In case you’ve been stranded on a desert island recently, today is the NH primary
First, I’m going to make a prediction without reading the polls. I predict Sanders wins, Buttigieg second, Klobuchar third, Biden fourth. I think Sanders will lead because in 2016 he beat Hillary Clinton 60% to 38% in the New Hamphshire primary. That’s quite a margin.
As for Buttigieg, I think many voters are looking for a candidate they perceive as moderate – that is, a candidate a significant number of voters can be fooled into thinking is moderate. That’s a tried-and-true Democratic tactic. I think those voters are deserting Biden, and going both to Buttigieg and Klobuchar. That’s why I place Buttigieg second, her third, and Biden fourth.
Now I’m going to look at the polls. Pardon me for a moment.
I see that the polls pretty much agree with what I wrote above, except they have a tie for fourth between Biden and Warren.
The polls don’t even acknowledge Bloomberg, at least not the ones at the site I checked. And I had forgotten him, too – but I shouldn’t have. He’s another person who represents (at least for the moment) a refuge for Democrats who want a candidate less forcefully leftist. All people have really seen of him so far are his ads, and so they haven’t had much exposure to his off-the-cuff remarks or even his record except as he wishes to present it. I predict he’ll do surprisingly well, but still be in something like 5th place.
Klobuchar is surging. So, I’m going to go out on a limb and say:
1. Sanders
2. Klobuchar
3. Buttigieg
4. Warren
5. Biden
Four and five will be distant from one through three. Indeed,I’ll go so far as to suggest Biden barely hangs on to fifth place above… Bloomberg? Gabbard?
Biden has already fled to South Carolina, strongly suggesting he knows he’s in for a shellacking. But he won’t drop out, yet. Not until South Carolina, at least. Warren *might* drop out, but I see her stubbornly hanging on a bit longer too.
Biden deserted Biden.
Unless Sanders gets at least 60% of the total votes cast any of the other candidates can point out he has LOST support since 2016.
As Warren would say – DO THE MATH!*
*actually you don’t need higher level maths, simple arithmetic will suffice. But it impresses the idiots and the leftists (I repeat myself) to use the word ‘math’.
My two cents worth.
Sanders
Klobucher
Bloomberg tied with Buttigieg
Warren
Biden as an also ran
A lot of write ins for Bloomberg
But he will tank in NC after the release of the video about Stop and Frisk
Viewing the race as it stood last summer, I guessed a subset of a list of five would be in the mix: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg. Didn’t anticipate Klobberherworkers, Steyer, or Bloomberg might have an opening.
Princess Spreading Bull is stalled in a state into which the Boston media market extends if I’m not mistaken. Maybe she should consult another lunatic youth to decide how to revamp her promotional campaign. Instead of the meat-and-potatoes of this generation’s John Money-style quack, maybe she should be more conventional and pick a youngster held together with anti-psychotics.
Biden appears to be fixin’ to be this year’s Jebbie Arbusto, contingent on what happens in South Carolina. Everything’s quite protean at this point and the last poll there on the RCP list was taken prior to Iowa. Can’t say he hasn’t earned a third helping of humiliation.
Our friend Yancey says Steyer has been advertising for term limits in the Carolinas and East Tennessee, which may account for why he’s performing well there. This year’s Kasich?
In re Bloomberg, can his money establish him in a multi-state race after performing poorly in early primaries? The only attempt by a vigorous contender to avoid early contests in the last 40 years was Rudolph Giuliani’s effort in 2008. At the time, one of his aides said ‘we’re either the smartest guys in the room or the dumbest guys in the room’. They won a total of 0 delegates. Then again, Giuliani didn’t have $60 bn bucks.
I know you’ve been paying less attention to this attempt to be America’s first white gay president than I have. Fortunately, this climber has the Mayor Pete Platitude Generator to explain it all to you.
http://americandigest.org/mayor-twink-pete-explains-it-all-to-you/
“As for Buttigieg, I think many voters are looking for a candidate they perceive as moderate ”
His father was a Marxist and he is a red diaper baby. The media will not report that.
There’s not one of those candidates who can’t be eviscerated by Trump just by using confirmed facts and video’s of their public utterances.
Sanders is a communist pretending to be a progressive socialist. He’s refused to fire the two nutjobs who want to send deplorables to gulag camps. He refuses to explain how he’ll pay for “Medicare for all”. “Schweizer: Bernie Sanders Funneled Tax and School Money to His Family” He rails about climate change while spending more on private jets than all the rest combined.
Buttigieg on the View stated that the mother should be the one to decide if INFANTICIDE is appropriate. He wants to make heroin and meth use a misdemeanor. He’s another John Kerry who didn’t see a minute of combat.
Klobuchar is a joke. Warren and Biden are done.
“Joe Biden 1974: ‘Politicians Can Take Away’ First Amendment ‘If We Want’”
Bloomberg in 2015 told the truth about race and crime and cops. He’s now been labeled by leftists as a RACIST. An anti-gun fanatic with armed guards. And Sanders thinks Bloomberg’s wealth disqualifies him. Hypocritically ignoring his own millionaire status.
Other than Bloomberg, every one of them is for open borders and welfare for illegals.
Biden is toast, but too confused and warped to realize he has absolutely no chance to be the nominee. Sadly, his family and staff encourage him to stumble on. Time to go home Joe and retire. You have a new grandchild to enjoy.
https://www.redstate.com/tladuke/2020/02/11/here-are-the-vegas-odds-for-who-wins-new-hampshire-tonight/
“You still have time to place your bets on who will win the New Hamshire primary tonight.”
You say New Hamshire, I say New Hampshire;
You spell it hampster, I spell it hamster.
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/millennial-writer-cries-for-mother-at-work-when-editor-corrects-her-spelling/
Somewhat surprisingly, the auto-fill came up with “hampster misspelling story” as soon as I put in “hampst” — didn’t even have to check my bookmarks. I’m surprised that somebody’s spell-checker let that error go through, though.
Were I still a Democrat I would have to vote for Amy Klobuchar over the rest of the nest of vipers. I kind of can’t stand the rest of the pack and she has a lot of flaws as a prosecutor. What a mess for the Dems.
PJ Media has the votes as they are reported:
https://pjmedia.com/blog/liveblogevent/live-drunkblogging-the-new-hampshire-primary/
With about 25% in, it’s Sanders 28.25%, Buttigieg 22.43%, Klobuchar 19.28%, Warren 10.31%, Biden 8.3%. Unless Warren gets a huge bump from counties that border Massachusetts, she’s toast.
And moving on Bloomberg is the Joker in the Deck !
Pretty sad for Biden, if one is inclined to charity. I thought he would fade months before this. I guess he represented the Quest for Sanity to Beat Trump but became The Light That Failed.
Impressive for Klobuchar, who I thought would get lost in the shuffle. More Quest for Sanity.
I’m still not sure why Warren has done so poorly. I guess she became A Plan Too Far. Democrats would rather not know the specifics of how Santa steers his sled to your house, then climbs down the chimney to deliver all the presents.
Bernie retains the Mystery of Santa Claus.
Sanders and Warren together would be about 37% (at this point). That’s a significant chunk for the party to cope with. Somehow, I can’t see either Buttigieg or Klobuchar taking the country by storm in November.
Actually Deval Patrick is still running, but in deep stealth mode. I did find a CSPAN clip of Patrick in NH — 77 minutes worth if you can stand it:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?467896-1/deval-patrick-campaigns-hampshire
“a prediction without reading the polls. I predict Sanders wins, Buttigieg second, Klobuchar third”
Looking good.
Amy’s result is the surprise.
I have a memory of being a 10 year old and going with my mother to take my grandmother to vote in a local election. As we came out of the local Fire Station I asked my grandmother and mom who they voted for. My mom took me by the ear and walked me away a bit ant told me that in our country the vote was a personal sacred act of independence and then she went on to tell me that my grandmother had marched in the early 1900’s to help win women the right to vote as they wished for whom ever they wished.
Sometimes we tend to forget to show up, shut up and just, damn it, vote.
Just to lighten the mood.
https://babylonbee.com/news/new-political-bible-adds-r-or-d-after-each-characters-name