More on November, 2020
The near-certainty that the Democratic nominee will be Biden raises the specter of the Democrats coming back and picking up where Obama left off, only worse. We dodged that bullet in 2016. But the question has always been whether that was only a little blip on the long Gramscian march and the Democrats’ hope for permanent takeover of the American electorate. Simply put: will the US inexorably move further and further left?
Biden’s supposed “moderation” is only such compared to Bernie. And I doubt that a single one of my Democrat friends (who are quite typical, politically, of much of the Democratic electorate) would hesitate to vote for either Biden or Sanders or any other sentient (or semi-sentient) being if that person becomes the Democratic nominee. They hate Trump with a white hot passion.
Biden’s running mate will probably be a woman, someone like Klobuchar or Kamala Harris (remember her?). Someone female and young, preferably ethnic although Biden really doesn’t need that since he already has the black vote pretty well sewn up because of his Obama connection.
I believe Biden as president would be more a less a figurehead, and the people in charge would be the same people who were prominent in the Obama administration, doing the same things only more so because they feel the country is ready for more open leftism. The Deep State will really go to town, as well. Legislation, however, depends on who controls Congress. If it’s the Democrats, the sky’s the limit.
Biden may not get a majority of the votes at the Democratic convention, of course. But unless Bernie does, it will be Biden all the way, because the establishment will make certain of it. The “interesting” result to watch would be if Bernie goes into the convention with a plurality and not a majority, and then the party manages to award the nomination to Biden anyway. But at the moment, it seems to me far far more likely that Biden will get the plurality and then the Bernie supporters won’t have as much to complain about if Bernie doesn’t end up as the nominee.
They’ll complain anyway, of course. But who are they gonna vote for instead of Biden? Trump? Not likely. In fact, highly unlikely. Most of them will capitulate, I think, just as most of the PUMAs did in 2008.
Would I prefer Bernie to be the nominee instead of Biden? Yes and no. I am terrified of a Sanders presidency. But I’m also terrified of a Biden presidency. I think I’m slightly more afraid of a Sanders presidency than of a Biden presidency. But I also think if Sanders were the candidate he’d be less likely to win the election. So in the graph of fear they’re probably equal: Sanders less likely to win an election but more frightening if he does win, whereas Biden is a bit less frightening if he wins (only a tiny bit) but somewhat more likely to win.
How likely is the eventual nominee to win? That will only become clearer as we get closer to November.
I would argue that Sleepy Joe is now more likely to be the nominee, but only because the strategy of the DNC to sabotage Comrade Bernie (a more dangerous opponent for Trump) seems to be working; over time B.S. will continue to win delegates, but perhaps not enough to prevent a brokered (and chaotic) convention in July. Bernie’s supporters will not turn out strongly in November for a corrupt and senile Biden, who, despite almost certainly choosing a woman, probably black, as his VP, should prove no match for Trump.
It seems to me that Biden’s mental state is pretty visibly deteriorating, and that his so called “gaffs” are increasing in frequency, and becoming an almost daily occurrence (and perhaps there are actually a lot more of them, that the MSM very deliberately just doesn’t tell us about).
Again, I wonder why his wife (if today Joe remembers which one that is) doesn’t take Biden aside and say,” Joe, it’s time to get off the Merry go round, to relax, and to spend more time with me and the grand kids.”
Is it that he and/or she just wants this so bad that they’re willing to overlook this obvious deterioration—which—as far as I understand it, has only one descending trajectory and one ultimate destination?
Or, can’t they actually see the deterioration, and are just blinded to the reality?
Ask yourself these questions:
1. Do you know anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 that will not vote for him in 2020?
2. Do you know anyone who did not vote for him in 2016 that now says they will vote for him in 2020?
If the answer to the first question is no and the the answer to the second is yes, how does Trump lose in 2020? He won in 2016 without the votes of those who will vote for him this year even though they did not vote for him in 2016. For him to lose requires tens of millions of new voters voting for the Democrat’s candidate. They do not exist.
Trump at worst will carry the states which voted for him in 2016, and most of those that he lost narrowly. Those who hated him in 2016 are the same folks who voted against him then and will vote against him again. They were not enough of them to beat him 2016 and I have yet to meet anyone who hates him today that did not hate him then. At the same time I have met many who sat on their hands in 2016 who plan to vote for him today.
Seawriter:
Answer to question 1: dead people and suburban women
Also, you are ignoring voting fraud and more young people voting than last time. Swing states are still swinging.
Seawriter, you are forgetting a large number of MOTR LIV people who voted for Trump just because they did not want Hillary. I know of at least 10 in my family. I also know that they do not like Trump and would be amenable to vote for Biden. This group could possibly cancel out the new enthusiastic Trump supporters.
I know huxley will again accuse me of pessimism.
” I am terrified of a Sanders presidency. But I’m also terrified of a Biden presidency. . . . Sanders less likely to win an election but more frightening if he does win, whereas Biden is a bit less frightening if he wins (only a tiny bit) but somewhat more likely to win.”[Neo]
I agree with all of the above, however allow me to point out the fly in the ointment.
IMO a Sanders presidency and a Biden presidency lead to the same end; one just boils the frog more slowly. So why would a Biden presidency be any less fear inducing than a Sanders administration? Although I, too, do not believe that Sanders has any chance of winning a national election, I think Biden could (I believe that the Dems think so, too) and I do not want to see the gains of the Trump administration turned into a passing fancy.
In Pennsylvania, we do not have open primaries. Furthermore, I live in a deep blue enclave. So, in order for my vote to have any real effect (however miniscule) I must vote in the local Dem primary (thus my registration as a Dem). So I, a staunch and very long-time conservative, will be voting for Bernie Sanders in the PA primary. My son-in-law who appreciated political irony just howled when I told him that.
To those who ask if I am concerned that Sanders might win I respond that yes, I am concerned, but what is my alternative, to boil the frog more slowly instead? That is no good alternative. Let’s have it out. Let’s get the capitalist marketeer Trump to face off against the anachronistic Marxist Sanders and let the American voting public choose. Either deal a death-blow to unmasked Gramscian socialism and perhaps destroy the Democrat socialist party for a generation or, if I am wrong, let Bernie Sanders have his four years.
I fully expect that Sanders’ policies will have such an immediate and devastating effect on America that he would not be in office beyond four years and the rebuilding would begin then. IMO either this election or his administration would be a death blow to a century of the Gramscian march through the institutions.
I know, this sounds much like the “burn it down” school of thought in the 2012 election and may well be, but I offer that the time has come to stop pussyfooting around with regard to this socialist crap. Let’s defeat the myth for once and perhaps for all.
Also, slightly off topic and thanks to Maverick philosopher (https://maverickphilosopher.typepad.com/) a link to a very good list of books on the folly of socialism including F.A. Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, Robert Conquest and Rand Paul among others.
https://www.independent.org/issues/article.asp?id=13056
Neo, you ask:
“But the question has always been whether that was only a little blip on the long Gramscian march and the Democrats’ hope for permanent takeover of the American electorate. Simply put: will the US inexorably move further and further left?”
Mencius Moldbug is in error on various things, but I think you’d agree he got this part right: “Cthulhu may swim slowly. But he only swims left.”
https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2009/01/gentle-introduction-to-unqualified/
If he’s right about that, then the only question to be answered, in order to determine the fate of the U.S., is this: Does anything have the power to fight Cthulhu?
My answer to that is “He who sits in the heavens laughs; the LORD has them in derision. Then he will speak to them in his wrath, and terrify them in his fury.”
But he who waits upon the LORD, whether he renews his strength or not, sometimes finds himself waiting a long time. My hope is that He has chosen this decade, and not some different century, in which to “bare His holy arm.”
I think the Democrats know, that irrespective of who is their candidate, the only way they can win the White House and keep the House of Representatives in 2020 is through voter fraud. To do that on a grand scale requires that their Presidential candidate be “in on the game.” Joe Biden is already an insider, with dubious ethics, and would not squeal on them. Bernie Sanders, however, regardless of how much we might disagree with his ideology, is a fanatical ideologue. Because of his fervent faith in his policies, he would not condone cheating.
Neo saith:
Really? Don’t any of the things he has contributed to, such as record low unemployment figures for Black and Hispanics, or tempering foreign entanglements, or encouraging the return of at least some manufacturing and production to the United States mean anything to them?
What about the economic growth figures, which while not red hot were way better than the 1.8 that we were told we would have to live with forever.
What about overall life satisfaction levels among the American populace?
Now, I know that in the case of some commenters here, they have said that their kids – professionals – employed in law or government really and truly don’t care. Which, means that fundamentally they don’t give a damn about the working middle class in this country, and that they are ok with it being replaced with an imported serf-class, with the laws adjusted to make that happen.
As my pleasant mail lady said to me as were were discussing politics some years ago: ” ‘Freedom’? Haha Mel Gibson? ‘Freedom’? What that supposed to mean? Who cares?”
Her rice bowl was filled by a big organization so what did she care about those concerned to keep the greater realm of economic and life options open.
And I also know that that taken to a generalization sounds histrionic. And it sounded that way to me when it began to occur as an inescapable inference to me a dozen and more years ago. And it sounded extreme even when you cited that Democrat analyst suggesting that that attitude – to his chagrin – was rife in the Democrat party when Trump got elected. And it still sounds extreme when Tucker Carlson repeats the same conclusion.
But what else is there to conclude?
What is their issue? Do they even care where their food comes from, who makes the aircraft they fly in, or provides the weapons with which we defend the polity?
Do they even think about these things as they bathe in their volcanic malice?
DNW:
Not my job to answer for Neo, of course.
But in reply to your question, “Really? Don’t any of the things he has contributed to, such as record low unemployment figures for Black and Hispanics, or tempering foreign entanglements, or encouraging the return of at least some manufacturing and production to the United States mean anything to them?”
…I suspect the answer is:
– they deny that any such events have happened;
– and if they were presented with proof, they would deny that it meant what you claim it meant;
– and if you offered to prove that it meant what you claimed, they would say they didn’t have the time or inclination to discuss it further;
– and if you tied them down and made them listen to the proof, they’d come up with something else.
There is always a fallback position for defending a hallucinatory worldview, if you haven’t made the fundamental act of will required to confront whatever uncomfortable truth you may encounter.
@ R.C.
Yeah, I guess so. We’ve been on this carousel before. I just continue to have trouble believing so many people are like that. And unlike Neo, who admittedly has a different metaphysical framework than I do, I cannot believe that such fundamentally dishonest or calculatedly manipulative and self-serving people, are “basically good people”.
From my point of view there is virtue, and an expected, and forgivable falling short of fallible human nature in each human, without contradiction.
But not with the kind of ying yang mix of supposedly acceptable good and evil, or simultaneous ostensible transparency and conniving duplicity posited by some. That’s a game of who gets devoured last. It’s akin to trying to trust devils … beings which you KNOW ahead of time, will at some point smirk at, and probably be blithely complicit if not instrumental your destruction. The nature of that being, constitutes a kind of metaphysical monstrosity … if you take metaphysics at all seriously.
That kind of entity may be no worse than others of its kind. But it is without real virtue, or honor, or even an appreciation for the same. How can one call such beings, “fellows” without feeling yourself a damned fool?
DNW:
They think if anything good has happened under Trump, that it was just a delayed reaction to something Obama did, or that it was in spite of Trump rather than because of him.
But they think that Trump is: a rapist, a liar, corrupt, a racist, insane, in league with Russia, a homophobe, a xenophobe, a misogynist, out to curtail woman’s reproductive rights, a Nazi, a fascist, and just plain all-around evil. I probably left something out there, but you get the picture.
T on March 4, 2020 at 5:10 pm said:
” I am terrified of a Sanders presidency. But I’m also terrified of a Biden presidency. . . . Sanders less likely to win an election but more frightening if he does win, whereas Biden is a bit less frightening if he wins (only a tiny bit) but somewhat more likely to win.”[Neo]
I agree with all of the above, however allow me to point out the fly in the ointment….I fully expect that Sanders’ policies will have such an immediate and devastating effect on America that he would not be in office beyond four years and the rebuilding would begin then. IMO either this election or his administration would be a death blow to a century of the Gramscian march through the institutions.
* * *
I was going to say something pretty much along the same lines, and the same with some other commenters above.
IF Biden wins, the Deep State is back in business, and they (and he, when in his senses) are very accomplished at covering up perfidy, with the MSM to back their malfeasance. It will be Obama 2.0 and then some.
IF Bernie wins, he will be enough of a loose cannon to (a) go off the deep end and start doing things that bring the voters back to their senses, even if only momentarily (e.g., AB5 in California; or (b) refuse to “take advice” on how to camouflage the corruption (he isn’t an outsider at all, BTW, but he’s not on the true Inner Circle).
I don’t think he has any integrity, and will be happy condone cheating (sorry, Cap’n) and willing to go along with tanking the country by any means possible, so long as it is framed as achieving his fanatical ideological ends, but he may not have the social skills to hide the chicanery they are up to.
On the AB5 law:
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2020/03/03/is-it-possible-for-trump-to-flip-california-because-of-democrats-idiocy-over-thi-n2562851?utm_source=thdailypm&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_pm&newsletterad=&bcid=c516d6c9c54ff9490b6b8db0dcb77a00&recip=19890201
Trump is pushing the “let’s you and him” fight buttons as hard as he can, of course.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/trump-says-establishment-dems-came-together-to-crush-bernie-sanders/
Tulsi Gabbard actually has delegates, not that it will make any difference. For some reason, the Democrats don’t think she is a Woman of Color, and hence not a viable candidate. I would actually be more afraid of her as nominee or President, because she is smart and capable.
https://pjmedia.com/election/you-didnt-really-think-the-dnc-would-allow-tulsi-gabbard-into-a-debate-did-you/
Byron York describes the fault lines in the Democrat party very well; can they be papered over just to destroy Trump? He isn’t sure.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/calls-for-unity-cannot-hide-stark-cultural-differences-inside-democratic-party
On the “Biden is a moderate and safer than Bernie” claim — nope.
Not that we didn’t know that, but in case you want something to send your friends.
https://www.redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2020/03/04/reality-check-democratic-voters-did-not-reject-socialism-super-tuesday/
https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/03/04/stop-gaslighting-joe-biden-is-still-joe-biden/
https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/03/04/biden-is-not-a-moderate-hes-promising-to-raise-your-taxes-and-donald-trump-jr-has-a-few-things-to-say-about-that/
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-promises-illegal-immigrants-pathway-to-citizenship-after-super-tuesday-victories
He’s just not yet as far gone as Sanders has been for decades.
https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/03/04/horrible-check-bernie-plugged-fidels-cuba-american-hostage-havana/
Almost all the votes are counted. Refresh the page to get updated totals.
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/super-tuesday/
Gabbard is being totally ignored, but apparently she has not given up the race.
Take your pick of current speculations. She may be angling for the VP slot, but I think she does have ethical principles and would not condone cheating from the Deep State, so that’s a no-go. regardless of who the presidential candidate is.
https://www.newsweek.com/why-tulsi-gabbard-still-2020-presidential-race-after-better-polling-democrats-dropped-out-1490135
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/tulsi-gabbard-just-won-a-delegate-will-she-be-in-the-next-debate/ar-BB10I7Qk
https://www.foxnews.com/media/tulsi-gabbard-mike-bloomberg-2020-democratic-race
“It’s clear that the DNC would rather hear from Michael Bloomberg, a billionaire, rather than hearing from me — the only person of color left in this race, the first female combat veteran ever to run for president, and the voice that I bring from so many Americans that really challenges the establishment of the powerful elite.”
…
“And when you think about the candidate who can beat Donald Trump, that has to be a candidate who can attract support from across party lines. Just getting support from Democrats will not be enough. And this is why I am confident in my ability to win in November, to beat Trump, unify our country, heal these divides so that we can together move forward as a nation.”
Gabbard’s principles entail being a fangirl of Iran, Assad and the Russians, and an enemy of the Saudis, the Turks and the Israelis into the bargain. Thanks, but no thanks.
That many?
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/harvard-newspaper-survey-finds-1-of-faculty-members-identify-as-conservative
I bet they did – and I bet someone is trying to break the Code of Silence for the poll (although perhaps the three MAGA profs are already known).
“the question has always been whether that was only a little blip on the long Gramscian march and the Democrats’ hope for permanent takeover of the American electorate.”
There will be no “permanent takeover of the American electorate.”
“Simply put: will the US inexorably move further and further left?”
Not without a civil war it won’t and if that war takes place in the next 20 years… they will lose, badly. What increases the likelihood of a coming civil war is that most on the left imagine that “inalienable rights” do not exist and so may be ‘voted away’.
IMO, Seawriter and T have the right of it.
“I cannot believe that such fundamentally dishonest or calculatedly manipulative and self-serving people, are “basically good people”. DNW
It is by definition, impossible for “fundamentally dishonest” “calculatedly manipulative and self-serving people” to be a “basically good” person. The question is how many on the left can that description be validly applied to?
There’s no way to know of course, so by their actions may an assessment be made. Actions have consequences.
Seawriter: “Do you know anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 that will not vote for him in 2020?”
Yet, all the same, Dems made huge gains in ’18 and took the HoR
“Dems made huge gains in ’18 and took the HoR” [JimNorCal @ 9:38 pm
And it must be one of the Dems major nightmares that a Sanders’ candidacy does not have the coattails to carry Dem HoR reps to electoral victory, especially those from Trump leaning districts who were the reason the Dems re-captures the HoR.
I’m trying to come up with a list of obvious Trump attacks on Biden that Democrats and the media are now willfully ignoring.
1. Voted for the Iraq War.
2. Failed to bring troops home from Afghanistan.
3. Hunter and Ukraine.
4. Dementia.
5. Voted for the Clinton crime bill.
6. Vulnerable to claims he wants to cut Social Security.
7. Is a big supporter of “free trade” and thinks China is basically just swell.
8. Has called for ending cash bail system.
9. Says Beto “Damn right we’re taking your guns” O’Rourke will be his gun control guy.
Any others?
Mike
Wisdom from a commenter at AOSHQ on the Schumer Threatens Justices thread.
159 “Glenn Reynolds makes an excellent point about the DNC changing the rules to keep Gabbard out of the next debate: the optics would be horrific, with her next to that passel of geezers.
Posted by: Guy Smiley”
The N word. No, not that N word. This N word – Nepotism. That’s Biden’s Achilles heel. During his Vice Presidency his son, brothers, son-in-law and sister all cashed in. Senator Ron Johnson is doing a deep dive on Hunter’s activities in Ukraine and China. All that dirty laundry is going to be hung out during the campaign. Of course that sort of thing does not affect the Democrat vote, but it does affect the independents and urban women.
I fully expect the Biden campaign to resurrect as many Trump scandals as possible, but most will likely be already well-plowed ground. It’s a battle for the middle – the LIVs, the proudly independents, the college educated urban women. Those voters don’t like nepotism.
Also, it looks like a somewhat larger number of blacks and Latinos will vote for Trump this time around. Advantage Trump.
However, it’s not going to be a walkover for Trump even with such an obviously corrupt and mentally challenged opponent as Biden.
If by some chance Bernie does get the nomination, then I expect an easier path to re-election for President Trump because Bernie is too open about his intentions. Tax increases, open borders, and green energy are still tough sells.
Well, this is an interesting development. Based on a WaPo story.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/04/report-elizabeth-warren-in-negotiations-with-both-bernie-and-biden-campaigns/#more-185524
“If you can fake authenticity, you’ve got it made.”
She couldn’t even fake it.
https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/03/04/donald-trump-elizabeth-warren-very-selfish-for-not-endorsing-bernie-sanders/
Cap’n Rusty,
You believe Sanders is an honest broker and “won’t condone cheating?”
Bernie Sanders?!
Bernie Sanders?!
Just my $0.02: Sanders got his start in electoral politics organizing a campaign to eject Gordon Paquette and his camarilla from the Burlington City Hall. He’s an old guy whose sensibilities were formed prior to the takeover of the Democratic Party by Felonia von Pantsuit and her oleangenous husband. And was aloof from the Democratic Party from 196? to 2015. He likely is less tolerant of shenanigans.
Biden is a placeholder for Hillary. She will emerge from the Convention as the Candidate, probably with Castro as her running mate.
There is only one organized group in the Democratic Party and it is the Clinton Machine. My definition of a machine is a group capable of punishing and rewarding behavior, a group of like minded people who know each other and are in constant communication about current developments.
All it will take to knock out Biden when the time comes are a few articles in WAPO, LA Times, and the NYT about Hunter, China, dementia, etc. Within a week he will be history. They will blast him so thoroughly that this supporters will be reluctant to admit they ever knew him. They will be left totally leaderless.
IMO Trump will take the popular vote and both houses. The Boomer Democratic Party will be destroyed. Future historians will call this period the Trump Restoration.
Biden is a placeholder for Hillary. She will emerge from the Convention as the Candidate, probably with Castro as her running mate.
Only in the space between your ears. This is tiresome.
I’m wondering if it isn’t the case that Biden (and/or his wife Jill) just want to be President (and First Lady) so bad that he is quite willing to run to acquire the title, knowing that he is in decline, and will not be able to handle the substance of the job, and might—as he has already hinted—not even be able to fill out his first term in office.
Thus, is is key to see who he (or more likely the Party) chooses as his Vice President.
If, as I suspect, Biden will only be President in name only, and will only be “President” for a short period of time –it will be his VP, perhaps his wife, and the Party people behind Biden who will actually be running the country i.e. the Obama Administration redux.
Sen. Warren drops out. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/warren-to-drop-out-of-2020-race-setting-up-one-on-one-showdown-between-progressive-sanders-moderate-biden
Over to youz, JoeBernSanBidersden.
Sen. Warren drops out.
So you have two candidates of note. Unless Biden descends into a Robert Mueller like state in the next four months, there will be one ballot in Milwaukee.
A theory proposed by Rush Limbaugh to explain holding on to Joe despite the manifest flaws. Via a personal email:
“Rush thinks the dems figure to lose no matter the candidate. All they’re trying to do is avoid the fate of the Never Trumpers. They don’t want to lose their jobs, titles, money or power like the NT’s did.”
I submit this email I just received from Onward Together as one piece of evidence that Hillary is actively planning to be the Candidate:
Richard —
We’re just one day away from the premiere of the new documentary covering Hillary’s life from her early years through the 2016 election, and we want to know: Will you be watching “Hillary”?
The four-part documentary will be available to stream on Hulu beginning this Friday, March 6th. With behind-the-scenes footage from the 2016 campaign and brand-new interviews from Hillary and her friends and family, you won’t want to miss out.
Let us know that you’re planning a watch party — no matter how big or small! — and Hillary could call in to say hello and answer a few questions:
There is then a link to click to be added to the list that Hillary might call titled: I’m planning to watch
In her world things are busy busy busy, and appear to be going the way they are intended. Inside the Blue Bubble there is no doubt that Trump is so widely hated that anybody can beat him.
“He likely is less tolerant of shenanigans.” – Art Deco
Unless they benefit him.
“Rush thinks the dems figure to lose no matter the candidate. All they’re trying to do is avoid the fate of the Never Trumpers. They don’t want to lose their jobs, titles, money or power like the NT’s did.”
This.
I also think Biden only “won” because the democrats turned on the vote fraud machine a few months early to avoid the grim fate of having nominee Bernie Sanders openly praising communism- and condemning all the rest for not being open about that, too.
But it follows that having given up on defeating Trump they’ll work extra hard to win control of Congress.
Expect a lot of “misplaced” ballots to be discovered in car trunks, etc, while their media allies feverishly attack anyone who notices the blatant fraud.