What did blue city mayors and governors think would happen if they allowed their cities to become boring and yet unsafe?
I understand that the current mayors of cities such as New York and Minneapolis and Seattle, as well as some of the governors in their states, are far leftists trying to please a far left base. But they are also mayors of large cities and governors of states with large cities that need to continue to function in such a way as to not drive away city residents and their money, which is needed for taxes to fund city and state services.
Of course, if there are no city services left, there’s no need for the money. But do these mayors really want their own cities to become dysfunctional crime-ridden underpopulated burnt-out shells of their former selves?
Or didn’t they foresee any of this? Have they become so unmoored from reality that they think tax revenue is an unending fountain that can never dry up? Did they think they were in Oleanna?
Surprise! It doesn’t seem that way:
New York is faced with swelling budget holes as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, and the state’s governor is concerned the state’s financial situation may get worse if the city’s wealthiest taxpayers leave for good.
This week, the state’s Democratic governor Andrew Cuomo voiced concern that the longer work-from-home policies are in place, the less likely it is that people who have left the city will return….
Many wealthy individuals abandoned Manhattan for nearby suburbs, or other states entirely, to escape the densely-populated metro as it became an epicenter of the virus outbreak earlier this spring.
Moving executives told FOX Business that the exodus from New York City during the past few months has been “insane.”
Roadway Moving President Ross Sapir, for example, told FOX Business that people are moving out of Manhattan in numbers he has “never seen before,” as his company deals with its busiest season since its 2008 inception.
And many of the residents who have left belong to higher-income brackets.
Well, yes. They have the money to do it, and they don’t even necessarily have to sell their NYC places, because to them the price of a home in the boonies is chump change. It’s not just the virus, either, or the policies around it. Neither the article nor Cuomo mention the other glaring and obvious reason: riot-induced crime and the simultaneous reduction in policing.
Why do people live in New York City in the first place? Some are born and raised there and all their friends are there, and leaving would mean leaving all that. But many are there for the excitement and the culture. If you’ve got money, you can go out to a new play or concert or dance performance every night of the year and not repeat yourself. The same with restaurants, art exhibits, parties – all the offerings of a great (or once-great) city, as well as access to the levers of power. Now all the cultural offerings are meager, and the computer with its possibilities for remote working has made it possible to have some power while living elsewhere.
[NOTE: See also this.]
Mayor de Blasio is likely to be regarded by future historians as the worst leader in the modern history of the city; he is increasingly disliked even by brainless leftists. No-one can deny that the decline of NYC seems to be accelerating, a sad fact indeed, especially for someone who had the good fortune to live in that remarkable place during the time when Giuliani and Bloomberg exercised mostly sound judgment in running things. I am now truly disheartened by what I read of New York, with even my beloved old neighborhood (UWS) experiencing some of what is clearly much worse in other areas and in the other boroughs.
Why does it matter? NY City is going to be underwater in a few decades anyway 🙂
They are trying to turn their city’s into Detroit. Detroit used to be one of the most prosperous city’s in the USA.
The denizens of NYC are used to bending way way over to accommodate ever more unpleasant situations; e.g., crime, transit/garbage strikes, ever higher fees, taxes and fines, bridge/tunnel tolls, etc. etc.
In response to worsening conditions expect the citizenry there to vote for another leftist Mayor like DeBlasio or even a more leftist black/hispanic female, lesbian or transgender. These latter two attributes are worth several million votes even if the candidate died long ago.
Nothing will change there for the better. Recall that when Guiliani was mayor,even though he cleaned up the crime rate, he was HATED by the Manhattan elites and other Upper West Side “progressives.” And he did not have much luck with the municipal unions in NYC which control mass transit, education, trash collection and who can shut down essential services when they choose to.
And if one believes things cannot get worse , please look at Detroit and Baltimore; two cities that have been diving deeper and deeper into the abyss for the last 40 years, with no signs of ascending even to the surface of the excrement pools.
Really now, 50 years ago who would have forecast that the auto capital of the world would today be a Central American hell hole.?
The denizens of Upstate NY and Western NY must take definitive steps to form a new State – the State of Northern and Western NY – and secede from NYC, Long Island and Westchester County. These latter counties are immediately adjacent to NYC, which, due to it’s population, exerts a disproportionate influence on NY State policies (much to the detriment of Upstate NY’ers).
Remind yourself that individual States do not have an electoral college; which means that low population areas far removed from the big cities within their state,literally have very little or no say at all on policies imposed upon them by their big city. liberal progressive, socialist “brethren.”
Oh, Andrew Cuomo is a NYC city slicker; born and raised in Queens, NYC who was elevated into the world of politics by his old man, Mario Cuomo. Like many politicians, Andrew Cuomo never held a real job in his entire adult life.
Now you know why his idea of governing is begging the Federal Govt for everything and not taking any responsibility at all for refusing to make tough decisions.
Those who live in places like Manhattan personify the old saying, “when a man is tired of London, he is tired of life”. I can’t see any of them living away from the city very long. There have been lot of articles lately about homes selling sight unseen in the countryside especially in CA. I think it is another case of covid induced hysteria.
I think most Democrats, including mayors with a D, see the economy as an unending fountain and their job is to aim the fountain so the water is distributed “fairly.”
No need to worry about economic consequences, or at least not until the Republican menace is vanquished.
For various reasons I am ambivalent about Elon Musk, but he nails it in this interview. Musk calls the fountain in my analogy, the “magic horn of plenty.”
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Some people have this idea that the economy is like some magic horn of plenty. It just makes stuff. The goods and the services just come from this magic horn of plenty. If somebody has more stuff, it’s because they took more stuff from this magic horn of plenty.
–Elon Musk, “Joe Rogan Experience” (05/08/2020)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgdrnvsN2lU
_______________________________________________________
I was surprised to hear Musk speak so bluntly, moving as he does in super-blue, super-rich circles.
Well done, Mr. Musk!
The Democrats mostly don’t have the money gene. Most of them have little idea of where wealth comes from and how it’s maintained. They just assume that the taxpayers are paying too little and will gladly pay more for their “good causes” – especially the well to do. Or, they think people won’t have any choice but to pay up if they want to continue to live in their city/state. Hah.
The same blindness to economic facts of life are why socialism/communism never works out. People are not willing to pay more taxes when others aren’t working and are getting the taxpayer’s money redistributed to them. Such an arrangement kills incentives, but the Dems don’t see it. It’s a form of inability to see the true nature of humans and what motivates them. Even when it’s pointed out to them, they still deny the truth of it. Fairness and equity are their gods. In a fair world, they say, all their utopian plans would work.
Yes, in a fair world there wouldn’t be any crime. So, they wouldn’t need police. All issues could be solved by social workers and mental health counselors. Anybody want to by a bridge?
Why is it that this vision of utopia persists? When the evidence is well established that it doesn’t work. It’s a form of magical thinking. But it’s powerful. Millions have been killed trying to make it come true.
Try discussing the debt and the deficit with Democrats. Unless they can use either to bash Republicans, Democrats are entirely uninterested. They just don’t seem to believe the debt and the deficit matter.
I can sort of understand. The alarm bell on the debt has been ringing for decades, but nothing ever gets done, so people might well wonder if maybe the debt doesn’t matter and it’s just something those nasty Republicans like to complain about instead of helping people.
I think most Democrats, including mayors with a D, see the economy as an unending fountain and their job is to aim the fountain so the water is distributed “fairly.”…….For various reasons I am ambivalent about Elon Musk, but he nails it in this interview. Musk calls the fountain in my analogy, the “magic horn of plenty.
That’s what legislators in CT thought. Highest per capita income of the 50 states. Always more to take from the “magic horn of plenty.” Umpteen budget increases later, they are finding out differently. A childhood friend, a staunch Democrat, got elected to the State Leg 2 years ago. Her campaign bullet point was to get the economy growing. But not one iota of recognition that the main reason for the collapsed CT economy is overspending by the state government. In addition, a lot of CT manufacturers, such as Pratt and Whitney, left CT due to taxes and AND increasingly onerous regulations.
It’ll be interesting to see if rioting cities like Minneapolis, Seattle, Portland, and Chicago deliver their 80% (or more) Demo majorities in November. I predict at least a 5% drop.
In fairness to the politicians (not that they deserve it) I think that a large portion of the exodus from NYC is information workers that just discovered (thanks to COVID-19) that they can just as easily work from from home. They can take their big-city salary and buy in the country. They are happy, and their company is happy they don’t have to provide office space. It’s a win-win.
My point being that the phenomenon is not completely due to mismanagement by blue-state pols. Though, no doubt, it was a contributing factor.
Roy Nathanson:
And they only have to pretend to be awake in the mandatory Zoom “woke meeting” of the month? 🙂
Dystopian business opportunity to get big spenders back in town: urban safaris.
Sign a medical/death waiver and you’re good to go!
Have some college friends, classes of 66-68 maybe. Guy worked on The Street all his life, living in a small bungalow in NJ someplace. Sold it and built a fabulous place on an inland lake in Michigan and, to hear him tell it, had money left over from his NJ house sale. Didn’t have to go into the sock or take out a note.
I don’t believe people spend every mortal weekend in museums. And eventually, you have to find eating out isn’t worth the drive–Uber, taxi–and what the appeal is beyond employment and family, I don’t get But I don’t get there very often. Been on a couple of layovers twenty years ago and took a tour bus, and about a year ago for a weekend. Before that, maybe forty years without NYC.
Need a good reason to go back. Even use googleearth street view to look for the appeal.
Nope.
Minnesota has the Twin Cities of MInneapolis and St. Paul. They’re actually the size of San Francisco, each having about 375,000 people. They’re surrounded by rings of suburbs, which push the metro-area population over two million.
I’ve known people who lived in Eden Prairie, a third-ring suburb about 12 miles from the downtown of Minneapolis, who have never been to St Paul. If you’re a hockey or soccer fan one might go, but if not, they won’t come in for theater or ballet or a special restaurant.
Now–they’re not coming for anything at all. And that applies to everyone outstate. A lot of Minnesota families might come in for the state fair (cancelled) a Twins game (no fans allowed) or to the Mall of America (open, but fussy). Worse, they don’t want to come. They all saw the riots, and they did not buy into the relentless “Peaceful!” protest nonsense. Peaceful protests don’t include arson and looting.
The leftist activists that occupy the mayor and council seats in the cities have no idea how difficult it’s going to be to operate with 2/3 of the usual revenue. Add to that crime has doubled–the police are advising people to be ready to hand over money and phones.
Oh, and 1/4 of Minneapolis’ cops have filed for PTSD disability. It’s pretty easy to get. Many more, we are told, are going to file. The city charter commission is refusing to put the “defund” measure on the ballot for this fall’s election. But it would take a decade to replace 200 cops at the usual rate.
Let the blue burn fiery orange/red. Let people suffer the consequences of their decisions. My give a damn is busted.
I think that a large portion of the exodus from NYC is information workers that just discovered (thanks to COVID-19) that they can just as easily work from from home. They can take their big-city salary and buy in the country. They are happy, and their company is happy they don’t have to provide office space. It’s a win-win.
Roy Nathanson: It’s a real phenom. My bet, however, is that it is as much or more the corporations driving this. I’m curious and keeping an eye on it.
“Why is it that this vision of utopia persists? When the evidence is well established that it doesn’t work. It’s a form of magical thinking.” J.J.
“arrested development: Noun – an abnormal state in which development* has stopped prematurely”
* mental & emotional
The heart of arrested development is the juvenile protest; “that’s not fair!”
If the events of the last five months have taught me anything, it is that much of our ruling class are incurious, unintelligent, unreflective Eloi. Yes, there are some clever knaves out there but most, far more than I previously realized, are fools; lacking in even basic knowledge of economics, history, political philosophy, etc. They say what’s put on the teleprompter, sign any directive shoved in front of them, follow whatever the “experts” tell them, believe everything reported in the MSM, and are hopelessly intimidated by the Twitter mob.
My governor, Jay Inslee, is a salient example. He is as vacuous and unimpressive as anyone could be in such a high office. But, he looks and acts the part well enough, regurgitates “correct” talking points with great alacrity and manages never to offend the high priests of leftist orthodoxy. In a deep blue state like Washington, that’s enough.
So, in answer to the question: didn’t progressive governors and mayors foresee any of what’s happening and coming…No I don’t think most did. They are neither intelligent nor curious, nor reflective, nor, frankly, brave enough to do so.
My other bet is corporations are already assessing the drawbacks of Covid remote office work and noticing that ain’t entirely win-win either.
I’m basing on this on the recurrent waves of offshoring software work to Asia. At first it seems to save big money, then the quality problems begin to emerge…
There have also been efforts to develop software with working-at-home American teams and that tends to be mixed too. Problems with motivation and quality. The loss of opportune water cooler/lunch conversations. The looseness of communication can mean loss of focus and wasted time. For employees the loss of face time may mean “out of sight, out of mind” when it comes to raises and promotions.
There are good reasons that people work together on-site. During Covid we’ve gotten by with remote work, but I’ll bet there has been a price corporations have noticed.
And they only have to pretend to be awake in the mandatory Zoom “woke meeting” of the month?
om: Spring classes this year went Zoom halfway through. It was a pleasure to wash dishes during Zoom class or hurl abuse at the screen when the teacher wasn’t getting to the point….
huxley, I worked remotely for 10 years as part of a corp. experiment. After 10 years enough people who knew what they were doing had moved on, retired, died, whatever and the younger newer people frankly needed more adult supervision, it was reduced from 100% virtual to no more than one day a week. My whole team was out of state though so I didn’t feel like commuting again just to talk to people on webex anyway so I retired.
Chases Eagles: Thanks for the data point!
Just my take on the economic “illiteracy” of leftist politicians.
I don ‘t think they are illiterate about econ at all; they just believe that we can go back to the 1950s when top marginal tax rates were in the 70 % to 90% area and the USA did not implode.
I also think lefties look at Cuba and see a literal nirvana; nobody starves, nobody is rich (aside from the ruling elites), everybody is “equal” (i.e., equally poor, except the ruling elites) and of course free education and medical (but bring your own sheets) for all.
What’s there not to like about that??
True, there are no individual rights to speak of, but hey, that’s the price you pay for a “just” society.
The Cuban “model” to lefties – with a Danish/Swedish twist to it – is the pinnacle of a societal and economic model that we here in the USA must strive for.
This is what leftists believe and this is what informs all their economic policies.
So lefties know EXACTLY what the implications and affects their policies will produce; and they are willing to cause “temporary” pain to the citizenry to achieve it.
By temporary, they mean, as long as it takes. And by pain, they mean as much as needs to be applied to achieve their goals.
I have never understood why conservatives keep saying that leftist are economic illiterates.
They are not. They know exactly what they are doing.
I’m wondering if the officials in charge of these cities, counties, and states can totally escape having any real legal responsibility for the consequences of their actions, and their derelictions of duty.
Do they all have complete and total “sovereign immunity?”
Can a citizen, say, whose grandparent was shoved into a nursing home at Gov. Cuomo’s order–and whose grandparent subsequently contracted the Chinese Coronavirus and died–sue Cuomo?
What about a business owner in downtown Charleston—I heard one describing his experience—whose business was being broken into and looted who called the police multiple times and—despite assurances—no police ever showed up, and his store was looted and burned–sue the mayor and/or police chief who refused to let police respond?
Or do these officials expect that given how much time, effort, money, and persistence it takes to pursue such a case, that few–if any can citizens–have the resources to, or will take this route?
John Tyler: “They are not. They know exactly what they are doing.”
They think they know. They are making four bad assumptions.
1. They will be a part of the elites.
2. The vast majority of people will happily accept being equally miserable.
3. Such a system can be maintained without murderous force.
4. The golden goose (The economy) will continue to lay golden eggs.
Any rational person can look at the evidence from history of the continuing failures of Communist countries (Cuba was actually propped up, first by the USSR and then Venezuela. Venezuela is no longer able to provide the fiscal support that Cuba needs. So, they are sinking further into poverty.), and conclude that the system doesn’t work very well. Anyone who believes Cuba is a success has not looked very closely at the island.
Slackers, dopers, drunks, misfits, academics, and other non-producers all think Communism sounds just fine. People who are builders, doers, and have a work ethic mostly realize that it is they who will be fleeced to pay for the non-producers.
The history of Communist countries are replete with stories of vicious competition among those who want to be in the elite. Only the most hardy make it.
Communist country histories are also filled with tales of how the elites had to use brute force to keep the citizens down and in line.
Lastly, Communism always kills the Golden Goose because they don’t understand the role that competitiveness, ambition, and free market forces play in economic success.
I have never understood why conservatives keep saying that leftist are economic illiterates.
They are not. They know exactly what they are doing.
John Tyler: Speaking as a former leftist and as someone who still talks to leftists, that’s not my impression.
For instance, most leftists have the wildly distorted notion that the US spends more on the military than entitlements. Furthermore, these leftists have no idea how much of the federal budget services the national debt. Those sorts of fundamental economic things.
Most of your suppositions about what leftists believe only demonstrate, to my mind, the economic illiteracy of leftists.
Huxley—I’ve written about this subject here before, but it can’t be emphasized enough.
The money spent in our annual Federal Budget is divided into two major categories—into “Mandatory” expenditures—funds which have, by law, to be sequestered and then paid out before any other expenditures are made, and, then, into the remaining funds, the money that can be spent on everything else, the “Discretionary” expenditures.
People tend to fixate on the total U.S. annual budget number, or on the amount of our mounting public deficits or debt.
But, the most frightening and ominous sets of economic figures are the ones which show what percentage of our entire Federal Budget each year is devoted to these Mandatory expenditures–to entitlements like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, to Federal Retirement and Veterans Benefits, to various other social welfare programs, and to Interest on the Public Debt—and, then, to the dwindling percentage of our Federal Budget that remains after those Mandatory expenditures are paid out–those remaining funds which are available for Discretionary expenditures—which pay for everything else—for the cost of running our entire Federal Government, for National Defense, for Foreign Aid, for all Federal Research and Development work, plus everything else.
For 2020 such Mandatory outlays consumed roughly 75% of the entire Federal Budget budget (roughly 65% for all other Mandatory payments, roughly 9% paid for Interest on the Public Debt), with 25% left over for Discretionary expenditures to pay for everything else.
There are a couple of key things to keep in mind here–
One key thing to remember about these “Entitlements” is that the percentage of the Federal Budget that they consume almost invariably and automatically grows each year—this because more people are automatically “entitled” to them just due to normal population growth and to immigration, and as existing Entitlement programs are extended to more and more people, or expanded in coverage or benefits i.e. cost.
Another key thing to realize is that–as the percentage of our Federal budget that is consumed by entitlement spending increases, the percentage of our Federal budget that is available for discretionary expenditures shrinks–which results in our federal government having increasingly less reserves and less room to maneuver–less ability to take advantage of emerging opportunities, and less ability to respond to unforeseen events, and to emergencies.
One more thing to realize is that the amount of those annual mandatory expenditures devoted to “Interest on the Federal Debt” has been extraordinarily low in recent years—because interest rates have been essentially around zero.
But, should interest rates climb back to normal ranges, the increase in the amount of our Federal budget that would have to be paid out for Mandatory “Interest on the Public Debt” payments would dramatically raise the percentage of our Federal Budget that would have to be paid for all Mandatory expenditures.
It has been said that “Social Security” is the “third rail of American politics,” but unless the percentage of our Federal Budget that is devoted to Mandatory expenditures for entitlements such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid is dramatically reduced and/or our economy can be revved up to produce massive increases in GDP and, thus, in tax revenues, we are headed for the situation in which these Mandatory expenditures will eventually and rather quickly grow to consume our entire annual Federal Budgets.
P.S.–Over the last several decades there have been quite a few government Commissions established and many official Reports written, examining the problem of funding Social Security and/or other Entitlement programs, and making recommendations for changes, none of which have really been acted upon, and all of which have been quickly forgotten.
Nonetheless, it is pretty obviously imperative that the increasing cost of Social Security and other Entitlement programs and their benefits be lowered by doing things like—narrowing eligibility, by reducing those benefits, or by making those benefits only begin to cut in at higher ages, etc.
Wait until the various states & local gov’ts decide to curtail working at home by demanding OSHA inspections, etc, on those home offices (with penalties for violations to be given to the employers). Employers will be forced to put employees back into offices that they can have some control over.
Snow on Pine: Nice rundown. Certainly more than I know and I know more than most leftists…
There doesn’t seem to be a practical way for either party to face these realities.
Snow, that’s a nifty explanation of the state of affairs of the fisc. Is the interest on debt service determined mainly by domestic (Fed) or certain international interest rate settings?
At this point, Americans might as well re elect Trump and put Ymar into power.
@Snow on Pine:
Thanks for bringing up the Mandatory/Discretionary distinction:
You say that the “Mandatory” items are “by law.” But, which law?
I ask, because it always seems to me that the two categories are backwards. After-school programs ought to get money if and only if we’ve adequately funded the military and law-enforcement, because if civilization collapses or an invasion chops the country in half a la “Red Dawn” there aren’t gonna be any after-school programs!
So, that should be switched. But what law designates the two categories, such that the repealing/amending of that law would cause them to be switched ’round?
R.C.–According to the explanation given by the WIKI on “Expenditures in the United States Federal Budget,” the distinction between what is a Mandatory expenditure vs. what is a Discretionary one is that Mandatory expenditures are for money that is required to be expended by specific existing laws—for instance various Entitlement benefits–vs. the Discretionary expenditures whose amounts are annually or periodically authorized “at their discretion” by the Congressional Budgetary Committees in each session of Congress as part of the budgetary process/cycle.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expenditures_in_the_United_States_federal_budget.
Nonetheless, it is pretty obviously imperative that the increasing cost of Social Security and other Entitlement programs and their benefits be lowered by doing things like—narrowing eligibility, by reducing those benefits, or by making those benefits only begin to cut in at higher ages, etc.
The problem with Social Security old age benefits is simple to solve. Have cohort-specific retirement ages (recalculated periodically) which ensure that the ratio of the beneficiary population to the working population is stable. Congress just does not feel like doing that. Repairing the Disability program is more challenging.
I see the news that NYC Mayor DeBlasio (real name Warren Willhelm, Jr ) has now ordered the police to set up checkpoints around NYC at which people entering New York city are to be interrogated, and warned that they are subject to a 14 day quarantine with at potential fine of up to $10,000 for disobedience to this edict.
That oughta get the tourists flooding in again!
Calling Snake Plissken, calling Snake Plissken!