COVID-19 research: the press interprets
Here’s an article from Time entitled “Up to 80% of COVID-19 Infections Are Asymptomatic, a New Case Report Says.”
Sounds as though that’s good news, right? Ah, but Time doesn’t think so:
The research shows just how prevalent asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 may be—a reality that both suggests official case counts are drastic underestimates, and emphasizes the importance of practicing social distancing even if you feel healthy.
Researchers have known for months that asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 is possible and common, but without population-wide testing, it’s been difficult to estimate how many people get infected without showing symptoms. The new paper provides an example of how widespread asymptomatic transmission can be, at least in a contained environment.
I went to the study thinking I’d read some interesting data about asymptomatic transmission. Here’s the paper. It actually does not even address the issue of asymptomatic transmission or social distancing.
What it does report is that in the closed environment of the ship, 59% of passengers and/or crew ended up testing positive for COVID (128 out of 217 total passengers and crew), but 80% of them were completely asymptomatic. That conforms to many statistics we’ve read from other places. It could just as easily be used to argue for what we’ll call the Swedish Approach rather than more shutdowns and strict distancing.
Another finding was that one person died. The article doesn’t explain who that person might have been. But out of 128 people infected – in what was probably an older-than-average population with a lot of pre-existing conditions – a case fatality rate of under 1% sounds relatively encouraging compared to earlier reports.
Nineteen percent of the infected people (24) were symptomatic, which is also in line with data from, for example, the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Might they not have been the spreaders, or the majority of the spreaders? We simply don’t know – and I don’t see anything in the study that even attempts to tell us – whether the asymptomatic people figured as strongly as the symptomatic in spreading the disease. Maybe they did, maybe they didn’t. But asymptomatic spread is what Time wishes to talk about.
On day 3 the cruise line tried to end the cruise, but the ship ended up in limbo for a while because it was difficult to find a port that would accept it. That’s when most of the disease spread seems to have occurred, and the entire time the passengers were confined to the ship was 28 days. As for social distancing, the ship had embarked after the COVID pandemic was already happening although not yet fully in swing. At the outset, passengers were tested and their temperatures taken regularly, and multiple hand washing stations were placed on the ship. Nevertheless:
The first recorded fever on board the ship was a febrile passenger on day 8. Isolation protocols were immediately commenced, with all passengers confined to cabins and surgical masks issued to all. Full personal protective equipment was used for any contact with any febrile patients, and N95 masks were worn for any contact with passengers in their cabins.
So it sounds as though social distancing of a fairly strict sort was indeed practiced, and it didn’t matter.
The last paragraph of the Time article goes like this:
That’s a particularly important lesson to consider as states reopen and nice weather eats away at many people’s resolve to stay home. The virus can and does spread undetected—and an asymptomatic case can still cause serious illness if it spreads to someone else. Until a vaccine is available, the safest way to keep coronavirus from spreading is to keep your distance from others, whether you’re sick or not.
But that’s not what the study indicates; it really doesn’t address the subject, although it’s what Time seems to want its readers to think it indicates.
This really is the Democrat campaign plan. Keep the economy dead until the election. Sadly for them, it seems to be based on false premises. And yes, I am a doctor.
Neo:
Thanks for fisking the article. Captain Obvious (aka om) concluded it was “sketchy” propaganda after reading just a paragraph or two.
At this point who–with any sense at all–would trust anything that they see, hear, or read about the Chinese Coronavirus–it’s origin, lethality, or the various suggested means to combat it–both social and pharmaceutical–and their effectiveness?
As far as I can see, pretty much everyone involved in presenting what they think is “valid” information has–at some point in the last several weeks–discredited themselves, and sometimes multiple times.
What does seem to be obvious is that it is harder to catch the Chinese Coronavirus if you are outdoors rather than confined indoors, and that it’s main target is those over sixty with pre-existing conditions.
Other than that, I submit that–at this stage of the game–we still don’t know much more with any real certainty.
But what does seem clear is that playing around with statistics and studies to prove political points, to boost one’s ego, deflect blame, or to attract funding, is doing so much to muddy the waters, that it is making discerning what is actually valid information–information you can rely on, and use as guidance when making life and death decisions–almost impossible.
Well of course Time takes the negative interpretation. Your question about whether asymptomatic patients are very contagious is a good one.
I confess that I have stopped paying a lot of attention to the media on this subject. There seems to be little useful information; and much of the limited information is contradictory. However, on the internet–at nominally conservative sites—I glean tidbits. I have seen the numbers for the very high percentage of American deaths that were in, and around, NYC. We knew that; but, the numbers are interesting. The same is true of the percentage of deaths that are associated with nursing homes or long term care facilities. Staggering. It was surprising to see the abnormally high percentage of hospitalizations and deaths that involve Blacks. As I recall, around three times their percentage of the population. Of course, no one would publicly discuss possible on the causes of the latter phenomenon for fear of “racism” accusations.
Another subject that is under reported is a break down of how many people actually contacted the virus through open air contacts. Maybe that data is not available; although I should think that debriefing patients would offer some insight, even without extensive contact tracing. Of course, those insights might show how far off base the draconian shutdowns have been. I expect that in coming months there will be concerted efforts to justify decisions; even if reality has to be fudged.
The formerly great state of California has sort of opened public beaches; but, all of the parking is closed. I wrote to the Governor to inquire as to the logic; but, surprisingly, no response even though I was polite and did not address him as Gruesome Newsom.
This has moved way beyond a health issue into politics.
Since I haven’t mentioned the data I’ve been tracking for awhile: New cases has been declining now for almost 60 days at about 500/day; we’ve gone from a peak of about 30,000 new cases a day in early April to about 8-9000 per day now. A 2/3 reduction and shows no signs of stopping the decline. Serious cases has been flat at around 17,000 for a bit over a month now. As the new cases continues to decline I expect the serious cases will also decline soon. GA, FL, NH, and CT are all on the down side of the Gaussian curve. The one anomaly seems to be NC, which is still flat.
The mask and social distancing has become the new symbol of the virtuous (in their minds) left. I think what’s holding back a real opening of the country is the now ever present threat of law suits against any business who dares defies the prevailing mask/social distance culture.
“The welfare of the people in particular has always been the alibi of tyrants.” Albert Camus
Went to the doctor for a checkup today.
My doctor commended me on wearing a mask. Claimed that the country would not be reopened by October. Claimed that lots of people were still going to die. Claimed that people who wanted to get the economy started again didn’t care if people died, so long as they made money. He said all this with the matter-of-fact confidence of a guy who didn’t suppose anyone could possibly disagree.
At least he was correct that I was, in fact, wearing a mask. I had to, to enter the building. So, he got that part right.
I don’t contradict him because, well, he’s my doctor and good at what he does, in every way, other than this occasional political commentary. Also, he grew up in Venezuela back during the pre-Chavez era when it was wealthy. I don’t think he ever became a U.S. citizen. I don’t think he’ll ever make the adjustment to thinking like an American ought.
Still, it’s tiresome biting one’s tongue. Perhaps in October, if he’s been proven wrong on the economic reopening (as I suspect he will be), I’ll make a point of asking why he was incorrect, and see what he says for himself.
Oldflyer, I’ve been thinking about the disproportionate numbers of black deaths. I wasn’t sure that higher rates of obesity, hypertension, and diabetes were enough to explain it, and then I began reading reports on Vitamin D deficiency and COVID mortality. That might be it. Many Americans are deficient in Vitamin D, and dark-skinned people can make less of the vitamin from sunshine than can light-skinned people.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219423/
this study shows that the infectivity of asymptomatic patients is low.
The moment they started counting people as positive that had never even tested positive the usefulness of the stats was pretty much over and this was mostly driven by money. When you subsidize something you get more of it.
The real problem now is states like mine are using these fraudulent stats to keep us in lockdown.
Avi, interesting, but a China produced paper. I wouldn’t believe anything they produce. After all, if they don’t toe the party line they are disappeared.
Asymptomatic people can still reproduce and spread the virus. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, despite what the fear mongers say. It helps build immunity in the population.
physicsguy:
But it takes them at least 9 months to reproduce. 🙂 😉 😉
Sorry, it’s not what you meant, but it takes little to make me chuckle.
As to how these stats matter in my county in WA (pop. approx 900,000) our dear leader King Jay has decreed that we must have an average of no more than 6 cases over a 14 day period in order to reopen as of today we have an average of 12. There are many days we have 3,4,5 new cases then we magically have 20 which blows our average.
For a county of 900,000 people these minute differences are nothing but hey King Jay has made his judgement and if you are a business don’t dare consider challenging the King or you will face a $10,000 fine.
an example of how widespread asymptomatic transmission can be, at least in a contained environment.
The real greenhouse effect? That said, the art and science of plausible.
Time wants us to wear blinders and look inside our country/community. #NoJudgment #NoLabels #SecularFaith #SocialContagion
Oh and our county death toll was reduced today from 76 to 72 after further review. I assume these four are still dead but maybe one of those COVID deaths by gunshot or car accident.
Experts and their models are worthless, and should be ignored. The guru Fauci has been all over the place since Operation Fear was initiated, saying something on Tuesday and contradicting himself a week later. Seasonal flu and viruses like SARS maybe a threat to people with underlying conditions, but for the most part are not a severe threat to healthy people.
Open up the economy, take off the zombie masks, don’t panic, and use common sense. Most of all, don’t be a sheeple and never join a mob. And, I am tired of “we are all in this together” because obviously we are not.
“Operation Fear”
I hope you don’t mind, parker but I’m stealing that.
I still can’t understand why the CDC has conducted nationwide random testing for COVID-19.
National political polls randomly sample 1200 people and give us estimated percentages of who is for who.
It seems simple enough to ask each local public health department, or each local hospital, to pick out somebody at random every day for a virus test. And then register the result at a central website.
And then make that data – minus any personal identification
data – public for folks like physicsguy to analyze.
From everything I have heard and read, the best strategy would be to infect the vast majority of the population that are not in in the vulnerable subset of the population as quickly as possible. This will result in a mostly immune population in two weeks in which the disease cannot continue spreading.
In short, those kids in Lake Ozarks were doing exactly the right thing.
My completely unscientific take on asymptomatic transmission…
1. Are asymptomatic patients contagious during the active stage of infection? Well, duh… The patient’s bodily fluids are full of those viruses. If you tongue kiss them, you will get it. If you live with them intimately, you will probably get it.
2. Are asymptomatic patients equally as likely to transmit the virus? Of course not! They are not sneezing and leaving droplets of virus infected snot on every nearby surface.
This is not rocket science folks.
…then I began reading reports on Vitamin D deficiency and COVID mortality. That might be it. Many Americans are deficient in Vitamin D, and dark-skinned people can make less of the vitamin from sunshine than can light-skinned people.
Kate: I had the same thought too. I also wondered if Vitamin D might be a factor in the apparent resilience of the homeless to Covid, since sunshine stimulates the body to make Vitamin D.
I kept reading scary articles about how vulnerable the homeless would be to Covid and on paper it made complete sense. I looked for the wave of homeless to swamp the hospitals but it never arrived.
Then I ran across a Boston study. Yes, the homeless are becoming infected at a high rate but the fascinating thing is that, at least in this study, the homeless were all asymptomatic.
______________________________________________________
Out of 397 people tested, 146 (36%) came up positive. But even more surprising, they weren’t showing any signs of sickness.
https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing
______________________________________________________
Maybe keeping everyone indoors and out of the Vitamin-D-sunshine makes Covid worse.
It was surprising to see the abnormally high percentage of hospitalizations and deaths that involve Blacks
It seems to be related to differences in the ACE receptor, which is the Covid attachment point. There is even a hint that ACE inhibitors, fairly common for hypertension, might be helpful. The vitamin D thing is also significant. The evolution of white and light skin is due to vitamin D as humans moved north. The same thing is seen in Asia; the farther north, the lighter the skin. Seasons and clothing.
It seems to me (opinion alert) that it is not known if an infected but asymptomatic person has the same viral “load” in his/her body to spread around as a symptomatic person. So is there as much virus in their systems to be shared by their non-sick existence. Is this is an unanswered question; I can’t find it reported as yet (other than Avi’s comment?). That would seem to be an important thing (a data set) to know. There are also reports that some people may have ‘cross immunity’ (resistance to COVID-19) from prior exposure to other COVID viruses.
Fractal,
Steal away.
om: I find it weird how little is nailed down about Covid.
I know medical science isn’t magic; it’s hard work. But this has been a global priority for over three months and we still seem to be guessing about important aspects of the disease.
Maybe Mike K or someone can straighten me out. I wasn’t expecting a miracle vaccine. I just thought we would know more by now and be able to respond more confidently.
I keep thinking “What have we learned from this?”, and unfortunately, not a damn thing useful comes to mind.
I don’t believe in taking a lot of supplements. I take a Centrum Silver and would call it a day except I’ve read that Americans are often not getting enough vitamin D from their diet and sunlight.
Since D is important for brain and nerve functioning, among other things, I also take a D softgel.
PS. Vitamin D is fat-soluble, like vitamin A, so it accumulates in the body. Therefore one can take too much of it, so care must be exercised. Current recommendations I see on the web are 1000 – 4000 IU of D.
Some say authorities aren’t recommending vitamin D for Covid because some fools would rush out and overdose.
huxley, just consider New York City and its environs. These people live in boxes above concrete and ride to and from everywhere in containers where they’re all squished together. Vitamin D from sunshine? Not happening. Then think about LA, where people go places in separate cars and there’s lots of sunshine. The death rate per million is much lower than NY.
I’m taking about 5000 IU. It was 3000 IU, but I boosted it a bit after learning about the COVID thing. I am fair-skinned, and my blood level at my last checkup was 40. I believe the normal, safe level is 30-100. I could boost it by sitting in the sun for 30 minutes daily rather than taking an extra D3 softgel.
Kate: Interesting. I’ve not had my blood level checked for D. I’m taking 3000 IU between the Centrum and softgel.
Maybe vitamin D is part of the difference between NY and LA. I can believe it.
I’m still stumped why California has better per capita stats than New Mexico. I suspect it’s because CA was infected earlier and is on the other side of the Farr curve.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farr's_laws
My guess is herd immunity is closer than advertised. The Worldometers graph shows deaths per day has been steadily dropping since mid-April. (I don’t care about daily new cases, which are still rising, but I think that’s more about increased testing.)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
There are still more unanswered questions than there are satisfactory answers. Do we know how accurate the tests are? Do we have enough testing equipment? How, exactly, do people get infected? Droplets in the air seems to be one way. But will an asymptomatic person spread virus through droplets? Infected surfaces? Yes, but according to the CDC they may not be a very common or easy means of infection. Do we know that for sure?
Why are there so many more infections in areas of high public transportation use – New York/New Jersey/Connecticut, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans? Why do outbreaks occur in nursing homes and meat packing plants yet not in factories, grocery stores, and big box stores? Why aren’t there big outbreaks among construction workers, plumbers, HVAC workers, and utility workers? Are there genetic factors at work? Does the vitamin D connection have any validity? Why do some doctors swear by HCQ and ZN, while others claim that such treatment has no value and may even be dangerous? If asymptomatic transmission occurs widely, then everyone wearing masks makes sense. But if only symptomatic people are infectious, then only they should wear masks. Do we know for sure?
So, we grope in the dark. Each of us trying to assess the danger, absorb useful information, and stay healthy. But it is a process that’s fraught with uncertainty.
That the Democrats sense an opportunity to damage Trump is certain. Considering the damage that the virus has done – both 100,000 dead and over 39million unemployed – that anyone would try to make political hay out of it is despicable.
J.J.,
To add to your unknowns why have these disgusting homeless camps not been hugely hit? What about prisons? These idiots have released a bunch of criminals on the premise the virus would ravage prisons and it turns out the virus is all over prisons but the vast majority are apparently asymptomatic. Another one is the grocery stores. Up until about three weeks only a few of the grocery store workers at my local stores were wearing masks yet apparently there were not a lot (any?) of outbreaks in these stores.
So much of this thing has been messed up it’s almost impossible to believe anything at this point.
Also to the unemployment while it is true that about 40 million have filed the last couple months only 21 million (only) are still receiving benefits which is a slightly encouraging sign and this too is hard to judge as the fraud and incompetence in the system has run wild.
J.J./Griffin: Likewise.
So many questions, not many answers, and many questions hinge not upon complex 3-D models of cell receptor/virus interactions, but measuring things, tabulating them and reporting them.
Who is being infected at this point? Quite a lot of seniors in nursing homes. But who else? Are the frontline people in grocery stores or driving Ubers getting it? Why don’t we know?
The only cases I know personally are the mom and pop at my fave neighborhood pizza parlor and they are fine now.
Huxley,
Yep, I don’t know anyone who has had it and only one person I know has been tested and that was because a coworkers husband was sick and it turned out he didn’t have it nor did my friend. That just adds to the frustration of this whole thing. Your eyes and experience are not matching with the all out freak out hysteria.
I SHELTERED FOR COVID AND ALL I GOT
WERE THESE CRUMMY DISPOSABLE MASKS
I HAVE TO THROW AWAY.
ICK!
Huxley,
In the Seattle area they are apparently having a huge number of clogged pipes because of discarded masks and gloves so be careful.
Griffin; huxley:
I know quite a few people who had it (confirmed by testing) and several who died (I didn’t know them well; they also both were in nursing homes and extremely old).
And I know relatives’ in-laws who had to be hospitalized, very ill with it, who were in their 40s and previously healthy.
neo: Yes, I trust your reports. I was providing mine. There’s not much Covid in New Mexico. There’s much more in the Northeast.
We can speculate as to why. It’s maddening we don’t have more robust answers.
Way back when it started i pointed out the futility of avoiding it, just as in the mask of the red death…
My older sister (in Boston) discovered she had a serious vitamin D deficiency several years ago. So she took supplements, as her doctor recommended.
She was surprised she felt an energy boost. Possibly placebo, but a data point.
Anyway, I do think most Americans, especially those older, might consider a D3 supplement. I have a horror of dementia. That’s the way my grandmother went.
_______________________________________
Can taking vitamin D supplements or spending more time in the sun help prevent Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia?
There isn’t enough data to answer this question yet. Research suggests that people with very low levels of vitamin D in their blood, a condition known as vitamin D deficiency, are more likely to develop Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia.
For example, a large study published in Neurology showed that people with extremely low blood levels of vitamin D were more than twice as likely as those with normal vitamin D levels to develop Alzheimer’s disease or other types of dementia. Other studies have shown no association between vitamin D levels and dementia.
At this point, the association between vitamin D deficiency and dementia risk is only observational. More research is needed to show cause and effect.
–https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/alzheimers-disease/expert-answers/vitamin-d-alzheimers/faq-20111272
_______________________________________
I’m not waiting around.
Neo, huxley,
Yeah, it may be the different areas of the country and the ages of the crowds we interact with. Other than my mom (her facility has had zero cases) I don’t know anyone in senior living that well. In my particular area it was never bad outside of nursing homes but we were dragged into it by that first nursing home in Kirkland north of here. Plus I’m not on Facebook (thank the lord) so I’m sure that someone I went to high school or college with or something has had it and I’m just out of the loop.
Linked by Ace.mu.nu
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid
and
https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/#1e7ae58c74cd
and
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/05/28/not-nearly-as-lethal-or-harmful-as-advertised-heres-what-the-cdc-report-accidentally-just-admitted-about-covid/
“Nothing to see, move along, move along. You can have your economy back when I say so. You may get your rights back if I feel like it.” “I” being the Kings and Emperors of the Great States of Progress, who once were elected but now are our rulers. Montage is a loyal subject.
The CDC was lusting for a rerun of the 1918 Flu Pandemic and all they got was COVID-19, just shows how bureaucracy and progressives can make anything a bigger tragedy.
So, 80% of Covid19 cases are asymptomatic? No. First, there is no agreed definition of what asymptomatic includes or excludes.
Here in New Zealand – which is CV19 virus free – out of some 1500 cases, there are approximately zero cases that are asymptomatic.
In a Twitter discussion by Med school researchers in April, examining some 9 sets of studies found a median rate of asymptomatic cases of 40%. But the problem of inconsistent definition was high lighted then and remains problematic ever since,
huxley, there are also studies showing that cancer patients whose Vitamin D levels are adequate at the time of diagnosis do better than those who are deficient, on average.
As to Alzheimer’s, if you have a sugar consumption habit, try to get rid of it.
You might think this matters:
https://www.redstate.com/mike_miller/2020/05/29/who-releases-list-of-who-should-wear-a-mask-and-when-—-the-mask-police-are-not-going-to-be-happy/
“If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19.”
But of course even if your are healthy you will be considered as asymptomatic by the mask police, so all must continue to wear masks. So will be the rule from King Jay and his minions.
The WHO has specific guidance for the wearing, removing, disposal of masks too. Wearing a mask more than once? Nope. A mask that has gaps between the it and the face? Nope. Lots of fun for all. WHO can you believe?l
om —
A friend of mine posted that exact argument to FB.
I don’t know what to say — I guess that means that everyone will have to wear masks forever, then, because even if there’s a vaccine someone might not have been vaccinated and could have the virus, forever.
It’s like she and all the others think that if they get within 6 feet of someone they might as well be sharing a needle. How, precisely, is someone who is asymptomatic — and therefore pretty much be definition not sneezing and coughing virus all over the place — supposed to be spreading the virus in large enough quantities to infect someone else? And even if this is the most virulent coronavirus ever, it’s not on the one-particle-will-kill-you scale of Ebola or Marburg or the like.
I’m very sick of people who seem to think this is the Andromeda Strain who are old enough to know better.
Bryan,
At least King Jay has decreed this afternoon that we may be allowed to reopen if we meet his new rules (not to be confused with the old rules or the old, old rules). I’ve noticed the amount of mask wearing declining considerably especially in warmer weather. Masks will be largely gone outside of medical settings in weeks I predict.
The bigger issue is that so many people have invested their very being into this virus being the worst thing ever that they can’t retreat from that now.
The bigger issue is that so many people have invested their very being into this virus being the worst thing ever that they can’t retreat from that now.
Yeah, I think that’s gotta be it. Every time anybody posts good news, like “it’s hard to get infected from surfaces” or “it’s hard to get infected outside”, it’s swamped by a chorus of “YEAH BUT”.
Here is the report of another, more recent genetic analysis of the Chinese Coronavirus, which points to two specific features in its genetic composition–one of them newly found–which add to the evidence for the idea that this Chinese Coronavirus was not naturally occurring in the environment but, instead, was the product of genetic engineering, and engineering to make it much more capable of infecting humans than other bat Coronaviruses, and also significantly more infectious.
See https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-may-have-been-created-in-a-wuhan-lab-genetic-engineering-experiment/news-story/6e0a211af696fa2f30d5e7306dbf4780