Cooking the COVID books
I’m not sure why this is being treated as news. I wrote about the prevalence of comorbidities in COVID deaths a long time ago (see this, for example, as well as this).
Here’s the latest, however:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has quietly published information indicating that just 6 percent of victims who died from COVID-19 had no other co-morbidities, highly suggesting the disease is far less lethal to healthy people.
And if that’s the case, then the total U.S. coronavirus death count is likely way overblown, according to investigative reporter Jordan Schachtel, who uncovered the information and posted it online.
“The chatter circulating social media is accurate: CDC has reported that only 6% of COVID-19 deaths in the United States occurred in people w/out any comorbidities. Remember, the real # is significantly lower, given US standard for recording COVID deaths,” Schachtel wrote in a Twitter thread with a link to the health agency’s page containing the information, as well as a screenshot.
You can find the details at the link. But I would caution that, as I wrote in some of my earlier pieces on the subject, some of the comorbidities are extremely prevalent conditions in people over sixty, such as hypertension. So it becomes very difficult to know – and I have yet to come across research that purports to say – whether it’s that COVID is generally more deadly in that age group, or whether it specifically targets those with comorbidities in all age groups. I’ve tried to tease out that data, but so far have been unsuccessful. Again, please see this for one of my early efforts, written on April 2 of this year.
COVID has been with us in the US for over seven months. You’d think we would have learned more by now, at least about the statistics. Those supplying the information increasingly look like knaves or fools or both, take your choice.
And by the way, while we’re at it, why have I seen nothing since way back at the beginning about how long the COVID virus actually remains viable on objects? In other words: can you catch COVID from something you buy in the store? The original information was tentative. Are we still advised to be washing our groceries and being completely OCD about that? I realize that by now everyone has his or her own routine, and some are ignoring such suggestions. But I’m wondering why the researchers haven’t updated their information, which was preliminary at best over a half-year ago.
Then there’s the question of whether I’d trust what they say at this point.
Speaking of trust, here’s what the public currently thinks of a COVID vaccine and whether they would take it:
A third of Americans would not agree with taking a coronavirus vaccine, were one available, according to a multinational survey, which found the US to be one of the most vaccine-sceptical nations worldwide…
The reason most cited by Americans who suggested they would not get a coronavirus vaccine was worry about potential side effects (60 percent). Over a third (37 percent) said they didn’t believe it would be effective, while a fifth (20 percent) said they were against vaccines in general. Nineteen percent said they felt they were not enough at risk to get a vaccine.
Going to the poll report itself, I can’t find any details about the age of respondents. It seems to me that among younger people, not taking a vaccine right after it’s been developed is probably a reasonable position. The idea is that for them the risks of the vaccine might be higher than the risks of the illness. For someone like me, though, with one pre-existing condition at least, and of a certain age group, my thought at the moment is that it’s better to get the vaccine.
If one-third of the US population doesn’t get the vaccine, and two-thirds gets it – and if the vaccine is fairly effective – it should make the disease far far less prevalent even for the unvaccinated. It wouldn’t totally eliminate it, probably, but it would make it considerably harder for the disease to spread.
I know a family who had a younger person test positive. No one else in the extended family, in multiple households, who had been living with the person and sharing food and water with the person, ever tested positive. However, given reporting standards in the jurisdiction, it is likely that every person in both households is counted as a “case.”
This sort of thing is affecting “case” counts.
Skeptics also wonder how many “Covid” deaths are from every car accident and homicide victim, every roofer falling off a roof, etc, who happens to test positive to a CV19 test.
As a wag noted, though I can’t remember where, we are in a “casedemic” not a pandemic anymore.
I spent a good 2 hours going over that CDC data, and remembering that my mother who died last year on her death certificate had 3 codes listed: 1 primary cause, and 2 secondary. Knowing the virus attacks the respiratory system we can take out those numbers. If you adjust for the ridiculous co-morbidities, such as poisoning, dementia, etc. I got a number of COVID fatalities close to 97,000 down from the 160k+.
Yesterday FL had a huge spike in cases. Turns out, as reported in the WSJ, that Quest Diagnostics were sitting on test results from 2 months ago, and the actual case count was less than half of what was reported.
Yep…fools and knaves all around. Take off the damn masks and just get back to normal. I don’t think this is even close to 1968 or 1958 except for the extreme cultural difference of our current “no risk at all!! Safe Spaces!!” society.
The icing on top of my example is that the person in question may not have ever been ill at all. It’s unclear from the story we heard from the grandparents, but it may have been nothing more than a Millennial dutifully going to the local drug store to get tested – because testing is sooooooo important. (You know, because social media says it’s so.) But yeah, possibly 0 actual sick people and something like 10+ “cases” added to that area’s case counts.
In that area, Millennials account for the majority of “cases” and virtually no serious illnesses much less deaths.
It is not clear whether ‘comorbidities’ in this report are limited to conditions that existed *before* the person contracted Covid-19, or also include those that were a side effect of the disease itself. I’ve seen it stated, by someone who should know, that it includes both. But CDC’s own language on the report, while admittedly not as clear as it should be, seems to imply that it’s only the first type.
“A third of Americans would not agree with taking a coronavirus vaccine, were one available, according to a multinational survey, which found the US to be one of the most vaccine-sceptical nations worldwide . . . .”
Tell ya what. Before I undergo vaccination, I want to see the following vaccinated, and see how they fare:
1- Dr. Fauci;
2- Dr. Birx;
3- Dr. Redfield;
4- Madame Pelosi;
5- the Biden Camp, including Biden and Harris;
6- All Democrat members of Congress who insist that we “follow the science”.
Deal?
This should have all been over several months ago if the people in charge ever looked at and understood the numbers. Our governor puts out a very helpful web page daily (until August 12 when they decided to make it uninformative) that has all the information need. They are in love with cases, health indicators, blah, blah, blah which makes for real difficulty finding the important information, but it’s there. The only statistic that counts is deaths, everything else is chaff intended to scare the rubes.
My summary, it’s a dangerous disease for the elderly in long term care. Everyone else can and should go about their daily lives without masks or fear.
Go to the web page
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-august-10-2020/download
if you want to follow along.
MA (population 6.9 million) as of August 10, 2020
(page 1) Total Deaths: 8519
(page 16) Deaths and Death Rate by Age Group, you’ll find
deaths ages 0 to 20: 0
deaths ages 20 to 60: 460
deaths ages 60 to 69: 897
deaths ages 70 to 79: 1896
deaths ages 80+: 5489
Average age of death: 82
Notice that under 60, and even under 70, there’s no significant danger of death.
(page 18) Total Deaths with Underlying Conditions(completed investigations): 4364 yes, 79 no
In other words, 98% had an underlying condition
(page20) Probable or confirmed deaths in long term care Facilities: 5579
The people most affected are sick elderly people in long term care in their 70s and above.
To paraphrase a famous song, Hey governor, leave us alone.
I should have added that the governor of Florida noticed this early on and took care of the elderly. Their death rate per million is 542 versus 1317 for MA, about a third the rate.
I’m 69 years old and I’m not afraid of either COVID or the vaccine. I go along with wearing the mask, etc. as a courtesy to those who are. When the vaccine becomes available I’m going to take it just to increase herd immunity. At that point I’m done with worrying about COVID or anyone else who is.
For what it’s worth, I’ve volunteered to be a subject in one of the trials here in Michigan but haven’t heard back.
There have been quite a few of the people I have grown to trust that are downplaying this 6% thing. The guy that goes by The Ethical Skeptic on twitter puts the number at more like 28% which is still pretty interesting.
The bigger story was the New York Times story from last weekend that estimated as many as 90% of PCR positives are not even infectious and some may have never been because the testing is set at such a minute level as it picks up dead virus.
Apparently many US labs set the levels at 40 while in Europe the levels are 30-35 and some even think the better level is around 25 which would mean we are labeling thousands of ‘cases’ which are really nothing.
It really has become a ‘casedemic’ in a lot of places like college campuses. Hundreds of ‘cases’ but virtually no illness.
What an absolute disaster this has been on every level. Outrageous.
Ethical Skeptic calculates that about 50% of positive cases are these trivial dead RNA positives. That is a huge number.
He has a ton of charts on his twitter account that some might like if you are really into breaking this down and are interested.
One little example of how this going in Florida today they reported 149 deaths spanning way back into July through recent days but the interesting thing is the MEDIAN age is 93 years old.
Median. 93. Think about who is dying.
And there are over 500 positives reported at Kansas U. zero hospitalizations. Over 1500 combined in a group of southeast universities including U. of Alabama zero hospitalizations. ZERO.
These are the ‘cases’ that are driving the current ‘casedemic’.
Paul in Boston:
And here in your neighbor Connecticut, we have averaged less than 1 death per day for 40 days now. (I REALLY wish I could show the graph). Is our governor moving tp phase 3? Of course not. Let’s keep strangling the economy of the state that has the worse economy in the country.
can you catch COVID from something you buy in the store?
My cardiac MD told me quite strongly in July that the vast majority of the Covid-sufferers were infected via breathing close atmospheres, not through identifiable surface contacts. I’m 80, pretty spry, and refuse to worry – except for all the small family “non-essential” businesses which are being ruined by our Democratic Governor and Mayors via their oh-so cautious decrees.
“A third of Americans would not agree with taking a coronavirus vaccine, were one available….”
If Bill Gates is pimping the vaccine, I’ll wait until they come out with Version 3.11 and wait until I’ve heard the consumer reports.
Ah, but anything that makes orangemanbad bad is good.
The equivalent of Mueller (and friends) keeping his “investigation” going right up, as close as he possibly could, into the 2018 elections even though from very early on he knew that HE HAD NOTHING on Trump.
Same tactics. Different—and far more critical—elections.
…and if that ploy doesn’t work as well as it’s supposed to….well then, Trump is THE REASON why America is burning!!
(Think of the violence—what violence!!—the arson—what arson!!—and the looting—what looting!! as Democratic Party “insurance”….with another possible “impeachment” on the way?)
Imagine if they tested all Americans for antibodies to just about every viral or bacterial infection that exists.
I bet they would find that just about everybody has antibodies to all sorts of infectious diseases that individuals never realized they had or had never had.
Yet, in today’s politically charged / leftist propaganda “news” organs, you can imagine the headlines already; ” 10,000 tested positive today to the bubonic plague,” when every year maybe 5 people in the USA wind up with the plague.
Never before in history, have non-sick people been tested for an ailment and declared “ill,” even though they never manifested any symptoms of the ailment.
Rest assured, none of this BS would have occurred if a demokrat was president.
There simply is no way in hell that this pandemic scam was not orchestrated and planned just to eliminate Trump.
What is scary about all of this is how the populace was manipulated and how easily they all fell in line..
Since when does the governor of a state have the authority to SELECTIVELY shut down business within their state??
It’s OK for Home Depot to stay open but you must shut down your auto dealership.
Its OK to have thousands demonstrating/rioting, but it’s not OK to open your restaurant.
What total BS.
How many deaths have been in HIV patients? Cannot find this issue addressed!!
I’m estimating that 40-60% of the people killed in the 9/11 Twin Towers Attack had 1-4 of the comorbidities of concern for Covid-19 patients. So, would we count fewer deaths as caused by the fire/building collapse because of that?
That’s the equivalent of what the people who consider not counting Covid-19 deaths of people who didn’t have any comorbidities, as I see it.
It’s about the validity of the death count, Bill Rudersdorf. That number has huge political importance (public health has been a tertiary concern – at best – since the start). That people died from the WTC towers collapsing is not in question, but rather how and why. In the case of the Chinese Virus the very fact that they died FROM the disease is what is in question, likely never to be answered.
Putting that aside, it’s also about the relative risk of suffering from the virus, and that of course informs the relative stringency of “public health” facism, and the public’s support thereof. As Neo alluded to: if these co-morbidities tend to kill people at historical rate _x_, and deaths are in line with that rate, is the virus THAT deadly? Or is it picking off the weakest of our herd at rates well above what we’d expect in this mortal plane? Again, it informs how much we should be freaking about it, and who should be doing the freaking out.
Or are you one of those people enjoying your covidcation so much you hope normal life never returns?
I’ll be getting the vaccine if and when it comes out if only so my ex-wife, who has lung damage from pneumonia 8 years ago and considers herself particularly vulnerable*, can’t hold me hostage anymore via our shared-custody 11-year-old daughter.
(* although I don’t think there’s anything wrong with her immune system)