Home » More clouds on Iran’s horizon?

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More clouds on Iran’s horizon? — 12 Comments

  1. We tend to look at totalitarian states, and think they are monolithic. The in-fighting is hidden, but very real. In WWII, the Japanese army and navy did not cooperate well. It was more like they each were fighting their own war. Germany also had hidden conflicts that reduced their effectiveness.

    We look at Iran, and think we see one thing, but the reality is much more complicated. You have the TV news guy resigning. You have demonstrators refusing to walk on American and Israeli flags. They are looking for scapegoats, no one ever volunteers for that job.

    What we have today is the fog of war. The obvious one is the 40 year war with Iran, that some have just now noticed. The more important ones are our long war with China, and our current civil war. Each with its own fog bank.

    When Iran gets nukes, and they will, what they choose to do with them is unknown. Will they use them to kill Israel, which triggers a Samson response that renders gulf oil radioactive for a thousand years? Or do they use them as a deterrent, as they continue a proxy war? Who knows?

    What is it we don’t know? How can we learn what we don’t know? What is Truth? Who do you trust? Welcome to the fog bank.

  2. I just want to note that a responsible government that was striking an enemy with ballistic missiles would have closed the airspace. While the military enforces violation in those cases, it is the civilian authority that clues airlines that they ought not to be flying. I’m pretty sure the reasonable Persian mind can figure that out.

  3. One of the differences between Donald Trump and the U.S. political establishment is that Trump understands the U.S. has the biggest “unit” on the planet and he isn’t afraid to swing it around. He’s not obsessed with maintaining cordial relations or diplomatic niceties and is willing to apply blunt, naked pressure in situations where our foreign policy elites are to afraid of stepping on anyone’s toes.

    Does this approach carry risks? Yep, and we might see the downside to it in a second Trump term. The downside to speaking softly and NEVER carrying a big stick, however, is to allow horrible oppression and injustice to continue to hold sway over tens of millions of innocent people.

    Mike

  4. Neo
    Finally, I can see you start pointing to the big miss of the Iranian regime ugly face with its tool “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)”

    People/countries and regional neighbours are suffering much form 1979 The Islamic Revolution till now.

    After 2003 Iran had a freehand in the region in fact US invasion of Iraq open big doors for the lunatic regime to benefits from US invasion more than any regional countries in the ME.

    Iran regime left loss so long that the lunatics think that they immune from punishment.

    Sadly, Russia and China support the regime to degree that the regime pleased that have the support of the international community. Recent China, Russia and Iran hold joint naval drills in Gulf as an example.

    Here, may I pick your attention for the Iranian regime for the last 16 years in Iraq they replicate their tools inside Iraq exactly like their tool “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)” but with different name and factions

    Regional Implications: Iraq

    In many ways, Iraq is critical for Iran’s strategy in the region, serving as a gateway into Syria and a physical buffer against Saudi Arabia. Iran has long-backed proxies in Iraq, including the Badr Corps and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI),27 whose progeny continue to collaborate with Iran to this day. Since the U.S. invasion in 2003, Iran has strategically backed Iraqi politicians and proxies to protect itself against a hostile Iraqi government and put pressure on U.S. troops in the country.28 Presently, Iran directly backs a contingent of the most prolific militias in the Hashd al-Shaabi, or Popular Mobilization Forces, including Kata’ib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and Badr Organization, among others.29 For example, the IRGC-QF provided a broad portfolio of support to Harakat al-Nujaba from 2013-2019, including training, weapons, and funding.30 During this time frame, Iranian officials (overwhelmingly IRGC personnel) met with Harakat al-Nujaba roughly 30 times. Soleimani attended about five of these meetings, highlighting the earlier point about his close relationships with Iranian proxies.h

    Let see this report about what Iranians regime missiles have done to Al-Assad Military base inside Iraq and The latest on the US-Iran crisis

  5. Iranian armed forces admitting their mistake is a good first step

    When they say “armed forces” and when you say “the military” do you mean the IRGC or the regular army? Because it strikes me that they’re analogous to the Waffen SS and the Wehrmacht, with I’m sure a similar set of rivalries and grudges.

    The commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ Aerospace Force said on Saturday that he had informed “officials”

    This is what makes me think the blame is falling on the IRGC, and therefore what we’re seeing here is a power play by the civilian authorities (the mullahs) and maybe the regular military. If so, was the IRGC getting too big for its britches and was the death of Himmler Suleimani the moment of institutional weakness that enabled the move?

    I think the real turning point is not if the IRGC fails to turn its guns against the people, but if the army turns its guns against the IRGC.

  6. Bryan Lovely on January 14, 2020 at 4:42 pm said:

    This is what makes me think the blame is falling on the IRGC
    Very precise conclusion.

    is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces, founded after the Iranian Revolution on 22 April 1979[5] by order of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.[6] Whereas the Iranian Army defends Iranian borders and maintains internal order, according to the Iranian constitution, the Revolutionary Guard (pasdaran) is intended to protect the country’s Islamic republic political system.[7] The Revolutionary Guards state that their role in protecting the Islamic system is preventing foreign interference as well as coups by the military or “deviant movements”.

    The Revolutionary Guards have roughly 125,000 military personnel including ground, aerospace and naval forces. Its naval forces are now the primary forces tasked with operational control of the Persian Gulf.[9] It also controls the paramilitary Basij militia which has about 90,000 active personnel.[10][11] Its media arm is Sepah News.

    Since its origin as an ideologically driven militia, the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution has taken a greater role in nearly every aspect of Iranian society. Its expanded social, political, military and economic role

    Wikipedia

  7. Re blame — The latest:

    Iran says it has arrested the person who filmed the footage showing a Ukrainian passenger plane being shot down by a missile. It is believed the person being detained will face charges related to national security.

  8. Ann on January 14, 2020 at 6:12 pm said:
    Re blame — The latest:

    Iran says it has arrested the person who filmed the footage showing a Ukrainian passenger plane being shot down by a missile. It is believed the person being detained will face charges related to national security.
    * * *
    It was all the fault of another video guy — something has to be done about those fiends!

  9. Isn’t it time for a headline in the Babylon Bee, “Canada, Ukraine declare war on Iran?”

    Actually, now that I think about it. . .

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