Reporting on the second COVID wave
I’ve noticed a smattering of headlines lately in the MSM that seem to be saying that ending the lockdown has produced a spike in cases. I haven’t done more than skim a couple, because spikes in cases are meaningless to me, as I’ve said many times. The important stats involve hospitalizations and deaths.
So I was pleased to see this:
Democrats cite a spike in cases in Florida, Arizona and Texas as evidence of a virus resurgence. But more testing, especially in vulnerable communities, is naturally turning up more cases. Cases in Texas have increased by about a third in the last two weeks, but so have tests. About a quarter of the new cases are in counties with large prisons and meatpacking plants that were never forced to shut down…
Liberals and the media demanded more testing before states could reopen, yet now are criticizing states because more testing has turned up more cases. Keep in mind that New York has reported about the same number of new cases in the last two weeks as Florida, though it ramped up testing earlier so the relative increase appears less significant.
A more important metric is hospitalizations. In Arizona the weekly rolling average for new Covid-19 hospitalizations has been flat for a month. Emergency-room visits for Covid-19 have spiked this week, but the number of ER beds in use hasn’t changed since late April. Hospitals in Arizona (and California) have reported an increase in cases from U.S. citizens and green-card holders returning from Mexico where hospitals are overwhelmed. But with 22% of ICU beds and 62% of ventilators available, Arizona hospitals should have capacity to manage an increase in patients as it reopens.
Texas has also recently reported an uptick in Covid-19 hospitalizations, mostly in the Houston and Austin areas. Current Covid-19 hospitalizations are up about 20% since the state began to reopen, but Gov. Greg Abbott says hospitals aren’t overwhelmed and much of the increase is tied to nursing homes.
The above is actually from an article in the WSJ, to which I don’t have access. If you do, you might want to read the whole thing.
It doesn’t sound alarming, although I suppose that could change. And opening up business is the right thing to do, and in fact it was overdue.
But at this point I think very few people are paying attention to these statistics anymore. The medical authorities and the politicians who did what they said no longer have much if any credibility. They richly earned our lack of trust, and next time they won’t be believed. It’s possible that may even end up backfiring on all of us, I suppose. But that’s the way it is.
I have not been tracking Texas, but I have friends and relatives in Arizona, so that’s one of the places I been keeping stats on from the beginning. I can absolutely say that, regarding Arizona, this is a blatant attempt to gin up panic from nothing. Confirmed coronavirus hospitalizations peaked a month and a half ago and have declined since; the peak for deaths followed by a few days. Major media blitzes through May to get people to go out and get tested because … because why? … got a bunch of people to go get tested for no obvious reason and produced the new cases they were hoping to capitalize on.
What the media panic is not saying is that confirmed COVID cases in Arizona are overwhelmingly among 20-44 year-olds, who have minimal chance of serious illness, and while they ignore that and the actual decline in serious COVID outcomes since April, they’re making a lot of headlines out of dubious stats involving “suspected” cases. Dumbsh1ts don’t go look at the data for themselves; my AZ friends are all in a panic wearing masks again.
The left pathologically wants the peasants in a constant state of fear, all the better to manipulate them. Most people are easily lead into a state of panic. That is why experts and models will never experience a lack of income. IMHO, never trust an expert or their models.
Here in NY state the obnoxious Andrew Cuomo wants to continue his Big Brother routine. Not going to happen. Time to re-open and stay re-opened.
The advice and totalitarian counsel of Merry Andrew and phony baloney Tony Fauci is no longer required.
I did read that WSJ article this morning as we get the paper delivered.
Two things: first I do track Florida and it had the largest increase in cases yesterday at 1700 since a month ago. However, the deaths continue to decline from a high of about 35/day a month ago to abut 5/day now. Obviously, increased testing, as Neo says, is the reason for the case jump. Second, the article briefly mentioned something I think is very important: that states seeing the big jumps like AZ and Utah also had very few cases at the beginning. I suspect they are now catching up with the development of herd immunity. Dr. Ted Noel has a great article on this aspect a few weeks ago: https://townhall.com/columnists/tednoel/2020/06/04/hormesis-the-word-covidwarriors-dont-want-us-to-learn-n2569752?fbclid=IwAR29Or07hfwBJYbQbkfCwp6zf8n7g1NfxEM3spcumLuwWdR2k3NMsa-GNoY
This was the most predictable development ever. When the riots started magically the virus coverage almost totally disappeared and when they died down in many places it came back.
Just one little example I have Comcast and for weeks, months (seems like years) everytime you brought up the guide on your TV there was a tile about the latest virus news (mainly MSNBC of course) and then as if by magic the weekend the riots really took off the tile disappeared from the screen. Gone. Poof! And right on cue earlier this week the tile returned.
So predictable.
Gun control went out the window when the hands off approach to the riots happened. At the beginning of the lockdowns 2 million first time buyers flooded gun stores in blue states. (Most were surprised that they couldn’t walk away with a handgun without paper work and a FBI background check.) Now gun sales are through the roof as LIVs came face to face with the “novel concept” that their safety is their responsibility. Hopefully they are no longer naive fools.
The answer to a return to lockdowns should be an emphatic “no.” The first two weeks were probably justifiable. After that, not.
Covid-19 is real, and really bad for some small portion of humanity. Not so bad for most people.
Vit. D deficiency makes it worse – get sunlight and suntans!
Obesity makes it worse – get more exercise; eat less, or quite a bit less!
Age is co-related with lots of the other co-morbidities like respiratory illnesses and heart problems — die young, stay pretty! (er, just joking!)
One big goal of the Dems is to get more mail-in ballots and more ballot fraud, and win by cheating. Constant lies about OrangeManBad are OK (to good), also.
I’d sure like to hear a coherent explanation from authorities about their Plan for Covid … if they have one. I hate how everything has been surprise diktats handed down from on high.
I don’t see the Magic Vaccine arriving any time soon, if ever. Is it masks and social distancing forever?
Unless there is righteous leftist protest to attend, of course.
Tom Grey,
Right on!
As far as I am concerned, deaths are what count.
From 21 May to 12 June, Texas daily deaths varied from 63 to 6, which is why you need to average. In Texas, the 7-day average for Corona deaths peaked at 38.6 on (29 Apr to ) May 5. It is now at 19.7 (6-12 June). Even with the 7-day average, there is a fair amount of variation.
Starting about 2 weeks ago, the 7-day average started increasing: from 19.6 on 28 May to around 25 in the first week or so of June ( 27 May- 2 Jun, 2-8 June). Since then the 7-day average has fallen to 19.7 for 6-12 June.
If you put it on a 2-week average, there is (not surprisingly) much less variation.
The basic trend in Texas, and all over the US, is DOWN. Outside the 4 Northeast states with the highest death rates (NY, NJ, CT, Mass), the 7-day average for Corona ( excuse me- Winnie the Flu) deaths has fallen from a peak of 1070 on (29 Apr-5 May) to 577 for today. (6-12 June). That’s a fall of 46% from the peak.
7-day average, TX Winnie the Flu deaths.
(20- )27-May 25.6
28-May 19.6
29-May 20.3
30-May 21.7
31-May 21.6
1-Jun 22.4
2-Jun 24.6
3-Jun 23.7
4-Jun 25.3
5-Jun 24.9
6-Jun 24.0
7-Jun 24.6
8-Jun 24.1
9-Jun 22.4
10-Jun 21.7
11-Jun 20.7
(6-)12-Jun 19.7
Corona virus USA
“They richly earned our lack of trust, and next time they won’t be believed.
It’s possible that may even(This will) end up backfiring on all of us,I suppose.” – NeoSeems to me there was some old guy who created a fable about this sort of thing.
Maybe the Gods of the Copy-book Headings are feeling merciful.
https://www.westernjournal.com/company-announces-coronavirus-vaccine-development-way-ahead-schedule/
I was expecting some increase in hospitalizations and deaths from the easing of lockdowns, but the real test will be the numbers after the incubation period for the protests.
There is a real experiment going on between the Blue State protests and the Red State openings.
CHAZ may contribute a case study as well.
However, as someone pointed out somewhere back in the beginning, if COVID-19 is the New Plague, why aren’t the homeless populations all dead?
AesopFan
Well, the answer to the conundrum of the homeless and COVID19 is “it’s people.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Sp-VFBbjpE
The homeless always sleep in dumpsters after all, how convenient. If only the vegans knew what they were really eating.
/sarc 😉
The homeless, the prisons and the cruise ships are the most eye brow raising to me. All three go against the accepted narrative.
The expert class had the excuse before that little was known about the disease and an abundance of caution was called for. I was down with that.
Then the expert class declared that the importance of the First Amendment outweighed everything, and besides, Black Lives Matter and we’re opening now!
Now with Trump rallies on the calendar, it’s the old booga-booga again, real Reign of Terror stuff.
Has anyone noticed that they don’t seem at all concerned with the idea that hypocrisy is supposed to be avoided, or at least done well enough to not be obvious? They don’t care, because it is not about protecting and defending facts. Instead it’s Pure Power Politics.
..”hypocrisy is supposed to be avoided, or at least done well enough to not be obvious?” – Aggie
LOL
Hey, not to worry! We’re all gonna die next week anyway!
https://www.the-sun.com/lifestyle/tech/973452/end-of-the-world-2020-conspiracy-theory-calendar/
For bonus points, see if you can spot the simple math error in the midst of the tin-foil-hat hysteria (which BTW also conforms to the usual “we weren’t right the first two times, but we’ve got it now! method of most apocalyptic predictions).
My money is on aliens appearing on July 2.
The tell is “Nearly half of the states have seen a spike”.
Nearly half is *less* than half; therefore *more* than half of the states haven’t seen a spike, which nobody in the MSM seems to have noticed.
FWIW, Israel has over the past several weeks loosened up many of the restrictions.
Tel Aviv has become a national hot spot.
Also:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/southwestern-beijing-assumes-wartime-emergency-dozens-cases-tied-major-food-market
Barry Meislin:
Hot spot for what: cases? Hospitalizations? Deaths? And how many?
How much of an increase?
How does one define “hot spot”? What I’ve seen so far is generally just “a rise in diagnosed cases, many of them asymptomatic and/or mild.”
https://www.coronatracker.com/country/israel/
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-new-covid-19-infections-in-israel-continue-to-climb-1001331989
Key graf:
“Despite the high number of new cases, the number of people seriously ill has remained stable and so the relaxing of the lockdown is unlikely to be reversed. But more efforts are being made to enforce restrictions such as the mandatory wearing of masks in public and social distancing with more fines being imposed on both individuals and businesses violating instructions.”
Barry Meislin:
Thanks. That’s what I thought.