If you’re interested in a site for NYC COVID statistics…
…this one seems quite good, particularly in terms of its charts. There’s a bit of a time lag, though.
The New Neo
A blog about political change, among other things
…this one seems quite good, particularly in terms of its charts. There’s a bit of a time lag, though.
neo: That’s a good site.
I like Johns Hopkins and Worldometers but it’s tedious or impossible to break down their number to the city level.
Given that the NYC statistics are to no small extent driving state and national Covid policies — you don’t want to become New York, do you? — those numbers deserve ready access.
I mentioned this link from om in a previous topic which argues that NYC is inflating its death statistics in order to shift national policy:
These figures have frightened people into submission as state and local governments across America enact repressive measures they say are necessary to contain the virus or slow its proliferation.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/new_york_city_is_lying_about_chinese_virus_death_rates.html
I go back and forth on how serious Covid is and how serious our response must be, but it’s harder to figure if places like China or NYC are screwing with the numbers for political purposes.
huxley,
I am 100% certain the CCP is lying. I would not be at all surprised if NYC is inflating their numbers to gather more aid from outside sources, and do I dare say, to gain more national attention.
The mythology and catastrophizing around this virus has really shaken my faith in humanity. I honestly had no idea how many of my real-life friends and family – regardless of politics – are mouth-breathing idiots incapable of forming a critical, logical, independent thought.
On Neo’s link, go to Rates by Age, defaulted to Cases. It shows pretty much the same rates for middle-aged and older adults, across the board. Then flip to Hospitalizations. Note the huge age-specific differences that immediately emerge when you change from the population of people who test positive to the population of people who require hospitalization. Then, slide over to deaths, where the difference is stark.
This is borne out by stats from anywhere that breaks down stats by age, but this one is a particularly obvious presentation.
When my GenX and younger friends hyperventilate on FB about, well, everything, they need to go look at this. The actual chances of basically healthy under-60 crowd of becoming seriously ill are trivial. But they are still sure that 20% of people who become ill will have to be hospitalized – just ask them.
It would be easy to shrug off crowdthink stupidity – it doesn’t matter to me if they run around wearing masks made out of cut-up T-shirts – but because they are so terrified of what they believe, they are _this_ close to attacking people who aren’t equally terrified, doing all of the ineffective and in some cases counterproductive things that they deem necessary. If you try point out any facts that counter their doomster beliefs, you get shouted down in the electronic public square.
I see what leads people to throw pets out of apartment windows.
I see what led to people murdering random innocents that crazed stupid mobs thought were witches.
This is more scary than the meltdown of the world economy. It’s much more scary than the virus itself.
PS – The CCP numbers were wholly inaccurate from the beginning, in part due to excusable reasons like testing capacity, but are entirely fictional at this point.
It’s a very handy site – thanks for the pointer to it, Neo. Like Kyndyll, I saw the big shift in the histogram when switching between cases/hospitalizations/deaths by age. I should try and give some thought to the significance, if any, of the similar but less stark shift in the first graph under Daily Counts when one goes from Hospitalizations to Deaths.
It might be interesting to know how long those who are hospitalized stay hospitalized as well.
The graph of distribution by borough is not without interest, too. Socioeconomic factors? The wealthier boroughs seem to be better off, but one would have to control for all of the other variables, of course.
The “If the rest of the country just gets to where New York is now” tracker for 8:33 pm Friday, April 3, stands at 54,706 deaths.
So, if New York doesn’t have one more death and coronavirus fatalities in the rest of the country only catch up to where New York is right now, we’ll be more than halfway to that 100,000 death projection.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-united-states-coronavirus-outbreak/
And in case anyone is wondering, the CDC says there were 34,200 deaths from influenza in the U.S. for the entire 2018-2019 flu season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Mike
M Bunge:
I don’t understand why you continue to post estimates for if the whole US gets like NY. There are special characteristics of NYC that mean that it is highly likely it will be one of the worst spots (perhaps the worst spot) in the US for this (and big cities are often the worst places for pandemics in general). And of course deaths in NY won’t stop right now, either.
Likewise, what’s the point of writing about the 2018-2019 flu season? Some flu seasons have even fewer deaths than that and some have a lot more. Of course, all flu death totals are always estimates because it is often not tested for, and the estimates keep moving around. For example, see this.
A new hobby horse, but made in NYC?
Hey, exciting news! The NYS DOH changed up its COVID-19 data presentation website with many more goodies. The raw data by county is even downloadable now. I was still hoping they’d have a breakdown by municipality somewhere, because I’m curious what the geographic distribution is on a more granular level; but this is still kind of nice.
I notice that the percentage of cases found upstate compared to downstate is rising a little bit, from 5.7% to 6.7% over the last week-and-a-half or so. Looks like Buffalo, Poughkeepsie and Orange County are the principal drivers of that.
KyndyllG,
Unfortunately I have witnessed much of the same behavior you have, and it can be depressing, but, I suppose I am not really surprised. We always live around a certain percentage of fools and scoundrels, it’s just that when times are more normal they are not always so apparent.
The fools don’t disappoint me as much as the well informed people who know better behaving selfishly.
Comedian Adam Carolla put it succinctly when asked about “white, male privilege.” He replied that there is white, male privilege and what it means is that if you are a white, male you understand that there are a lot of a**holes in the world. If you are in a minority group and someone cuts you off while driving, or jumps in front of you in a line, or does any one of a hundred, rude, selfish social interactions we encounter each day; if those things happen and you are a minority you can think to yourself, “Wow, that gal is racist, or Wow, that guy hates women…” But if you’re a white male you understand; No, that person is just an a**hole.
It’s a joke, but like most jokes it has a kernel of truth. The reality is there aren’t anywhere near as many misogynists and racists among us as there are rude, selfish, ignorant people. Most of us don’t want to face that reality, so it’s more comforting to assume there is some other reason for rude behavior. If you are a white male you are forced to face the depressing reality.
This, https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/hoa-to-people-trying-to-earn-a-living-during-the-lockdown-drop-dead/
is an excellent example of the phenomenon. An HOA sending letters of eviction to residents violating their “work from home” rules because their state’s shelter in place edict is forcing the residents to work from home. If I was the lone black woman living in the complex and I received this letter my first thought would be, “racism.” If I were a white male living in the complex my first thought would be, “The HOA board are a bunch of a**holes.”
I don’t see the point of blacking out the name of the President of that particular homeowners association. It is fitting and proper that his name be made public.
KyndyllG,
My attitude has been that it is inevitable I will be exposed to this directly, as will my spouse and children. I’m not wishing it, but I believe it is nearly unavoidable. First, I’m hoping we have been exposed to it and we had mild or no symptoms. Unlikely, but that’s my first wish.
Second, I am hoping that when we are exposed to it we have mild or no symptoms. Third, I want us all to protect others. We are staying away from the elderly and other folks at higher risk. Fourth, I’m trying to keep my kids from panicking while still ensuring they take it seriously. I’ve been sharing as much data as I can with them, but doing it all in an upbeat, positive manner.
One of my sons has been laid off from his job. It’s a job he was likely to leave soon anyway. I am trying to shift him to thinking about this as an opportunity. He is a Jordan Peterson fan and I’ve been stressing the “hero’s journey” aspect of Peterson’s message. It’s times like these where one can hone one’s video game skills, or one can show up at a hospital and volunteer. Tests like this don’t come up often in one’s life and you want to recognize them when they are in front of you.
I have been surprised by some of my very close friends who are taking very different approaches with their families; basically bolt the doors, close the blinds and hide. Do they think they can avoid this virus forever? Interestingly this seems to be based on net worth. My friends with a lot of wealth cut themselves off very quickly and intend to do that for quite awhile. I know some of them have been expecting social upheaval due to our nation’s debt burden and other political issues, so maybe they are imagining this is the spark? I haven’t been questioning them on their reasoning. My attitude is this is such a unique event and we all have to make our best guesses based on the facts in front of us. My attitude with my family has been to share all relevant data I have. Try to keep my kids from panicking or getting scared, but also ensuring they do not behave recklessly. And looking for ways we can all be of service.
I prefer more of a Winston Churchill during the Blitz attitude than a Marshal Henri Petain approach, but to each his own.
Art Deco,
I certainly agree. I’m not a fan of dox’xing, but in this case I think it is warranted. Also, it’s not a private document. It was a letter distributed to several tenants. Sunlight is a great disinfectant. At the very least, it ought to hurt property values as few folks will want to move to that complex.
There are special characteristics of NYC that mean that it is highly likely it will be one of the worst spots (perhaps the worst spot) in the US for this (and big cities are often the worst places for pandemics in general). And of course deaths in NY won’t stop right now, either.
As far as I can discern, about 95% of the deaths in New York state have occurred in the nine Downstate counties and 40% of the remainder in the three Upstate counties which have knots of commuters and week-end residents. Given the figures for Pennsylvania, I’m wagering the ratio’s the same for New Jersey – that 95% of the cases are in the New York – oriented counties, not the Philadelphia oriented counties. That suggests to me that the mass transit system is an important vector (and it wouldn’t surprise me if the hospital system was as well). Someone once said of New York, “It’s a place where very affluent people often don’t own cars and people of very modest means don’t do their own laundry”.
However, the situation is just gruesome in New Orleans (worse than New York) and bad in Detroit as well. (The other metropolitan counties in Michigan have a few cases here and there; 85% of the cases are in the four counties around Detroit). The dimensions of a seminal cluster of the infected appear to be an important driver. Seattle’s an interesting case, as it had a burst of infections and deaths to begin with, but the flow of new deaths is proceeding at a tempo which about matches the national mean.
The gender data on that site is very interesting. Other countries have reported a similar breakdown. I’ve heard it theorized it may be smoking rates. Maybe? It will be interesting to learn the true reason.
I’m not a fan of dox’xing,
You’re not doxxing. You’re not making public any confidential information. Doxxing would be Neo identifying one of us with her server logs and publishing our name and whatever else she could glean from searching various databases.
I’ve heard it theorized it may be smoking rates. Maybe? It will be interesting to learn the true reason.
I’m going to guess a contributor, but a modest part of the story. The ratio of smokers to non-smokers in France (among those over 15) is 0.37 – or about what it was in this country ca. 1985. That in Italy is about 0.27. That in the U.S. is about 0.17. Currently the death rate (deaths / resident population) is in Italy and Spain running at > 15x that of Germany and > 2x that of France. That’s not smoking.
What I’m hoping happens is if there’s a 2d wave, the response is to resume social distancing and have the elderly and their housemates shelter in place. Social distancing would prohibit dense or numerous gatherings but allow businesses to operate normally otherwise. We’d have to have a great deal of disposable protective equipment, sanitizer, and paper products in the pipeline by fall to make it happen. In New York, it would mean guards at the bottom of every subway escalator saying no one passes without a mask and gloves on.
if those things happen and you are a minority you can think to yourself, “Wow, that gal is racist, or Wow, that guy hates women…
I’m going to wager that between 70% and 95% of the blacks in this country don’t have that reaction to mundane annoyances. Racial particularism emerges when people are in a mode of thought where they are contemplating things other than mundane life. (Though I do recall that Glenn Loury once said that bourgeois blacks have a chronic low grade anxiety about the vicissitudes of life “a rude word from a supervisor” &c).
“… if there’s a 2d wave …” (?)
I don’t see how there cannot be one. It is an incredible tragedy we do not have more, valid data from China as they must be seeing this exact thing, as well as how and when it is working its way through other provinces.
They shut Wuhan down. Now it is supposedly open? If so, is Wuhan seeing a second wave? What is it like?
M Bunge,
Crowding has always been a factor in plagues. Not the only factor, but a significant factor. Read up on the history of the Peloponnesian War and look at the plague that hit Athens after they brought people from the countryside into the city to avoid the Spartans.
Regarding the NYC site: The data for the most recent 3 or 4 days are very incomplete. I checked the 4/3 vs 4/2 release, and they add to the case/hospitalization/death totals going back about 10 days, but especially for the most recent days.
The degree of crowding some cities have already is not enough for the fanatics.
(h/t Powerline)
https://www.startribune.com/katherine-kersten-density-in-a-time-of-coronavirus/569364112/
Plastic bags, mass transit, high density urban living, wonder if the left will just pretend this never happened and stay all in on all these things when this is over.
Griffin – those who aren’t dead will.
That they take down other people with them will never be their fault.
I just had a conversation with my (progressive liberal) ex while I was picking up my daughter. She said that we’ll have to stay isolated for months and months until there’s a vaccine. I replied with the usual: we can’t stay under house arrest that long because we all need to make a living. And that in a couple of months for that reason people would start ignoring the government because they have work to do.
Her reply was interesting: “well, if they do that they’re going to catch it and they’re going to die.”
Jesus, it’s not the flu, but it’s not the Andromeda Strain either.
@Bryan Lovely
You can tell your ex that in Italy we are already making steps in order to go back to work, with some precautions.
https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/lombardia/coronavirus-ordinanza-lombardia-in-giro-con-protezione-su-volto_16939010-202002a.shtml