COVID shutdown protests: Will it be a bang or a whimper?
From T. S. Eliot’s poem The Hollow Men:
In this last of meeting places
We grope together
And avoid speech
Gathered on this beach of the tumid river…This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
At first the shutdown seemed somewhat reasonable although extreme, given the predictions from epidemiologists and the news we had seen coming from China and then Italy. “Flatten the curve” and keep the health care system from being overwhelmed seemed important goals.
They were met. And yet still we see some governors continue their little dictatorships, making seemingly arbitrary pronouncements that continue to infringe on people’s rights as the situation seems to become less and less full of peril in terms of public health.
Yes, the danger exists, and more people are going to die. That’s always true, and it may indeed be more true than usual right now. But people need to live while they’re living, and unless there is an utterly compelling reason for a restriction it needs to go.
Citizens have been fairly cooperative so far. That’s either a good thing or a bad thing, depending on how you look at it. It’s “good” if you think it’s necessary to comply with orders that restrict people’s rights for a while, because the danger remains overwhelmingly great. It’s “bad” if you think this is sheepish slavish nonsense, a testing of the waters for greater tyranny, and quite unnecessary as well.
But the natives are getting restless – even in California, albeit in the redder parts of that blue blue state. There has been protesting and defiance in Sacramento and Huntington Beach:
…[T]he California governor has been less than candid in sharing a timeline of reopening with Californians. And, in an obvious instance of political pique, he shut down Orange County beaches because visitors supposedly failed to follow social distancing guidelines.
Huntington Beach is one of those Orange County locations. On Friday thousands flocked to those shores to protest the needless closures.
“Large crowds opposing the state’s coronavirus stay-at-home mandate took to the streets of downtown Huntington Beach on Friday, a day after the governor closed Orange County beaches and drew frustration and criticism from some residents and city leaders.
“Protesters gathered near the Huntington Beach pier shortly before noon, with the crowd eventually swelling to some 2,500-3,000 people, according to Huntington Beach police Chief Robert Handy. The tightly packed crowd, with most people not wearing protective masks, repeatedly chanted “U.S.A.” as they waited for the demonstration to begin.”
California isn’t the only place this is happening. People want their lives back, and they are willing to assume the risk. Others, who consider themselves to be among the more at risk, can continue to stay home and isolate if they like. But normal-ish life needs to resume for those less at risk.
But how many people feel this way compared to those who want the restrictions to go on and on and on, till COVID is completely vanquished? No doubt it varies from state to state. One thing that’s clear is that a lot of people in South Dakota are happy their state was never really closed down at all:
Republican South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem had an impromptu parade thrown in her honor on Tuesday in the capitol city of Pierre. A local construction company organized the parade to show appreciation for her handling of the coronavirus epidemic.
Noem, the state’s first female governor, was one of a handful of governors not to issue an order shuttering non-essential businesses during the ongoing epidemic.
The parade, organized by John Morris of Morris Inc. construction company, featured “literally hundreds of cars,” fire trucks and other vehicles honking their horns and sirens while Noem watched, apparently surprised, from a local park.
Of course, it helps that South Dakota has barely had any COVID at all: a total of 21 deaths. That’s in a state that with a population that’s somewhere in the 800 thousands, and a low population density as well. But still, it took courage for Governor Noem to hold back in the face of tremendous criticism. Her gamble paid off.
The COVID crisis has many elements, but one of them is that it’s a test of how important liberty is to the American people. How most Americans will answer that test is still being sorted out.
[ADDENDUM: At first I thought this article was satire. Apparently it’s not. At least, I don’t think it is.]
My prediction is that this movement is going to explode and that the governors are going to back down… pronto!
My sister and brother-in-law are attending a rally in Salem, Oregon today.
Like you said, when it appeared that the rationale was sound, people complied. But the rationale for continuing the lockdown just isn’t there any more and The People know it and are not going to tolerate it.
I want to believe people will push back in large numbers but I have my doubts sadly.
I have seen quite a few people very angry about the May 31 extension here in WA including some who were previously supportive of the lockdown but not many ready to fight back.
The question for me is when do they start announcing the government worker layoffs here?
I also think the weather will prompt people to more action. As spring comes fully, people want out of their houses and back to normalcy. I think things have been tempered here in the Northeast by the absolutely terrible April we’ve had. If May opens up weather wise, I suspect even here in the deep deep blue people will begin to express their frustration.
One weld think the governors would look at these protests as a warning shot fired across their bow. But then, maybe some look at it as a challenge to their authority; it could get ugly.
I saw pictures of mounted police line pushing against the “openers” in Huntingdon Beach. I thought it looked like something from another country. But no, its ours.
Being CA they all can’t be Republicans. Right?
I agree that things will get ugly. Arresting people and putting them in jail for not wearing a mask, while letting CONVICTED criminals out in not a pretty picture.
Wonder if things will be remembered on the local level come Nov.
One thing I’ve been doing is sending around to lots of people these videos of thuggish police arresting or intimidating people for doing harmless things like the dad and daughter playing catch in Colorado, the mom at the park in Idaho, and the mom in Wisconsin who had the gall to let her daughter play at a friends house and because of that a couple of deputies came out to put her on a list.
Scary stuff.
Governor Kristi Noem said “The people themselves are primarily responsible for their safety. They are the ones that are entrusted with expansive freedoms – they are free to exercise their rights to work, worship, and play – or to stay at home, or to conduct social distancing.”
Having grown up in South Dakota, I am rightly proud of my home state for electing her.
I’ve been thinking, the opening to The Hollow Men is well on-target. The lack of thought and general emptiness of discussion beyond the “run away, hide!” response is nothing my parents’ generation would have embraced so thoroughly. My children’s blind obedience worries me. It lacks power or personal authority.
We are the hollow men
We are the stuffed men
Leaning together
Headpiece filled with straw. Alas!
Our dried voices, when
We whisper together
Are quiet and meaningless
As wind in dry grass
Or rats’ feet over broken glass
In our dry cellar
There’s the other aspect of the “participation trophy” crowd which also believes in a “no risk at all life”. To gain that impossibility they are quite willing to give up theirs, and of course, our freedom.
Drones… yelling at people (at least in elizabeth, but not below)…
we now live in a dystopian sci fi film..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Opj_1mvo3Rc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLbvAFxprzw
Riverside county, Ca authorities announced that their restrictions will remain in place until June 19. This was posted on a community bulletin board forum, along with over 600 county wide reactions. I would estimate that close to 2/3 of them were positive. The media and the politicians have done an effective job of confusing and frightening people into submission.
I had a message from my County Supervisor in which she reports about how their policies are protecting us. I responded that she mis-states the situation. We protect ourselves with good hygiene and good sense. It is not at all clear what their policies are protecting; if anything. I also noted that the freedom that we used to cherish presumed individual responsibility. I have had no response; nor have I had a response from my California State Senator, or my Legislative Representative, to whom I sent a similar message earlier.
As some have suggested the best way to reverse the message and open the country is to lay off all non-essential government workers. I would say just arbitrarily, by lot, pick 2/3 of them; achieving the added benefit that when it is over we will have an idea as to how many were essential to our needs.
With respect to the confusion that abounds, I also read an interesting comparison between what the medical bureaucrats are saying as opposed to what the front line Doctors who are treating Covid-19 patients tell us. There is some disparity.
The system is scrubbing quotes… wont take G u l a_g Ar_peli_go
If…if…We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…. We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”
? Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn , The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
“If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?
During the life of any heart this line keeps changing place; sometimes it is squeezed one way by exuberant evil and sometimes it shifts to allow enough space for good to flourish. One and the same human being is, at various ages, under various circumstances, a totally different human being. At times he is close to being a devil, at times to sainthood. But his name doesn’t change, and to that name we ascribe the whole lot, good and evil.
Socrates taught us: ‘Know thyself!”
? Alexander Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago
“No, the old proverb does not lie: Look for the brave in prison, and the stupid among the political leaders!”
? Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
“And even in the fever of epidemic arrests, when people leaving for work said farewell to their families every day, because they could not be certain they would return at night, even then almost no one tried to run away and only in rare cases did people commit suicide. And that was exactly what was required. A submissive sheep is a find for a wolf.”
? Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
“The most intense patriotism always flourishes in the rear.”
? Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
“To do evil a human being must first of all believe that what he’s doing is good, or else that it’s a well-considered act in conformity with natural law. Fortunately, it is in the nature of the human being to seek a justification for his actions…
Ideology—that is what gives the evildoing its long-sought justification and gives the evildoer the necessary steadfastness and determination.”
? Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
Here is an interesting paper from a bunch of frontline doctors – not the researchers.
https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf
Notice that there is a protocol for the various stages of the disease. It might be a handy thing to send to your doctor so there are options if you do get sick.
Another good woman governor is Kim Reynolds (R) of Iowa. Fox talked to her about the meat processing shutdowns there. She was happy that Trump said they had to end. Now with federal help they are doing infection and sera testing and providing PPE so the workers feel safe going back to work. The companies are also distancing workers and sanitizing the buildings. She said that the processing plants provide a lot of jobs in Iowa and will help the state recover.
Reynolds has done a great job. I am glad we don’t have a democrat govenor.
Note that many of the meat plants are Chinese owned…
https://www.foxnews.com/us/video-texas-park-ranger-social-distancing-pushed-lake
Its definitely spreading. The change where I live between last week and this week has been striking. Things aren’t reopened yet but you wouldn’t be able to tell by vehicular and foot traffic.
Okay. Something like 89 percent of all covid deaths are deaths of people with one or more underlying medical conditions. Based on my memory of news articles and not on a study I have in my back pocket, the most frequently mentioned covid comorbidities (underlying medical conditions) are hypertension or other cardiac conditions, obesity, diabetes, compromised immune system, respiratory condition, those are what my memory is telling me.
Now. How many / what proportion of those so afflicted would have died, once 2020 is (finally!) finished, had there been no covid presence at all?
I propose the following. Let’s look at deaths from the past five calendar years [it could be four years, it could be seven years, my point here is to establish a baseline of a sort], not including 2020, for each of the comorbidities listed above.
Let’s pretend, just as an example, that deaths due to obesity (as noted in the death certificate) averaged 20,000 for for those five years. Let’s pretend further that the obesity number, once December 2020 is finished, is 12,000 for 2020. Then, I propose, the covid deaths for 2020 should be diminished by 8,000 as a correction, because, statistically speaking, those 8,000 deaths were “really” (whatever that means) obesity deaths and not covid deaths. Do the same for all other comorbidities, including any that I missed (I’m sure there were some that are significant).
Disclaimer i: deaths, even one death, is tragic. To speculate about statistical deaths is in some sense obscene. I do not mean to dismiss the meaning of 1 or 8,000 or 20,000 deaths. But if we’re going to ascribe such-and-such many deaths to covid, then I think the correction I propose would be meaningful.
Disclaimer ii: my proposal is sorely in need of refinement and specificity, but I hope anyone reading this gets my drift. I will happily acknowledge there are a zillion and a half “what-if”s and “but-if”s — as just one example, how might we deal with multiple comorbidities? — but (again) I hope a reader of this comment gets my drift without getting bogged down in refining the basic idea.
Hey artfldgr!
I just heard another idea for you*: An Obituary app, with geography settings and such that uses all those Funeral home websites and bypasses local newspapers.
If there were a way to make it attractive to Funeral Homes and families, you could make a buck and kneecap all the local newspaper propagandists.
Obituaries are probably the only thing keeping most papers afloat.
*Full credit to a guy named Peter Hanley at Instapundit. We were commenting on this page:
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/369967/#comment-4899006446
hey fractal rabbit…. thx but it exists already
The Obituary App
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.app.foapp&hl=en_US
The Obituary App notifies you of the posting of any obituaries from your selected list of cities or contacts. You can receive alerts for obituaries in the city where you grew up, went to school, worked or currently reside — as many cities as you wish to follow.
Once you download The Obituary App, connect your Facebook contacts, phone contacts, and select as many cities as you want. You may choose whether to be notified automatically of any new obituary posted that fits your personal criteria. You can also quickly and easily search obituaries throughout the U.S. by name or city or browse through your own feed at your convenience.
etc……
We seem to be dividing into free states and not-free states right now, pretty much depending on whether governors are principled conservatives or power-grabbing leftists. Our Florida governor Ron DeSantis is doing a fine job, I think. I like his pushback against the media, reminding them of their predictions that FL would have nearly half a million hospitalizations on our peak date of April 24. Reality that day: 2,200, in a state of 22 million people. Phase One reopening begins here Monday. I will be watching the sun rise at the beach! (Our beaches were closed because of our county’s proximity to the southeastern cities.) I met a woman from Michigan yesterday, at our local dog park. She’s got property for her RV in FL and she knows a group of snowbird Michiganders near her who drove back to Michigan just to take part in the protests. They are fighting mad. Reminds me a bit of the tea parties when people who never protested before or spoke about politics suddenly find there are others out there who (quietly) hold the same beliefs and assumptions about the role of government in relation to the people. I love seeing the demonstrations in CA especially. I had no idea that spirit was still alive there. A week ago about 20 cars passed through my quiet neighborhood with people waving American flags, Trump 2020 signs, and homemade signs that said “End the Lockdown” and “Open the Beaches.” I came out of my house and waved back. Knowing people like that are out there makes it easier to bear the crap I’m reading from friends on Facebook (mostly women) who continue to be freaked out and accept the latest scaremongering news stories without critical thought, maturity or courage. They share posts about how selfish people who just want to eat hamburgers, go to the beach and get their nails done are literally going to KILL everybody else. The press is manipulating in a truly evil way right now. Some of my Facebook friends are so consumed with hatred for Trump and his bleach-drinking deplorables and so irrationally afraid of the virus that they seem mentally ill. The coronavirus response, though it seemed to begin with the best intentions (“two weeks to flatten the curve!”) has become yet another way for the left to shove their agenda down our throats. They can’t win with their ideas in fair elections, so they take power any other way they can. Thanks for always being one of the sane ones, neo.
Art,
Dammit. Sorry.
Is there a way to bypass the Facebook and do it?
There is always a chance that these lockdowns will backfire in a huge way against the democrats. The media will try to bail water for the dems, regardless. There does seem to be a huge difference between conservatives and liberals on this.
I live in Oregon. Our governor is Kate Brown. We don’t really know what she is thinking because she has been mostly in hiding. When she makes announcements, she never takes questions. Her announcements have been… less than definitive.
In the last announcement, she assured us that she is coordinating plans for reopening with Washington and California. No timelines were offered.
I started out 75% on board but have since moved to the “sheepish slavish nonsense, a testing of the waters for greater tyranny, and quite unnecessary as well” camp.
Flatten the curve, they said. We did, at great sacrifice. Then it’s we can’t return until (pick one) we have a vaccine, no more deaths, some unspecified better situation we cannot quantify now or in the future, etc. Right, that’s all feasible.
Sorry, my quotient of bullshit has been filled already. Even the CDC now says hospitalization rates are like a bad flu. Okay, so WTF have we been doing these last 6-8 weeks?! Who is accountable for this clusterf*ck?
And in IL we are on continued lockdown through May 30, after that who knows? I hate this. And now all the suburbs around here are cancelling July 4 festivities and weekend festivals, concerts, you name it. This summer sucks hard already and it’s still 4-6 weeks away…
It will be a set of inconsistent phased approaches. Those favoring more opening need to be ready for blame by the media, and Dems. All deaths will be blamed on those wanting fewer restrictions.
Unfair blaming is one skill most Dems seem to have, in spades. It will be used a lot in the coming months, where there will very likely NOT be any hospitals overwhelmed with too many serious cases.
The inconsistent / fake statistics will also muddy the waters of understanding, so we will “know less” because of bad data collection – creating the in side of the Garbage In – Garbage Out axiom.
Roy Nathanson,
Didn’t I see that Oregon extended until July today?
jon baker on May 2, 2020 at 9:38 pm said:
There is always a chance that these lockdowns will backfire in a huge way against the democrats. The media will try to bail water for the dems, regardless. There does seem to be a huge difference between conservatives and liberals on this.
* * *
Also what Tom Grey said: “Those favoring more opening need to be ready for blame by the media, and Dems. All deaths will be blamed on those wanting fewer restrictions.
Unfair blaming is one skill most Dems seem to have, in spades. ”
It’s already started.
I was surfing at Daily Kos today (see the Reade thread), and they are already blaming this week’s deaths on the Freedom Governors – long before any exposure from relaxing restrictions could lead to an incubated Covid case.
They are counting on their readers not doing the math.
The basic theme is OrangeManBad wants to KillUsAll.
From Breitbart’s story about protests in LA – this is the best protest poster ever!
https://media.breitbart.com/media/2020/05/IMG_1795-e1588364545428.jpg
important post from Jonathan Turley – not a Trump fan by any stretch of the imagination, Lennon’s or otherwise.
https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/495788-the-dangerous-liberal-ideas-for-censorship-in-the-united-states
Note – buyer beware on antibody blood tests; many of the ones on the market are not FDA approved (FWIW), and those that are have been criticized as well.
Doesn’t mean they are incorrect, but weigh the danger of a false positive reading before assuming you had the virus and recovered.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495772-alarm-bells-ring-over-controversial-covid-testing
It’s not just the Kos Kids making veiled implications that virus vibes vitiate vitality and violate vitae.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495826-us-endures-worst-one-day-death-toll-yet-as-states-reopen
The math has been run here several times, but (per the references below which I just grabbed from the web) the median time from exposure to symptoms is 5 days, and from symptoms to death is 18.5 days, total 23.5 (minimum at my best guess is 14),* so anyone who died today, before the governors killed everyone by opening the beaches and stores, was infected around 2-3 weeks ago — when everyone was still locked down.
What will count (with sane people) is the death toll 3 weeks from now, which would be beginning around May 18.
(Somebody correct me if I got those numbers wrong.)
You can count from the first protests (no masks or social distancing!!) if you want, which started in earnest on April 15*, but only if you specifically tie the big death number to those states. You can’t blame Michigan “right wingers” if most of the people died in NYC. (The Hill doesn’t say.)
FTR:
https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-incubation-period#incubation-period
https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/
(There are some interesting graphs and tables about what happens to your body, but the patient numbers are all old now.)
* https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-lockdown-backlash-may-be-the-new-tea-party-movement.html
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/15/coronavirus-multiple-states-see-protests-over-stay-home-rules/5142499002/
Fractal – Don’t mess with Texans, even the ones in the People’s Republic of Austin.
“The patrons of the park actually came to the aid of the park ranger,” Berry said. “Several people came up to the ranger and apologized for the guy’s behavior. That’s the Austin we know, and that’s the Austin we love.”
However, other cities also plan to send their police to lock up citizens instead of the criminals their authorities released from jail.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/nypd-dispatches-1000-officers-in-nyc-to-enforce-social-distancing-as-weather-warms-up
https://www.foxnews.com/us/chicago-mayor-lori-lightfoot-threatens-citations-arrest-residents-ignore-stay-at-home-order
“When pool parties are outlawed, only outlaws have pool parties.” — AF
Liz on May 2, 2020 at 5:53 pm said:
Here is an interesting paper from a bunch of frontline doctors – not the researchers.
* * *
Thanks for that link – I will print a copy and put it in my to-go bag for the hospital (knock on wood).
Their graph supports my 5 & 18.5 day windows in the comment about the “worst death day” and why open states are not to blame.
Liz – PowerLine linked your report, and another similar one, while commenting on their importance. Take both of them in the ambulance when you go.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/how-treatable-is-covid-19.php
https://media2-production.mightynetworks.com/asset/9794803/Treating_Covid-19_in_ER_2_-_April_6_2020_final.pdf
California reaches maximum crazy on criminals and covid-critics.
Contrast the response to a guy arrested three times in one day for theft and citizens sitting on the beach in the sunshine.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/california-is-great-if-youre-a-criminal.php
“Due to the California Zero-Bail Policy, Landrum was released with his third citation of the day.”
“Cops heckled as they tell a 93-year-old couple they’re not allowed to SIT in CHAIRS on the beach.”
Make America Free Again
https://libertyunyielding.com/2020/05/02/oops-whitmers-extension-of-michigan-lockdown-is-a-power-she-doesnt-actually-have/
This is why we need to think about things before we do them, even if well-intended.
https://libertyunyielding.com/2020/05/02/irs-glitch-leads-to-thousands-of-foreign-workers-getting-stimulus-checks/
“Do as we say, not as we do.”
https://libertyunyielding.com/2020/05/02/michelle-obama-warns-black-americans-to-shelter-in-place-then-her-hubby-goes-golfing/
You can please some of the pundits all of the time, and all of the pundits some of the time, but you can’t please all of the pundits all of the time.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494949-we-can-protect-the-most-vulnerable-and-reopen-the-economy
“The struggle between President Trump’s drive to reopen the American economy as quickly as possible, and the insistence by his public health team and many others that this has to be delayed until further hurdles are overcome, is largely a false dilemma. We can simultaneously increase protection for those who are most vulnerable to coronavirus and, with appropriate precautions, reopen most of our economy and society.
The key to unlocking this false dilemma is a clear understanding of who, in fact, is most vulnerable to death from this novel killer — and who is not. As data from the deaths of the more than 58,000 of our fellow citizens to date show, the answer is clear. ”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/30/coronavirus-shutdown-altitude-ethics-223569
“Admit It: You Are Willing to Let People Die to End the Shutdown
The question is how many and how soon. In the pandemic, everyone is a moral relativist.”
FWIW, I have some issues with the philosophical conclusions drawn by the author of that last post, who is jabbing at conservatives for the wrong reasons.
AesopFan, thanks for the editorial in The Hill on, among other things, reopening Purdue University in late August. It’s very sensible, and I have sent it to my daughter, a professor at a private university.
On another note, while North Carolina is still theoretically shut down, things are actually gradually reopening, and my husband’s total knee replacement will be done late next week.
.Great post and comments.
Beautiful day yesterday in Freedonia, so I put the top down and drove to a big box hardware store for supplies to do some home and yard work. There was a line of people in masks queued up so I turned around and came home and did some different projects. Last night I went to a grocery store to buy some provisions for dinner. There was an employee stationed outside to form a queue, if needed, but there weren’t many patrons so I was allowed to stroll right in. I told the man working the deli counter what I wanted, and after slicing my first request he had forgotten the quantity of the second request. He asked, “mmfafffffmm” from behind his mask. I said, “pardon?” “Mmmffffmmmmm.” “I’m sorry, I can’t hear you.” So he pulled his mask down and asked, “One pound or two?”
Pandemic Pantomime.
I had no issue with the big box store. It’s their store. If they want to limit customers, more power to ’em. And if I choose not to wait in a queue, that’s fine too. At this point most all of us understand what is going on. We understand there is a novel virus infecting people. We understand the basic ways it is transmitted. We understand (except for NYC and old age homes) the first wave did not overwhelm our medical system..
Let us live our lives as free people. No entrepreneur wants a law suit from employees or customers. Nobody wants to get infected. Most all parties will act responsibly. The handful of those that do not will not overwhelm our medical facilities. If, in two weeks, we see another upward curve, then consider more controls, but give us a chance.
I have only heard one interview with Governor Kristi Noem, and read a few articles about her, but she seems like a very level-headed Executive who has a clear understanding of the Constitution, her state’s laws and her role as Governor. I also agree that Ron DeSantis is doing a good job.
I wrote this here before, but if there was a corn blight affecting Iowans New Yorkers would not insist on a shut down of New York city, and they would have no problem restricting all inbound travel from Iowans and stationing police at the borders and air terminals to enforce the ban. But because this is New York city, and that’s our media nexus, we all must suffer.
It’s an awful way to learn a lesson, but if this finally gets people to understand Federalism so be it.
To my friends who despise DJT, I often say, “Hopefully this will make you rethink the Constitution and the importance of limiting Executive and Federal control.” Half the country hated Obama, now the other half hates Trump yet both halves can’t figure out the problem is the power of the office, not the office holder. “Do not put your trust in princes.”
“According to data from the World Health Organization, 2,909 U.S. residents died on Thursday [4/30], shattering the previous record of 2,471 deaths that were reported on April 23, CNBC reports.”
These figures must depend on where you get them from and what is considered a “day.” I’ve been tracking deaths since 3/22 using the numbers at the Worldmeter site at midnight each day and the worst day, outside of the 4/16 NY 3700 dump day, was 4/21 at 2823 deaths.
The numbers trended up from 3/22 to 4/10 then dropped for 3 straight days before the type of deaths was changed when they jumped again on 4/14 then the big jump when NY dumped on 4/16.
Since then the numbers have jumped around as States like my Michigan dump in the “died with” numbers on an irregular basis. The last 4 days 4/29 to 5/2 have once again seen a continuous down trend from 2463 on 4/28 to 1668 on 5/2.
It gives me hope to see folks in California – California! of all places – push back against these stupid, non-rational, shutdowns.
Now, as others here have said, I hope they remember in November just which politicians took away their ability to earn an income.
I get the theory of stopping the spread through social distancing. In fact, if you could restrict all contact, theoretically the virus would die out and be done in a month or slightly more. That isn’t possible. So, they shut down non-essential work and flattened the curve to save health care resources. It seemed to work. And, of course, their models were wrong. But models are almost always wrong because they are mathematical theories and depend on the accuracy of the data used. Never expect models to be predictions of reality..
The problem, as I see it, is that the process of combatting the pandemic has become politicized. In an emergency of this sort teamwork is necessary. Pointing fingers of blame , second guessing, and distrusting leaders does nothing to help defeat the virus. Since this is so new and different people feel like they are flying blind. In such circumstances our leaders should work to keep people well informed, set goals, admit mistakes, revise information that has been found to be wanting, and work to maintain morale. One component of morale is having some certainty about what is happening and what the future looks like. Morale has flagged and questions have arisen because many governors have been vague about their plans and how those plans would be implemented. Not to mention the always present MSM criticism and defiance of everything DJT says or suggests. We have many forces pulling in different directions. That’s not the way you win wars or successfully stop pandemics.
That the left has politicized this to the max is unquestionable. They have seized on the idea that this is the crisis that they can use to bring Trump down. You sense that the Democrat governors are loathe to open up because the economy is Trump’s major claim to fame. If it’s till struggling in November, they think they can win big. The MSM is helping by using every opportunity to belittle and besmirch his policies.
It’s almost always necessary to temporarily limit civil rights in an emergency. We willingly lived with many restrictions to our rights during WWII. The key is that our leaders should openly say that they are reluctantly curbing some civil rights and that the situation is temporary. Yet, that’s not what’s happening with most Democrat governors. They seem to enjoy being little dictators. It’s good that people are letting them know that they don’t like it. And that AG, Bill Barr, is watching.
I sense that the citizens here in Snohomish County, WA are going to increasingly go where they want and do what they want. It may lead to an increase in cases, maybe not, we’ll see. I think most elderly people will continue to be cautious, but things will open up whether Jay Inslee approves or not. And maybe that’s what should have happened from the beginning. Time will tell.
Kate and AesopFan, thanks for the links to the treatment protocols. That’s the kind of info that people need to see. It improves knowledge and provides hope.
Aesop – Thanks for the link back to Powerline – I couldn’t remember where I saw the paper.
Expect cases to increase in Oklahoma, Florida, and many states since there are plans to test 100% of patients and staff in LTC facilities. I saw a report today where FL has a mobile lab set up to do the testing. OK is planning to add more contact tracers to do follow-ups. At least, if there are more cases, there are reports on the OK website that tracks cases/deaths by LTC facility.
There was a Fox interview about pulse oximeters. The Fox guy was ready to discuss the benefits of knowing your O2 level, but the doctor shot down the idea. However, my doctor always takes my O2 level at visits and she recommended to keep tracking the level during the shelter time.
When neo commented on Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s looks I stayed out of the discussion. Unfortunately looks do matter in politics, and it’s fair topic of discussion, but I don’t like commenting negatively on people’s appearances (which is a tacit indication that Governor Whitmer is not my cup of tea). Along with her political acumen I do find Governor Kristi Noem easy on the eyes. Which is why we will see the MSM try to destroy her if she shows any sign of trying to expand her political aspirations beyond South Dakota. Look for Tina Fey to come out of retirement and appear on SNL mocking ranchers an mid-west accents.
If you need any proof that the MSM must stop Kristi Noem, here’s a brief excerpt of her bio. “Miss Snow Queen?!” The coastal elites loathe this scrappy, up by your bootstraps stuff.
Rufus T Firefly:
How true. in the end it isn’t what they look like, or what they say, it is what they do. Captain Obvious speaking, but spotting a con/grifter isn’t as easy these days, although the actions of Governor Ratched, King Jay, and many progressives is hard to hide. So many want to be fooled; he/she/z sounded so convincing and that other one is just evil, and it is for the public’s safety and health …..
Regarding Kristi Noem I wonder how many people know how dangerous the quaint flyover occupation of agriculture really is. Not just putting a seed in the ground and waiting for the crop to come in (aka Mike Bloomberg).
Doesn’t Frau Whitmer look like she was in “Triumph of the Will”.
Too bad the great Louise Fletcher is too old to portray her. Kathy Bates maybe
Yes, Oregon extended their imprisonment of their population until July. In a week, Michigan or some other Democrat-run state will extend the prison term until August, then another until September, until the country is shut down through the election, mail-in ballots are authorized in the battleground states, and Trump is soundly defeated in the polls (“a surprising but decisive referendum” it will be called forevermore in the history books, not “massive mail voter fraud”).
Good news!
The virus will be miraculously eradicated and the country will be fully open by Thanksgiving, that is if you still have a life worth living by then!
Liz —
I bought a pulse oximeter at the very beginning of the lockdown, because I mostly live alone and don’t have anyone around to tell me my lips were turning blue if I got sick.
In my experience, doctors don’t think civilians are qualified to take their own temperature, much less anything complicated like read a number off a digital display.
It is astonishing how many of these totalitarian assholes are lawyers (e.g. Inslee, Brown, Whitmer) and how many of them have a totalitarian little Himmler want-a-be AG at their side. Considering how many other prominent lawyers in the news recently are lying shitbags (e.g. Warren, Harris, Abrams) and the lying shitshow that is the FISA court and the FBI (almost all of them lawyers) and the gross assault on the constitution by the party hacks in Federal and State courts, I have to conclude there is something seriously wrong with our legal institutions and our law schools.
Neo,
The reason Gavin Newsom said that about sunsets is because he wants people to be able to go outside in the daytime, which they cannot do in Spain or France – to name two countries that have extreme lockdown.
That said, I live in CA, and people are out and about every single day – without masks. Sure we can’t go to the beach but that’s pretty minor considering you can go very close and ride your bike for miles by the coast with no worries. [I do wish the trails were open everywhere but walking the hilly neighborhoods is fine].
We want to get back to normal life but most are willing to stay cautious at least until the middle of May. [And most everyone who has been furloughed is getting unemployments plus $600 more per week]. He has laid out an elaborate plan of action to get us back to work but just as we’ve come off the curve it’s better to be safe than open everything back up and have us go back into lockdown. The virus won’t go away until we have a vaccine.
One could argue we should just open anyway but logistically [and with the nature of lawsuits] it won’t be easy. We’ll ease in. I don’t think our liberties are being taken from us. Every state has State Quarantine and Isolation Statutes’, which have been there for decades but rarely used – obviously. But they are not Unconstitutional. Although I’m sure some conservatives will challenge them in court.
[I see someone likened this to ‘imprisonment’. Haha. Okay… It’s not like prison.]
Montage:
Who is this “we” you speak of and for. I suspect that it is “you” and your sock puppet. Funny that there seem to be a few in Orange County that don’t feel that seeing the beach is the same as being on the beach. Must be some other kind of “we,” maybe “we we” as in pissed off at Governor Hair Gell.
So by your argument you are under the thumb of Governor Hair Gell until a vaccine is approved. Enjoying the heel on your face yet? That’s what a one party state devolves into. Please stay locked up in California, the “we the people” want their freedom back.
Montage:
Explain how riding by the beach is somehow “safer” in some magical biological sense that being on the beach, Must be “Science” aka political science = power and the exercise of political power to force compliance. Consent of the governed, look it up.
Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) accused Michigan protesters last week of depicting “some of the worst racism” in America’s history. According to the Michigan governor, those protesting her coronavirus measures had “swastikas, Confederate flags, nooses.” Whitmer said, “We know that people are not all happy about having to take the stay-at-home posture, and you know what, I’m not either. The fact of the matter is we have to listen to epidemiologists and public health experts.
Om,
The protestors are in the minority at this point. Most are annoyed but don’t think protesting is the answer. But we’ll see how they feel in July.
Riding by the beach is safer because one is moving rather than gathering. Los Angeles county has 4 million people. If the beaches opened it would stand to reason people would storm the beaches [and the parking lots] and be in close contact thus contracting the virus and spreading it far and wide. Riding a bicycle or parking blocks away to walk close enough to see the ocean keeps the numbers down. I know the crowds on the weekends and it would be impossible to keep six feet away. While now with fewer people it’s easy to keep distance. Sure, it’s a sort of forced compliance. So is the history of humans and civil society. The ideas of John Locke come to mind.
That said beaches are open in Ventura country and in Orange county the sheriff has said he will not enforce the law. But it’s not really about beaches. People want to get back to work. I get that. If things are still shut down by July or August I may join a protest myself…
Again who is this “we” you keep speaking of? Lockdown until July or August and you may join a protest? Nope, you will be in a bread line if you are lucky.
“Safer because one is moving rather than gathering?” Oh, I thought it was the magic 2 meter spacing that made one safe? How fast do you have to be moving on your magic bicycle and must it always be in motion for you to be safe and not violating the Governor’s whim? Is that specified and if not why not? Sort of forced compliance; Bill of Rights, who needs it in California? Not Montage.
You just like to be ordered about and told what is allowed today.
To test for the virus you are mixing a probe of about 20 nucleotides and primer sequences on either side of the probe. The probe has been selected by looking at the virus RNA, trying to find a stretch that is typical of the virus but not typical of any other virus and/or protein. It’s like finding 10 adjacent pieces of a jigsaw puzzle that would be recognizable by a computer as specific to that puzzle. If this reagent matches the sample, the probe and its primers are allowed to multiply in a geometric progression by adding RNA polymerase and then we can find the answer by adding a florescent complimentary reagent and centrifuging the mix and reading with UV light. This is called the PCR test….polymerase chain reaction.
It is easy to look for these specific RNA sequences in a quantitative way. Eg per volume of air or per volume of water or feces or sewage.
To know whether to relax lock-down restraints, one could measure in a quantitative way the viral load before lock down, during lock down, and after lockdown is relaxed. This could be looked at in the air of a busy intersection or in the sewage coming from a downtown neighborhood, or whatever, and we could then correlate this with deaths or infections and try to figure out some safety levels that would tell us what to do without guessing so much. By quantifying viral load we might have a much more reliable way of assessing safety in relaxing lock down situations.
Kurt Schlichter has a good essay up at Town Hall
https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2020/04/30/questions-reporters-might-ask-liberals-if-they-didnt-suck-n2567837?300
The whole thing is well worth reading for Mr. Schlichter’s usual, humorous take. The article is a reply to the moronic reporter who asked President Trump the question comparing Viet Nam deaths to COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. Mr. Schlichter lists a series of questions he would like to ask the reporters. I’m listing the questions below, but again, click over and read the whole thing (as the kids say).
Montage: “And most everyone who has been furloughed is getting unemployments plus $600 more per week”
Maybe YOU are; but, I know several here in my state and neighboring state where the system has been so overwhelmed that many have not received ANY unemployment; yet they filed back in March. Now, it is MAY for Pete’s sake! A month and a half later.
I only know of one person who has received there federal “stimulus check.”
And, while you, and others may be sitting in a position of privilege can say “well, you are getting $600 extra” please keep in mind it is NOT the same as earning your own wages.
Too many folks are being hurt by these “lock downs” – too many dreams and lives being knocked out. for what? So, some politicians can claim they “did something”? Or is it to give people a false sense of security.
Here is a frightening (to me anyway) anecdote. I remember reading the book “Anne Frank Remembered” which is the story by the woman, Miep Gies, who helped to hide Anne, her family, and the others in their hide out. It is well worth reading to see what fascists are capable of. And also what those who truly love freedom are willing to do.
One of the things in the book is how Miep Gies tells how she had to buy food for 8 people in hiding, herself and her fiancee. She tells how she didn’t want to buy too many potatoes in one place as that might look suspicious. So, she went to one market to buy enough potatoes for two (if questioned she could always claim they were for her and her fiancee). Took those home. Then went to another market to buy enough potatoes for two. And took those home. and so on, until she had enough food for all the people in hiding. I remembering reading that passage and thinking ‘”wow, this is what fascists do is monitor what you can and cannot buy. Man, we are lucky in this country where government officials don’t do that.”
I never thought that it would come to such a situation in this country. Some state governments are not telling you what or how much you can buy to ensure there is enough to go around. Rationing of scarce items would be acceptable to most people. Not the case here; these state and local government are telling you what you cannot buy or do because they do not trust you! Not unlike the Nazis and their sympathizers they think you are up to no good!
The politicians are trying to micromanage people’s lives and tell them it is for their own good. While these politicians go on living their lives with all their privilege.
Now, if these politicians, and government workers, also did without their income during these lock downs I would be more willing to listen to them. If they based their decisions on science instead of political motives I would be willing to listen to them.
Oh, and New York politicans need to not do what Hillary did and call voters names. Seriously, calling voters “knuckleheads’? Really, Democrats? Like that is going to make me support you, vote for you, or even believe you more.
P.S., sorry for this post to go all “Godwin’s Law” – but, fascists comparisons are just begging to be made.
It’s really short sighted to say that everybody is getting their unemployment plus payments and $1200 so just relax. When/if this ordeal is over how many people are going back to normal right away so how many thousands of restaurants, movie theatres, retail stores will cut way back on staff if not immediately go out of business. I’ve read that something like 2/3 of all restaurant workers are currently out of work. That’s many millions and not all will come back and the UE plus ends at the end of July.
Then throw in the millions of hotel, tourism, sport support, and countless other jobs that will be slow to come back and the more the snowflakes cower in their apartments in fear the longer the damage will be felt.
What an unbelievable political calamity at every level from the very top to governors, mayors and countless faceless bureaucrats and supposed ‘experts’.
Just a quick note on the virus stats which I am still tracking everyday. Not much has changed except I’ve started noticing an inconsistency in the data. For weeks now, the “active cases” continues to add about 20,000/day. Very strange in that we are told we have reached peak, yet like clockwork another 20,000 every day. What’s even more bizarre is that “serious cases” for almost 20 days has been flat, though with some large variations. What bothers me is that if we add 20,000 new active cases every day, then there should also be added about 600 new “serious cases” also everyday; it should be climbing right along with active cases. So which one is wrong?? I tend to think active cases given the anecdotal reports of hospital capacities. The only other explanation is that the active cases is going up due to testing and maybe counting those who just show positive but are not really active.
Not sure what sort of games are being played here.
I think we have mission creep. The purpose of the lockdown was to gradually expose the public to the virus and not overwhelm the hospitals all at once. Now it seems that some governors think they can prevent the public from being exposed to the virus at all if they just continue the lockdown. Ain’t gonna happen.
Some governors just can’t conceive returning to the pre-panic level of control that they imposed on the public; it’s for their own good don’t you know.
About those pulse oximeters – this article showed up today about “happy hypoxia”
https://www.dailywire.com/news/mysterious-covid-19-condition-dubbed-happy-hypoxia-puzzles-doctors
A key paragraph to explain this issue – “A normal blood-oxygen saturation is at least 95%. In most lung diseases, such as pneumonia, falling saturations accompany other changes, including stiff or fluid-filled lungs, or rising levels of carbon dioxide because the lungs can’t expel it efficiently. It’s these features that leave us feeling short of breath—not, counterintuitively, low oxygen saturation itself, says Paul Davenport, a respiratory physiologist at the University of Florida. “The brain is tuned to monitoring the carbon dioxide with various sensors,” Davenport explains. “We don’t sense our oxygen levels.””
So, there are patients coming in with low O2 levels but still feeling ok. But, this effect may also explain why some people seem to crash so fast.The normal signs for a disease process going on is not that obvious and the virus is able to take over the body. This also supports the suggestion that the HCQ-Zn-ZPac cocktail should be started early in the course of the disease.
BTW – I checked the MedCram channel on You Tube and they have removed two videos from the list for violating their terms of service.
Physicsguy:
I can’t speak for all places but I am seeing a big push in places like Facebook and local news for vast expansion of testing. A lot of my FB friends are in Arizona, where COVID-19 has had a minimal effect in the major metro areas. There is a clamor for expanded testing (“We need X tests per day as we reopen blah blah blah”). The predictable outcome will be a mass freakout when the case count goes up, which will lead some percent of the population to demand further lockdown. I suspect that this is a feature, not a bug, of whatever entity is initiating the testing push even as figures seem to be dropping in places where I am monitoring.
There has been a misunderstanding among the FB crowd – even among people I know IRL who are smart people – about the relationship between testing and outcome. “Places that test more have lower fatality rates!” they say, while demanding more testing, as if the testing itself has some magical properties of reducing deaths. When you try to explain to them that the reason places which do more testing have lower fatality rates is because they find more minor cases that don’t in result in death, thus reducing the fatality-per-case ratio, it goes straight through them and they panic when they see more cases.
It seems that the left’s plan regarding these protests, and it will likely work, is to attack them as they did the tea party rallies.
First, they say the people who attend these protests are all racists. Throw in a few plants with offensive signs, take some pictures, and distribute them, and people will be afraid to attend and get labeled with the scarlet R.
Second, and this part will be pushed by the intelligentsia like the despicable Dr. Birx, call all the protesters stupid and uneducated. Call them “anti-science” for good measure. Even if people might consider protesting the draconian edicts like the prohibition of the sale of seeds as pro-science, no one wants to be labeled as stupid.
People will continue to cower in their homes not out of fear of the cold virus but out of fear of being called racist or stupid until the electioneering machine has declared the Democrat the winner in November. Those of us who haven’t lost their life savings or didn’t off themselves will be free to do all our Christmas shopping in reopened stores without threat of the virus.
@Lurker May 3, 4:41pm
Blaming law schools for tyrant lawyers is about as sensible as blaming medical schools for abortionist MDs.
Here in Florida more and more people with common sense have quietly been ignoring restrictions that no longer appear necessary in light of the data regarding the local virus experience. Only the most vulnerable are taking precautions to avoid the virus. While the State still has broad rules in place which may be more reasonable for the few dense urban areas, the restrictions are not being considered worth enforcing by local officials. Such services as barbershops, retail, and repair operations are open and thriving. Outdoor restaurant dining is pretty common. Some shoppers choose to wear masks and others don’t. Everyone is polite and not getting upset whether social distancing guidelines are being followed or ignored. Individual choice, discretion and freedom is being respected more each day. Soon the politicians will have to jump in front of the growing parade if they want to appear to be leading the community’s return to normal.
physicsguy:
I think it can be explained by increased testing of people with no symptoms or slight symptoms. If more and more mild cases are being diagnosed, you would expect a steep climb in cases but not much of a change in serious cases.
Montage:
Take your magic bicycle and ride it into the sunset:
https://www.redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2020/05/04/bowing-to-protest-pressure-cas-newsom-announces-some-business-openings-this-week/