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Home » FDA to push ahead with malaria drug for COVID-19

FDA to push ahead with malaria drug for COVID-19

The New Neo Posted on by

The malaria drug chloroquine “soon will be made available to the public as part of the government’s response to the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic.”

My impression is that it is already possible to use it under a “compassionate care” policy, and that they’re going to speed up testing and also production. It shouldn’t be that hard, since the drug is an old one and its side effects are already known.

I’m really hoping this turns out to be a very effective treatment, even a game-changer.

Comments

FDA to push ahead with malaria drug for COVID-19 — 72 Comments

  1. “I’m really hoping this turns out to be a very effective treatment, even a game-changer.”

    Me too.

  3. I wrote my doctor on Monday regarding the studies documenting the efficacy of the antiviral medication and he said he could not prescribe it because not FDA approved. Evidence has overruled the bureaucracy and help is on the way. Let’s hope this is one of the magic bullets.

  5. I heard a doctor discuss the malaria drug this afternoon on the radio. He said that your doctor should test you for all the standard flu and cold bugs. He should only prescribe the drug If the tests came up negative and you presented with the China flu symptoms. Otherwise there’s going to be a hysterical run on the drug and shortages. Good advice.

  7. FDA’s position on hydroxychloroquine is that it can be prescribed only under the “compassionate use” rule, and that likely applies to chloroquine too. That rule requires a doc to individually get FDA approval each time that MD seeks to prescribe a compassionate use drug. This is per Scott Hahn, FDA head, at Trump’s presser today, though he did not expand on what the “compassionate use” rule procedure entails. He just said it can be prescribed under that rule, making it seem no problemo!

    The effing FDA will one day kill us by keeping us so very safe.

  8. I should have said “This is apparently per Scott Hahn” since I did not see the presser, just a report.
    But the compassionate use rule as stated is correct.

  9. And it is Stephen Hahn, whom I in my haste crossed with Scott Gottlieb, the former FDA head.

  10. It’s a testament to human ego that “Trump has done a horrible job with this outbreak” is an absolute and unquestioned article of faith among so many when most of the criticism of his handling of this crisis boils down to “He’s not using the words we want him to use!”

    Mike

  11. From my Africa Expat years:

    Chloroquine is very similar to quinine, which was used (also) as an anti-malarial. Quinine also available in tonic water. This is why the cocktail of choice of the African expats was (and still is) the venerable Gin and Tonic.

    Current popular versions of tonic water may have less quinine. The taste is quite bitter. Adding sugar and carbonation made it more palatable.

    In any case, don’t wait for chloroquine. Start right away getting your system full of quinine. G&Ts for everyone!

  12. FDA’s position on hydroxychloroquine is that it can be prescribed only under the “compassionate use” rule, and that likely applies to chloroquine too. That rule requires a doc to individually get FDA approval each time that MD seeks to prescribe a compassionate use drug.

    I don’t understand that, since doctors are free to prescribe any drug that’s been approved for one use to treat something else. It’s called “off label prescription” and it’s completely legal. The FDA is not allowed to regulate the practice of medicine, so it can’t prevent docs from prescribing approved drugs. I thought the “compassionate use” provision was for drugs that hadn’t been approved yet, to allow people with otherwise terminal conditions to roll the dice.

  13. In the FDA’s press release today:

    “As is true for most medical situations, the great American innovators in academia and industry have engaged with us about treatment options. We are extremely encouraged by the interest and promise in the development of the COVID-19-related therapies. We understand and recognize the urgency with which we are all seeking prevention and treatment options for COVID-19. FDA staff are working expeditiously on that front” said FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn, M.D. “We also must ensure these products are effective; otherwise we risk treating patients with a product that might not work when they could have pursued other, more appropriate, treatments. At the same time, we will engage with domestic manufacturers to ramp up production of this product to mitigate any potential supply chain pressures. If clinical data suggests this product may be promising in treating COVID-19, we know there will be increased demand for it. We will take all steps to ensure chloroquine remains available for patients who take it to treat severe and life-threatening illnesses such as lupus.”

  14. This year, flu has killed more people in the US than corona has killed worldwide so far…

    i doubt this will work…
    but they dug themselves a hole pushing this so far
    and they forgot to bring a ladder

  15. I notice that as President Trump makes progress against the Chinese virus, he will not hesitate to use private industry when government agencies have failed to accomplish anything, or when government agencies are the problem. He is proving that the main purpose of red tape is to fill bureaucrats’ rice bowls.

  16. THIS is what i mean by their going nutty trying to collapse things
    there is no explanation as to where he gets his numbers or how he came up with this projection…
    ============================================================
    California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said in a letter to the Trump administration that 56 percent of the state’s population — 25.5 million people — is projected to be infected with the coronavirus over an eight-week period.
    [snip]
    wah wah, we want a mercy ship wah
    [snip]
    Governor Newsom has been honest about the threat of the virus and its impact on the health and welfare of Californians,” he said in a statement to The Hill. “This projection shows why it’s so critical that Californians take action to slow the spread of the disease – and those mitigation efforts aren’t taken into account in those numbers. The state is deploying every resource at its disposal to meet this challenge, and we continue to ask for the federal government’s assistance in this fight.”
    ============================================================
    allow me to take this apart a bit..
    56% of 25.5 million = 14,280,000 people
    divide that by 8 you get 1,785,000
    then divide that by 7 and you get 255,000 a day

    current number of confirmed sick as of tonight in California 1,030
    current number of deaths as of tonight in California 18

    he is looking at 14,280% increase from today…
    the infected would have to go up 256 times current level – Tomorrow
    if not, then it will need more infected in less time to meet that number

    This number is 59 times the global number of infected…

    The number globally couldn’t go that high that fast given the current progression

    the number is 1000 times larger than the current US infected

    technically as an applications engineer in IT and working in research, and doing machine learning (for fun)… i am a professional mathematician of sorts.. So forgive me if i just dont see how to get there from here (and less so given fear and people locking themselves down)…

    remember.. this thing started in december last year.
    its march… at no time in no place did it ever grow that fast and even 1/10th that much yet…

    i want to know how much LSD or XTC he has in his morning cup and also would like to see where and how he derived his numbers for this…

    yeah… my numbers evenly distribute it…
    but the real way it would grow would be even harder to reach than suddenly waking up to a quarter million a day starting tomorrow… if the infected doubled per week that’s only a quarter million… even if it tripled each week it would be only 6 million…

    what am i missing here?

    ==================================================
    On Thursday the administration said it would send another Navy hospital ship, the Comfort, to the New York City harbor. Also on Thursday, CNN reported that the administration plans to send Mercy to Seattle in the next five to 10 days. Washington is one of the states hit hardest by the virus, with more than 1,887 confirmed cases and 68 deaths.

  17. Italian coronavirus patient recovers after treatment with antiviral drug remdesivir; 79 year old Italian man makes full recovery

    Could a drug already in existence turn out to be the gamechanger countries around the world are searching for to defeat coronavirus? This is what researchers at US drug firm Gilead are currently investigating, spurred by reports of the apparent recovery of an Italian patient who had tested positive for the virus. On Tuesday evening, reports emerged that a 79-year-old man from Italy’s Liguria region represented “the first real case of coronavirus cured” and that the man would soon be discharged from hospital.

  18. “The effing FDA will one day kill us by keeping us so very safe.” – Cicero

    They started doing that a long time ago.
    AesopSpouse is in the medical machines field, and knows how long discoveries and patents are held up by their oh-so-helpful regulations, many of which are long obsoleted by advances and technology.

    I support their mission, but not their methods.

  19. And if the FDA doesn’t kill you, the Democrats will, by releasing prisoners and turning a blind eye to new crimes — so that the perps won’t get sick in jail (they may be safer there, if the guards and other prisoners are checked effectively and they are sequestered in the same way non-criminals out here are).

    China sacrificing thousands of people to defeat Trump is nothing to what Leftists will do in America’s cities.

    Because the criminals are really, really going to play nice because somebody asked them pretty please.
    And note the piecrust promise – why should anyone believe the mayor will let the police actually arrest violent perps now, when they haven’t in the past?
    (h/t whoever posted this link on another thread)

    https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/03/18/we-need-those-beds-baltimore-mayor-urges-people-to-put-down-guns-after-violence-continues-during-covid-19-pandemic/

    “For those of you who want to continue to shoot and kill people of this city, we’re not going to tolerate it,” [Mayor] Young implored. “We’re going to come after you and we’re going to get you.”

    He urged people to put down their guns because “we cannot clog up our hospitals and their beds with people that are being shot senselessly because we’re going to need those beds for people infected with the coronavirus. And it could be your mother, your grandmother or one of your relatives. So take that into consideration.”

    Commissioner Michael Harrison said the city has seen an uptick in violent crimes since Friday, including a mass shooting Tuesday night — where seven people were shot.

  21. From the Diamond Princess post –
    Dick Illyes on March 19, 2020 at 8:05 am said:
    This lengthy article is the best coverage I have seen: https://drlindseyberkson.com/coronavirus-update-integrative-natural-answers/
    * * *
    I read through that very long article and there were some good suggestions and interesting medical information.

    The Doctor undercut his credibility with me somewhat by repeating the debunked talking points about mismanaged Government Leadership (his sub-head), that is, the alleged elimination of the pandemic team (they were reassigned to a re-organized streamlined department) and the pulling of CDC funds (didn’t happen, although it was suggested) which caused it to “slash its efforts to prevent global disease outbreak” (actually had to cut back on all the off-mission boutique efforts to make gun control a health problem).
    The stories are easily found on the Webz.

    However, I’ve come to expect that kind of mindless mantra massaging from just about anyone not an avowed conservative.

  22. “what am i missing here?” – Artfldgr

    What’s the size of the homeless population in California?

  23. I think the problem isn’t so much regulatory in this case as availability in bulk.
    It’s not as if most US and European hospitals will be keeping large stockpiles of the stuff, so production and distribution has be be ramped up before it can be made available in large enough quantities to be of much help.

  24. Here’s how Trump is cutting red tape and getting the private sector involved.
    A lot of our regulatory bottlenecks are due to lawsuits when something goes wrong, because we have the attitude that everything must be risk-free and if someone gets hurt then someone else must be at fault.
    I’m not suggesting there be no rules for health and safety, but I would like to quarantine the Plaintiffs’ Bar for a couple of months.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/19/president-trump-coronavirus-task-force-briefing-video/

    Q Okay. And on coronavirus: Speaking of shortages of supplies, the CDC has put out guidelines for hospitals that are dealing with a shortage of masks to use them beyond their shelf life, reuse them instead some getting new ones, and in a worst- case scenario, use a bandana instead of a mask. How is that acceptable at all?

    THE PRESIDENT: Well, I haven’t seen that, but I will let Mike answer that question. Vice President?

    THE VICE PRESIDENT: I’m happy to, Mr. President. I just — I can’t emphasize enough the incredible progress that was made with the passage of the legislation last night. And the President had me go to Minnesota and meet with 3M — that manufactures these N-95 masks — a few weeks ago. And we learned: Of their production at that facility of 35 million masks a month, less than 5 million of those were qualified to be sold to hospitals.

    So the President worked with Republican and Democrat leadership. We’ve extended the liability protection so now that all the industrial masks that are manufactured as N-95s are now available to hospitals, and we’re seeing a dramatic increase in production.

    Honeywell alone is repurposing a factory that was destined for Mexico to produce another 120 million masks per year. 3M is increasing output to 420 million masks per year. We really — we’ve put a priority, at the President’s direction, on making sure those that are providing healthcare services to America have the protection to keep themselves and their families safe.

    And with the legislation last night; with the incredible response among these great private sector companies; and, as we mentioned repeatedly, with construction companies around America heeding the President’s call to donate their industrial masks to hospitals — it’s happening all over America — we know we’ll meet that need.

  25. The liability changes are a follow-on from this legislation that Trump pushed for earlier, and I remember thinking at the time that is was one of those obvious solutions that no professional politician ever thought of enacting, because they aren’t really interested in the people they ostensibly represent.

    The FDA has also approved compassionate use for a significant number of patients. You know what that means. We’re also reviewing drugs that are approved abroad or drugs approved here for other uses.

    And, you know, one of the things that I’m most proud of that I got was Right to Try. That’s where somebody who’s ill, somebody who’s very sick — terminally ill, usually. In past administrations — we signed this a year and a half ago — you wouldn’t be able to even think about getting any of the drugs that may be showing great promise. Now — and they’ve been trying for many decades to get this approved and it sounds simple, but it’s not because there’s liability involved and lots of other things. And I was able to get it approved, working with Congress. Right to Try.

    This is beyond Right to Try. What we’re talking about today is beyond Right to Try. Right to Try has been, by the way, a tremendous success. People are living now that had no chance of living, where we take treatments that would — things that — that would have to go through years of a process. And if somebody was terminally ill — and I would say, “Why wouldn’t they be able to try this?” They’d go to Asia, they’d go to Europe, they’d go all over the world to try and find something. Or some people, if they had no money, would go home to die. They’d go home to die; they had no hope.

    Right to Try has been an incredible success.

  26. A few weeks ago, fearing shortages and general pandemonium, my doc stocked me up with a 6 month supply of hydroxychloroquine, I take it for an auto immune disease.

    As far as short term side effects, there are none that I can detect. But I have to get my eyes checked every 6 months, a bad long term side effect is the possibility pigment may build up in the retina causing blindness.

    I wonder if taking the drug will give me an edge if I get the Coronavirus. If so, that will be a first for me!

  28. i just dont see how to get there from here (and less so given fear and people locking themselves down)…

    And yet, when it doesn’t happen, Newsome will claim credit.

  29. Thanks, Artfldgr for you analysis. Morning update: about 14,000 active cases and the fit is still within 1 sigma of an exponential curve. Interestingly, the number of serious cases is stuck at 64 for the last 3 days. So, 0.045%, or 4.5×10^-3, of all the cases are deemed serious! That’s a ridiculously low percentage!

    Here’s a great read from a Stanford epidemiologist: https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanford-epidemiologist-warns-that-coronavirus-crackdown-is-based-on-bad-data/
    Best takeaway: suppose we didn’t know the virus existed, but it was out there, what would be our conclusion? That it’s just a slightly worse than normal flu season. And that justifies destroying the economy and Newsome basically declaring martial law in CA? I assume the other D governors will follow suit.

    I’ve been trying to avoid this, but a commenter to the above article, said, and now I have to start thinking this also: ” It’s a DNC/PRC operation to destroy the U.S. economy in attempt to cause Trump not to get elected in November, complete with the usual undermining and seditious, traitorous globalists and Obama holdovers in CDC and other key agencies and position, backed by the fake news.”

  30. Thank you Art. As a southern Californian who works alone in my office I will be going in today because I believe in science and math. I’ve been following that coronavirus worldmeter sferr linked to last week and 95 percent of the presently active cases are deemed mild, in other words a cold. I copied and pasted the historical chart of flu and coronavirus contributed by another commenter and now Art’s mathematical analysis of our law-breaching governor (sanctuary state/same sex marriage while mayor of SF). For me and my immediate family fear of the virus has never been our problem as we have already practiced all the hygienic good sense and always considered the vulnerable if we had any kind of affliction. What we have and do struggle with is anger at our societal/civic response to this “threat”. I’m a born pessimist and am known for being able to jump to a worse case scenario in any given circumstance and usually say “I hope I’m wrong”, well regarding this, I hope I’m right.

  31. AesopFan: What’s the size of the homeless population in California?

    60,000 to 80,000

    And they are not the kind to go to the hospital to get treatment when they get stuffy (i was homeless once). they tend to feel so miserable and have problems worse all the time that they dont bother. they also dont closely associate with the rest of the population. so this is not really going to have much bearing on things, despite what people think about the homeless being desease vectors. (historically have they been? not really)

  32. Thanks everyone for the kind words… i really needed the happy..

    To be clear, my ‘analysis’ was not half as good as what physics guy does… its more back of the envelope get a natural feel for the numbers kind of thing… it lacks a whole lot of nuance and stuff (that i am sure physics guy realizes).. like the fact that the numbers wont end up evenly distributed day to day, but would have to climb from the current low to the high…

    however, i was also trying to make the feel for the numbers more accessible to their impossibility. dividing the total up by the number of days reveals that for each day that the number doesnt hit 250k a day, the rest of the days numbers would have to go even higher to catch up…

    in california, its not possible…
    even if everyone went back to work normally
    its way too spread out, the population outside of the large cities just isnt crowded enough and social enough to have the disease spread that fast in that short a time

    will the public be smart enough and realize that this is economic warfare?
    that the left was and is willing to cripple America and leave it vulnerable to external acts? we do not exist in a vacuum!! which is why a civil war now would be completely different than back in the 1800s… external actors could respond in hours when back then it would have taken over a year just to get the response going and get material moving (if not prepared for it already).

    It is even sadder that if this doesnt do the capitalist system in, and usher in a communist control the people with rations kind of thing (ration med, ration salary, ration supplies, ration living space), they will just do it again before we recover…

    The Trillion dollar virus…

  35. I stocked up on tonic water yesterday as a prophylactic. The ingredients list says it includes quinine.

    Someone please poke a hole in my estimate:

    According to the Centers of Disease Control (CDC) the number of deaths in America due to Influenza since 2010 is 12,000-61,000 annually. COVID-19 deaths are currently at 217. Of course, CV has not run its course. There are currently 14,029 active cases, growing daily, mostly in New York, the rat-infested place it is.

    By comparison South Korea is handling the epidemic well. The ratio of total deaths to total closed cases is 4.47%. Let’s say that everyone in America becomes infected, all 330 million of us. One day each of those cases will close and result in either death or recovery. 4.47% of 330 million is 1.475 million deaths in America. That’s extreme.

    Let’s look at another statistic from the COVID-19 data. In South Korea the total cases per 1 million population is 169. (America is currently at 43). Let’s use that figure. So the estimated total number of cases in America would be 169 / 1M * 330M = 55,770 cases. Now let’s estimate the number of deaths based on the death rate in South Korea: 4.47% of 55,770 is 2,493 deaths. Currently America is at 217 deaths. South Korea is an open, democratically-elected country. I have no reason to doubt the veracity of the numbers they report.

    So if my math is right, and America’s numbers shape up similar to South Korea’s then we can expect 2,493 deaths, give or take. Compare 2,493 estimated deaths due to COVID-19 to the measured annual deaths of 12,000-61,000 for run-of-the-mill Influenza in America.

    Do you think that maybe we are over reacting a bit? Is it worth driving the country into recession? Perhaps that was part of the plan.

  36. Is chloroquine manufactured in the U.S. or must it come from China?

    That is the BIG question.

  37. “Do you think that maybe we are over reacting a bit? Is it worth driving the country into recession? Perhaps that was part of the plan.”

    I’m slowly coming around to that idea also especially given Newsome’s actions based on obviously absurd numbers as shown quite clearly by Art. And we all know he and California are at the forefront of the orangemanbad movement. So anyone owe Griffin an apology??

    Oh and here is the link to the full article by the Stanford scientist, rather than a synopsis that I linked to earlier: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

  38. Hangtown Bob, an Israeli pharma has already announced they’re sending multiple millions of doses of hydroxychloroquine to the US. Dunno about domestic manufacture.

  39. I was out shopping at Costco and Wal-Mart and Trader Joe’s yesterday. Silicon valley.
    Few out of stock items. Eggs only at tj, and very limited cleaning supplies. Everything calm.
    But I woke up this morning thinking about all those closed stores we passed, and the word “looting” swirled in my head.

  40. Artfldgr : Are you really surprised that a Democratic politician can’t do basic math ?

  41. Just a thought…

    Is this now the new modus operandi of the Democrat Party whenever a Republican president is in office: shut down the economy and cause a recession? But when democrats are in control, shrug a new crisis off with the help from agents in the media. Maybe I am just being cynical.

    I think it was Neo who wrote eloquently about the topic of risk aversion in today’s America. Back in the mid 20th century it was not uncommon for families to have five children. That was my wife’s case. She and four brothers. One died young from childhood diabetes. Another was killed at 19yo by a drunken driver. Her remaining two brothers went on to have children, two each, a total of four kids. My wife and I were unable to have children. So my wife’s parents raised five kids but ended with only two who produced grandchildren. This is replacement rate! This does not bode well for a growing, thriving America. Now look at what today’s adults do. They either never marry or have one child maybe two. I hate to say it but they are going to lose some kids along the way. To my mind this is a recipe for disaster in the long run.

  42. Brian Morgan gets the kewpie doll…

    since the beginning i have known what you just computed…
    problem is that the average person is so good and so trusting, they can be whipped into a frenzy on appearances, and be the weapon that destroys themselves.

    economic warfare.. what does it look like?
    no one has even attempted to just entertain that question for a moment

    regular classic war is easy… you have people in costumes, you have explosives, you have holes in things… you have bodies…

    but you have none of that in terms of an economic strike..
    all the economic crippling of classic war, without the damage

    damage is how we assess we are being attacked or harmed
    but if such damage appears to be from some random thing and we do it to ourselves, how do we assess that we have been victims?

    gaslighting the American public into destroying themselves from the goodness of their own hearts is quite diabolical… but its the same thing with feminism, and racialism, and all that… but those are death by a thousand cuts and slow extermination of lineages without children… This is akin to the coupe de grace, but without the concept of mercy.

    This is beyond the president election… I dont know if the dems/left understand what they are doing to themselves, as they too are ‘too focused on whats in front of them’ that they have lost situational awareness of the predicament they are putting themselves in not just everyone else.

    [the lack of children brian, is what feminism does… it causes population collapse… its a “social weapon” more deadly than german ovens… you see, you trick the people into self exterminating, they have no one to blame… and you use women, they will defend stupid till the very end without regrets as that would require them admitting they were played and played precisely because of how different they are, which they would and can not accept given ideological programming. a country without children cant maintain anything, and will even lose in a combat situation because there is nothing to believe in to fight for – this topic is verboten and unacceptable… so its not happening… until it over… its like imagining all the smells of the german ovens as happy barbecue and never facing what they really are]

  43. Is chloroquine manufactured in the U.S. or must it come from China?

    US supplier announced ramping up production last night..
    public traded company… i would suspect is up today in the market despite everything else, but didn’t look… i lost too much to even watch…

  45. Gov. Cuomo is back on television. This is my State and I am ashamed that 75% of today’s new cases in America come from New York. It’s only 12 noon. 2,265 new cases in America. 1,735 of those come from New York. What’s going on Gov. Cuomo? After Cuomo we will hear from Mayor DeBlasio of New York City. All that man can do is blame Trump. Shameful.

  46. Fauci now says he supports Newsome’s actions….I’m trusting that guy less and less, and so should Trump.

  47. While I believe it is true that these uses of chloroquine and the hydroxy version are off-label, I’ve seen doctors from the greater NYC area who are currently using them for coronavirus and literally scoff about using them off-label. We don’t need no steenkeen permissions!

    I couldn’t believe Newsome was claiming that there will be 25M infections. Those Dems are so smart they can predict the future! Always promoting a state of fear.

    VP Pence just said that “we’re making more and more tests available every day.” Gee thanks. Is that 10 more every day? The Whitehouse briefings are degenerating into a lot of happy horse sh_t.

    As AKH said, Bayer corp. provided millions of chloroquine (or variant) tablets for free. They are a German firm, so maybe they’re not dumb enough to source most products out of China.

  49. If it – the corona virus – is a PRC operation, however it arose, that would also explain the way that members of the Senate Intel Committee got their info to early sell stocks and other things ahead of the financial panic and government shut-down of the economy. Senator Feinstein, for one, had a Chinese communist agent as her driver for 20 years … makes a suspicious and cynical old Army sergeant wonder.

  50. By the way, there isn’t enough tests to get to newsomes number..
    IE… no state can do 250k tests a day…

  51. Ike: “Senator Feinstein, for one, had a Chinese communist agent as her driver for 20 years”

    Good point, Ike

  52. “Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro”

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0

    This paper was published on 18 March, 2020 in the journal “Cell Discovery.”

    A few things worth noting:

    1. Although this is a scientific paper, most of it can be understood by non-specialists.

    2. If you want your doctor to prescribe something, hydroxychloroquine sulfate is less toxic than chloroquine, and it appears to be effective. I didn’t know about the toxicity differences.

    3. This is an experimental paper, not a public health survey with attendant mathematical models. (Of course, both approaches have limits, both have value.) This in-vitro study was done on African green monkey kidney cells. I have no idea why those were thought to be a good human analog.

  54. As elites, most doctors (especially primary care doctors) are rabid anti-Trumpers. They will steadfastly refuse to administer the off-label drug chloroquine and wrap themselves in the cover of the notoriously slow-to-act FDA. Doctors would rather have patients, specifically patients who look like they could have voted for Trump, suffer and die, which in turn makes Trump look bad, rather than try to treat them.

  55. The Wall Street Journal reported how Iranian officials traced “the origins of the country’s coronavirus epidemic” in the holy city of Qom to “a number of Chinese-backed infrastructure projects built by scores of workers and technicians from China.”

    ==============================

    “Many Italians in Northern Italy have sold their leather goods and textiles companies to China,” writes David Vance. “Italy then allowed 100,000 Chinese workers from Wuhan and Wenzhou to move to Italy to work in these factories, with direct flights between Wuhan and Northern Italy. This continued post outbreak, so is it mere coincidence that Northern Italy is now Europe’s hotspot for Corona Virus?”

  56. The Best-Case Outcome for the Coronavirus, and the Worst

    Here’s the grimmest version of life a year from now: More than two million Americans have died from the new coronavirus, almost all mourned without funerals. Countless others have died because hospitals are too overwhelmed to deal adequately with heart attacks, asthma and diabetic crises. The economy has cratered into a depression, for fiscal and monetary policy are ineffective when people fear going out, businesses are closed and tens of millions of people are unemployed. A vaccine still seems far off, immunity among those who have recovered proves fleeting and the coronavirus has joined the seasonal flu as a recurring peril.

    of course they lead with that…

    and

    an alternative scenario for March 2021: Life largely returned to normal by the late summer of 2020, and the economy has rebounded strongly. The United States used a sharp, short shock in the spring of 2020 to break the cycle of transmission; warm weather then reduced new infections and provided a summer respite for the Northern Hemisphere. By the second wave in the fall, mutations had attenuated the coronavirus, many people were immune and drugs were shown effective in treating it and even in reducing infection. Thousands of Americans died, mostly octogenarians and nonagenarians and some with respiratory conditions, but by February 2021, vaccinations were introduced worldwide and the virus was conquered.

    the latter is much more likely to happen given actual numbers

    not to mention that in a happy ending, people realize the dems and left went bonkers and scared the crap out of them and did them so much damage that no one wants them anywhere near the levers of power again…

    there are no happy endings…

  58. It was only a matter of time before the real crisis was brought to the public’s attention:

    Vice: Most of You Are Concerrned About People Dying from the Chinese Flu, But Please Give a Thought to the Real Victims: Transgenders Who Are Having Their Elective Dick-Amputation Surgeries Delayed

    http://www.ace.mu.nu

  59. I was speaking to a friend (on the telephone) who is self-quarantining with her husband (thankfully both retired) as she has RA and lung conditions. I told her I think I had this virus in the 3rd week of January. She said her husband and adult daughters and grandchildren all got sick at that time and she, too, subsequently felt that it was likely this virus. She even shared a hotel room with the one daughter when her daughter came down with the symptoms. She said, amazingly, she never got it though exposed to so many. Yesterday she called me and was incredulous because it turns out she takes Hydroxychloroquine for her condition and at this point attributes the medication to the fact she never became ill. Anecdotal, of course. I am looking forward to when we have a test to detect the antibodies for this. I intend to see if indeed I had it.

  60. Brian Morgan:

    I assume it’s at least partly because of the uptick in testing. There is bound to be a period of time in which the number of diagnosed cases climbs precipitously. At this point in time, the rise in the number of severe/critical cases and/or deaths is a better measure of the rate of increase. That will be true until the testing becomes more standardized and everyone with COVID symptoms gets tested.

  61. It looks like the chloroquine may work by helping zinc stop the virus replicating in the body, per the video shared by ROPWA.

    Cold-eeze and tonic cocktails?

  62. A French “Non-randomized clinical study” using HCQ and Azithromycin.

    https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1240598258533138433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1240598258533138433&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Face.mu.nu%2F

    Note the graphs.

    Somewhere in the various tweet threads or the NY Post article is a discussion of the possible effect from the Azithromycin, which is an antibacterial. Basically it also reduces lung tissue inflammation which appears to reduce virus uptake.

  63. Governor Pritzker has recently made the residents of Illinois follow “shelter in place” starting this Saturday. So no proactive reaction is an overreaction, eh? Dear Leader will protect us all.

  64. Artfldgr: regarding this quote you published:

    “Many Italians in Northern Italy have sold their leather goods and textiles companies to China,” writes David Vance. “Italy then allowed 100,000 Chinese workers from Wuhan and Wenzhou to move to Italy to work in these factories, with direct flights between Wuhan and Northern Italy. This continued post outbreak, so is it mere coincidence that Northern Italy is now Europe’s hotspot for Corona Virus?”

    I wrote to a friend who would be knowledgeable. He agrees with it and adds “the Italian government signed up to the Chinese ‘one road – one belt’ program.”

    You can read more about that program here:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative

    A pull quote:
    “In March 2019, Italy became the first G7 Nation to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative”

  65. Hi Neo, yes I agree but I took the approach of using South Korea as a model: democratically-elected government having early-onset of cases with new cases now virtually zero given the size of its population. The shape of its “Daily new cases” curve is now the shape of a bell curve. America and many others are still in early phases with cases ramping up. My estimates are based on America following the South Korea model.

  66. thanks Brian.. most complain…
    you instead helped me learn more
    thanks!!!!!!!!!!

  67. Reuters and others are reporting that the U of Minnesota is testing to see if losartan, a generic blood-pressure medicine, might be effective against the Chinese virus. My doctor said losartan is prescribed only for mild hypertension (which mine was until this week!), so I’ve been taking if for a long time.

    I think I’ll go out and shake hands with people and hug them now!

  68. You don’t have to be a math genius to see these numbers just ain’t right. I used to do a lot of projections at work, and I know that if you multiply an assumption times an estimate times a likelihood, you get garbage. You’ve got to look at your projection and ask, is this reasonable? Does it make sense? Gavin, your numbers do not make sense.

    Also, could someone explain why ordinary antibiotics don’t prevent death? Virtually every doctor I’ve seen on TV says that death of Chinese Virus patients is caused by pneumonia they get in their lungs which have been weakened by the virus. Wouldn’t the normal anti-pneumonia treatment prevent that?

  69. Richard Saunders:

    It’s my impression that although it’s sometimes pneumonia, it’s usually actually ARDS from COVID itself. See this.

  70. Pneumonia is a symptom, not a specific pathogen. It can be caused by a virus, or a bacteria, or both, in the case of opportunistic bacterial infections following on the weakening of lungs by a virus.

    If it’s viral pneumonia, which seems to be the case with the sudden crisis from COVID19, antibiotics aren’t effective. We need antivirals to protect the lungs.

  71. Well, here is an interesting story out today, about how the NIH itself had done a study– waaay back back in 2005–which investigated chloroquine, and the lab results demonstrated that chloroquine might have curative and/or prophylactic effects against corona viruses!!!

    Doesn’t anybody do any research these days?

    See https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/stunning-development-2005-us-nih-study-found-chloroquine-was-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-infection-so-why-is-dr-fauci-questioning-its-use-now/

  72. Doesn’t anybody do any research these days?

    the white house released all the paperwork for the AI people to go through to find such things… you can locate it on Kaggle..

    https://www.kaggle.com/allen-institute-for-ai/CORD-19-research-challenge

    In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the White House and a coalition of leading research groups have prepared the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19). CORD-19 is a resource of over 44,000 scholarly articles, including over 29,000 with full text, about COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, and related coronaviruses. This freely available dataset is provided to the global research community to apply recent advances in natural language processing and other AI techniques to generate new insights in support of the ongoing fight against this infectious disease. There is a growing urgency for these approaches because of the rapid acceleration in new coronavirus literature, making it difficult for the medical research community to keep up.

    AI can go through it…
    but no one is paying me and there is no reward being one in a hundred..
    its not worth the effort given how many have more time and have their bills paid while i am out of work and cant find anything (made worse by this corona crap)

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