sampling bias toward young, female, white Democrats.

    [snip]

    And that is the key to polling, you are getting a single person to be a proxy for the voting intentions of about 10,000 people. If you don’t get a truly representative sample, then you don’t have an accurate picture . . .

    IMO polling is nothing but supposition. Remember that in 2016 polls were giving Clinton something like an 83% chance of winning. Everyone, especially the media, interpreted that as “Clinton will be the next president.” No one bothered to mention that her 83% chance of winning actually meant that Trump had a (17%) chance of winning, too. Likewise, one’s chance of winning Powerball or Megamillions are millions to one, yet neither of those lotteries has gone unwon for very long. As Don Surber likes to say: “Never bet against Donald John Trump.”

    Links:

    https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/29/political-scientist-helmut-norpoth-predicts-trump-win/

    ace.mu,nu

  17. Trump may very well lose but if the people behind the scenes believed the polls were true, both Biden and Trump would be in Texas right now.

    Mike

  18. It seems Neo and I cast our first votes the same year, but apparently not for the same candidates. It was the only time I voted (a) in NY, and (b) absentee. I was a college student then. I was hoping that by voting for Nixon on the Conservative line, we who did would make the margin of victory. Nope. He didn’t need us.

    It’s amazing to reflect that New York was that much of a landslide for us.

    As to predictions, well, I don’t know. huxley points out something I’d noticed ages ago. “How can it be the polls consistently favor Democrats up until the very end, then the Republican wins, going back to Reagan 1980? Are Republicans just naturally strong finishers?” Not only that, but we normally seem to overperform by a couple of points or so. (2000 was an exception, and surprised me.)

    All I’m sure of is that the pollsters are facing a new situation, and no one knows what that really means. Does it mean they are missing a Trump landslide? Narrow win? Close enough that Biden is a lock? I’m guessing the 2nd, but that’s all it is, a guess. And what of fraud? The Dems can get away, now, with far more than in the past. Will that be decisive? Has their “vote by mail” mantra blown up in their faces? Regardless of what people say, I don’t think anyone knows.

    Hopeful, but not optimistic. But then, I AM Eeyore.

    And we are here as on a darkling plain
    Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight,
    Where ignorant armies clash by night.

  20. Neo: thanks for the candid autobiographical notes on your voting over time. I share your revulsion for Kerry and others: something rotten in them, well beyond the usual run of political sleaze.

    I also share your terror. It is at first look an odd choice of words; but on reflection it is exactly right. That hollow cold feeling at the pit of one’s stomach; an almost inchoate sense that some unspeakable evil is about to enter the world; that our fate hangs by a thread. No, this ain’t no street brawl, no game played by old rules; this is somehow bigger, something that, as Obama let slip so tellingly, will fundamentally transform our nation.

    Prayers up for a decisive win.

  21. physicsguy on October 31, 2020 at 5:35 pm said:

    “Is Trump losing those who voted for him in 2016? That’s hard to imagine.”

    Huxley, totally anecdotal evidence, but I have 3 family members who voted Trump 2016 going for Harris this time. Why? They are basically MOTR voters and thought HRC was terrible. Now they think the same of Trump. It’s all personality based voting…”

    I don’t get it. I was with Hux in that assumption.

    Are these people immune to economic cycles themselves? Didn’t economic progress for the middle and working class mean anything to them? Don’t they care if the United States is sold out to China? Just a big shrug? Freedom of speech a non issue? Bureaucratic persecution of political opponents nothing to concern ones’ self with?

    Do they care if their houses are attacked by mobs, and the government at all levels just withdraws?

    Profile these people for me.

    In turn I’ll give you two cases.

    So, I have had a couple of conversations lately with other men about the election. Both said “we are in for a shit-storm either way”. In both cases they were, I assume, repeating this phrase as one they preemptively use when talking to someone they suspect might be a Republican voter if not a virtual anarcho-libertarian in principle (me), who they don’t want to outright alienate.

    In one case, the likely Democrat vote [the adopted cousin with the raging social worker brother], is an amiable, clueless type, who can barely use a computer. He hadn’t even heard of Hunter Biden. For him, all Dems are, he imagines, still the generic and fungible, UAW approved types he was instructed to vote for in 1988 when he was young in the workforce. And he will no doubt be guided this time by his English girlfriend, despite my laying things out for him for about half an hour, and him agreeing. Agreeing in order to get me to stop, no doubt.

    The other guy works for a German company in a supervisory role; and though he voted against Hillary, he initially seemed a bit uncertain about who to select this time. Why? Because as little as the former one uses a computer, this latter is all over – to my great surprise – social effen media to nearly the extent his wife is. Facebook, Twitter, and all the “girl shit” like that. “I look at Facebook about once a day, but the bickering gets to me.”

    As a result of immersion in the world of gossip and hysteria and the effluent streams discharged by borderline personality disorder and manic depressive cases, he apparently became half-convinced that the objective world “out here”, is as disturbed as the insane universe which screaming and backbiting neurotic females of both sexes have created online.

    After my saying to him: “Pretend for a moment there is no Facebook, and that you and your wife never look at it. What do you see?”, he settled down and admitted that he had intended to vote for Trump regardless.

    Think of what unserious if intelligent, and emotionally unstable if ardent, people have done to this culture. Or better, think of what shape our public culture has now taken as they shaped a cyber world in their own image and likeness and then exported it to the real world.

  22. Well, I’m sure Trump has lost some 2016 voters, but I find it difficult believe they aren’t outnumbered by Hillary voters fleeing the craziness of the Biden/Harris ticket and all that entails.

  23. I’m not personally aware of any 2016 Trump voters that are not voting for him again and if anything they are more rabid this time. I also know a couple of family members that are voting for him that didn’t last time and in both their cases it’s about lockdowns (schools for one and a ravaged small business for the other). They don’t particularly like him but they want their lives back and know he’s the best hope for that.

    If the Democrat ticket is going to win it’s going to be by adding those who didn’t vote last time and/or voter fraud in my opinion.

  24. Barry Meislin:

    There would be plenty of ways to stop that kind of cheating, if the left was motivated to do so. They are motivated instead to make it easier to cheat. And so, if the left happens to control the rules in that state (either made by the legislature or ultimately by the courts), they will make the rules such that cheating becomes easier and easier. Once it reaches a critical mass, the left stays in power indefinitely and it’s impossible to change.

  25. DNW
    Wrt Huxley’ family members: I know some people like that. I call them the mush head bloc. Nothing matters but MEAN TWEETS. He’s an awful person. Ask for reasons and…..MEAN TWEETS.
    Policy? They look at me as if I’ve started on another language.
    The best they can come up with is something nobody’s believed in a long time…he cheats on his taxes.
    Anything terrible which happens if Biden wins will be blamed on the usual suspects, and not on Biden and the hard left and back to the voters who put them in. That is also the answer to terrible results of democratic party actions in the past. When no association can be made, there is no learning.
    Just MEAN TWEETS.

  27. Regardless of the outcome, the polling firms will be with us in the future because the great majority of them are propaganda outlets for the democrat party. The entire platform of the democrat party rests upon lies and when all you have are lies, propaganda is vital to the claimed validity of lies.

  28. Prior to the 2000 election I had never voted for a republican presidential nominee. Two men initiated my change; disgust with Bill Clinton’s unfitness for the Presidency and Rush Limbaugh. In my mind, I initially strived mightily to refute Rush’s statements and failed utterly to dispel them. That led me to conservative mags, blogs and news outlets. And to being certain of my vote for George Bush in 2000. He’s been a disappointment but infinitely preferable to the execrable Al Gore.

  30. Sign of hope:

    The Des Moines Register poll for the state of Iowa has Trump leading Biden by seven points, outside the margin of error.

    For perspective, Iowa voted for Dukakis, Clinton, Clinton, Gore, Bush, Obama, Obama, and Trump.

    There is ZERO chance Trump is handily winning Iowa and getting blown out on Tuesday. He could lose a close race or the Register could be wrong but Trump is NOT up seven in Iowa and losing by seven or eight nationally.

    Mike

  31. Wall Street is addicted to easy money and it is afraid of President Trump (because he’s not in their pocket). Also, the lack of another trillion dollars in “covid relief” has driven the stock market down.

    Ignore Wall Street and look at Main Street. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 33% this last quarter. That’s never happened before. I commute a pleasant 15 miles every day to my office, along a highway that parallels a B&N railroad track that runs from Minneapolis to Seattle. There are lots of trains running both ways, every day. As many as there were in January.

    Thursday, the 8th Circuit ruled that Minnesota will not count absentee ballots that arrive after 8 p.m. on election day, but the election officials will set them aside. Our SoS says there’s about 350,000 ballots that haven’t been received yet, and I expect they’re mostly Democrat. I think this is the same issue that came up in PA and NC, which the S Ct allowed. But Barrett didn’t participate. The 8th Circuit ruling creates a split in the circuits on the same issue. I think the S Ct, now with Barrett, will probably re-visit the issue, and could agree with the 8th and mandamus PA and NC to adhere. Fingers crossed.

    Also in Minnesota — on Friday, the (despicable) MN Atty Gen’l Keith Ellison decreed** that Trump’s planned rally in Rochester would be limited to 250 attendees because Covid. Find the video. Trump showed up, got off the plane, and rode in The Beast out of the airport to the 20,000 people in cars and on foot who had come to see him but couldn’t get in. He got out of the limo for fifteen minutes, shook hands and tossed MAGA hats to a cheering, excited crowd. He doesn’t forget the little people. He came back to the bleachers and gave a great speech, but you could hear the anger in his voice. There will be Minnesotans who come out for Trump out of anger for the way our Gov and A.G. treated him.

    ** In a blatant violation of the 1st Amendment right to peaceably assemble.

    Oldflyer: Tell any of your Christian friends who oppose Trump because of his past behavior, that they’d better hope that God doesn’t apply the same rule when it comes their time to be judged.

    Neo: Don’t let your fear silence your powerful pen.

  32. In terms of the scientific methodology of polling, a 2% response rate is a train wreck. One can try to compensate for that, but the sensible corrective is to give up.

    Unless Geoffrey’s propaganda is the goal. No doubt it is. You could check out the mediocre film noir entitled “The Fearmakers” (1958) starring Dana Andrews. Even in 1958 somebody had the notion that public opinion could be manipulated through corrupt polling practices.

    I used to think, and to a lesser extent still do think, that Obama’s re-election was the unrecoverable tipping point for the nation. On the one hand I actually feared a Hugo Chavez or Manuel Zelaya style takeover, but I think I underestimated the extent to which $20M or more in the Obama bank account might just make them all go away. I’m slightly surprised to see Barak on the campaign trail in the final few days instead of sipping cocktails on Martha’s Vineyard.

    But we had clues as to what team Obama was really up to. The Fast and Furious gun running through a corrupt DOJ and BATF, and a partial undoing of the filibuster for jamming though federal judges, and IRS-Gate were big clues.
    _____

    I don’t know about this election. I hope I’m wrong but I think Harris/Biden will win. The will to vote for Trump is very much bigger than for Biden. But the most powerful human emotion is hatred. (The anarchist ideology has leveraged this since about 1850.) And hatred will drive people to vote for Biden.

    Obviously, the turn-out for Trump voters will be high, but if the overall turn-out is record setting, this favors Biden. Equally obvious, is that if Trump has a narrow win on election night, he will lose in the subsequent fraud contest.

  33. “But the most powerful human emotion is hatred.“

    A couple millennia of Christians martyrs would disagree.

    The weakness of hate is that it must be fed. Those fires have to be stoked over and over again. I believe there’s no hate-based equivalent for the cliche “absence makes the heart grow fonder.”

    If Trump wins, it won’t just be a victory of reason over but hurt. It will show that, at least for now, you can’t keep the hate-knob turned all the way up for four years and win in America.

    Mike

  34. TommyJay:

    I think that Obama’s semi-retirement has been a sham, and that he’s been heavily involved in politics ever since he left office. He is a community organizer, after all.

    I also believe that although Obama did not want Biden to be the candidate, once Obama realized that if the others stayed in the race then Sanders would be the nominee, Obama pressured the others to drop out because their presence was pulling votes away from Biden and the fear was that the supposedly unelectable leftist Sanders would be the nominee. Couldn’t have that!

    So Obama pressured the others to drop out, and later Sanders dropped when it was pointed out to him that he’d be much better as a behind-the-scenes guy who would have a strong say in any Biden government. That was ok with Sanders.

    I think Obama has been directing it. And if Biden wins it is a way to reinstitute the Obama policies and people, and Obama’s “legacy” will be revived and extended.

    I can’t find the link right now, but I remember when Obama was about to turn over the reins of office to Trump, Obama made some statement about planning to remain active in politics on the organizational level. And I believe that’s exactly what he has done.

  35. According to this Pew poll (10/09) it is men who are flipping against Trump vs their votes in 2016.
    ___________________________________________

    In contrast, men are divided. Today, 49% favor Biden while 45% favor Trump. In 2016, men favored Trump by modest margins in preelection polls, as well as among validated 2016 voters.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/10/09/the-trump-biden-presidential-contest/

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/
    ___________________________________________

    Men………….2016……2020
    Democrat…….41%…….49%
    Republican…..52%…….45%

    Could ~7% of men have shifted from Trump to Biden since 2016? I have trouble believing that unless large numbers of men are lying to the pollsters (at least the 2% who will answer a poll call).

  36. I think Obama has been directing it. And if Biden wins it is a way to reinstitute the Obama policies and people, and Obama’s “legacy” will be revived and extended.

    neo: Bingo! That’s been my impression all along.

    It was clear someone behind the scenes managed the big swing towards Biden, when Sanders looked like he would be the last man standing.

    The horror is that Obama may succeed.

  37. I wonder if Biden actually thinks he will be in charge if he wins. His dementia is not so advanced that he would be literally unable to do anything at least at the beginning. I mean how is this actually going to work?

    Truly amazing that is a question that needs to be asked.

  38. Fundamental Transformation. Communists/Anarchists/Racists running rampant and demanding total power. Dreams of My Fascist.

  39. It occurs to me if the polls are being seriously manipulated, then the only well of voters to draw upon is men without drawing suspicion.

    The numbers for women, young and minorities are essentially maxed out.

    If men are truly flipping, the only reason I can think of is that they buy blaming Trump for Covid and ruining the economy.

  40. I agree that Obama is the person behind all this so the question then becomes is Obama going to be driving the policy and not Sanders, Warren or the AOC wing. Wall Street loved Obama but not so much the Sanders crowd.

    Are they going to lockdown and send us to a double dip recession and still raise taxes like the platform calls for?

    Be nice if somebody was asked these questions.

  41. “It was clear someone behind the scenes managed the big swing towards Biden, when Sanders looked like he would be the last man standing.”

    Biden was a terrible, unliked candidate that had no chance and then, as if by magic …

  42. I’m fixating on this men question.

    The numbers above mean that 1 out of 7 men who voted for Trump in 2016 said they would vote for Biden this year — while all the other demographics remain roughly the same in 2020 as in 2016.

    It seems we should have seen some serious journalism on this story, which would be allowed since it favors Biden. But beyond anecdotal stuff about a few guys out of work and shooting it at the diner, I don’t recall anything.

    Furthermore, Biden is such a weak male candidate. Guys can smell that. Trump is obviously the go-to alpha male.

    Dunno. Just doesn’t seem right.

  43. Posted by Glenn Reynolds, Instapundit @ 8:17 pm. It’s anecdotal, but at some points all of these national anecdotes reach a critical mass (emphasis mine):

    UNSURPRISING: Philadelphia Firefighters Union Confirms Trump Endorsement in Forced Recount.

    Earlier in October, the union representing Philadelphia firefighters voted to endorse Donald Trump. This was no small undertaking, given the overwhelming support of most unions for Joe Biden. When some union members complained about the process, a second vote was conducted. Trump won that vote by a two-to-one margin. . . .

    “It’s a huge win for Trump,” a source in the department told PJ Media. “Firefighters are overwhelmingly sacrificing future contract increases with a Democrat-run city to try and get Trump re-elected. It’s actually quite profound.” The vote and the revote further indicate how little support the radical Democrats and their police-defunding agenda get from first responders around the country.

  44. Gingrich was on Judge Jeanine tonite, referring to a new nat’l poll from a firm I’d not heard of, showing DJT leading the pop. vote by 5%!
    And, for a guess that Trafalgar is undercounting, see Bookworm today, incl. reader Texasjimbo, on how Tralgar
    “have Trump within the margin of error or better in Penn., Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota. As does Big Data Poll. As does The Democracy Institute. As does Sasquenia.”

  45. MBunge,
    Yes, speaking in absolutes is usually a mistake, and mine on hatred was a very unchristian thing to say. But they (anarchists and leftists) think it is true, and I do too in the short term. And Neo has reminded us that in 1984 there was a mandated 2 or 5 minutes of hate exercise as a refresher. Now it is a constant drone on cable news. I hope Mike is correct in his above conclusion.
    _____

    Neo,
    Well, Rep. Clyburn was the front-man for the Dem. establishment push towards Biden in the primaries. But that doesn’t mean anything. I suspect your are 100% correct. I have always thought that Obama was one of the stealthiest politicians ever. And even though I don’t think Obama is terribly interested in any “heavy lift” personal political action, he probably has an army of zealots and surrogates at his disposal.

  46. Charlie Hurt is now on Gutfeld, on how DJT has (spectacularly, emotionally) broken the Left, esp. on race issues.

  47. huxley:

    Well, if it’s true, it may be that these are men who voted for Trump only because they HATED Hillary, and they don’t hate Biden that much.

  48. I know I sound like a broken record, but Trump is going to win comfortably. I am more confident of this now than I was two or three weeks ago. As I’ve said many times, he will get between 315-351 in the EC and a 1-3% in the popular vote.

    We may not have the final outcome for a few days, and Democrats may not formally concede for weeks (after much litigation and endless conspiracy peddling), and, there will for certain be Antifa/BLM riots, but Trump’s victory will be clear enough by late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning to extinguish any doubt in the minds of reasonable people.

    For the worrywarts, ask yourself this: what evidence is there of a Biden victory, beyond a bunch of polls? I see none. He is a weak, pathetic she’ll who appeals to no one, inspires no one. Harris is an absurd lightweight who appeals to intersectional obsessed progressives band no one else

    Keep calm and vote for Don

  49. Well, if it’s true, it may be that these are men who voted for Trump only because they HATED Hillary, and they don’t hate Biden that much.

    neo: Perhaps. Clearly we are in speculative territory. Thanks for taking a crack at it.

    The standard story of Trump’s victory in 2016 was the 6.7-9.2 million Obama voters who defected to Trump, mostly in the Rust Belt, for economic reasons or … (sigh) racism, if you ask Vox.

    https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/just-how-many-obama-2012-trump-2016-voters-were-there/

    I can’t find those numbers broken down by gender. I do recall the SJW/feminist complaints that white women were the traitors who elected Trump.

  50. For the worrywarts, ask yourself this: what evidence is there of a Biden victory, beyond a bunch of polls? I see none.

    Ackler: That’s my problem. I don’t see the clothes on the emperor either, but all the authorities are laughing and clapping, and even some of my allies are buying it.

    We keep having our worst fears about Democrats, the Swamp and the Media being validated. If Trump wins, it means things are even worse than we thought and there will be hell to pay to do something about it.

    Plus, I haven’t paid much attention to the Senate races, but even with a Trump victory, Republicans are not guaranteed to hold the Senate. There is a real possibility that Trump could be president with both houses controlled by Democrats who will block him at every turn, then cruise to the White House in 2024.

    Charles Cooke explores this unappetizing scenario here:

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-worst-case-scenario-in-november/

  51. Keep this in mind if Trump wins:

    If Democrats and the media had treated Trump fairly, he would have been a lock for re-election in January 2020. But when COVID hit, Dems and the media would have had enough credibility to crucify Trump for it. Trump really only has a chance now because his enemies have so badly damaged themselves in their hate for him.

    Mike

  52. “Democrats who will block him at every turn“

    Trump will have the veto, enough GOP support in the Senate to block anything except free ice cream, and no need to worry about re-election.

    Mike

  53. Huxley, on “both houses controlled by Democrats who will block him at every turn….”, until Barr brings big busts of the Deep State etc., at which point they’ll be scrambling to save their hides.

    Also, Hurt on Gutfeld made the point, that he expects a big hidden vote for DJT from suburban moms etc., esp. in MI & PA, who resent the tyrannical moves of Dem governors in the lockdowns.

  54. MBung: I see you’re following Art Deco’s rude example of not acknowledging other participants by name.

    Trump doesn’t have to worry about reelection, but we still have to worry about who wins in 2024.

    My concern is that voters become frustrated with the deadlock and elect, say, Harris in 2024 with full control of Congress and then we are back to 2009 with an even more radical Democratic Party ramming through an agenda farther left than Obama’s.

    Also, if Trump is deadlocked, he can do little to counter-attack the Resistance, which was my concern in my previous comment.

  55. aNanyMouse:

    There is the shy Trump voter effect as well as the P.O.ed by lockdown tyrant effect that works against the COVID19 hysteria formented by the Dems/Media, Suburban mom’s seeing their kid’s educations (K-12 and college) being obliterated for political/safety?

    Regarding the congress. If Dems get control why would a thinking person assume that the rules of the last 200 years would matter at all to the left? Impeachment theater for the next 4 years and rampant lawfare in the other branch. King Sullivans in every circuit?

  56. I really have no clue who will win.

    The only people who have even the vaguest ideas are those pollsters working in either of the campaigns. They likely have noted certain ‘bell weather’ precincts in each voting jurisdiction.

    We’ll just have to wait and see.

    Doubtless, though, my vote in Illinois won’t affect the electoral college numbers. I’m settling for just making a tiny impact on the popular vote numbers.

  57. “Ackler: That’s my problem. I don’t see the clothes on the emperor either, but all the authorities are laughing and clapping, and even some of my allies are buying it.”

    Huxley: All very true. Although, conservatives are natural pessimists, so it not too surprising that some buy into the MSM narrative about the election. Most do not, however, at least in my experience. The disparity is just too stark.

    As to all of the authorities laughing and clapping, I think there is a knave/fool distinction here. Some of them (left or right) are clueless fools, living in their tiny bubble and feeding off of the confirmation bias therein. But others are knaves, aware the polls are BS, but exploiting them to the fullest, to discourage, disaffect and dishearten all of us deplorables.

    It is not going to work.

    “We keep having our worst fears about Democrats, the Swamp and the Media being validated. If Trump wins, it means things are even worse than we thought and there will be hell to pay to do something about it.”

    Huxley: Yes, all true. Unfortunately. Trump’s victory is only step one (of about 5,000).

    “Plus, I haven’t paid much attention to the Senate races, but even with a Trump victory, Republicans are not guaranteed to hold the Senate. There is a real possibility that Trump could be president with both houses controlled by Democrats who will block him at every turn, then cruise to the White House in 2024.”

    Huxley: Yes, very true. On a scale of one (no confidence) to ten (complete confidence), I am an eight to nine on Trump’s victory. But I am at a five to six on the GOP holding the Senate. If they do, it will likely be by 51-49, at best. I see them losing Maine, Arizona and one other, but gaining Alabama, for a net loss of two. Or, maybe losing Maine, Arizona and two others, but winning Alabama and pulling off an upset in Michigan or Minnesota for the same 51-49 net result.

    But a Democratic Senate with a Trump victory is a distinct possibility. And Cooke is right: it won’t be pleasant. Most significantly, Trump will, for certain, be impeached again, as long as Democrats retain the House (which, alas, seems probable). Indeed, he might be impeached multiple times. While the likelihood of enough Republican Senators voting to convict is minimal, a Democratic Senate would drag out the process for months, maybe years, possibly clogging the entire legislative process in so doing. Not great.

  58. I just wanted to put this out there, and this comment thread is the closest of today’s topics for which my following comment applies.

    —– —– —– —– —–

    Here’s a mini-example of what we’re up against.

    I was scrolling through comments on a Traveling Wilburys song, and the last comment, unlike all those preceding, was a left-wing mini-diatribe. I took it upon myself to comment, with some annoyance, not at the commenter’s left-wing bulloney (I’ve achieved herd immunity with respect to that), but at his dragging politics into what wasn’t, or didn’t have to be, political.

    M J R: Why the h#ll does someone have to drag politics into *everything*??

    The guy came back with . . .

    JL: Yes, Bob Dylan, George Harrison and John Lennon cared and care about human beings and justice. That is at the core of what makes them great. On the other hand, there are people like the Christian who murdered John Lennon because the song Imagine did not praise Jesus, and the MAGA men who hate black people but love guns.

    Yeeesh. I came back with . . .

    M J R: Typical one-sided rhetoric, as though you and your ilk are the only decent people in the world. Done with you.

    . . . and I meant it. But my antagonist wasn’t done. He offered, for my education and edification, two more political comments.

    JL: Did you know that Clear Channel banned John Lennon’s Imagine prior to the invasion of Iraq, out of fear that the song might make people less blood-thirsty? Clear Channel is the channel of Rush Limbaugh, hate-monger recognized by Donald Trump with the nation’s highest civilian honor.

    JL: Trump is a destroyer of everything we might love.
    — Roger Waters
    Pink Floyd
    We elected a moron.
    — Bruce Springsteen

    The guy comes back with two comments citing first, a corporate media player evidently in the left’s dog house, who does very terrible things that all decent-thinking people will despise, and second, more celebrities spewing more celebrity left-wing garbage. That’s his idea of putting forth an opposing view.

    Shakin’ my head.

    Needless to say, I’m ignoring the dolt.

    Thanks, friends, for indulging me. Ciao.

    M J R

  59. “they win by making you think you’re alone“ (sorry for quoting a bad movie made by lefties but i really like it). This is the reason they made these polls, by making you think we have no way of winning so we give up and stay home. Just vote like your life depends on it and encourage others around you to do so and stop worrying about the results. If you think trump will win for sure, vote because only a large margin of victory can offset democrats’ cheating. If you think trump will definitely lose, vote to give our side a fighting chance for a miraculous come for behind victory.

  60. Vote, continue trying to wake other people up. Prepare for what could happen if the Democrats do win to what extent you are able. Beyond that, you have to “ give it to God “ as we say in evangelical circles. Otherwise you risk becoming a nervous wreck and mentally disturbed. I have to keep coming back to that. For a while, actually a long while, with the riots , my dad’s death and such, I was not in a good place emotionally. At some point you have to mentally compartmentalize, at least. But faith is a good thing, as long as you understand that mature faith means being willing to accept something different than what you asked for.

  61. The polls in Biden’s favor are an added argument that, if Trump wins, it “must” be because of Trump cheating.

    To that end, they already have, on the running chyrons on FOX, the claim that Iran may be able to cast a multitude of electronic votes to interfere with our election. The implication is that such votes will be—try not to laugh too hard—meant to help Trump. Yes, the Iranians would help the same Trump who has destroyed the Iranian economy and pulled out of the deal that Biden and Obama made. Naturally, the implication is that the Iranians don’t want Biden to win, because he would reinstate the agreement and also give Iran money and help them with their desires. Note that the Left can always count on the Low Information Voters to believe the impossible.

    And though not in the polling, what might be an issue that is influencing the Left voters: Devin Nunes said on Liz MacDonald’s FOX show that now that the Hunter laptop information is out, if Biden is elected Harris and whoever are the “puppet-masters” will move immediately to push Biden out, so they can set up “her own” cabinet, etc. After all, they certainly have enough evidence hidden among the Left. Naturally, they will be shocked—SCHOCKED—to find that Biden actually IS corrupt. Who-da thunk it?

    Since I’ve lived in CA for 60 years—my first Presidential vote was also in 1972!, (for Nixon)—I’ve seen the Left cheat in every election. This election is moving cheating to the BIG TIME.

  62. I am not terrified, only sorrowful. I see this election as choice between a return to unmanageable decline, or the continuation of a heroic attempt to reverse it. Because of what I think of as sociopolitical entropy, Obama’s ‘Great Arc of History’ also bends toward decline and dissolution. We have the choice of putting off the inevitable by sticking with a nakedly corrupted paradigm for a while longer or attempting to create a new one. To grossly oversimplify, when the wonderfully productive unregulated capitalism that followed the Civil War crashed in the Great Depression, FDR created a new paradigm of regulated Keynesian capitalism that ushered in the new era of growth and creativity we have seen in our lifetimes. But the regulators have become increasingly corrupt – to the point where some of them like Hillary and Joe – have apparently been directly selling our country out to the Chinese for peanuts. The problem was old when Plato asked “Who will watch the watchers?” No I am not afraid, only sad. VDH is right. Trump is a tragic hero, but win or lose I wish him Godspeed.

  63. When I cast my vote for Trump in 2016, I really didn’t think he’d win, but I voted anyway. As Sleepy Joe would say “Sonofabitch! Sixty-three million other Americans thought the same thing– and he won!”

    Just a reminder.

  65. Neo, I too, swing between abject terror at the ‘fake’ polls and joyous hope and hilarity at the size of the rally crowds and the antics of Trump supporters.
    The hearse chasing the biden bus!
    The TRUMP sign on the 405!
    The Texan Trump truck brigade mobbing another biden bus!
    The Mary Poppins Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious parody!
    Is this fun or what?
    Please, please, oh PLEASE God! Four more years!
    The voter turn out numbers are the key. I am praying that the repeated refrain I read at the Walkaway page – ‘This is a great spiritual struggle.’* And, ‘I’m voting for the first time in my life, to save America.’ is what is behind those numbers.
    *The number of yoga practitioners that use those exact words is startling. Go figure.
    Almost 30 years ago I was a guest at the House of Lords in Britain the day they voted on joining the EU. Saw Thatcher outside the Peeress’s Lav! The attendance was astonishing – members that hadn’t bothered to vote in years were there; old, arthritic, missing limbs, eyes and whatnot had left the ancestral halls and journeyed to London – and all to vote AGAINST joining up with ‘the bloody Hun!’. I hope the same spirit of independence and love of country is motivating the vote now. If it’s hatred of Trump we are going to lose more than an election.
    I also think the dems went a bridge too far with the whole corona virus shibai. Another recurring theme on the Walkaway page goes something like this; ‘I hated Trump until the lockdown. Then I had time to look deeper. I had time to research answers to the questions I had. I watched his press conferences and saw how the media misrepresented him. He’s not at all how they present him! He loves this county and is working hard for us.’ That was a big red pill moment for A LOT of people. I think Walkaway has doubled their numbers to ~500,000 since the virus hit. How many more had their eyes opened?
    Supposedly the youth vote is big this time – but who are they voting for? They are at home with family instead of on campus where they can be corralled and hectored into voting dem. Yuge tactical error.
    My great hope is this – the possibility of a major paradigm shift for our culture if Trump pulls out a win with the help of a significant share of Black and Hispanic voters. That could literally break the dem party and usher in a truly post racial era. How’s that for irony?
    I have great trust in the Lord**, but I realize his timeline is not mine, and that’s what worries me… This truly is ‘A Great Spiritual Battle’. Keep the faith, everybody!
    **They do say he specially looks after; Drunks, small children, and the United State of America.

  66. One final note. If Trump wins we won’t lose the Senate and will most likely gain the house. Everyone I know voting Trump is voting red all down the line. Things are so polarized right now there is not going to be any ticket splitting. Hence my belief that Trump could ‘break’ the democrat party. Let it be so!

  68. A few additional points about polling…

    Land lines: I don’t have one. Do you? The percentage of homes with land lines is now down to 6.5 percent. If only 2 percent of those respond, the sampling pool is now down to 0.13 percent. No possible amount of weighting and adjustment can possibly make up for that.

    Online surveys: As soon as I see the word “survey” I delete it without a second glance.

  69. but my fear of Trump was predicated on the sense that electing him would be a plunge into the unknown and that he would be a dangerously loose cannon in way over his head.

    Naturally he would be, if he wasn’t backed by Q’s faction and by Ymar’s faction.

    The only thing more crazy and worse Americans could do, was to elect Ymar, not just a type of Ymar, but the user of Ymar to the White House.

    Before the year would be up, heads would roll and be put on spikes before the White House lawn. Literally.

    If a billion humans must die to purify the Earth, so be it. 2 billion is a bargain too. 3 billion is getting expensive.

    I am here on this realm not to preserve the American system nor reform it. That is why Trump was given a chance at reform, from inside the system. I am here to Burn It All Down. No matter what it takes.

    Nothing can stop the Divine Plan from activating and completing. Not you, not Trump, not Q, not even the Torah aka US Constitution. Nothing can stop what is coming.

    We’d better figure out what to do about the threatening floods.

    Adopting Ymar’s advice at this late stage?

    What should scare you is not the dark or the light’s plans, it is the Creation/Creator’s plan that required them to do the unthinkable. Sending me, of all options. Humanity has repeated K-12 grades too many times. You have not achieved graduation, you still repeat all these lower grades.

    It takes a Trump to shake up the students. And if even Trump does not work and fails…

    Prepare for the Divine Apocalypse, the Dawning of the Golden Age 2021. The Hammer of the Divine Might approaches.

  70. I haven’t sifted through all the comments so far, so I apologize if this is duplicate sentiment. But I’ve been following the polls and the Electoral College math for quite some time. Here are a few of my thoughts.

    1. Trump is going to win at least 270 EC votes, and thus the presidency. But he will lose the popular vote.

    However,

    2. Trump wins because he ends up winning anywhere from 35% – 45% of the black vote. This is going to shock people, but I’ve seen evidence of this for the last couple of years. Democrats can’t win if the black vote is splintered.

    3. Trump wins a big chunk of the Latino vote too. Take a look at Arizona: just in the last week, the polls have inverted and Trump is going up while Biden nose dives. Arizona is worth 11 Electoral College votes.

    There’s a lot more to say, but I’m a bit lazy right now to type it all off. I’ll predict two surprises: Trump wins Minnesota for the GOP for the first time since 1972, and Biden is going to squeak a win in Georgia. (I live in Georgia and it is absolutely trending purple/blue because of the sinkhole that is Atlanta.) However, Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And the Senate stays GOP by a razor thin 51 vote margin.

    There will be post-election riots to make everything we’ve seen over the summer look like a picnic.

  71. After all Biden was part of the Obama team. Do investors really believe the story that the Trump go-go economy is based on the delayed effect of Obama’s policies?

    It’s due to the Corona fears, another lockdown actually. But the markets are only down because they went up too much since April.

    October and September are notoriously bad months for stocks, as too many big money hedges begin moving funds due to taxation and other issues.

    As for my prophecies and predictions about Trump, 95% chance for landslide favoring Trump. Main sewer will declare election for Kama. Presidential elections contested until Nov 12-nov 20, if not Jan 2021.

    Whomever remains in power past Jan 20, 2021, is the Winner of the Duel/Battle.

    Did I miss something? Oh yea, Biden, even if he wins, won’t last beyond 2022. That includes Kama.

    California will flip Red. Been working on that since before Aug 14.

    California has a high chance of flipping Trump too.

    I would like to flip Cali to Trump, but Red may be the best I can do with the current energies I can allocate.

    https://twitter.com/Ymarsakar/status/1294394998197309442

    If Americans hadn’t been stupid enough to create Google and Facebook giants using their slave income, things may be different, but we fight the war with the army we are given.

  72. I agree with Lorenz Gude.

    The comments here are mostly optimistic, by an optimistic and informed readership, who I fear do not recognize how stupid many ( most?) Americans have become, educated down and indoctrinated. Our service economy will become a colony of China under the Dems. The Dems love the power to oppress and suppress due to the Wuhan virus. They are, in short, evil.

    I am not optimistic, but I am prepared to be joyful!

  73. I am cautiously optimistic, but worried. Not reading polls and comments very carefully, because at this point, what will be, will be.

    I went to church this morning and, temporarily freed from my sins, prayed most earnestly for this country. May God be with us.

  75. Fortune and MarketWatch say the market predicts a Biden win based on the S&P slope during July 31 – Oct 31. If S&P increases, the incumbent is re-elected. If it declines, the incumbent will be replaced.

    This metric has a a respectable, though not perfect, history. It did predict Trump’s 2016 win. (S&P declined 2.2% in the specified three-months.)

    This year S&P declined 0.5%, so by rights it does forecast a Biden win, but the indicator is not strong.

    But this has been such a bizarre year with Covid plus the two fast market run-ups, I wouldn’t be surprised if this election is another exception.

  76. “The only people who have even the vaguest ideas are those pollsters working in either of the campaigns.” [Tuvea @ 11:53 pm]

    This raises a point I have always wondered about. Pundits talk about internal polling as if it is some secret society which is more accurate than the public polls in the media. Why? Do they have secret algorithms which are somehow more accurate and insightful than those of public polls? If so, why aren’t we using them publicly If not, why do we keep referring to them as if they were the Illuminati? Can anyone explain the supposed increased credibility we give to these internal polls?

    ““they win by making you think you’re alone“ (sorry for quoting a bad movie made by lefties but i really like it). This is the reason they made these [public] polls, . . . ” [Dave @ 1:25 am]

    This, then, would make one suspect that the public polls are either conspiratorial (they’ve planned it this way) or all affected by Gleichschaltung (they are all affected by the same thought-process). If the latter, then why would the internal polls not be affected in the same way and not be any more accurate than the public polling?

  77. “This year S&P declined 0.5%, so by rights it does forecast a Biden win, but the indicator is not strong.” [Huxley @ 11:40 am]

    While I agree with this observation, FWIW there is still one more trading day before the election.

  78. om, on “impeachment theater for the next 4 years and rampant lawfare in the other branch.”
    But, if Barr actually does, what Mark Wauck etc., quite expect, such impeachment theater/ rampant lawfare wiil, at best, be far less effective than recently.
    The Dems will be on their heels like *never* before.
    That’s why I expect them to pull out *all* stops, to forestall DJT winning, and keeping Barr at DoJ.

    What’s to stop the Dems, in the next days, from throwing such curve balls as:
    1) The MSM (e.g. NYT) publishing a “bombshell” tomorrow, claiming to have “proof”, charging DJT with *whatever* (incl. plotting to rebuild Auschwitz, and resume the Holocaust);
    2) antiFa/ BLM etc. deploying arsonists, sharpshooters etc., to force closing of voting places in GOP strongholds, esp. in battleground states.
    Would SCotUS accept GOP appeals, to order polling places erected nearby, and allowed to stay open for at least another day?
    3) antiFa/ BLM etc. deploying thugs, to interdict transportation of ballots from polling places to City Hall, or wherever law requires ballots to be officially counted.
    What could SCotUS do then?
    4) Maybe a bevy of similar ploys.

  79. The polls are saying Trump is not only going to get substantially LESS of the popular vote than he got in 2016, but that Biden is going to get MORE of the popular vote than Obama got in 2012. Not just more than Hillary but essentially on par with what Obama got in 2008.

    I could be spectacularly wrong but I strongly suspect these polls are using turnout models based on the 2018 mid-term elections, where turnout was historically high. But that just means more Presidential year voters turned out. For 2020 to be similarly high, we’d have to have around 70% turnout on November 3, a voter turnout level the U.S. hasn’t seen since 1900. That would mean an extra 30 million more voters in 2020 who haven’t voted before EVER.

    The U.S. total population has only increased by about 8 million since 2016.

    Mike

  80. Our bios are very similar. I also voted for the first time in 1972. My first Republican vote was in 2000, although I did not become comfortable voting Republican until 2004. There was one election where I did feel some terror – Reagan’s win in 1980 because all the smart people told me he was going to start WWIII. I didn’t have enough sense back then to recognize all the good things that he did, but I was at least sentient enough to notice that nothing obviously bad happened. I am still not quite sure whether Trump knows what he is doing or closes his eyes and hits home runs, but (especially given the alternatives) I will go with it.

  81. aNannymouse:

    By lawfare I should have been more dire, impeachment of judges and cabinet officials, circuit court aristocratic edicts that require SCOTUS intervention, and dog and cats living together.

  82. And this, noted over at Ann Athouse (Althouse.blogspot.com):

    “This newspaper has not supported a Republican for president since 1972. But we believe Mr. Trump, for all his faults, is the better choice this year.”
    Say the editors of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette… that’s Pittsburgh, the second-largest city in the state that will probably determine the outcome.

    Not that this is a substantial influencer, but rather another anecdotal building block in a potential preference cascade. Pittsburgh is mentally still a JFK-blue collar-union-Democrat city. This is one of the reasons it has been difficult to dislodge Dem control; many residents still see the Dem party from a 1960s vantage point. I think that the Biden/Harris ticket may have finally dislodged a great part of that perception. One additional anecdote: I know a local blue-collar city ward member who has always been active in local Dem politics. He asked me if I wanted a Trump sign. He said he is voting “straight Red” this year because “they’re all Progressives.” ( I actually know several life-long local Democrats who have voiced the same attitude).

    I have believed since July that there us no way Biden takes PA this year. These
    stories plus the riots in Philadelphia, plus (if accurate) Trump’s 31% black support are major indications that something is underway right under the nose of the MSM. While I doubt that Trump will actually carry the City of Pittsburgh, itself, I am curious to see if he carries the suburbs (i.e., Allegheny County). It’s this city-county total which has historically been the second determinant shutting out the broader statewide Republican vote (n.B., Allegheny County and Philadelphia + its surrounding counties can override the remaining statewide vote just as NYC does to New York state or Chicago in Illinois).

    Granted, all of this is pure speculation on my part, but I’ll even go one step further. With all of the concern regarding litigation over Pennsylvania’s electoral results, and with all of the concentration on PA as THE state that will decide the election, I suspect that this is just another pundit/polling failure. I don’t think any litigation is going to happen (that is unless it is one of several states that are litigated). I think that Trump will carry enough EC votes that solo litigation of PA’s results by either side will be moot and that, in the end, PA’s 20 EC votes will not change the outcome .

    Again, pure speculation on my part from a Pittsburgh ringside seat.

  83. om, on “impeachment of judges and cabinet officials, circuit court aristocratic edicts….”
    Let ’em.
    Senate rejects all such bids, w/ at least the margin of this year’s vote.
    Such antics will help build huge public supt., for Barr to clean massive house.

    Don’t be shocked, if Mitch etc. sing like canaries to Barr, about the real paymasters of the Soft Coup of these recent years.
    See Mark Wauck etc., e.g. at
    https://meaninginhistory.blogspot.com/2020/10/another-thing-that-bill-barr-is-doing.html , and
    https://meaninginhistory.blogspot.com/2020/10/joe-digenova-on-biden-inc-chris-wray.html , where one reader sums things up as follows:
    “Trump (and Barr) must follow the evidence no matter where it leads. If it leads *where it now seems* it will have a *convulsive* effect on the establishment political class….”

  84. aNannyMouse:

    Thanks for the links and the optimistic outlook. The wheels of DOJ certainly do grind slowly….. I haven’t given up on Barr and Durahm, but they aren’t speedy. The link lays out much what Barr has done, more to come, I also hope.

  85. While I agree with this observation, FWIW there is still one more trading day before the election.

    T: However, the metric is explicitly July 31 – Oct 31. Boo!

    Pundits talk about internal polling as if it is some secret society which is more accurate than the public polls in the media.

    T: I’ve wondered about that too. It’s like they keep the Good Stuff in the back, not for ordinary customers.

  86. “It’s like they keep the Good Stuff in the back, not for ordinary customers.” [huxley @ 1:49 pm]

    Great analogy! It makes one wonder what the public polls are even for . . . or good for.

  87. Such antics will help build huge public supt., for Barr to clean massive house.

    aNanyMouse: I’d like to think so, but if Trump loses, all of Barr’s work will likely be for nothing. It seems like a classic case of the perfect being the enemy of the good.

    Until I see Swamp Things going to court or better yet going to jail, I’ve given up on Barr. Maybe his strategy made sense before Covid, when a second term for Trump looked like easy money, but not since.

  88. “If Trump Wins, There Must Be a Reckoning for the Destructive Left”

    The problem with dealing with the destructive Left is that they are supported fully and wholeheartedly by the entire Democrat party and voters. While I am aware that Neo tries hard to distinguish her friends from the rest of the Democrat voters, the reality is that they all buy in on the nasty slander that conservatives are evil, racist, fascist Nazis. Krauthammer nailed it way back in 2002.

    “To understand the workings of American politics, you have to understand this fundamental law: Conservatives think liberals are stupid. Liberals think conservatives are evil.”

    He didn’t limit this to the “crazies”. Because they’re all part of the crazies in this regard. Believing that their opponents are evil is how they feel good about themselves. This belief is essential to their self-esteem (especially to the increasing percentage who no longer participate in organized religion).

    The destructive Left is just the stormtrooper element of the party. But never be confused, they represent the party and its voters.

  89. Miami-Dade and West Palm Beach Dem strongholds are apparently seeing Republican surge in voting. Quote: “That’s like winning the lottery!”

    I live in the beating blue heart of a deep-blue state, and I accidently started a text-message thread that went around to many of my neighbors, and the support for Trump is very strong, but absolutely stealth – no lawn signs anywhere for anybody. I get the vibe of a lot of people sick to death about the rampant civil disturbances in this country, and determined to put a stop to it at the ballot-box.

    And another thing – I doubt that there is a real racist within a hundred miles of here, and people are getting tired of being called than name.

    I’m calling Trump landslide.

  90. om, Wauck argues that the reason for the grinding pace of justice here is, that the case Durham is building is the most sprawling such case in US history.
    And, I suspect, perps were refraining from singing on others because, if they sing and Biden wins, the lucky ones figure to end up wearing Cement Overcoats, or end up like the Spilotros, shortly after Biden took office. (The less lucky ones figure to die only after lingering in agony for days, like [we’re told] happened to some of Tokugawa’s foes.)

  91. As to the lot of the USA, see the Fall of Rome. Too many goodies thrown to the entertainment-dependent minions.

  92. No belief in Barr or Durham without indictments. If Biden wins, no indictments.
    I’ve had dozing dreams of Hillary & Comey being indicted for years …

    Mostly yes to:
    Conservatives think liberals are stupid. Liberals think conservatives are evil.
    But while conservatives think about politics, Liberals believe in politics. They believe Reps and pro-life people are evil. And justify their own fire in use against evil Rep fire.

    Even if Biden wins, it won’t be the end of America, nor of the Hunter Biden scandals. And, as those who were “fooled” into voting Biden see the reality, there will be more anger against the lying Dem foolers. Altho lots of Trump-supporters are not really Republicans, yet.

    The NYT has been looking for, and NOT finding hardly any, Trump 2016 now Biden 2020 voters. I think there are some, not many, but also shy. Tho Trump support is making Reps much less shy in pro-Trump areas.

    Remember Trump & Melania in 2005 after their marriage (on CCN Larry King):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4XfyYFa9yo&feature=emb_rel_end

    Apprentice 3 was on then, DJT was 58. Barron T. was born the next March, 2006.
    Why didn’t I watch this 4 years ago? I didn’t look, it wasn’t offered (YouTube knows me too well, now?).
    Trump: “I love helping people…”
    I didn’t think Trump would win.
    Now I think he will win. He deserves to win, for his policies, and his results.

    Aflac commercial.

  93. Just a little chuckle on this election eve eve from over at Twitchy:

    The Biden Campaign announced that @ladygaga will join Democratic nominee Joe Biden and Dr. Jill Biden at their Election Night Eve drive-in event in Pittsburgh. @KDKA https://t.co/lyMcX2uIva

    What a genius move. Finish off the campaign in the must-win state of Pennsylvania with a rich celebrity who is against fracking:

    Lady Gaga performed at Hillary Clinton’s final event of the 2016 campaign in Raleigh, N.C. https://t.co/aZVCJ0WY1X

    — Anita Kumar (@anitakumar01) November 1, 2020

    What could possibly go wrong?

  95. “Conservatives think liberals are stupid. Liberals think conservatives are evil.“

    It’s a mistake to think this is just a Right/Left thing. This is also about WPWANR, or White People Who Are Not Republican. Does anybody think the super-rich of Silicon Valley are socialists or devotees of identity politics? Do you think the “liberals” who are now big fans of Bill Kristol and the national security state are really liberals? Andrew Sullivan was just run out of a mainstream job by intolerant “liberals”…and he wants to give them exactly what they want, Trump out of the White House?

    A lot of these people don’t give a flip about politics or ideology or policy. They just want to be part of, or imagine they’re part of, a cosmopolitan overclass.

    Mike

  96. Barry Meislin: Nate Silver’s big, gleaming, poll-crunching machine is still a slave to the polls. If the polls are unreliable or fudged or there is a large submerged Trump vote, there is not a lot Silver can do.

    Garbage-in, garbage-out or GIGO, as our computer forefathers coined it. Here’s a delicious Babbage quote I hadn’t seen before:
    _________________________________________________

    On two occasions I have been asked, “Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?” …

    I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.

    –Charles Babbage, “Passages from the Life of a Philosopher”

  97. I don’t know. What do these people do, say, and how do they spend their money? That might tell you what they think. Or you can read their minds remotely and ignore their actions.

  98. If you are worried about the election outcome, then it’s probably because you’re watching too much television. The closer we get to Election Day, the more confident the experts get in their pronouncements, and the higher the probability that they’re completely wrong. It’s the Avenatti rule – and if you don’t remember who that is, you really are watching too much television. Turn it off and don’t turn it on again until 8 pm Election Night.

    There is no reason to vote for Biden, except that he’s not Trump.
    There are dozens of practical / performance reasons to vote for Trump, and voting for Trump because he’s not Biden doesn’t even make the Top 10.

    Trust your eyes; all else are lies. I think Trump is going to win with comfort.

  99. Pennsylvania is a key state to electoral victory. Both Trump and Biden are campaigning there. But my God, the Trump crowds are real and they’re spectacular. Look at the photos!

    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2020/11/01/wow-massive-crowd-for-trump-rally-in-pennsylvania-floors-even-democrats-n1112834

    Democrats hate Trump and want him out of office, true, but they have no passion for Biden for reasons obvious to any honest observer.

    Meanwhile, Trump voters want to keep Dems out of office and they also love Trump.

    We’ll see if Love trumps Hate on Tuesday.

  100. Barry Meislin
    Chapter infinity(?) in CNN fantasies:
    https://twitter.com/McAdooGordon/status/1322945717778993152M/i>

    There is a NYT quote:

    Walter Isaacson: “What we have lost is the sense that we are one nation, all in this together. Donald Trump is the first president in our history who has sought to divide us rather than unite us. We will heal once he leaves, but the scar will endure.” nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opinion/donald-trump-america-polarization.html

    Walter Isaacson has a rather selective memory. Four years ago Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton did a rather good job of dividing us by calling half of Republicans “deplorables.” Not to mention Hillary’s latest attempt uniting us: Hillary Clinton Calls Republicans ‘Cowards, Spineless Enablers’ of Trump.
    Granted, Hillary never was President, but it illustrates what Trump is dealing with- and also why Trump supporters like his fighting back.

  101. Gringo, Biden has called Trump supporters “chumps” and “ugly folks” in the last week.

    I was in a restaurant this evening and saw (but didn’t hear) a Trump ad showing Biden, in the past, saying presumably anti-black things, and a series of puzzled faces of black men as they listen to the clips. This was on ESPN during the SF-Seattle football game. It looked very effective.

  102. “Selective” indeed.
    Isaacson and those who “think” like him all deserve gold medals in the Delusional Olympics.
    Though to be fair to the man, he may not actually believe the nonsense he spews; he just says it because he believes it’s an effective way to attack Trump.

    So he’s giving us a choice: a delusional nincompoop or a morally bankrupt cynic.

    I suppose it’s at times like these when one should, as they say, embrace the power of AND.

  103. My prediction: Trump wins 300 electoral votes and the popular vote by a smidge.

    But watch for shenanigans from the MSM: they’re going to delay calling states, something they have always done in the past, but they’re going to turn it up to 11. Watch for Twitter, Facebook and YouTube to throttle or shadow ban reports of Trump victories in key states.

  104. Successful con men start with a Truth, usually an obvious Truth, like:
    “What we have lost is the sense that we are one nation,”
    which most folk feel is now true.

    And then they add the lie:
    Donald Trump is the first president in our history who has sought to divide us rather than unite us.
    It is the Dems who refused to accept Trump as president who divide us.
    It is the media who have lied about Trump constantly for years who divide us.
    It is the academy who have secretly (and illegally?) discriminated against hiring any Rep pro-life professors for years, for decades … all while hiding behind false “diversity” or “anti-hate speech” reasons, dishonest reasons — lies. Academy liars have long been dividing us.

    This is the election where not ALL the people have been fooled ALL of the time – and I’m pretty sure it’s more than those who have been continually fooled. (And while I guess, but I just don’t know; I feel OK)

    I’d guess the internal polling of campaigns is more “anecdotal”, who they know, and who those folks know, and what they say when they think they are free to say what they really think, without losing their jobs. It’s not “data” for publication, but it’s what a lot of internal folk believe more than public polls.

    Trump – 35 states (80% wins)

  105. I feel excited, calm. No fear.

    Fear is the mindkiller after all.

    Humanity s fate will be decided soon. You all should feel grateful you have front row seats for this.

    This is not the end. This is not the beginning but the prologue is nearing a climax.

  106. I can’t find the Isaacson op-ed at NYT. I end up on a Maureen Dowd anti-Trump article: “Sharknado Goes to Washington.”

    It’s one of several such editorials from the Usual Gang of Thumbsuckers, including David Brooks, Frank Bruni, Charles Blow, Paul Krugman, etc.

    Once more into the breach, dear friends! To drag the corrupt, doddering Joe Biden across the finish line…

    David Brooks may be the pundit I dislike the most for his hypocritical moral posturing. Observe:
    ________________________________________________________

    Joe Biden is the personification of decency, and if he wins he’ll do his best to restore our standards of behavior. But a lot of people on the hard left and the hard right now consider politics a war of all against all, where the ends justify any means.

    Nobody has emerged unscathed. Those of us in the anti-Trump camp will be smiled upon by history I imagine, but we might pause for a moment to consider the mote in our own eye. Our own sins are the only ones we can control.

    Over the past four years we’ve poured out an hourly flow of anti-Trump diatribes and in almost every case they rise to the top of the charts — most liked, most retweeted, most read.

    –David Brooks, “Trump’s Presidency Smashed the ‘Decency Floor'”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/opinion/donald-trump-behavior.html?
    ________________________________________________________

    Note the profound lie in the first sentence followed by the patented Brooks hand-wringing over both sides, which he observes from his angelic vantage point halfway to heaven, and implores us poor humans kindly to do better.

  107. I had a dream involving a conversation with A. Cuomo last night. Contrary to expectation, it was relatively pleasant. It probably stemmed from a combination of the impression left by having watched a short message of his from the day before, which illustrated his somewhat awkward but well-meant sense of humor, and the fact that he seems to have just changed the travel quarantine rules again.

    Then during my nap this afternoon, I had one with President Trump in it – an SUV full of what I took to be South Africans or something was getting aggressive with him (though he had initiated some altercation or other), and they tried to back up over him, damaging my car in the process. (This was all going on in the church parking lot while I was standing there.) Secret Service nowhere to be found, 9-1-1 line had gone dead. Then a couple of the SUV occupants tried to steal from some craft vendors that were set up outside.

    I don’t know what it means; I merely report.

  108. huxley:

    Joe Biden is the personification of decency – how can anyone write that with a straight face? Seriously. How can anyone listen to the man talk, hear what he says, or even know anything about his history, and say that? It really does make me think people have gone stark raving mad, delusional.

    Not to mention the fact that “Dr” Jill’s ex-husband says that Joe and Jill were having an affair while she was still married. Personally, that element doesn’t matter to me, except for the fact that people are on Trump’s case for infidelity and not Biden’s.

  109. Joe Biden is the personification of decency – how can anyone write that with a straight face?

    neo: You got me. Brooks is not stupid, so we’re left with the usual knave/fool problem.

    I’m not a psychotherapist, even on TV, but I read Brooks as a deep narcissist, who reaches his conclusions based on his self-image as a great political thinker and moral teacher above the squabbling fray — not to mention that he gets paid very well for this act.
    _____________________________

    [David Brooks] Net Worth in 2020: $20 million

    https://www.wealthypersons.com/david-brooks-net-worth-2020-2021/

  110. For those who may have forgotten, David Brooks was the sort-of-conservative who leapt aboard the Obama “Love Train” early in 2005 with the memorable line about how impressed Brooks was with the crease in Obama’s trousers:
    ______________________________________________

    In the spring of 2005, New York Times columnist David Brooks arrived at then-Senator Barack Obama’s office for a chat. Brooks, a conservative writer who joined the Times in 2003 from The Weekly Standard, had never met Obama before. But, as they chewed over the finer points of Edmund Burke, it didn’t take long for the two men to click. “I don’t want to sound like I’m bragging,” Brooks recently told me, “but usually when I talk to senators, while they may know a policy area better than me, they generally don’t know political philosophy better than me. I got the sense he knew both better than me.”

    That first encounter is still vivid in Brooks’s mind. “I remember distinctly an image of–we were sitting on his couches, and I was looking at his pant leg and his perfectly creased pant,” Brooks says, “and I’m thinking, a) he’s going to be president and b) he’ll be a very good president.” In the fall of 2006, two days after Obama’s The Audacity of Hope hit bookstores, Brooks published a glowing Times column. The headline was “Run, Barack, Run.”

    –Gabriel Sherman, “The Courtship”
    https://newrepublic.com/article/68823/the-courtship
    ______________________________________________

    I think it was one narcissist falling in love with another narcissist.

  111. }}} Jon Baker: “as long as you understand that mature faith means being willing to accept something different than what you asked for.”

    Actually, mature faith is realizing that nothing you ask for is being granted, ever. You talk to God not to tell Him what you want, which He already knows, but to make yourself listen to what He has to say to you about that thing.

    What happens is what God seeks to make happen for His reasons. Our pleas, truly, can have no effect on that, because, face it — he already knows them long before we ever thought them, and were factored into whatever decisions He was going to make long long ago. Thinking He ever actually grants us anything we asked for, because we asked for it, is assuming too much on the relationship, and our position in His Grand Scheme of Things…

    We get what we need, never what we want. Because we rarely know what we actually need, the connection is limited.

    Prayer is all about listening to Him, not asking him for things… other than, perhaps, an understanding of Why Things Are As They Are.

    When we are capable of grasping that — mentally or conceptually — He tends to give us the answers, in my experience. If you’re not getting the answer, it may be that it is simply beyond your capacity to understand its complexity.

    My take on it. You may agree, disagree, consider, or ignore, as you wish.

  112. }}}To grossly oversimplify, when the wonderfully productive unregulated capitalism that followed the Civil War crashed in the Great Depression

    Except the Great Depression was nothing of the sort. It was a direct effect of the incorrect actions of government, via the Federal Reserve. The Boom-and-Bust cycle is an inherent part of any economy according to the Austrians, and I do believe that, on this, at least, they are partly correct… You have boom cycles when everyone is making investments… Eventually, it becomes clear that some have failed. The bust kicks in, clears out the deadwood, and resets the economy for another boom cycle. This happened a number of times post-Civil War, and the last one, in 2007, scared everyone, because there was nothing to moderate it (it would have been far far worse without JP Morgan stepping in to provide money). So they created the Fed, for just that reason. Along comes the next boom cycle (the 20s) and the bust (Black Friday). The Fed tightened the money supply just as things were starting to recover which was exactly the wrong move. Instead of rebounding, it just made the recovery stagger. And stagger again in the late 30s. The only reason we got out of the financial trap was WWII, which, as RAH put it, masked the disease with a high fever. The only good thing that came out of the 30s with regards to the Fed was a realization that tightening the money supply was pretty much the worst possible action.

    In general, boom and bust cycles are an affect of incorrect action — by banks or by government.

    They start with easy money — credit with fewer restrictions than might otherwise be justified, making investments easier — including questionable ones.

    Some of those questionable ones pan out (which is why no one learns “better”), and others (many, if not most) crap out. Now comes the bust, as you liquidate those losses and pay off the debts.

    The old days, the booms were triggered by easy money from the banks. Since the 1920s, they’ve been triggered by easy money from the fed.

  113. OBloodyHell:

    Do you realize you have released the thread Kraken? I sense a coming swarm of economic statistics and contention from the deep dark interwebs. 🙂 Sort of like Voldermort? 🙂

  115. Except the Great Depression was nothing of the sort. It was a direct effect of the incorrect actions of government, via the Federal Reserve. The Boom-and-Bust cycle is an inherent part of any economy according to the Austrians, and I do believe that, on this, at least, they are partly correct

    You had a rapid increase in 1929 and 1930 in the demand for real balances, but no response from the monetary authorities. The monetary base actually declined slightly during the early 1930s and the quantum of M1 declined rapidly as demand deposits were extinguished in bank failures. The response of the Federal Reserve, the Comptroller of the Currency, and the state superintendents of banking was to close the failed banks and send them into bankruptcy court.

    The increase in the propensity of people to hold cash balances and the decline in the money stock was manifest in severe deflation. Real interest rates were on the order of 12% per annum, choking off investment and placing heavy burdens on households in debt. You also had escalating real wages among workers who remained employed in the face of imploding demand for consumer and capital goods, to which the response would have to be layoffs, reductions in hours, or cuts to nominal compensation. (Note the exhortations on the part of Hoover and Roosevelt to avoid cuts in nominal wages; it was perverse).

    You’ll note that the British economy began to improve almost immediately with the devaluation of the pound in September 1931. In re the American economy, such improvement was co-incident with a complex of measures instituted in 1933: the bank holiday, devaluation of the dollar, the end of the classical gold standard, open market operations by the Fed, the RFC lending, the revised architecture of federal banking law (including deposit insurance) and the formation of HOLC to sponsor workouts of mortgages in default.

    It’s not what the Federal Reserve did do in 1929-33 that was the problem. It was that they did very little.

    By the way, the Austrians would be hard put to find an occasion aside from wartime destruction of physical capital wherein per capital production declined by 1/3 in three years and change. That’s not a common and garden business cycle.

  116. Walter Isaacson has a rather selective memory.

    Self-centered and likely never talks to anyone who actually argues with him.

  117. “I read Brooks as a deep narcissist“

    Narcissist? Probably. Deep? Not on your life. There’s nothing deep about Brooks, not even his self-love.

    Mike

  118. If Trump holds his base (likely) and takes 15% of the black vote from the Dems he narrowly wins the national vote and wins the electoral college in a landslide. This a totally reasonable proposition given the unpopularity of Biden with black voters and the increasing popularity of Trump.

  120. For what it’s worth you can add one last minute blue state vote for Trump. I’ve had a change of opinion based on the same fear you express. This election does indeed seem to transcend the individuals. These last heavily attended Trump rallies reinforce that fear – like nothing we’ve witnessed in our lifetimes and during a pandemic. Courage on display.

  121. I will point out. Do not trust Google to not shade the results of a search any more.

    At the least, use DuckDuckGo as a secondary search, if not the primary one.

    Example — I know for a fact that there is an article about Jake Tapper “fact checking” himself — that is, he has commented about Trump and the whole “denying white supremacists”. He ALSO tweeted the fact that Trump DID reject white supremacists after the 2016 debate… :-/

    Google:
    jake tapper fact checks jake tapper
    nothing to that end.
    Duckduckgo
    1st actual search result.

    This isn’t hard, folks, IT’s THE HEADLINE of the piece.

  123. Obloodyhell, you’re wrong. Acceptance of God’s will is part of mature faith, and living saints are those who have learned to want what God wants. But. Jesus Christ directly commanded us to ask for what we need, not to hold off and scoff at our own wants and needs.

    Living saints and wonder workers have prayed more than anybody, picking up the needs and wants of thousands of people in many cases! And the angels and saints in Heaven are involved deeply in this process, as we see in Revelation and other Bible books.

    Everyone I know who has gone the route of “I won’t have the audacity to ask” has become an atheist, a pagan, a Buddhist, etc. Please reconsider. Ask for an egg or a fish when you need one, because your Father loves you. Ask for your daily bread, and to not be put to the test.

    And yes, your wants and needs were known from the beginning and His Providence has always included plans to help you. But why should He give more than the minimum, if you are too proud to ask Him even to pass the salt?

  125. Donald Trump has broken the Democratic Party. The democrats will not win another national election for a long, long time if ever. Their brand is that damaged.
    Trump is going to win around +/-336 electoral votes, keep the Senate, and flip the House. How? Patriots, of all colors, creeds, persuasions, are going to vote in record numbers for Love of Country. As many as 25-30% of them will be registered democrats, who have recognized the CON, and will never vote democrat again. Now lets retake our schools and start teaching our children about American history and values.

  126. The threat of terror and intimidation continues (if couched in “who-in-tarnation-let-YOU-decide-to-wander-off-the-plantation” style).
    Approaches, however, do show—subtle(!)—differences…:

    https://nypost.com/2020/11/02/james-clyburn-says-he-will-have-to-pray-for-black-trump-voters/
    https://dailycaller.com/2020/11/01/maxine-waters-blasts-black-trump-voters/

    And although all the praying and caterwauling may be considered “Democracy in Action” (at least by some) I remain puzzled, flabbergasted, dazed and confused: don’t they realize that they’re referring to voters who are, officially, “not Black”….?
    And if not, WHY NOT??!

  128. There’s “…election terror…” and intimidation.

    And then there’s “post-election terror” and intimidation:
    https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/10/30/shut-down-dc-targets-conservative-organizations-as-trump-boosters/
    H/T Instapundit.

    Served up with large doses of fulsome, fentanylic Democratic Party / MSCM approval and encouragement (matched by the obligatory deranged spin)—of no doubt “mythic” and “ideational” proportions….
    (Wonder what SNL’s take will be?)

  129. The support of Pennsylvanians for Trump is marvelous—a wonder to behold—and the endorsement of the “Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tremendously encouraging; nonetheless, seems the battle for Pennsylvania will likely be brutal.

    Compare and contrast:
    https://spectator.org/stealing-pennsylvania/
    H/T Powerline blog
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/pennsylvania-election-officials-rattled-after-trump-campaign-requests-names-ballot

    File under: How DARE you Fascists try to prevent us from stealing this election!!

  131. Battle lines are being drawn.
    Can there be any doubt that the Democratic Party—nomenklatura and apparatchiks—and their helots in the MSCM have their fulminatory rants, editorials, op-eds and articles written, ready and primed (perhaps with a few blanks here and there to fill in)?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/non-scalable-fence-built-around-white-house-250-soldiers-standby-handle-election-night

    So let’s take a stab at it: in full PRAVDA mode (the one we’ve been accustomed to now for too long), they will accuse the Wall Builder of subverting civil liberties, betraying the American way and attacking peaceful protesters.

    And BUILDING WALLS!!

  132. It is really hard to build a wall in a swamp. In the Monty Python wedding sketch the groom’s father talks about having to build his castle many times because it is in a swamp. Persistence?

  134. First off, forget and ignore the polls. They’re only there to shape public opinion, not to measure it (remember 2016?)

    Alternatively, stop the vote and use the polls to determine the outcome.

    Personally, I lean a bit toward the first option.

  135. Before everyone starts rewriting history after the election, it might be good to reflect on what should be learned from the last four years win or lose.

    I can think of two things Republicans/conservatives should learn:

    1. You CANNOT allow the mainstream media to dictate the terms of debate any longer. If you can find a more courteous way of doing that than Donald Trump, great.

    2. Rich people are not your friend. They may not be your enemy, but they are not your friend. Virtually ALL of the worst aspects of the Left are being funded not by mass movements but by billionaires and millionaires, most of whom probably don’t give a damn about anything but virtue-signaling to their peers how wonderful they are.

    Mike

  136. 1. What would we do without Captain Obvious.

    2. What would we do without assumptions based on envy. Distrusting anyone who has more that myself. Thou shall not covet.

    Sad.

  137. How are you not dehydrated at this point?

    And thanks for demonstrating the problem. Tech oligarchs are OPENLY trying to defeat Donald Trump and elect Joe Biden and like a good little sheep, om is ready and willing to bend over and let them get away with it.

    Envy is bad. Sycophancy isn’t any better.

    Mike

  138. 538 still has a Trump victory at 10% likelihood. Back in 2016 they had him at 28% which, given the narrow margins which put Trump across in the Electoral College, sounds reasonable.

    But 10% smells absolutely rotten. Unless one has gone full TDS, Trump is a more known and attractive quantity as President this time around plus he has the incumbent advantage.

    True, the Democrats have done their deceitful best to hang Covid around his neck and somewhat succeeded, but they have also hung all the systemic racism, riots, trans craziness, Green New Deal and anti-fossil fuels around their own.

    Biden may not be as unlikeable as Hillary, but he has other deficits — age, mental issues, and corruption — working against him.

    I still can’t figure out with any certainty who theTrump defectors are boosting Biden’s poll numbers. Pollsters say they won’t make the mistakes from last time, but conservatives have much more reason to stay hidden in 2020 than in 2016.

    And today we see this:

    “If New Batch of Polls are Correct, Trump Will Soar Past 300 Electoral Votes”
    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2020/11/02/new-polls-show-electoral-college-massacre-for-biden-from-minnesota-to-new-hampshire-n2579220

  139. Bunge:

    Is this the best you have? Again, bring your insults beyond junior high school level or are you stuck there?

    Your argument is that all rich people are untrustworthy. That is at best simplistic and crude.

    Insults don’t change what you write.

  140. Until the Democratic left settles down, if ever, I think those who vote Republican are crazy to answer poll questions truthfully.

    All that information gets collected and recorded in eternal databases. They may say your information is confidential, but everyone knows better than that now.

  142. Pingback:So, Ya Want To Talk About Polls? | The Universal Spectator

  143. Barry Meislin:

    Someone made a “Communists for Biden” sign out of a 4X8 sheet of plywood/OSB and put it up next to a major intersection about 2 weeks ago. It hasn’t been taken down. It is next to a 4×8 Trump/Pence 2020 sign. The Trump/Pence 2020 sign has been vandalized often.

  144. Ah, finally, some refreshing honesty!

    (Between you ‘n me, I think we should ALL be very glad they left that sign up.)

  145. “538 still has a Trump victory at 10% likelihood . . . But 10% smells absolutely rotten. Unless one has gone full TDS . . . ” [huxley @ 3:07 pm]

    . . . or, unless it is battlespace preparation to justify claims of a fraudulent election when Trump wins. Clinton’s 83% chance of winning in 2016 meant that her presidency was a foregone conclusion justifying rejection of any other result and a coup to right the “wrong.” How much more so for a Biden 90% chance of winning?

  146. “And today we see this:…”

    Know, however, that the Democrats and their shock troops on the street and their lawfare hyenas in the courts will not stop.
    Nor will the mail-in ballots. They’ll just keep on coming and anyone objecting to them will be tarred with attempting to “criminally obstruct” the election.

    It’s the Democratic Party way. The path of virtue!

    And they have no intention of losing this time. No, not this time.

    And so, numbers, results will be meaningless for them—unless they come out on top, of course.

    So if Trump wins by very little, it will be proof that he cheated.
    And if he wins by a landslide, it will be even stronger proof that he cheated.

    (“Win-win” Democratic Party style.)

    And since Trump “cheated”—clearly, indisputably—the Democratic Party will just have to keep on encouraging its people to tear down the country. We were, after all, warned by Michelle. All of use. We cannot plead ignorance. And not just by Michelle.

    “We warned him not to win the first time around. He flipped us the finger.
    “And we warned him—again—not to win the second time around.
    “That son of a gun just won’t listen.
    “So it’s obvious who’s to blame.
    “We would prefer otherwise, we assure you.
    “It’s not our fault.

    “Just look at what that orange-haired bast**d is making us do!”

  147. nofreelunch and Barry: hello!

    I read the Pittsburgh paper’s endorsement and find it somewhat weak tea in the sense that some of its justification (though by no means all) comes from the rather ridiculous nature of what the opposing ticket is offering – this year. It notes the President’s record of accomplishments pertaining to energy independence, trade, even the Supreme Court appointments; contrasts these with the swill of the Green New Deal and the woke crowd; and yet there is a certain lack of enthusiasm, bordering on distaste, like swallowing a pill they know they should take but which isn’t going down very well. The paper’s editors realize that on the merits, Trump is the superior choice – this time – but there is something in it that suggests that if only someone like Obama were on the ballot for the Dems again – you know, personable, relatively younger, less moribund – the Post-Gazette might indeed be willing to switch or at least go neutral.

    Funny that they close by mirroring Cruz’ exhortation at the 2016 GOP convention: “vote your conscience”. Not that I think Cruz was wrong, or that this paper’s reasons for saying it are the same as Cruz’ at the time; but it is an odd echo. Well, I’ll take it; not that I have any particular dog in the fight over western PA, since I’m not there.

    As for the Democrats not winning for a long time – I think this will depend on the GOP maintaining this trend of populist success, for which it will need strong candidates who believe in what for the moment I will have to call ‘Trumpism’ and who can credibly uphold its tenets. (Would be fascinating to see what Reagan would have made of all this.) Someone has to carry this onward, preferably several someones – if it remains a purely personal phenomenon, it will flame out after a couple of election cycles at most and we’ll be back to business as usual. That’s key: succession planning! There is potential in the GOP bench, but the question is still open.

  148. Philip, on “some of its justification… comes from the rather ridiculous nature of what the opposing ticket is offering….)
    Given we’re talking about a historically Dem paper, that goes with the territory.
    A line DJT could’ve used in touting this result, is that the Gazette had the sense to see, that he’s not running against Moses or Jesus, but against a walking corpse, who only became nominee due to his Dem foes all being, at best, obvious hacks for bratty special interests.

  149. suburbanbanshee on November 2, 2020 at 7:50 am said:
    Obloodyhell, you’re wrong. Acceptance of God’s will is part of mature faith, and living saints are those who have learned to want what God wants. But. Jesus Christ directly commanded us to ask for what we need, not to hold off and scoff at our own wants and needs.

    Living saints and wonder workers have prayed more than anybody, picking up the needs and wants of thousands of people in many cases! And the angels and saints in Heaven are involved deeply in this process, as we see in Revelation and other Bible books.

    Everyone I know who has gone the route of “I won’t have the audacity to ask” has become an atheist, a pagan, a Buddhist, etc. Please reconsider. Ask for an egg or a fish when you need one, because your Father loves you. Ask for your daily bread, and to not be put to the test.

    And yes, your wants and needs were known from the beginning and His Providence has always included plans to help you. But why should He give more than the minimum, if you are too proud to ask Him even to pass the salt?

    I don’t think this comment is entirely correct but it is essentially correct, certainly in the spiritual path.

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