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Let’s compare Vermont and New Hampshire on COVID-19 — 37 Comments

1. Neo:

   Will there be a “pining for the fijords” that is coined for the Wuhan virus? I noticed you used the phrase “that carried a lot of people off.” Your writing is elegant, as usual, even for such grim things.

2. My guess is that at the end of this it will be health care that is what decides these differing rates.

   Specifically the quality of hospitals and care homes in preventing cross-infection. How organised they are in keeping staff safe and unstressed and able to cope. Possibly the openness of doctors to trying new treatments.

   Like most health care, it won’t be expensive equipment, it will be all the little things. How clean and how well managed.

3. 9 or 23 deaths is too small a number to draw conclusions from. 90 or 230 could even be up to chance.

4. Isn’t a possible factor that though Vermont borders directly only on upstate NY which is less impacted, it has long been a refuge from NYC?

5. The death rate per million population is all over the map, even for larger and broadly similarly situated countries. Take Europe, even aside from the trainwrecks in Italy and Spain: According to worldometers.info, France, Belgium, Netherlands, and Switzerland are all above 50. Portugal, Ireland, Norway, Austria, Germany are all 20 and below. Some of it might be the isolated clusters that pop up as in Washington State, but that’s more doubtful to explain differences across countries with 10 to 80 million people. Eventually with enough good data we might be able to sort out the explanations.

6. I live about 20 minutes from the NY/VT border. And while what I am about to propose isn’t likely to be a full explanation, I believe its a big factor:

   Lots and lots of aging, pot smoking hippies. Hordes of ’em. They’re everywhere in Vermont and they don’t give a crap about much of anything. And right behind them, they’re kids and grandchildren aren’t much different.

   We groan when we see their green license plates swerving all over the road.

7. At one point, 7 of the 12 deaths in Vermont recorded up to that point were attributable to an outbreak at a single nursing home.

   Steven Sailer has been promoting the idea that one vector has been people on ski trips.

8. The two states’ medical systems are a tad different. Dartmouth Medical Center has ‘affiliated’ hospitals in Lebanon, Keene, Windsor and New London. Southeast NH has the population to support hospitals in Manchester and Nashua, and is also so close to the great Boston hospitals.
   UVermont Med Ctr has several hospitals in NY State under its umbrella, and only two in VT, in Middlebury and Berlin. It’s ‘close’ to Albany, NY, not quite the same as Boston.
   VT has 14 hospitals total, NH 28, in proportion to the population difference.

   I don’t know if the corona death difference is seriously significant, 9 vs 23; I rather doubt it. It could literally flip overnight.

   In any event, I’d prefer care from Dartmouth-Hichcock than UVT.

9. Bernie socialized the virus so everyone got their fair share.

   (that was a /sarc in case some of our trolls missed it)

10. Given Cuomo saying numbers dropping (herd immunity?), the market took off like a bat out of hell holding meatloaf…

11. New Hampshire has 3x the Chinese..
    and in the early days many Chinese came here from china to escape..
    and of course, a percentage of escapees carried things to family/friends here

    and
    Vermont and New Hampshire, geographic twins, cultural aliens
    https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2007/11/vermont-and-new-hampshire-geographic-twins-cultural-aliens/

    To help refine how the two states are different, he and his research partner this year used online research to track a list of “sociocultural indicators” that had cultural resonance.

    Included were the number of Birkenstock dealers (per capita, Vermont has twice as many); vegetarian restaurants and hemp product dealers (Vermont is ahead); Harley-Davidson dealerships (New Hampshire wins); and Dairy Queens (Vermont, the land of Ben & Jerry’s, has none).

    [skip]

    Vermont’s re-branding also frankly avowed progressive culture. Dorothy Canfield’s 1932 pamphlet “Vermont Summer Houses,” published by the state, was “full of cultural talk,” said Kaufman — intimations of an anti-modernist land where books were more important than cars and where writers, dancers, and artists were welcome.

    Around the same time, by contrast, one official New Hampshire state guidebook began by offering a welcome to manufacturers.

    There were other signs of the cultural divergence, said Kaufman, including Vermont’s Depression-era progressive colleges (Bennington opened in 1931, and Goddard in 1938). And the power of the 1954 classic “Living the Good Life,” by Helen and Scott Nearing, which told the story of their escape in 1932 from the city to a farm in Vermont. (They eventually moved to Maine.)

12. Fractal Rabbit, you said what I was trying to say, just in a different way.

13. There are many curious things about COVID19 state to state. So far in Iowa, deaths for those aged 18 to 60 are almost 3 times higher than those of ages 61 and up. Neighbouring states are not the same. Death seems to randomly knock on doors.

14. Artfldgr:

    If you look at Wiki, you’ll see that Vermont has a higher percentage of Asians (2.6%) than NH (2.2%). NH has a higher number, but it has double the population so that makes sense. However, both states are very very white. Of course, the data isn’t broken down into people from China itself or who visit China, vs. people of Chinese origin who have little to do with China these days and/or people of Asian descent from other countries in Asia.

    My point is that the differences between COVID rates in the two states are highly unlikely to have anything to do with Chinese residents or ties.

    I’m well aware of the large economic as well as political differences between the two states and have written about that in this blog several times before – for example here. But the differences – such as the urban/rural differences – tend to argue for more COVID in NH rather than less. New Yorkers have country homes in Vermont rather than NH, but the number of NH commuters to Boston and its environs (which has a fair amount of COVID) dwarfs that number.

15. Several people have pointed out that the numbers of deaths are not very big: 9 vs. 23. True, but they come out to a big difference in death rates per capita. Whether it’s statistically significant I haven’t a clue. But I’m also looking at the diagnosed cases – which of course is are figures that are partly dependent on the amount of testing and the criteria for testing in each state. But Vermont has almost as many diagnosed cases as New Hampshire, and yet it has half the population. In that case, the n is rather large.

16. There are many curious things about COVID19 state to state. So far in Iowa, deaths for those aged 18 to 60 are almost 3 times higher than those of ages 61 and up. Neighbouring states are not the same. Death seems to randomly knock on doors.

    There have been 25 deaths in Iowa reported to date. I’ve found statements in news reports and public heath circulars on the first five cases (all over 60) and the most recent 14 (all but one over 60).

17. Art Deco,

    Try coronavirus.iowa.gov or continue with your sources that are not official Iowa sources on the ground. Must be a heavy burden to be so all knowing.

18. Yeah, it may be a statistical oddity of no significance.
    But I feel good going with a blue-state/purple-state model.

19. Among all the other after action statistical meta analyses I would be very interested to see a follow up on Fractal Rabbits observation regarding marijuana use and state by state Wuhan Virus morbidity. George Soros won’t be funding such research, since marijuana is the cure for all that ails the body and soul …. 🙂

20. I’ve read about a couple “super spreaders” in recent days. In northern Italy there was discussion of “patient zero” who turned out not to be number zero, but was, as I understand it, a prolific infector of others.

    Here’s another one in Uruguay:

    Even more concerning to Uruguayan authorities are their own citizens returning from truly high-risk areas and not heeding the instructions to self-quarantine for two weeks before mixing with others. An Uruguayan socialite and fashion designer flew home to Montevideo on March 7 and was instructed to shelter for two weeks because she had just visited the hard-hit country of Spain. She actually developed symptoms of the virus the next day, but the airport instructions were evidently not weighing heavily on her conscience after disembarking, because the same day, she arrived she had lunch with her 84-year-old mother and then attended a high-society wedding where, out of the 500 guests, 44 came down with her “Spanish” flu. The poor soul, a kind of modern Typhoid Mary, now complains that some are calling her a terrorist for importing death and destruction.

    My not terribly original point is that 3 or 4 major spreaders could account for hundreds of excess infections in a state. I find Fractal Rabbit’s comment about stoners in VT amusing, but also plausible.

    A bit over half of the VT infections are in Chittenden county, which includes the large city Burlington, but also my favorite ski mountain in the NE U.S., Mount Mansfield. Colorado, ski mecca to the U.S., has also been hard hit.

    These thoughts segue into the topic of who’s being responsible and who’s being irresponsible, and why, and the impact. That’s a big and ragged topic so I’ll stop.

21. If, the virus gets into a nursing home/assisted living facility, the deaths will definitely skew the numbers.
    Seattle got hit early in a Kirkland facility; meanwhile in the Tri-Cities, on the opposite side of the state, a couple visited friends in Seattle just before the outbreak started. They both died and now there are 18 deaths in three facilities in the area. The three cities, Richland, Kennewick and Pasco have a combined population of 185,000. The total confirmed cases in the two county area is only 239. All the deaths are people over 60; 10 in their 80’s and 90’s.

22. parker on April 6, 2020 at 5:14 pm said:

    There are many curious things about COVID19 state to state. So far in Iowa, deaths for those aged 18 to 60 are almost 3 times higher than those of ages 61 and up. Neighbouring states are not the same. Death seems to randomly knock on doors.
    ________________________________________________________________

    parker:

    I haven’t done the math, but I’m sure that state-by-state demographic data are available for computing the ratio of cases per age group to the state’s total population for that age group. I believe that Iowa has a population fraction of older people that’s far greater than most other states. Of course that wouldn’t explain the pattern you discuss. In fact, it just adds to its contrariness.

    Maybe the contrary pattern in Iowa’s distribution of cases by age group can be explained by geography and social distancing. Many small towns and farms have large concentrations of older people. Small towns and farms have natural social distancing. On the other hand, younger people are concentrated in the more densely populated cities, and that’s where the infection has spread. Again, I haven’t looked up the data, but I think that, compared to neighboring states, Iowa has a larger population fraction living in small towns and on farms.

    Just a guess.

23. Cicero,

    There’s a University of Vermont Medical system hospital near Albany? That’s one I’m not aware of. Do you know the name of it?

24. Try coronavirus.iowa.gov or continue with your sources that are not official Iowa sources on the ground. Must be a heavy burden to be so all knowing.

    I checked the number on worldometers.

25. Cornflour,

    Your guess is on the mark. Many rural counties have 1 to 0 COVID19 associated deaths 6 out of 99 counties account for 80% plus of the deaths.

26. Brian E;

    Yep, weeks ago Mike Bunge said I and the Tri-Cities (eastern WA) had no skin in the game. I’m not in that cohort but I know quite a few long time friends who are.

27. There’s a University of Vermont Medical system hospital near Albany? That’s one I’m not aware of. Do you know the name of it?

    They’re 2-3 hours away from Albany in Franklin, Clinton, and Essex Counties. They’re all closer to Burlington than to Albany. (They’re closer to Montreal than to Albany).

28. Art Deco,

    Always look closer to home. Local info is always closer to reality than globalist reality, except when China is concerned. Sheesh is this not obvious? Worldometer, really? Next you will be relying on WHO.

29. TommyJay – my brother in a nice middle-sized town in Texas reported that a couple who came back from China or Italy (don’t remember now which one) refused to self-isolate, and the police put ankle monitors on them and told them to stay home.

    Don’t mess with Texas.

30. AesopFan,
    That was my first thought about the fashionista returning from Montevideo. They should have put an ankle monitor on her. Then someone has to follow that up.

31. You must not be from the northern NE states. As someone who grew up in Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts, I can tell you that the reason for the Vermont disparity is due to the old, fat, hairy, dope-smokin’, sandal-wearin’, bearded-genius commies that live there, and their lifestyles. Of course in reality it’s statistically insignificant.

32. There are places that should be a cluster that are not. San Francisco (the city/county) had today its 9th death. Only 9 in a city of almost a million, the densest city on the west coast, (18,800 people per square mile).

    So many reasons it should be a cluster:
    It is a major tourist hub.
    A major convention location.
    Thousands of street people camp on sidewalks.
    A large Chinatown right in downtown.
    In February they had a giant Chinese New Year parade with thousands crammed together.
    On February 24th, Nancy P. went to the SF Chinatown to encourage people to come.

    Yet only 9 deaths. There does seem to be an element of random luck in who gets it, or not.

33. Art Deco,

    Thanks. You’re correct: those are much closer to Burlington (and Montreal) than to Albany.

    A friend of mine had a family tragedy: my friend and his wife took their newborn twins to the doctor at two weeks old. While there, one twin stopped breathing. After nurses resuscitated the child, she spent the next 3 months at Burlington’s children’s hospital. Ultimately, they decided she had suffered too much brain damage and pulled the plug on her ventilators. But they still remain admirers of the care they received at that hospital.

34. My point is that the differences between COVID rates in the two states are highly unlikely to have anything to do with Chinese residents or ties.

    Given my wife is chinese, i get to quibble.. we knew many people who suddenly came from the actual province with the disease in the early days… the neighbors of my cousin had 5 people from a covid hot spot come and move in upstairs…

    unlike americans the chinese are extreemly linked up people. the people who arent are actually the outliers… until i became chinese family myself i never realized how much so… its way different than westerners.

    a westerner who is popular may have 20-30 contacts on their phone.. a Chinese person who is popular can EASILY have 10 times that much… my Facebook has over 20 people all Chinese… as they linked up with me once i opened up..

    you can be SURE that everywhere there were chinese, there were visitors..

    and many are here because they have factories or work in asia, and the parts of what they make are assembled here to make the finished product to avoid duty charges.. i know several who are doing that, one a family member whose son stayed with us while they lived in china so he could go to Seton Hall..

    IF you dont know chinese people and culture you do not know it… its very different from modern western peoples… (i say modern for a reason)

35. Identifying cultural differences and similarities: China vs. the US

    1) Chinese society is all about the group, while Americans celebrate the individual. The United States is a meritocracy in which individuals can shine, while in China, any success is regarded as a success for the company, or the family, or the team. A Chinese person will consider how their actions may affect the group as a whole rather than looking out only for themselves.

    3) Conversation in China can feel somewhat direct to Americans. Even though Americans like to place people in context in the search for common ground, small talk about age, income and marital status, all favoured by the Chinese, can feel intrusive and overly personal to an American. Having said this, Chinese visitors to the United States can find the language and tone used in American workplaces rude and uncomfortable. Thinking before you speak is important to the Chinese, as is showing respect for those higher in the hierarchy.

    5) Chinese people are inclined to foster deeper friendships than Americans. They may see Americans as initially gregarious but difficult to get to know in a deeper context. A friend in China is someone to whom you feel deeply obligated and for whom you will do favors when necessary. This translates into business, where the Chinese will try to forge relationships and connections, known as guanxi. Trust is essential before doing business. Colleagues tend to socialize together as part of relationship building and business entertainment is lavish. Americans, on the other hand, tend to keep work and personal life separate.

    8) Chinese people will avoid confrontation wherever possible with a view to saving face. Shouting at someone causes both parties to lose face and if face is lost in business, a relationship can be permanently damaged. As such, Chinese executives will often avoid giving a straight answer in order to save the other person’s face. Americans, who tend to be very direct and literal, can find this confusing and frustrating.

    9) In China, humility is revered and people tend to downplay their achievements. America is almost the exact opposite; in a meritocracy, you need to make the most of yourself and let people know about your successes. The Chinese can see this as crass and boastful, while in the United States, humility can be regarded as a sign of weakness.

    -=-=-=-=-

    Six Brilliant Illustrations of Chinese and Western Cultural Differences

    The Chinese-born German artist Yang Lin explores how her two cultures part ways in a series of clever images.

    In lieu of verbal explanations, Yang Liu, a Chinese-born artist who has lived in Germany since she was 14, expressed these differences through ingenious illustrations first put together for an art installation five years ago. Juxtaposing Chinese cultural practices in red with German ones in blue—though the “German” norms are actually common throughout Western countries—the images are simple, evocative, and accurate. Here’s a handful of the best ones, accompanied by captions underneath.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/09/six-brilliant-illustrations-of-chinese-and-western-cultural-differences/280037/

36. Artfldgr on April 7, 2020 at 9:51 am said:
    Identifying cultural differences and similarities: China vs. the US
    * * *
    Very interesting.
    It seems to me that President Trump understands #5 very well, and is trying to drive a hard bargain with China while preserving face for Xi (note that WWE hero wrestlers are “faces”) by complimenting him in public, which the media claims not to understand.

37. Artfldgr:

    My point about Chinese people in Vermont vs. NH wasn’t related to the behavior of those people. It was related to the fact that there is no evidence that at this point in time the percentage of people of Chinese origin differs between the 2 states.

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