Greater San Francisco shelters in place
At least.
Going out without reason is a misdemeanor, although it is allowed for grocery shopping, taking walks (as long as you stay 6 feet away from other people), and a host of other purposes, and many businesses are allowed to stay open (restaurants, for example, as long as they just do takeout). I’m not sure exactly what this adds to what was already in place except the prospect of enforcement. Most things may have closed already. You can read all the details at the link.
I haven’t seen what San Francisco will do with all the homeless. Enforcing these rules for them should be very interesting. Or do they get a pass?
One good thing, though, is that San Francisco already has drive-in testing facilities newly set up. Once the city gets a bead on how many people are infected, perhaps some of this will be relaxed. Perhaps. Right now, there are “at least” 272 confirmed cases in the Bay area.
And yes, these development are extremely disturbing on many many levels.
These sorts of decisions will be a city-by-city thing – for now.
I haven’t seen what San Francisco will do with all the homeless. Enforcing these rules for them should be very interesting. Or do they get a pass?
I would be very surprised if the homeless DON’T get a pass. Unless they happen to say they are Trump supporters. 🙂
“I haven’t seen what San Francisco will do with all the homeless. Enforcing these rules for them should be very interesting. Or do they get a pass?” Neo
My husband and I were just talking about that here in Los Angeles. We think the restaurants want to close up and only do take-out to avoid having homeless come in and put workers at risk. Ralphs grocery store just adjusted their hours 8 to 8. Apparently some markets are allowing the elderly to come in the first 2 hours. Interesting times.
Well what they are going to need is some cultural diversity, you know like those virtue police that the Taliban and Saudi’s use.
Only this time it’s the Wuhan police armed with six foot long cane to encourage correct spacing of individuals. No one allowed on in public without a N95 mask (almost like a burka, but even more progressive, it applies to all). May have to require nitrile or latex gloves for all, at all times, and everywhere. And of course the regulations that will probably change daily if not hourly; it is after all for the good of the people. Can’t be too careful.
Doesn’t San Francisco not prosecute petty theft and shoplifting? So you just say you are going out to steal some groceries (redistribute them)? But don’t bunch up (timeless advice to soldiers applied to civilians in this situation)?
In Illinois our Governor has ordered all restaurants to be closed to seating patrons. Drive-thru and curbside services remain open.
We’ve set up our slide projector and are gonna go through one carousel a night. Kudos to Kodak as it is still working. We can’t remember the last time we used it. Maybe just after the youngest finished middle school. 23? Years ago?
S.W.M.B.O. says we’re to treat this like an extensive camping trip but with better showers and a comfortable mattress. 🙂
Seven Bay Area counties are issuing basically the same order. News reports only give a summary: to understand what it means it really helps to read the actual order. Here is the Santa Clara County version: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Documents/03-16-20-Health-Officer-Order-to-Shelter-in-Place.pdf
Section 2 says (as I summarize) that homeless people, not having residence to shelter in, are essentially exempt.
If only Nancy had been home….
This is becoming a crazy shit-storm, what the hell? Let us old folks, like me in my mid 70’s, hunker down but what the the hell? Why bring the entire economy to a standstill when this stuff does not seem to be fatal to those under 50 and just a bad cold for the younger kids. I have been through some of the bad times and was shot out of the saddle a couple times with economic reverses but with the exception of 9-11 when the GDP lost maybe 15% in one day I have never seen this kind of stuff. By the way the 9-11 ending up, finally, with me losing my business and declaring bankruptcy and have to rebuild once more at an older age, which we, my wife and I, did.
I am not ready at an old old to die from some goofy Kung Fu Flu but I also am concerned about the over reaction to protect all ages from this stuff. My heart goes out to those who are working in kitchens and waiting tables, running cash registers and being retail store clerk for small businesses who have just been able to keep themselves in business.
As the economy starts to slow down there will be all sorts of warehouse, drivers and other support people who might not be able to meet their minimal expenses every month and I dread the case where the government has to come in and bail them all out. Were I one of these people I would welcome that of course but we have seen over the years what happens to those who have to depend on their government money to make ends meet.
I was pleased two days ago with some of the Federal help that was supposed to be coming to keep this shit from becoming a total population wild fire but now I am not so sure. Why not let younger people who do not interact with us old fossils go out and have fun it they are not likely to get sick enough to require hospital care which was the impression I had a few days ago.
When I was in the Army over 50 years ago and thing would get real confused and pardon the words here for the expression we would use, “Who/what, the hell, caused this group-stoup and cluster fu*k? ” And, now what do we do to fix it?”
This is all beyond my pay grade.
A dry run for the next time we have a Dem President?
Shelter in place while heavily armed teams go from door to door … removing guns, Republicans, gasoline burning cars …
This IS rather breath taking.
Today I was listening to our Gov. Cuomo speak about all of the wonderful restrictions he’s putting in place. I couldn’t help but think that we are one step from Martial Law.
JimNorCal,
Yep, learning lots of lessons for the Climate Change National Emergency and the Gun Violence National Emergency.
In many areas we really are living in an authoritarian society. Government approved businesses government approved activities.
Stunned by how little questioning of some of this.
Sheep.
Just heard thru the rumor mill that one of the Covid 19 cases in Tyler Tx has died. Relatively young person. More at the hospital. Texas may be about to become one of the so called hot spots.
I wish they would close the border.
Bureaucrats are the problem when confronting a national threat of any kind. And, it’s not just the federal bureaucracy, it is true on a state and local level. Bureaucrats have one goal: expand the bureaucracy and become more powerful. Who needs elections when the bureaucracy is all powerful.
Jon Baker — Close the border? Are you some kind of cave man? This is the new one-world order. Where we all hold hands and sing Kumbaya. Where Michelle tells us how proud she is of America now that her husband has been elected. Where Biden promises not to deport illegal aliens — oops, make that illegal people — for the first 100 days even if they’re felons. Welcome to the new world (dis)order: the dystopian states of America.
As of tonight, here in the entirety of County of Los Angeles, restaurants must be closed except for takeout and delivery services. Schools are closed. Many businesses have instructed their employees here to work from home. I understand all this is the same as many other places in the USA.
Essentially, we will be obstructing the infection pathways for many diseases, including colds and flu. This should be a health benefit all the way around.
On the other hand, our supply chains – including our totally domestic supply chains – have been disrupted. This potentially could be catastrophic to our health, too.
People on the right rail against the claims made by climate scientists and all their ‘models’ and complain about being governed by so-called ‘experts’ and now we are handing over our society to a different set of models and experts.
Why do so many unflinchingly believe these models and experts?
Again, I’m not saying do nothing and I was somewhat ok with what they were doing until the last couple days. But the SF situation is damn scary. As Brian Morgan said above it sure looks like martial law is coming.
Excuse me sir do you have your permission slip to be outside?
So I hear that humanity has a zombie apocalypse panic reaction going on. What’s that about?
But the SF situation is damn scary. As Brian Morgan said above it sure looks like martial law is coming.
As I mentioned elsewhere, the Cabal/Deep State are pushing as many doomsday buttons as they can get, to farm the fear from their human livestock living in the Matrix.
The elites may or may not be dying, but Microsoft’s Gate resigned and is likely to be going to some underground bunker to survive this issue. Meanwhile, others will be preparing some magical “mandatory vaccine”, which is what others may consider the Mark of the Beast.
Why bring the entire economy to a standstill when this stuff does not seem to be fatal to those under 50 and just a bad cold for the younger kids.
Ever hear of insider trading? If I could accurately predict that when stocks hit all time high time, that in less than one month, it would crash to below -30%… don’t you think, that would be very easy to transfer wealth using fear?
They do this stuff all the time with penny stocks. During the Great Depression, the current financial system saw the greatest growth in millionaires compared to all of America’s history. Know how that works? Wealth redistribution. It is very easy to know how to use fear to control markets and commodities, if you control the fear itself.
This is all beyond my pay grade.
More than you may imagine.
The angels and archangels of YHVH are finally going to activate the Divine Plan. 2020 and 2021 will be more fun than any movie you have ever seen, combined.
Laura Ingraham just had someone on who said they are seeing positive results with Chloroquin. Anyone who has traveled in malaria areas know this as Aralen, and my family and I took it for the better part of 15 years to stave off malaria. (I wish I could say it worked — we all had malaria several times. Ugh.). Anyway, if chloroquin would act as a preventative for coronavirus, I’d happily take it again. Especially at my age, the side effects of that drug would be dramatically to be preferred over coronavirus.
In Ky and Oh all restaurants have been closed except for drive-thru and carry-out. Ohio has also closed all gyms, theaters and bowling alleys.
OH cancelled/delayed its primary election. A judge ruled against but the Gov defied him. Poll workers reporting to the Gov say they’re not ready. Interesting times…
I have said before that I am really befuddled–nothing new just a different excuse. As many have said, why not isolate we old folks, and others at risk, and try to keep the country running?
Well, my daughter, who is a medical professional, and Director of a department in a LA County owned hospital, is totally convinced that every measure taken is necessary; and still may be inadequate. She is getting briefed daily, and obviously believes that that the entire health care system is vulnerable to virtual collapse if the curve flattening, or mitigation, or whatever, is not successful. I have said that I fear for the economy; and that I fear that the power once grabbed by all levels of government will not be relinquished. Falls on deaf ears because of the existential risk.
Conservatives are not pushing back because there is simply no way that any lay person can know what is necessary, and what is too much. We do have our suspicions, but they can only be that; although ridiculous situations like that in SF do tend to confirm some. People who abide by the law are restricted; but, people who don’t–like the homeless who seem most likely to spread any pathogens–are not. Kind of like with gun control.
“Conservatives are not pushing back because there is simply no way that any lay person can know what is necessary, and what is too much. We do have our suspicions, but they can only be that; although ridiculous situations like that in SF do tend to confirm some. People who abide by the law are restricted; but, people who don’t–like the homeless who seem most likely to spread any pathogens–are not. Kind of like with gun control.” Oldflyer. So true.
I was just up in the East Bay, flew back yesterday (7 of us on the private commercial airline JSX). My DIL just sent me a screenshot of the latest Conta Costa directives. I just read Section 10. The overreach of this order is stunning. I guess we are going to be those frightened sheep that C.S. Lewis described in his 1948 essay.
TomR on March 16, 2020 at 8:58 pm said:
…
Section 2 says (as I summarize) that homeless people, not having residence to shelter in, are essentially exempt.
* * *
A comment I read somewhere (maybe even by one of Neo’s salon-dwellers) suggested that the shelter in place order is to protect the residential residents from the homeless as they wander around ravaged by the disease.
Kind of a Zombie Apocalypse scenario, but not too unbelievable any more, especially in California.
Apropos that concern about the homeless, there are some plans being made, but not very reassuring ones.
https://www.city-journal.org/homeless-coronavirus
Can the local government really shut things down just like that?
Why, yes – yes, they can.
https://reason.com/2020/03/16/can-the-government-just-close-my-favorite-bar/
Why do so many unflinchingly believe these models and experts?
Well, epidemiological models have a lot more real-world experience behind them than climate models do. There aren’t nearly as many parameters, and the science isn’t as chaotic.
The problem is GIGO — we don’t know what the R0, the incubation period, the contagious period, etc., are yet to any degree of certainty. So while I trust the models, I don’t necessarily trust the results and the recommendations pursuant to them.
Also, I think that after another month or so the cost to the economy and society will be bigger than the cost of lives lost.
CTH commenter Donzo gives a report from San Francisco.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/16/it-begins-san-francisco-initiates-forced-quarantine-of-all-residents-all-hours-effective-midnight/comment-page-4/#comment-7942376
“Greater San Francisco shelters in place” . . .
while Lesser San Francisco shelters out of place.
as of last nights last update of numbers
4,661 confirmed USA cases (asymptomatic is unknown and guessed at 80% meaning the above number is 20%)
85 total deaths… 1.8% of those sickest
IF you add in the assumptive 80% then only 0.4% who get infected die
we destroyed our economy and put elderly out on the street without retirements for that rate..
Outdoor activities are permitted, as long as they don’t involved close contact with others. So it’s fine for everyone in the Bay Area to go for walks, go to the beach or the woods, etc. I think they ought to be emphasizing this more — get outside into the fresh air as an antidote to cabin fever.
Here in Oregon the governor flip-flopped late yesterday and, after having declined to do so earlier, issued a decree of no dining or drinking in restaurants and bars. Interestingly, a major factor in her decision seems to have been an open letter urging such a step that was signed by over 100 prominent restaurant owners. And what seems to have motivated them was the fact that, without such a government decree, they could not claim coverage from their business insurance.
Update for this morning on what I posted yesterday regarding worldometer data.
This morning, 4577 US cases. When added to my excel graph yielded an exponential fit of cases = 60.717e^0.2651(days) which predicted about 5500 cases for today. i.e. the exponential fit is overcounting cases; at least for today. There will be random data variations on the order of SQRT(N), which here is SQRT(4577) = 67. The exponential fit is outside 1 standard deviation of the data, but not 2 sigma. It’s too early to say that the curve is flattening.
Serious cases: 12 for the entire country; a lot of empty ICU beds for two weeks into the exponential growth part of the curve.
The situation in SF is very concerning. The most progressive city in the country starts to look like a tyranny; not surprising I guess. Other places following suit like NY, CT, NJ, OH, etc. What really bothers me is that the administration doesn’t seem too concerned as our basic rights are being trampled underfoot, and the economy is heading towards total collapse. This is the first time in 3 1/2 years I’ve lost some confidence in the Trump administration. I keep saying it, the virus is not going to kill us, our reaction to it is what is going to do us in.
physicsguy your plotting the wrong thing, because cases are about to zoom even more, while the death rate is going to stay…. why? because now testing will start, and so we will start adding to the confirmed list the mild cases who would not have been known when you started your plotting..
the only actual number that is most valid is the number of deaths as they wont leave a body around and they wont leave it untested..
the other values are way off and will shift greatly with new tests… (which wont be 100% accurate either)
Color me skeptical when it comes to drive-thru diagnostic facilities. They ignore a certain part of the population, and those who are not ignored are concentrated around a drive-thru facility. Concentrating people who are suspected of infection is not a good thing, and even though they are in cars, they don’t stay in their cars so they increase the risk to others in the vicinity. Think gas stations, for example.
What we need are test kits that allow people to swab their mouth, then send the swab off to a testing facility. This has already been perfected for HIV screening, and it seems to work. One problem, of course, is that the results are not instantaneous. Neither are they with a drive-thru facility.
In any crisis one has to guard against the “do something right now” impulse and contemplate the unintended consequences of the first scheme that is suggested. This is no different.
There is hope with an antimalarial drug in use since 1945 in treating the symptoms and possibly acting as a prophylactic.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub
Restaurants are badly hit by this. Get some take-out today from your favorite place!
One can ONLY claim the “economic cost is too high” if …
one is willing to have an econ cost to save a life. $100k, $10 million, $1 billion.
How much?
No politician can get elected in answering that kind of question. And I’m not going to answer it either.
But these US precautions will save lives, relative to Italy, AND they have a big negative economic price. We will have reasonable estimates for the econ price, after it’s “over”. Most will use Italy or some other worst case OECD country as the worst case, which was prevented by the Maximum Prudent / Possibly Panic measures. There will be those who claim the econ cost was “too high”.
Their implicit cost per human life by the measures can be said to be “too low”.
Artfldgr, I agree that the total number of cases are going to increase rapidly with more testing and as the incubation period matures. Like you, I expect the death % to go down as cases go up. So yeah, you are correct in terms of actual epidemic accurate data.
However, the data I’m plotting is what the I suspect the governments are using in their decision making, so I’m trying to get a handle on what their decision making is all about. I also think it’s important not to mix data sources, so I’m going to use exclusively worldometer.
Tom,
I don’t think putting a cost per life is the right way to look at the economic impact. What I’m concerned with is a longer view of precipitating an economic collapse with an attendant social collapse. Are we setting in motion a runaway economic train wreck? What will be the costs in terms of human lives with shut down of basic services and the resulting riots? The “unintended consequences” are what I’m worried about.
And in the meantime, the State Dept. is still flying in refugees. Hard to take our government’s concern for the citizenry seriously, or the framework of their response to this “existential” threat:
Horowitz: As ordinary citizen life grinds to halt, government still flying in refugees from around the world
https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-ordinary-citizen-life-grinds-halt-government-still-flying-refugees-around-world/
Tom is asking the question that has no specific answer, not trolling but fixated possibly.
Society puts cost values on human life as a routine; consider safety or engineering standards applied to airplanes, automobiles, drugs, civil projects (bridges). Who decides when that cost value is too low or too high – courts and lawyers in the USA. Individuals also decide what level if risk they are willing to pay for, lately with a bit of nudging from the media.
Also consider that environmental cleanup standards put cost into the decision tree for what cleanup strategy (dig it up, fence it off, natural attenuation, etc.). Those decisions directly consider the cost when assessing human health consequences and the environmental effects on humans and non humans.
And of course Tom can consider the entire Obamacare “death panel’ controversy which is still with us, as is Ezekial Emanuel who of course recommends old people to just die.
I am with you on “unintended consequences” Physicsguy.
There is still one very large unknown, and that is the effect that less draconian, but prudent, precautions would have produced. That option has expired. Unfortunately, in the climate that surrounds this situation no politician is going to risk the backlash. This is certain even among the ones who are not motivated to move the populace to accept more government control. Bye the bye, it seems that Trump’s federal government has imposed significantly less severe domestic controls than have progressive local and state governments.
F,
A patient at the Nebraska quarantine stated that they swabbed him deeply in both nostrils and far back in the mouth, in the throat region.
In S. Korea, the actual test processing time was 6 hours, and the drive-thru clients got their results in 24 hours.
AesopFan’s City Journal piece on the homeless was informative.
Italy actual does have “death panels” – doctors who have one ventilator and two patients who need it, or else will die. Doctors or other decision makers decide who does get it, and thus who dies.
Avoiding rationed medical care is what the draconian precautions are all about. Because Italy, one of the most developed countries in the world, is faced with medical care being overwhelmed, no other democracy can electorally risk that.
Or can they? in UK, other Northern Countries? We’ll see. Reps in America certainly can NOT afford to do “too little”, therefore they hardly have any limits against “too much”. So they almost certainly will do “too much”, and Trump will be blamed for that, too, but only after the crisis is over.
“Are we setting in motion a runaway economic train wreck? “
This is a great question, with the most likely answer NO. The stock market was “too high” – so high Buffett was saving cash and not investing, so unless it drops to below its 2016 low, it’s not a stock market/ wealth disaster, tho it will be a roller coaster (volatility!) for some while. Selling on high bounces, and buying on low bounces, will allow lots of traders to make money, which will also smooth the markets some.
There will be loses, and big loses, and many firms that go bankrupt which would not have gone bankrupt this year except for this crisis. Especially highly efficient Just-In-Time manufacturers which are dependent on some part that can’t now be bought or easily made, perhaps from China.
Lost, actually non-created GDP cannot really be “made up”.
Expect a real recession.
The Fed is lowering interest rates, so banks will be able to make loans.
The Trump big-spending gov’t will send money to poor folks so they won’t be starving; also a lot to (favored?) Small Businesses.
Most honest economists are likely to say, in a few quarters, “the recession was minimized by the gov’t actions”. Most won’t mention the tariffs on China imports, but they helped focus attention on getting alternatives. Trump right, most economists (who claim support for Free Trade) wrong.
Those businesses which have already expanded in America will likely find a lot more demand (=buyers) for their products. NOT bars & restaurants, tho. 🙁
Once the crisis is over, there will be many sectors of growth, especially in providing more medical supplies. Probably not TP; TP makers are now and for a couple more weeks will be supplying store shortages, followed in a month or so by far less-than-normal buying so then there will be unsold inventory. Much higher work-from-home, college courses off-line, might well be the new, improved “normal”.
So, as long a Rep is the President, pushing more flexible, private solutions, the economy will most rapidly adjust, including adjusting in a couple of weeks to a less draconian but still “highly prudent” set of work rules.
Will the psyches of people be more upset at gov’t control, or more upset at the ‘danger’ and willing to give up more power to the gov’t to be more ‘safe’? I’d guess the latter, but that’s a fear and a problem no matter what the gov’t response. If the gov’t does too much now, it’s a bit more likely more folk will be upset at too much gov’t, rather than not enough.
Tom discovers triage, dire times make for tragic decisions. Socialized medicine in Italy and the HHS may turn out to be a bad thing. Open borders has proved to be a bad idea, inconceivable. There will be economic consequences, well yeah.
There is no objective measure of “too little” or “too much” when the main goal of the media is to ensure that President Trump and republicans are not elected in November. Spending an infinite amount of money is not an option.
What is the situation in Slovenia and central Europe? That is a perspective we don’t have here.
“There is no objective measure of “too little” or “too much” when the main goal of the media is to ensure that President Trump and republicans are not elected in November. Spending an infinite amount of money is not an option.” Om
This. Except I would add, especially when that “too little” or “too much” has been required by the hard-working, law-abiding citizenry of this Republic.
All those who are bitching about the suggested measures to mitigate the coronavirus should go to this link:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
The page presents four scenarios in a simulation of how the virus spreads:
1. Everyone has freedom to interact with anyone.
2. There are whole regions of quarantined people.
3. There is moderate “social distancing”.
4. There is much “social distancing”.
There is MUCH better prevention of the virus with MUCH “SOCIAL DISTANCING”.
Tom:
My apologies, make that your perspective from the Slovak Republic, since you aren’t in Slovenia.
F:
Drive through testing has been going on in South Korea for quite a while with seeming success.
Concentrating people who are suspected of infection is not a good thing, and even though they are in cars, they don’t stay in their cars so they increase the risk to others in the vicinity. Think gas stations, for example.
ever drive behind a car and smell their cigarette/pot smoke?
Realize that most of that was at one point in their lungs..
and drafting from the car in front of you is not a danger these docs are much aware of… someone needs a paper and a study, etc… but common sense isnt enough for them to think of it till AFTER its obvious…
as i mention before.
it always amazed me how this cossetted class wears the colored goggles (not glasses) that insures they see the world as they are told to see the world, almost no matter how inane that may be… [i could give dozens of examples in which it required a paper to change the goggle tints so they could see what before they couldnt see or believe!!!]
Tom Grey on costs..
yeah… old folk having to eat catfood and live in roach invested nycha housing cause this destroys their lifetime savings and investments is ok…
its just not immediate enough to be counted…
Tom Grey on finance:
so unless it drops to below its 2016 low, it’s not a stock market/ wealth disaster, tho it will be a roller coaster (volatility!) for some while.
so your ok that we lose four years of GDP growth? who is the arbiter of saying things are too high? buffet wasnt saying it was too high… he was saying it was too high for him to invest.. totally different thing… and more so since he didnt have his friend obama in the white house helping him cheat as he did with keystone and bnsf rail…
right now… there are people who live off their investments in old age..
they wont have time to recover and you will have to pay for them
I may even end up one of them now that 15 years of my effort has been denuded by 70% and not even in my hands to prevent… (401b from work)
if you knew more about what you talked about you would say other things.
Here is a eye opening article, though not terribly surprising.
A Generational War Is Brewing Over Coronavirus (no paywall)
Coronavirus = BoomerRemover? Ah, the carefree under 30 crowd.
@ Sharon,
Who ever said the State Department was on “our” side. Certainly not you, certainly not me.
The Cost of a Human Life, Statistically Speaking
TL;DR: between $7-9 million, according to the OMB when evaluating new regulations, etc.
Let’s round up and say $10 million. So every hundred deaths is “worth” $1 billion. If the economic consequences of restrictions and lockdowns are greater than that, we overreacted. (And I don’t think we should count stock market losses until the epidemic is over and it’s re-stabilized.)