“There can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters…The world is watching”
There are now reports that Iranian demonstrators have been fired on, tear gassed, and beaten by the those in charge of riot control. It’s hard to know the extent of this, and the Tehran chief of police has denied it, but it certainly has been the case in the past.
The title of this post features some tweets from President Trump to the leaders of Iran. Here’s a fuller version:
US President Donald Trump told Iranian protesters that he supported them and warned the regime against cracking down on demonstrations that broke out after Tehran admitted shooting down an airliner by mistake, killing all 176 people aboard.
“The government of Iran must allow human rights groups to monitor and report facts from the ground on the ongoing protests by the Iranian people,” Trump tweeted Saturday in English and Farsi.
“There can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters, nor an internet shutdown. The world is watching,” Trump added, referring to an internet blackout that blanketed the country during widespread protests in November.
For those of us of a certain age, the phrase “the world is watching” rings an over-50-year-old bell. It was the chant the antiwar leftist protestors near the 1968 Democratic Convention shouted as some of them were being beaten by police in Chicago. Some history can be found here, but the gist of it is that the protestors tried to provoke police into violence and the police obliged.
Although there is really no parallel between that milder violence in 1968 and the recent massacres of protestors in Iran, the events in Chicago in 1968 were nevertheless shocking at the time to those of us who didn’t expect such things to happen in 1968 to antiwar demonstrators at a convention in the US. It was easy for college students (many of whom were against the war) to identify with the demonstrators who were being beaten.
That chant “The whole world is watching!” had a different scope in the pre-internet age. But it referred to the fact that there was massive television coverage, and that the demonstrators knew full well that the coverage would reflect poorly on the police.
Trump is old enough to remember. But when he uses the phrase now, he is addressing a murderous regime in Iran. And that regime in Iran has killed many of the student demonstrators in the past rather than just slightly injured them. This time, the whole world really is watching, because of the internet. This time, the mullahs are on the economic ropes. And this time, Trump is also purposely rubbing the left’s face in all of this by using that phrase, because the left is on the other side this time (although they would deny it, they have been empowering the present leaders of Iran).
Who will blink? Will the Iranian regime continue the violence, and how will they calibrate it? The mullahs know that, at least until January of 2021 and perhaps beyond, they are dealing with Trump and his resolve to stop them. They know that Trump has served notice through the killing of Suleimani (who among other things was the person in charge of previously cracking down so hard on the Iranian protestors) that he means business, as opposed to previous US presidents who mouthed words but whose actions spoke of passivity. Not only that, but Trump’s sanctions have hurt them economically and they fear that he’s willing to extend sanctions even further. And perhaps they think that if they start massacring the protestors, even their buddies in Europe may start turning on them (unlikely, but possible).
But they may consider it worth the risk. They know that if they don’t crack down on the protestors with lethal force, the size of the demonstrations may swell to unwieldy or even uncontrollable levels. And if the regime’s security forces ever turn on the regime as well, that would be an even greater turning point, the biggest turning point of all. I doubt it will happen, because those tasked with keeping the people in line tend to be highly dedicated to the cause of the theocracy, but it’s not unprecedented that they might have a breaking point.
One of the most poignant of all the recent chants by the demonstrators – who are mostly students – is ““You killed our geniuses!”. This is of course a reference to Flight 352 and the passengers on it, who leaned heavily to students traveling to Canada to commence or resume studies there. They were among Iran’s best and brightest, and the demonstrating students take it very personally that they were killed, and then that the people of Iran were lied to about it in such a blatant manner.
North Korea has maintained its iron grip by completely cutting its people off from the rest of the world. Iran has not done that for the most part, and it would be difficult (although not impossible) to start doing it now for more than a short while. The whole world is indeed watching, and the Iranian people are watching the whole world.
Trump: The world is watching.
Mullahs: Hold my beer.
Hey, just like the Democratic candidates in the lead-up to the primaries…(unsurprisingly….).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/13/tensions-president-rouhani-irans-revolutionary-guard-spill-open/
https://pjmedia.com/trending/nyt-editorial-board-torpedos-bernie-sanders-with-his-past-anti-illegal-immigration-positions/
https://pjmedia.com/election/sanders-goes-after-biden-on-race-and-his-iraq-war-vote/
https://pjmedia.com/election/lol-sanders-volunteers-told-to-portray-warren-supporters-as-affluent/
What happens, I guess, when the sandbox becomes a mud wrestling pit.
I would not get my hopes up. In recent history, the authoritarian regimes have demonstrated an indifference to public opinion coupled with an eager willingness to repress protests violently. They know that no matter what the damage to their image, they can count on their propaganda mills and the media to repair it. So long as they are “Anti-U.S.” and especially Anti-Trump, the Leftist media will forgive any transgression.
Yes, the world is watching. And the word knows that President Trump issued a Tweet, in Farsi, supporting the brave Iranian protesters. And the world knows that not a single one of the Democrat wannabes did so.
I think Trump is a very bright man, and courageous. But much of what he does is simply doing the things that ought to be done. Kill bad guys. Support good guys. Keep enemies out of our country. Don’t let us be taken advantage of.
even their buddies in Europe may start turning on them
Arresting the British Ambassador for three hours is a good place to start, although the present Brit reaction is somewhat less than might be desired.
Recently I compared the situation in Iran to Soviet Union after Chernobyl disaster. Now I think I was wrong, and it more resembling Romania days before Causecu fall. Protests do not curbed down, they swell and spread across the country. Iranian Kurdistan is on the brink of mass revolt after the replacement of Suleimani was appointed. He has a terrible reputation of a sadistic mass murderer, who massacred Kurds in 1981.
If the protests continue, the Mullahs will go back to the “shoot to kill” orders – though I believe the orders were more in the line of “whatever it takes”- which stopped the previous demonstrations. The issue for the Mullahs is not condemnation from the West, but survival of the regime.
Will the troops follow orders and fire on demonstrators? My guess is they will follow orders and shoot, though it is possible they will not. Recall that in 2002, Hugo Chavez invoked Plan Avila to quell demonstrations. Plan Avila involved shooting at unarmed demonstrators. When military higher-ups refused to fire, Chavez resigned. Though not for long. I recommend reading Brian Nelson’s The Silence and the Scorpion ]:the Coup Against Chavez and the Making of Modern Venezuela.
Sergey,
And of course the Mullahs have the vision of Ceausescu’s fate living large their heads.
As the Security Forces also no doubt flinch, each time a 100 yo ex-Nazi guard is found somewhere … oops, not quite living out his last days … and is summarily dragged back to Germany.
These factors are not simple; the effects cut both ways.
Speaking of the USSR … were the later days & after-effects of the Lysenko phenomenon noticeable or noteworthy for citizens such as yourself?
There can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters, nor an internet shutdown. The world is watching
So let’s look at these propositions a bit more. To say “there can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters” is not — cannot be — a true statement by itself, that is, in isolation from other statements in qualification of it. For on the contrary, there can be just such another massacre.
So, the modifier? Is the modifier “The world is watching“? No, that can’t be it. Can’t be it since the world watching doesn’t of itself stop a trigger puller, no more than the knowledge of a police station 2 miles away stops a home invader from stabbing the home’s occupant(s) to death when these are under his knife.
So what then? What is the modifier which gives the plain statement “there cannot be another massacre…” significance, or genuine meaning?
How about 6 B-52s stationed at Diego Garcia, say? What about that? Would that condition, together with the thought those B-52s might end the regime of the theocratic totalitarians make the statement more credible?
As, for instance with the home invasion scenario, rather than a police station 2 miles away, there’s SWAT team outside the house awaiting orders to enter?
Something like that, I think, would have to be in play. (And is, I conjecture.)
The internet interruption, by the way, is in progress and ongoing.
sdferr,
I think Trump’s remarks were addressed to audiences spread world-wide, not just (or even primarily) the Iranian leadership.
At home, importantly. In Europe, Asia, Russia … one & all, really.
It’s not possible to have a fixed plan, going into something like this. Because Flight 752.
Experts study each Mullah in turn, individually. Much can be learned, and to a degree anticipated and predicted. But you can’t lean on that too heavily.
Plus, this is verging into Mountain Meadows territory. People can come to a point where they slip a cog, veer off suddenly on novel tangents. [Flight 752?]
We’re ready. Our allies are ready. Critically, they are incapable of waging real war. We don’t want to have to react … but we certainly can. Such ‘clear & present’ knowledge could have prevented Mountain Meadows.
When Trump states, “there can not be another massacre of peaceful protesters” he is implying that if there is another massacre of protesters it will force America to act to interfere… he’s adding that metric to his other ‘tripwire’, the killing of Americans by Iran or its proxies, whether soldiers or civilians.
Reading between the lines of what Trump has previously said in two comments, the killing of American citizens will result in a severe reaction by America.
I wonder if the Mullahs appreciate Trump’s other, unspoken tripwire… the arrest and imprisonment of American citizens.
Trump’s waiting for the Mullahs to provide an excuse, a rationale for military action that the left cannot effectively spin.
I think you’ve got the gist of the President’s position Geoffrey. He doesn’t seem to issue empty threats nor set red lines to be ignored. His triggers are accumulating, as you suggest, which in turn leads to the conclusion he is itching for an error on the Supreme Leader’s part.
Why? After so many wasted years, why not? Or said another way, to make an efficient end to the thing while putting the world’s peace on a more stable footing.
As i covered this in the other thread, i wont again..
other than to say i connected it to the leftist and other such regimes
and if the wrong leader wins in the US and the left gets their way, they wont be protesting no more no more they wont be protesting no more..
and to remind us that you cant turn a pickle into a cucumber
once it goes sour, it goes sour..
The police are NOT there to CREATE disorder. The police are there to PRESERVE disorder. So there.
For the most part, only in leftist/liberal cities.
In recent history, the authoritarian regimes have demonstrated an indifference to public opinion coupled with an eager willingness to repress protests violently.
It depends a great deal on what the alternative to the regime is.
In the Warsaw Pact countries, the authoritarian regimes were far from indifferent to killing the protesters, and collapsed in 1989 with barely a murmur. (Note even in earlier times it took Soviet tanks to put down previous serious protests, not local ones.) But the protesters in those countries had a very clear idea what the alternative to Soviet power — democracy. They’d had it before, and they liked it.
Regimes survive if the bulk of people fear the fall of the regime, because it might lead to anarchy. They see Iraq and Syria and they are worried. Cubans have never known democracy, so a fall of the Party will likely be a strong man, and no improvement. As bad as Cuba is, it is better than Haiti or Venezuela.
The mullahs will fall if the bulk of the people think that a stable democracy will arise. They won’t fall if the bulk of people suspect sectarian violence. Because Iran is more homogenous than Syria or Iraq, and a democratic system is already mostly in place, it might work. But do the people trust that?
In addition to my other comment above, I would also point out that the biggest problem with the dictator business is that it often has a lousy retirement plan. These guys have a tiger by the tail, and letting go of the tiger probably seems unhealthy to them.
In 1968 the collective feeling of American “youth” had built up during that year, whether we had any strong feeling about Vietnam or not, because of the assassinations of MLK and of Bobby Kennedy above all, which connected in a direct line to the Democratic convention there in Chicago.
Eugene McCarthy’s seeming apathy didn’t help. He stood down.
Meanwhile, most of us knew that the Yippies and Fugs, Jerry Rubin and such, were idiots. (Rubin even said he was glad RFK was killed, because otherwise there would not be as many demonstrators in Chicago. He and Abbie Hoffman were scum, and this was known. Even the Diggers hated them.)
I was 16 at the time and followed events closely. We had protests here in Portland, complete with cops beating up kids. I subscribed to and read the weekly Realist and East Village Other with great attention. I didn’t march around or sit in the halls of my high school as I was never going to sing “We Shall Overcome” nor lie down to be carried away by some cop.
Yet I was elected president of Washington High in autumn of 1969.
Lee Smith, Tablet Mag: OBAMA PASSED THE BUCK. TRUMP REFUSED TO PLAY.
https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/296902/obama-passed-the-buck-trump-refused-to-play
Oh. Oh my.
“I was elected president of Washington High in autumn of 1969.”
Congratulations, my second child was born 29th of September, 1969. 😉
There will be massacres until the regime suddenly crumbles into bodies hanging on lampposts.
Since we are all about 1 point vectors and not knowing where we are from so we dont really know where we are going… here is a bit of history notes..
1979.. Soviets want to accelerate their use and infiltration of Islam..
After all, after Germany went kaput, who do you think took over all of that?
who after all funded the taking of mecca and medina and created the house of saud?
This was why Afghanistan was so important.. Tajikistan SSR and Uzbekistan SSR were theirs thanks to the war, and they would leverage that.
“Such long-term operations goal is to infiltrate every important tribal group, criminal mafia, police organization, economic center and political party in the country.”
Next using entryism, move people into places of power in each of those groups and he people are caught between the top down political powers, and the bottom up criminal factions… eventually you invade..
Iran was a bit different… but there you do similar, and “You do many favors for the government, asking little in return. You build roads and airfields. You create the infrastructure for your future invasion.”
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, “Russia has offered Iraq their S-400 air defense system to protect their airspace”. [of course, this is a slightly crippled system that they can bypass anytime they want]
Our own people help in all this… aren’t they?
but in case you haven’t noticed, Islam no longer fights at all against communism, or those old states and are quite united in directing their ire at the great enemy.
none of this is surprising IF you know how far back this history goes..
Try going back to the Safavids..
The Soviet Union was the first state to recognize the Islamic Republic of Iran, in February 1979 [and this is what is required to buy military goods, like missiles and other such weapons]
Iran’s Air Force and civilian air fleet are increasingly becoming domestically and Russian built
So the accident was no accident… was it? An ally who would take the blame acted on behalf of an ally who could not. ooopsie… our mistake… lets have a mulligan..
In 2005, Russia was the seventh largest trading partner of Iran, with 5.33% of all exports to Iran originating from Russia. Trade relations between the two increased from US$1 billion in 2005 to $3.7 billion in 2008. Motor vehicles, fruits, vegetables, glass, textiles, plastics, chemicals, hand-woven carpet, stone and plaster products were among the main Iranian non-oil goods exported to Russia
Kind of cosy, isnt it? one would think that my points are an over focus on that state, except that if one knows the history and the actions and remembers them, one would notice that they have their hands in everyones cookie jar… MORE so than they did in the soviet era.
So there is not much that will happen… no war, as any war would hurt who?
Iran is only incidental… as is any country in the way of certain others..
dont expect pundits to notice this, nor much… after all, so few of any comments reference long history and so give a two point vector..
electibility? that’s a funny discussion of a non concept that has little meaning except to people who have no valid articulatable reasons…
Cause women have to be told what to think…
Whoopi Goldberg and Joy Behar Blame Trump for Iran Shooting Down Ukrainian Airplane
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/juliorosas/2020/01/13/whoopi-goldberg-and-joy-behar-blame-trump-for-iran-shooting-down-ukrainian-airplane-n2559429
Not former President Obama’s finest hour.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Neda_Agha-Soltan
Glad to see Pres Trump giving explicit support, admittedly words only at this point.
“So the accident was no accident… was it? An ally who would take the blame acted on behalf of an ally who could not. ooopsie… our mistake… lets have a mulligan..” – Artfldgr
I infer you are suggesting that the targeted victim on Flight 752 was one of the Ukrainians, and everyone else died to disguise that fact.
That would answer the question of “if Iran didn’t like someone on the flight why not just pull them off and arrest them?” — couldn’t do that to a foreign national with no Iranian heritage.
Of course, Iran still tried to avoid taking the blame, but their “confession” still kept Russia out of the picture.
https://www.thenewneo.com/2006/05/31/be-careful-what-you-wish-for-1968/
“If the goal was to win the Presidential election for the Democrats, Clinton was remarkably and stupendously successful, at least for eight years. If the goal was to actually pull the Party back from the influence of the left in foreign policy, that goal has not been achieved.” -Neo
That goal has not been achieved because it is now blindingly obvious that it never was the goal.
Okay, sorry this made me laugh, although bitterly.
Little did we know….
chuck on March 3, 2007 at 12:00 am said:
..So, what will 2008 be like? Haven’t a clue. The Republicans do seem to have a number of strong choices. As to the Democrats I really can’t see Kerry, Gore, or Edwards as viable candidates. Is there anybody else besides Hillary?
A failed prediction and a shrewd observation.
Mearcstapa on March 3, 2007 at 12:00 am said:
It is going to be fascinating to watch the Democratic party explode when, after being fed nothing but information slamming Bush and the Republican party, America still elects a Republican President in ’08.
Hopefully, what emerges from the ashes will be an improvement on both parties.
BeckyJ on March 3, 2007 at 12:00 am said:
Oh yeah, ’08 is gonna be one heck of an election year. I’m looking forward to it. But then, as a political scientist, I do get my jolly’s this way!
I don’t think that the Democratic Party has awoken to the fact that it has essentially been captured by internal special interests. The results of this year’s elections will let us see the extent to which those special interests have control over the majority of Democratic voters.
There is, in my opinion, a rather nasty development over the shooting down of the Ukrainian passenger plane in Iran, in 2020.
My apologies, firstof all, to all of those affected by this tragedy.
A boss of a Canadian company is trying to blame Pres. Trump for the Iranians shooting down that plane… an attack which killed all the people who were on that plane.
With all respect, I partly understand why this boss is upset, since friends of his died from this plane disaster.
But there is no connection to this attack, and the Western nations.
But- to blame a foreign President for this crime?
Did Trump go to Iran, + push the switch that fired that missile?
Did Trump ORDER those Iranian military men to push the switch, which fired the missile at that plane?
With all due respect, Iran did this all on its own.
Blaming another nation for this tragedy is just nonsense.
That is nonsense.
TR,
Agreed. Exactly how far back in the chain of events do you go? Why not blame Columbus? If he hadn’t discovered America than there would be no U.S. and we wouldn’t even be in the middle east because we wouldn’t exist. Therefore, Columbus did it.
Absurd…
I wish the president could spare a word for the million Uighur muslims held in Chinese concentration camps.
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Mike Doran, @doranimated: “This is big. The Iranians have repeatedly warned—threatened—the Euros not to take this action. It is the first step in a process that, with a little luck, will end in SnapBack, the reimposition of the 6 UNSC resolutions that make Iran’s nuclear program illegal internationally.”
That was in response to this tweet by laurence norman, @laurnorman : “It’s now official. E3 put out a statement confirming triggering dispute mechanism in #IranDeal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1217052134727913472
Sooner is better.
Richard Goldberg, @rich_goldberg (who recently left Trump’s NSC, with the Iran nuclear issue his particular lookout there) has posted a series of 14 tweets explaining the whys and wherefores of the current state of play on UNSCR 2231 and SnapBack. I’ve condensed them here to a single text, but will leave that in plain text rather than blockquote html, quoted by asterisks, (with bracketed numbering of each tweet added by me). Goldberg’s summation is thorough and clear, I think.
………….. …………. ………… …………. ……………. …………… ………….. ………….
Richard Goldberg, @rich_goldberg:
*** #Iran must not be allowed to have its nuclear cake and eat its sunsets too. That is the phrase you’ll hear me use over and over, and it is the reason the snapback of UNSCR 2231 needs to happen as soon as possible. Let me explain in the context of today’s announcement by the E3. [1] Following the US decision to impose maximum pressure by ending oil sanctions exceptions, #Iran launched multiple lines of effort to push back on US pressure to gain sanctions relief by trying to influence American and European politics without triggering a war. [2] The one we focus on the most right now is non-attributable violent attacks like limpet mines in the Gulf, the cruise missile attack on Saudi and the more recent activity in Iraq that prompted the kinetic response from @realDonaldTrump to restore deterrence, which he largely has. [3] The other is the nuclear front. Slowly breaching every limit of the #IranDeal #JCPOA to drive the Europeans crazy, give @brhodes a talking point for 2020, pressure @realDonaldTrump to relieve sanctions pressure and – in their own mind – gain some bargaining chips ahead of talks. [4] That #Iran is able to breach its JCPOA nuclear limits – enriching uranium above 3.67%, increasing its low enriched uranium stockpile, testing advanced centrifuges, restarting enrichment at Fordow & increasing its heavy water stockpile – tells us how horrible the JCPOA was. [5] Leaving #Iran with turnkey nuclear capabilities ready to emerge at any moment to threaten international peace and security was a fatal mistake of the JCPOA. The sunsets were pouring lemon juice on an open cut, as if the deal couldn’t have gotten worse but did. [6] Maximum pressure backed by a credible military deterrent remains the only way to force this regime to permanently dismantle all its enrichment & reprocessing related capabilities. You can’t fix this deal by extending sunsets. #Iran has a master sunset clause: any time it wants. [7] And so the question has been, what more can we do while #Iran slowly breaches its nuclear limits to gradually reset its breakout timeline to a pre-JCPOA level ahead of talks, but notably not to far enough to prompt a US or Israeli military attack on its nuclear facilities? [8] Answer: Snapback all UN restrictions and sanctions, ending UNSCR 2231 and restoring all prior UN resolutions instead. That means no enrichment allowed; no ballistic missile testing allowed; no sunsets allowed; arms embargo remains indefinitely beyond October. [9] UNSCR 2231 says that if Iran is in significant non-performance of its JCPOA limits, any original JCPOA participant State can trigger this SnapBack and end the sunsets. The US retains this right at the UN. The E3 obviously does too. The E3 today has taken the first step to do so. [10] Why did the E3 wait since June 2019 to start a process to push #Iran back inside its nuclear commitments or else end its precious sunsets? Weakness, appeasement, personal investments in JCPOA and an initial belief that #Iran would outlast Trump. They were wrong and look feckless. [11] But here we are. The E3 triggering the deal’s dispute mechanism, which should move to the Security Council for a final 30-day clock without delay. No waiting; no delays; no kicking the can. #Iran will play games; but if just one of the E3 wants to end the game, it can do so. [12] The JCPOA echo chamber, like Iran itself, is freaking out. They know this is the beginning of the end of the worst deal in history. They know the sunsets are soon going away. They know the UK is going to #Brexit & could see this through quickly. So they’re downplaying. [13] But make no mistake: Iran should never ever be allowed to have its nuclear cake and eat its sunsets too. If #Iran wants to enrich uranium as it has, it should see its precious sunsets go away. No lifting of the arms embargo this October for such a dangerous regime. END [14] ***
The chances of Iran going into uncontrollable chaos has greatly rose today when the ruling clerics announced that they were not informed by the military about accidental rocket launch untill Friday, so arrests were made among suspected military officers and a special tribunal installed to trial them. There is an evident split between clerics and military leaders, both trying to shift the blame for this debacle on each other. No special tribunal is needed to scapegoat some low-rank schmuk for a blunder. It is neccesary only for political show trial involving military leadership as accused in gross incompetence or worse, in a deliberate provocation to make government look bad and seize the power. Totalitarian regimes of this type do not go down because of protests themselves if the ruling elites stay united, but only when they are used by one of the factions to bury another.
Sergey, doesn’t Khamenei risk pissing off his actual chief enforcement arm in that (show trials) ? The IRGC runs the anti-air missile systems, so it’s their mugs being shamed. I dunno, seems absurdly risky to me.
sdferr: Indeed, it is. But the clerics are struggling for their survival now, and being paranoid, suspect everybody in conspiracy to overthrow them. IRGC is the first suspect in such effort. Suleimany was very popular and was allowed to accrue lots of power, but they still were fearing him. His replacement is not so popular with Army, which can refuse to defend him and his structures from political prosecution. Quite soon we will witness one of the two things: military putch against clerical leadership, like in Mursi Egypt, or massive purges in Army and IRGC. Stories told by military and ayatollas diverge with reality: military insist that they did not use live ammunition in supressing protests, but hundreds of protesters show shot wounds. Would clerics believe military and defend them, or will choose to throw them to the wolves to appease the crowds? In 1939 Stalin arrested and killed almost all his generals, as well all Secret Services leadership.
Looking around, I see Alireza Nader report that Khamenei will give a sermon at Fri. evening prayers; that he has not done so in 8 years, and only when there is crisis.
Quite soon we will witness one of the two things: military putch against clerical leadership, like in Mursi Egypt, or massive purges in Army and IRGC.
I guess massive (>10) purges of popular generals (& colonels) (40%), attempted military coup (30%) (but Suleimani was most likely to pull one off), smaller purge (20%); leaving 10% of other. Plus some 30% chance of mass killing of protesters (>1000), which overlaps others.
The mullahs will follow Erdogan in Turkey and Maduro in Venezuela.
Will Iranian Kurds seek more autonomy, with Iraqi Kurd support?
Will Iraqi Shiites purge pro-Iran Iraqis?
Will the mullahs ask for more Chinese help? Russian help? and get help?
Lots of questions I’m keeping my eyes open for.
Some stupid anti-American provocation, allowing Trump enough to send some more bombs against Iranian targets? (20% in the next 3 months, overlapping others).
I see it as very unlikely Trump sending American soldiers into Iran (1%; until AFTER some regime change).
sdferr — “How about 6 B-52s stationed at Diego Garcia, say? What about that?” — you’re behind the times, my friend: Done a week ago.
https://theaviationist.com/2020/01/07/first-two-of-six-b-52-bombers-deploying-to-diego-garcia-amid-growing-tensions-with-iran/
Richard, I think that was my point: it was done a week ago. The Supreme Leader is fully aware.