The second wave…
It stands to reason that there would be a second wave. This is especially true if the first one was clamped down so quickly – as in Hokkaido – that few people gained immunity.
I trust the figures from Japan. Not so from China, but for what it’s worth, the Chinese have revised their death numbers:
China’s state-run media on Friday reported that the death toll in the city of Wuhan — the initial epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic — was off by almost 1,300 due to lapses in reporting.
The new numbers raised the total number of deaths in the central Chinese city by more than 50 percent to 3,869 and took the national death toll to 4,632.
Many American lawmakers, including President Trump, have speculated that China had been covering up its true number of COVID-19 deaths, but Beijing on Friday denied that the misreporting was part of a cover-up, Reuters reports.
I don’t think anything China says should be believed. They have forfeited any trust they might otherwise have had, which wasn’t all that much to begin with.
A few days ago, I saw a variation on that meme that has Jason Sudeikis, Jennifer Aniston, Emma Roberts, and… that teenage boy…. Anyway, it seems germane to discussing China’s reported stats. I wish I could embed here, but since I can’t
Top left: Spain: We have 18K deaths!
Top Right: Italy: We have 20K deaths!
Bottom left: USA: We have 24K deaths!
Bottom right: China: Wait.. you guys are counting?
Just reported by Ace (ace.mu.nu) of the Santa Clara CA population sampling study of Wuhan virus (COVID-19), (actual study – someone doing science not just models. – om opinion)
April 17, 2020
Study: 50 to 85 Times as Many People May Have Been Exposed to Coronavirus Than Who Have Tested Positive for It, Indicating That the Chinese Flu is Far Less Deadly Than Models Suggest
Plus: Covid Briefing
ace.mu.nu/
here is the link to the study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
I read an article about Hokkaido earlier. Frightening.
China obviously trying to pretend they are being “candid”
The first wave wasn’t much, relatively speaking.
Did you mean second wave of hype?
China’s deaths are estimated in the millions. Six figures at least.
This is because the weapon was bio engineered specifically to target Asian males.
The Deep State needed some kind of disaster in China for political reasons, and to seize power from the ruling Chinese dynasties. It gets complicated.
The Cabal plan has a second, third, fourth, stage plus other ancillary “doomsday” weapons and triggers.
Please sign a permission slip authorizing the death of the Deep State. Otherwise… you may be a permanent slave in the Matrix by giving your assent to their Rule.
My faction does not need nor desire your hate or you fighting in the streets or in some war. Your powers are negligible compared to the elohim. You only need to ask for aid and to admit to yourselves that you cannot defeat evil by yourselves.
Do you consent to become a slave of the Deep State, plus other programs like mandatory vaccination, yes or no. https://twitter.com/RealCandaceO/status/1250490791258177541?s=20 https://phibetaiota.net/2020/04/robert-f-kennedy-jr-is-bill-gates-satans-spawn-or-merely-a-geek-gone-mad-and-turned-traitor/
There are all kinds of problems with the CDC/WHO vaccine businesses and conflict of interests. It’s another Deep State Mafia.
Yoiks!
An interesting article claiming that the virus was bio-engineered in an attempt at making an AIDS vaccine.
https://www.gilmorehealth.com/chinese-coronavirus-is-a-man-made-virus-according-to-luc-montagnier-the-man-who-discovered-hiv/
This update is not surprising…The Chinese have a fetish for “Saving Face” and will minimize Things That Go Wrong to accomplish that goal.
The Ruling party is especially devoted to “Saving Face” since they are trying to be top dogs in a culture that has elements of a Shame Society. From individuals in a family to President Xi and Associates, one must be right all the time: where Western people put candor and honesty as social goals, the Chinese use Face for Brownie Points and Status.
Expect another surprising discovery of an equally breath-taking undercount in about two weeks…you heard it here.
Remember that one percent death rate in a society of 1.4 billion is 14 million…impressive, eh?
It is insanity to trust China or anything Chinese. It is also insanity to turn China into the sole source of the goods we formerly made and now critically depend on.
Have we forgotten that China is a TOTALITARIAN state which seeks our destruction? Under its “mandate from heaven”!
If Trump loses re-election, the doom of the USA is essentially assured.
Cited by Powerlineblog.com
https://medium.com/@jbgeach/changing-the-goalposts-four-more-reasons-it-is-safe-to-open-america-560cfc0ab4c3
He addresses, briefly, “the second wave.”
He was also interviewed in episode 181 of the Powerlineblog podcast which is available at the richochet web site, free downloadable.
Does anyone remember when China tried to smuggle in 1 million pounds of pork likely contaminated by African swine fever into New Jersey and the Feds seized it in the “biggest agricultural bust in history”?
Many thought that this was an attempt from China to cripple the US economy by biologically decimating our livestock supply (much in the way China’s had recently been).
This happened last March.
That story sure disappeared down the wormhole before it ever became known how much of the smuggled pork really was contaminated with the virus. Considering almost all of China’s pigs/pork supply was infected by this outbreak at the time, there’s a good chance that a huge smuggled load of it was too.
And before you start claiming that this didn’t happen (it was difficult to find much on it with a google search), here’s a short article from the NY Daily News right after the bust. Funny I can’t find any articles that are follow-ups to this initial reporting.
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-news-pork-smuggled-china-new-jersey-port-20190317-story.html
So, if the coronavirus (engineered or not) was sent to infect the world, and specifically the US, it likely wasn’t even China’s first major attempt to do engage in biological warfare with us this year.
The Wuhan Flu may have accidentally escaped from the lab
It may be that the lab was innocently studying a naturally occurring RNA
BUT
When it did appear in Wuhan, China locked down the city
China stopped all DOMESTIC travel to/from the city
China DID NOT STOP INTERNATIONAL travel to/from the city
Thus China seeded it throughout the world
Thus China effectively made the Wuhan Flu a biological weapon
Just so the playing field would be leveled, i.e. all other nations would suffer just as China would suffer
DECOUPLE, DECOUPLE, DECOUPLE
No links on test issues, yet, but wife & ministry of health discuss tests:
It seems that there is one gene (“E”), which tests positive for this Wuhan virus — but also many other coronaviruses, having that same gene.
So many “positives” are false positives for this Wuhan virus.
This could be the case in the homeless shelter in Boston – such info is not yet usually reported.
The better tests use 2 genes. But the second gene is so long that some primers can’t use it. So some private labs (in Slovakia) are only using the E gene test, finding “positive”, sending the patient to the hospital, where it is found they are not Wuhan virus positive.
There are other tests that use other genes.
Because the tests are not fully compatible, the numbers of false positives and false negatives can and will be quite different.
Good testing is expensive, and lots of already done testing is so inconsistent that using the test data introduces test errors as yet another “known unknown” into the long list of unknowns we have. Plus it casts doubt on whether any of our “known knowns” are actually accurate.
Usually when one of our “known knowns” is actually wrong is when we make the worst policy. (Like “knowing” Hillary will win?)
Morning update: Serious cases had a slight uptick but of only 200 cases. There has now been 4 days of flattening of the serious cases. Active minus assumed recovered now perfectly fit with a Gaussian function and starting down which should accelerate in about 3 -4 days. CT should reach peak in 3-4 days; it seems to lagging behind other states such as NC and NH.
Got into a facebook discussion, well maybe argument, with two young ladies one of whom is a PhD student and the other a newly minted PhD. The newly minted PhD apparently does some epidemiology modeling. It was really amazing how quickly they resorted to “We have Phds in this subject and you don’t so we know better!” They attacked the Israeli paper because the author was a statistician and not an epidemiologist. They conveniently ignored the new Stanford study. I, unfortunately, remember at the same age and career level also being filled with such hubris. Hopefully they will learn with time and many mistakes not to take themselves so seriously.
Thank you, physicsguy.
It’s almost certain we will see some states “opening” in the next fortnight. We should have some numbers on what wave 2 looks like in early June. Hopefully it is a weak rebound!
The lockdowns may have prevented hospitals from being overwhelmed, although this is not certain; it is certain that US hospitals are not overwhelmed, even in the NY area, where it’s been very bad. The lockdowns may also have given researchers some time to identify therapies. The FDA could let go of the double-blind random standard in this emergency, in my opinion. But whatever good the lockdowns may have done, the economic disaster must stop. Being a septuagenarian, I’m staying home for quite some time to come. Younger people need to be released and get on with their lives. Schools must open. Services must be provided. The virus is out there, and trying to test everyone and do contact tracing in the US is not going to work. Treat the sick, protect the elderly if possible. Enough.
The BBC article on the second wave in Hokkaido is odd. There is a moderate discussion of how the officials are afraid of a second wave of fear from the citizenry, which I completely believe is possible and likely.
But, where is the evidence of an actual second wave of infection and disease? From the article we are given this,
Prof Shibuya:
“We are in the middle of an explosive phase of the outbreak,”
OK. Some facts might have been nice.
Kate, I am very much in accord with you. I live in CA and did not oppose the “sheltering” here; I feared we were a likely hotspot because of the amount of traffic and commerce CA has with China and Asia. But the numbers here have stayed very low. When I started looking at numbers a week or two before the shutdown CA and NY were very close. Now the case rate in NY is over 10x higher and the death rate over *30*x higher! Even here in the Bay Area the rates are not too bad and outside the urban areas the rates are very low like sparsely populated Mountain and Plains states. CA shut down a few days earlier but I doubt this accounts for the entire difference. It may be a question whether the shutdown was really needed at all but it is time to go back to work.
Tommy Jay: like you I read that BBC article looking for data to justify the “second wave” scare talk and didn’t find it. I expect new case rates to go up when lockdowns are ended but how much and whether that justifies extending the lockdown is another matter.
Well here is a rather harsh assessment of epidemiological models:
https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/18/after-repeated-failures-its-time-to-permanently-dump-epidemic-models/
From Powerlineblog.com