Home » On coronavirus (COVID-19) so far [Part I]

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On coronavirus (COVID-19) so far [Part I] — 28 Comments

  1. WRT pneumonia count: I’ve lost two relations to aspirational pneumonia resulting from neurological issues. Parkinson’s was one cause. We may be an outlier.
    Question is whether this is in pneumonia count.

  2. There is a useful interview with Hugh Hewitt interviewing Peter Navarro, the Trump trade advisor.

    Well, let’s see – no plan, no urgency. We have a plan. We’ve been moving in Trump time, which is to say as quickly as possible, since January 29 when the President courageously pulled down those flights from China. Let me lay the plan out for you, Hugh. And it’s a four-pronged strategy that we have to deal with. The first thing is on the front lines, the personal protective equipment that we need to have for our health professionals, folks in nursing facilities, things like that. What are that? That’s the gloves, that’s the goggles, that’s Tyvek suits. It’s the masks, the N95 masks. The second thing that we need are treatment options. The third is the vaccine development, and the fourth is the point of care diagnostics. Hugh, we’ve been moving very rapidly on all four fronts. Today, for example, on the personal equipment front, HHS is putting out a half a billion dollar proposal to rapidly get manufacturers of face masks in to get that done. If you look at the treatment options, this is what’s interesting, Hugh. If somebody gets Corona, and they’re moderately to severely infected, there’s, first of all, there’s a drug called Remdesivir. It’s made by Gilead. What we’ve done there are a number of things. First of all, we’ve secured the 4,500 doses that they have. In addition, as a cost of almost $200 million, we’re moving to secure the other 90,000 doses they have in involved material. Now the Chinese have been famously uncooperative, so what we’re doing with that drug is going to clinical trials in Japan as well as in Nebraska, where we have some patients. And we’re hoping that within 60 days, we’ll have an idea whether that drug’s efficacious. Secondly, on the treatment front, and this is really interesting, Hugh, there’s a couple of thousand drugs that have been FDA-approved that we’re going to sequentially and rapidly screen to see if they have any efficacy. And the good news about these, this process is they’re already FDA-approved. So if we find something, we can quickly get that to the American people. As a third treatment, there’s something called monoclonal antibodies. Basically what they do when you inject them as a serum, they strengthen the immune system of a patient, and they slow down the rate of proliferation in the body of the virus. There’s a company called Regeneron, and again, we’re working closely with them on the treatment option. If you move to the vaccine development…

    The anti-viral drug, a nucleotide analog that fails replication by the virus, is very effective in the one case it was used. The patient was severely ill with pneumonia and recovered in 24 hours after the drug was used. Obviously that is an anecdote but 90,000 doses will be produced and tested.

  3. There is a dearth of reliable information on this disease. Take the deaths in China- there is no way the Chinese even know that a particular respiratory related death is caused by the novel coronavirus without actually doing the RNA screening for the specific virus. I suspect that 90% of the deaths are due pneumonia related to other causes. If 50,000 people die every year in the US from pneumonia, then imagine that it is 200,000/year in China at a minimum, which means that in the absence of COVID, China would have suffered at least 20-30,000 pneumonia related deaths since the first of the year. COVID related deaths are just noise in the overall death causes in China itself at this point.

  4. I would not go as far as to say “We have nothing to fear but fear itself”. Fear being generated by certain groups does not help the very real situation that may occur.
    The info about Italy was great, but closing borders may be necessary.
    I think that the US should do more on cutting off travelers from certain countries.

  5. A further wrinkle is that over time a really bad disease can evolve to be less lethal and hence more contagious. The end stage is something like the herpes viruses that a huge proportion of the population has but they never have any symptoms.

  6. JimNorCal:

    The article doesn’t say whether she is immuno-compromised, which could be a factor. Nor does it say whether she had tested negative in-between the two positives. There’s a lot of missing information there.

  7. Based on what we’ve seen in the past month, COVID19 does not seem likely to cause a pandemic any more significant than annual flu does, but time will tell. It is also unlikely to disappear from the world soon, may even rise and fall over the next, several years.

    As neo writes, it takes just the right combination of lethality, transmission rate and dormancy. Ebola is wickedly lethal, but it’s so lethal folks who contract it barely have any time to infect anyone else before they are incapacitated, which minimizes its spread. I’ve always thought our modern world is very susceptible to something that takes more than one week for symptoms to appear, especially if it can survive for long periods in the air, or on surfaces. Modern humans cover a lot of ground in one week, and many of us encounter a lot of other humans in a typical week. In the West we are probably very susceptible to a pet borne illness, something that uses dogs or cats as carriers.

    I’ve always been amazed we’ve avoided something akin to the Spanish Flu pandemic for more than 100 years. The speed of modern travel makes such an outbreak more likely, in my mind. But what I’ve seen regarding COVID19 has me rethinking things. Medical care is MUCH better today than it was 100 years ago, at least in 2nd and 1st world nations, and a much greater percentage of humans live in 2nd and 1st world conditions today. Perhaps if a disease identical to the Spanish Flu broke out today our ability to identify sufferers, minimize the affect of symptoms and communicate across the planet instantaneously would make that disease much less deadly? And, the greatest factor may be the overall health of humanity. What percentage of the world at the turn of the 20th century were well fed, well rested, had access to fresh water, could wash their hands or even bathe regularly? Maybe we’ve had diseases equivalent to Spanish Flu break out once or more in the past 100 years, but our living standards mitigated the spread and lethality? Until now I thought that was hubris, but hygiene, access to good medical care and an immune system in good stead are nothing to sneeze at.

  8. I am generally cautious when it comes to germs as a rule. I don’t dip into the Holy Water, shake hands during the Sign of Peace, nor receive the Cup. Here in our office building I use a tissue to touch door handles leading to the public restroom and wipe things down with my own tissues. To clean my hands I use a paper towel to turn the faucet on and off. About 7 months ago I started buying toiletries that are manufactured in the U.S.A., Canada, Europe and Israel, none made with “imported materials”. I decided to do this when a woman here in Southern California ended up in ICU due to face cream manufactured in Mexico (American product). I’m hopeful that this current scare will ignite a response that brings manufacturing of the things we use on our bodies or ingest (especially our medications) back to our own country. I realize some ingredients (I’m presently taking a supplement that requires an ingredient from Africa, but the manufacturer is here and an AAA rated company) are only available in other parts of the world.Yes, this is costing me more and it’s amazing the number of American labels that I had to discard and bypass.

  9. Sharon W.,

    I sometimes wonder if some disease threat could alter the Catholic Mass rituals you mention. I have been at Masses where the wine was not offered due to a particularly rough flu season and I’ve also heard Priests remind people to not shake hands during that point of Mass if they do not feel well.

    My wife seems to always sit directly behind a teen with a runny nose who loves to shake hands! We keep hand sanitizer in our car and use it immediately after attending church.

  10. Yesterday we were at St. Monica’s in Santa Monica for Ash Wednesday Mass. The priest announced that for at least a few weeks the Cup will not be offered. (Los Angeles Archdiocese-wide). Because I receive the Eucharist in my hand, I don’t want to touch peoples’ hands prior to Communion.

  11. Sharon, Rufus, when I lived in India I attended a few Catholic masses. At the sign of the Peace, people turned towards each other, palms pressed together, and bowed slightly. No touching. I like that so much better.

  12. I’m certain Neo will address this tidbit in Part 2, since she is usually quite thorough.

    My wife (who is an NP) was telling me about research that indicates that in the case of the Influenza Pandemic of 1918/1919, the widespread use of aspirin in developed countries, prescribed to people in very, very large doses, may have been a significant factor in the flu’s lethality.

    Fascinating stuff.

  13. Just as their hatred for and frenzied opposition to President Trump has caused the members of the Deep State to rise from their former positions of concealment, and to expose to us their words, their actions, and a hidden shadow government that most of us never really conceived or knew of, the rise of the Corona virus has also exposed something of great significance and consequence that few of us were ever aware of.

    And that is that, according to reports, the majority of our pharmaceuticals, our antibiotics—and in the case of antibiotics that percentage is reportedly 80%–the chemicals used in medicine, and the medical equipment we use is manufactured in and is imported from China.

    (One Senator was just on Carlson’s show saying that we are dependent on China for something like 150 different drugs.)

    How could our political, military, and business leaders let us get into such an obviously vulnerable position?

    I note one report today that a Chinese ship, filled with face masks, that was headed for the U.S., has turned around, and is headed back to China–guess they needed these face masks more than we do.

  14. Appreciate the thoughtful and realistic commentary. There is far too much sensationalism and speculation and not enough honest evaluation of the facts.

    That said, doesn’t hurt to pick up dry and canned foods and water as a precaution.

  15. The out-sourcing of production of essentials to China is a result of the globalism espoused by the Clintonista Democrats and the Wall Street Journal free trade types, usually GOPers.
    This has really turned America into a de facto colony of communist China. The trade imbalance is outrageously massive.
    We have truly bought from China the economic rope with which to hang ourselves.
    Chinese graduate students are in all our universities, sucking up our research knowledge and taking it home. Plus the notorious Chinese intellectual property theft in all realms.
    China is our enemy.
    Sure, Russia has nukes, but China is the inexorable danger.

  16. “How could our political, military, and business leaders let us get into such an obviously vulnerable position?” – Snow on Pine

    Well, obvious candidates are stupidity, ignorance, misplaced ideological optimism,
    but mostly graft, corruption, bribery (all disguised as campaign contributions), and outright treason.

  17. A round-up of some interesting, and some slightly off-the-usual-track, reports.

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/whistleblower-federal-workers-sent-to-remove-americans-from-wuhan-without-proper-coronavirus-protection
    (administration not quite as up-to-snuff as they are putting out?)

    https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101
    (But will Iran and the BDS fanatics be willing to take something from the Zionist Satan?)

    https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/27/spokeswoman-iranian-hostage-takers-corona-virus/
    (karma finally on the job maybe — she was at a major council meeting the day before)

    https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/27/california-monitoring-8400-cases-coronavirus/
    (but, according to the maps, only a few are confirmed — really?)

  18. To have an idea about how lethal is the virus, the best example we have is the Diamond Princess.

    There were 650 infected from more than 3000 tested (the full passage is about 4000). Let’s be aware that that means that 650 people had the virus when they were tested. The real number of infected could be higher: in some cases people kill the virus very quickly. That real number only can be known once there’s a serological test for the virus, and the one for the coronavirus was released only a few days ago, by a German company:
    https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/Mecklenburg/Grevesmuehlen/Euroimmun-aus-Luebeck-bringt-Test-zur-Diagnose-von-Coronavirus-heraus

    4 people have died in the Diamond Princess. The total number of peole who are o were infected should be somewhere between 650 and 1000. That’d make a 0.5% to 1% death rate.

    But that’s not all. The passage in the Diamond Princess were mostly retired people, in their 60s, 70s and even 80s. A 0.5% to 1% death rate in those cases means that the average one for the general population should be lower, somewhere between 0.1% to 0.2%.

    Of course, that’s a very quick calculation with a small sample of people. The numbers will be probably wrong… BUT I think they’re valid enough to give us a clue about the order of magnitude. I’d bet the final death rate will be something like 0.X% or lower. This is a serious crisis, but it’s not the Spanish Flu.

    And besides that, it seems to be seasonal. You barely has cases in warm places (only exception: Singapore, but most of cases there were linked to meetings in air-conditioned buildings), and the spring is coming.

    So keep your immune system ready (sleep well, healthy food, vitamins, exercise, avoid stress), but don’t worry too much.

  19. Interesting development.
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/27/president-trump-considering-defense-production-act-to-expand-domestic-production-of-u-s-medical-needs/#comment-7891895

    A2 says:
    February 28, 2020 at 12:56 am
    There is a reason Dr Birx was brought onboard.

    Coronavirus far more likely than Sars to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation, scientists say
    Research by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola
    Finding may help scientists understand how the infection spreads and where it came from

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052495/coronavirus-far-more-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say
    Indian researchers and Thailand were the first to identify the link. The Indian paper was rushed out before peer review, then withdrawn. Now Nankai researchers have found similar evidence as have French researchers (their HIV research is top in the world next to the US). Published in ‘ Antiviral Research’ on 10 February.

    The linked article has more details, which are kind of scary.

    The new coronavirus has an HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.
    The discovery could help to explain not only how the infection has spread but also where it came from and how best to fight it.

    When looking at the genome sequence of the new coronavirus, Professor Ruan Jishou and his team at Nankai University in Tianjin found a section of mutated genes that did not exist in Sars, but were similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.

    The mutation could not be found in Sars, Mers or Bat-CoVRaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was considered the original source of the new coronavirus with 96 per cent similarity in genes, it said.
    This could be “the reason why SARS-CoV-2 is more infectious than other coronaviruses”, Li wrote in a paper released on Chinarxiv on Sunday.

    The mutation, which Ruan’s team described as an “unexpected insertion”, could come from many possible sources such as a coronavirus found in rats or even a species of avian flu.

  20. If this virus doesn’t kill a gazillion Americans and thereby topple Trump, CNN and Dems will be very unhappy.

  21. So far I agree with Yann’s analysis. Until the COVID data starts to outpace the standard seasonal flu data, I think cautious watch and wait are in order. The panic in the markets and in general is not justified at this point by the numbers.

  22. @AesopFan

    (but, according to the maps, only a few are confirmed — really?

    California isn’t monitoring 8400 cases, they are monitoring people who might have come in contact with carriers. Folks returning from trips to South Korea, for instance.

  23. Italy has more cases than other countries in Europe right now. This is especially mysterious.

    No mystery — Italy has large numbers of resident Chinese. The largest group is in Milan, where many of the cases are.

  24. The markets see what most politicians do not, and the markets have crashed globally this week.
    Nationhood is good, globalism bad!

  25. Fractal Rabbit, above, is correct. The salicylate toxicity hypothesis for the high case mortality in the 1918-1919 influenza epidemic has been around for a while and is certainly respectable. Very high doses of aspirin were used to treat flu victims in many places, doses known now to be toxic. The toxicity of high dose salicylates includes pulmonary edema (fluid in the lungs) which was a feature in many of the deaths. There were official recommendations for aspirin therapy by the U.S. Surgeon General and the U.S. Navy in September 1918 and there was a big spike in deaths from flu in the U.S. beginning shortly thereafter. There were a few physicians at the time who suspected that salicylate toxicity was responsible for some or much of the mortality. Patterns of salicylate use may explain why the mortality was especially high in young adults, very unusual for epidemic disease.

  26. In case you are worried about claims by the Left that President Trump is singularly unfit to preside over the corona-crisis:

    https://libertyunyielding.com/2020/02/28/when-it-comes-to-public-health-crises-the-lefts-memory-is-short/

    Even the Associated Press, no friend of conservatives, acknowledges that Democrats are “distort[ing] coronavirus readiness.”

    He’s proposed cuts but Congress ignored him and increased financing instead. The National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention aren’t suffering from budget cuts that never took effect.

    AP’s fact check also shoots down the claim there has been a “steady erosion of a CDC grant program for state and local public health emergency preparedness — the front lines in detecting and battling new disease,” under Trump, underscoring the fact that “that decline was set in motion by a congressional budget measure that predates Trump.”

    Speaking of events that predate Trump, congressional Democrats and the media seem to have lost sight of the fact the nation was in a similar predicament not that long ago. As Marc Thiessen noted in the Washington Post in an October 2014 op-ed titled “Ebola and Obama’s crisis of competence”:

    …The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention instructs health workers returning from West Africa to monitor their health for 21 days and that “during the time that you are monitoring your health, you can continue your normal activities.” Only after a health worker’s temperature reaches 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit does the CDC advise that he or she go to a doctor, “limit your contact with other people” and “avoid public transportation.”

    Continue your normal activities? It is simply unbelievable that this remains the official federal guidance for people who were exposed to the Ebola virus — especially after the CDC just came under fire for telling Dallas nurse Amber Vinson (who had been exposed to Ebola and had a 99.5-degree fever) that she was safe to fly on a plane with 134 passengers aboard because her temperature had not yet reached 100.4 degrees.

    This is the same CDC whose sage advice the Left is now claiming — falsely — that Trump is ignoring.

    Soooo – I’m not sure if that’s a mic drop line or a problem.

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