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And the proximate cause of Iran’s admission… — 71 Comments

  1. Neo

    Are the writers of the article that easily fooled? Do they really think that grief at Suleimani’s death gripped the whole country? Do they have no idea how these things work in Iran? Or are they just churning out the usual leftist propaganda?
    Or all of the above.

    Recall what speechwriter turned National Security expert Ben Rhodes told us about journalists:they’re 27 years old, have worked only on political campaigns, and literally know nothing.

    Because they “literally know nothing,” they have no knowledge of Iran with which to assess the Mullahs’ narrative of “the entire nation in mourning over the heinous assassination of Salami Man the Revered,” so they merely repeat the narrative the Mullahs hand them.

    I am reminded of the WaPo reporting earlier in the year about electricity outages in Venezuela. The WaPo sent in a reporter much better versed in Mexico or Central America than in Venezuela. When Maduro put forth the preposterous claim that sabotage was the cause of the electricity outages, the intrepid WaPo reporter merely reported what Maduro had said. If the reporter had any knowledge of Venezuela, she would have realized that Venezuela had a decade or so of problems with electricity supply, due to lack of investment and lack of maintenance. Occasionally Chavista officials even blamed iguanas for electrical supply problems! But as the reporter didn’t know anything about Venezuela, she had no knowledge with which to refute Maduro’s preposterous claim about sabotage of the electrical system.

    I would love to have National Security expert Henry Kissinger debate National Security “expert” Ben Rhodes.

  2. All of the above.

    I can understand how serious people can disdain and even fear Donald Trump as President. But every time they indulge, tolerate, or ignore the ridiculous, deceitful, idiotic, and norm-breaking behavior of their own side, they demonstrate how profoundly unserious they truly are.

    Mike

  3. One other thing that has happened by them shooting down a Ukrainian airliner with lots of Canadians, Ukrainians and Iranians on board but no Americans is it means the US can take a backseat on this angle of the conflict.

    They’ve angered a whole new set of people.

  4. the usual leftist propaganda

    Trump made a yuuuuge mistake when he assassinated austere bomb scholar Suleimani. In response, the people of Iran rose up in grief and anger!

    Then some people did something; and now… despite Trump’s criminal blunder… the Iranian people have innocently misdirected their righteous anger at the US President onto the blameless Iranian government, peace be upon them.

  5. Unfortunately, the default response to any news emanating from the following sources is that it is not true and should be approached with EXTREME skepticism, IOW “What do they want us to believe? And why?:
    – Iran
    – MSM
    – Democratic Party
    – Labour Party of the U.K.
    – Palestinians
    – “Progressive” organizations
    – Others….

    (Gosh, I sense a pattern here…. To be sure, it behooves everyone to approach the news with skepticism no matter what the source; but I’m talking here about EXTREME skepticism as the default position.)

    To be sure, some of it might be true (by accident?); but it’s mostly lies—of commission and omission—and “fast and furious” spin. Some of it is puerile and transparent but much of it can be quite clever.

    Palestinian Rules!

  6. It’s possible the ‘journalists’ are — in minor part at least — considering Obama’s legacy, a conjuring to which their own earlier writings may have lent a boost. Haw-har. Egg, faces, some assembly required.

    But of Obabbler’z legacy? Let us take another look!

    Frieda Powers, BizPacReview (Jan 10, 2020): ‘Whistleblower’ calls out John Kerry, says he ‘knows for fact’ Obama admin sent multiple letters directly to Soleimani

    Middle East expert Michael Doran slammed former Secretary of State John Kerry in a series of tweets exposing the Obama administration’s dealings with Iran.

    “I must become a whistleblower,” Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute specializing in Middle East security issues, tweeted Friday in response to a self-serving opinion piece by Kerry published by The New York Times.

    Doran called out Kerry for his op-ed and the “ludicrous and reckless contention” that “diplomacy” with Iran and the nuclear deal negotiated under former President Obama’s watch was working until Trump ruined everything. […]

    Doran called for the media and Congress to “excavate” the Soleimani messages and get on the task of declassifying them as well as “presidential correspondence” to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei and its president Hassan Rouhani.

    “If Trump’s conversation with Zelensky was in need of a public airing, then surely we are justified in seeing the messages to Soleimani,” Doran added, referring to the president’s phone call with the president of Ukraine last year which triggered the Democrats’ impeachment efforts against him. […]

    Doran added another tongue-in-cheek tweet about his “patriotic duty to be a whistleblower” while maintaining that he “must remain anonymous.”

  7. I saw a comment on the earlier thread, late, to the effect that this aircraft was a Boeing. If they could blame it on mechanical failure, this would be another major blow at an American company. This might explain the lying, other than the mullahs’ routine tendency to lie.

  8. If my choice is between ignorance or how things work in Iran and propagandizing, I’m going with the latter. These reporters are not good, well intentioned people.

  9. The interesting part, of course, will be to see what happens next.

    The United States assassinated a top Iranian general and terrorist leader… for an attack that killed ONE American contractor. A precedent has been set, which others can follow (or not), as suits them.

    And now the Iranians have shot down a civilian airliner, killing large numbers of Ukrainians, Canadians, and British non-combatants. Wars have started over less. And, to add insult to injury, the British Ambassador to Iran has not merely been embarrassed… he has been arrested.

    I can imagine some secure phone conversations between Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, about what the latter wants to do to get his Ambassador back.

    I offer a modest suggestion. Send in a commando team to rescue the ambassador, led by a well-seasoned combat officer, Harry Windsor. Win-win.

  10. Alireza Nader, @AlirezaNader: just scroll down his twitter page for video clips of Iran city after city, protest after protest against the Dictator and his storm troopers formerly headed by Soleimani.

  11. All of the above, but combined with an ideological blind spot. These young journalists are convinced (in a religious sense) in the narrative that Trump is the existential threat of their age. They do not experience the cognitive dissonance. They simply do not see the evidence that doesn’t fit the narrative. And, in the blank spots, they fill in “facts” that do.

    One day, psychologists will write books about this mass delusion.

  12. And then Trump sent a Twitter message in Farsi expressing solidarity with the Iranian people. It was the most “liked” Twitter message ever.

  13. These young journalists are convinced (in a religious sense) in the narrative that Trump is the existential threat of their age. They do not experience the cognitive dissonance.

    +1

  14. Neo: Are the writers of the article that easily fooled?

    The standards in journalism are very low these days. This is from the CBC, Canada’s national broadcaster.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-investigators-knew-within-hours-missile-ps752-1.5423957

    Early Saturday morning, Iran made the surprise announcement that one of its elite Republican Guard anti-aircraft batteries had mistakenly fired a missile at the aircraft shortly after it took off.

    They don’t even know the difference between the “elite Republican Guard” and the “elite” Revolutionary Guard. Chris Brown, the authour of this piece is no rookie and is described as, “…a foreign correspondent based in the CBC’s Moscow bureau. Previously a national reporter for CBC News on radio, TV and online…” Not exactly a rookie.

  15. Chris Brown, the authour of this piece is no rookie

    And it got though an editorial layer to boot.

  16. Andy quoting CBC article:

    Early Saturday morning, Iran made the surprise announcement that one of its elite Republican Guard anti-aircraft batteries had mistakenly fired a missile at the aircraft shortly after it took off.

    Does that mean we can blame Saddam Hussein for shooting down the aircraft? 🙂

    Iran,Iraq, what’s the difference? Teheran,Biran,Salaam, they’re all the same.

    I took a screenshot of the CBC article, in the expectation that eventually, even a messed-up news organization and a messed-up journalist will correct the mistake.There is a link for pointing out errors. I will check to find out how long it took to correct their mistake. Or will they correct it?

    I and many others on this site have a rather low opinion of current journalists. Dumb and ignorant, to say the least. Also w ideological blinkers. Back in the day, some prompted by Watergate, bright people became journalists. There were four high school peers of myself and of my brother who went into journalism. Three of them were Merit Finalists. I don’t know about the fourth’s Merit status, but he was also brilliant- though he had problems with school. He dropped out of high school, but later graduated from an Ivy League school. As he wrote a number of books and won some awards for his journalism, he wasn’t chopped liver.

  17. Gringo: … even a messed-up news organization and a messed-up journalist will correct the mistake.

    I wouldn’t hold my breath. The following article was published in mid-December by BBC, England’s national broadcaster who you would think would uphold the English language but read for yourself. The word they are looking for is “rapport”.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/45SlQJ3SgyVJWS2TW0VRWCS/is-the-pub-dead-what-is-happening-to-the-old-boozer

    Good service

    Something else that sets micropubs apart from their larger competitors is the personal service. Peace and her staff know most of their clientele personally.

    “It doesn’t take many visits to establish a good report” says Peace. “We really specifically focus on getting to know people’s names and understanding anything from what type of glass they like to what styles they like.”

  18. “Are the writers of the article that easily fooled?”

    As I recall “doublethink” requires wholehearted, sincere, fervent belief in the face of ludicrous, inconsistent, illogical assertions.

  19. The British ambassador was released after about an hour, so no rescue mission is needed — although getting on a plane to leave Iran is risky in itself.

  20. It matters, whether the shoot-down was really an accident. And whether/how much we know.

    Just as it mattered, that we quickly knew that it was a shoot-down, not just an airplane-crash. We were therefore able to coordinate, internationally, to force Iran off their simple-crash position.

    Protests at the current level seem ‘useful’ to the US, but not conclusive. A lot of it is campus-related, consists of young activists … practicing. This can be very useful … if the general population echos the sentiment.

    If we do know something about how Flight 752 came to be hit by a missile, and it was not just a goof-up by an under-trained operator, but “planned”, then that’s serious leverage that we can use to further our objectives in Iran.

    In the case of the shoot-down evidence, our partner was Ukraine. In the case of establishing intent to commit mass murder, the families of Canadian-Iranians who died in the crash could be our main partner.

    It looks less like an accident, with each news-cycle.

    What we appear to want, is for Tehran leadership to sit down with us. Soon. Make some changes & adjustments, which the rest of the world will (largely) see as worthwhile progress … and which they can live with. Moscow and Beijing may demure … but that’s manageable.

  21. This reminds me what happened in Soviet Union after Chernobyl disaster. Millions of people were disgusted by the transparent lies of official propaganda, and they never again trusted it anymore. The unravelling of Communist regime began with this shock recognition of regime duplicity and mendacity. This is not yet the begining of the end, but hopefully the end of the begining.

  22. Maggie Haberman NYT, on twitter responding to Pres Trump’s tweet warning to the Mullahs they should let their people protest without killing them and “let reporters roam free”: ” ‘Let reporters roam free’ says the president, who routinely refers to the US press as ‘enemy of the people,’ to Iranian leaders”

    Sean Davis replying to Haberman: “Mocking your incompetence and idiocy on Twitter, a task you make easier by the day with aggressive nonsense like this, is exactly like murdering and imprisoning innocent Iranians.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1216426388984664066

  23. The unravelling of Communist regime began with this shock [Chernobyl] recognition of regime duplicity and mendacity.

    Sergey: Is this so? Wasn’t there also a slow, drip-drip-drip, unraveling? Chernobyl was hardly the first set of lies people heard from the government in the USSR. I’ll take your word that Chernobyl was a threshold event, but I hadn’t run into that proposition before.

  24. Sergey … you are Russian? What part, how old? I am a 1970s US Navy nuclear power guy: I always thought it was too bad, as we say, ‘throwing out the graphite reactor baby with the bath-water’. Mismanagement at Chernobyl, maligning an otherwise valuable – and lower-cost – technology.

    If you are younger … I thought the series of (weak, erratic) leaders in the later days of the USSR lost them a lot of support. Being unable to properly handle the reactor-accident was humiliating … but the USA had lost two elite nuclear submarines, complete with 100-man crews, just before I joined in 1970.

  25. Huxley: Yes, Soviet people has heard lot of lies before, but most people were indifferent to them. The numbers of so-called dissidents, thouse who openly criticized the regime, was no more than thousands, and only hundreds were active enough to be imprisoned for this. But after Chernobyl the number of such people rose to millions, and official lies become intolerable to almost everybody.
    Tom Clayton: I live in Moscow and am 72 years old. I remember the fall of Communism quite well, have seen and participated in street protests that at their peak gathered up to 1.5 mln people in Moscow alone.

  26. The reason for public outrage was not the disaster itself, but the lies about it. And the criminal behavior of the leadership: when reactor graphite was still burning, throwing into air lots of radiactive debris, they arranged May day parade in Kiev, with thousands schoolchildren marching the streets in the open air. Kiev is just 20 miles from the disaster site. Nobody knows how many cancers these children developped later in their lives because this exposure.

  27. Sergey:

    Last night right before going to bed, this thought suddenly struck me: Iran right now reminds me somewhat of the USSR in the 80s. I even wrote some notes for a draft of a post about it, which I plan to publish in the next few days.

    I wasn’t thinking specifically of Chernobyl at that point. But I believe you are correct that it was a big factor.

  28. I somehow missed Obama’s and Ben Rhodes’ tweets in Farsi to support the Green Revolution in Iran. Pallets of cash and unfrozen assets for the mullahs; now that’s talking!

    The mullah’s and the recently departed “revered military leader” shot down those protesting for reform. Not a peep from the press nor much of a reaction when the same approach is used today in Iran or Iraq. It is foolish to expect better from the NY Times or the Wa Post.

  29. Thank you Sergey! This is a very telling account. I understand how that could ruin the peoples’ trust in leaders, the system. I am 67.

    Your experience, and willingness to share it, is valued.

    It is good that some improvements have come for Russia, and I hope the future brings much more. While I don’t think of Trump as a cock-holster, I’m hopeful his more-constructive attitude toward Pres. Putin & Russia bears fruit! 😉

  30. The main difference in Iran today and the USSR in the eighties would have to be the religious fanaticism. It seemed to me that the entire operation was out of gas in the Soviet Union by the end whereas in Iran the question has to be is the fanaticism of the mullahs and their true believers still there to fight to the end.

    Maybe they are a small enough number that they can be erased in a revolt but who knows what will come next. The middle east doesn’t have a great track record with these kind of things.

  31. Sergey:

    From your posts it was clear that you were Russian, but not that you were still in Russia. Thank you for your perspective on many topics.

  32. Neo said yesterday: “My sense at this point is that the Iranian authorities are now – like that proverbial stopped clock – caught in a brief and rare moment of telling the truth. Not the whole truth and nothing but the truth, but the truth that they were incompetent and didn’t mean to shoot down a passenger plane loaded with 176 people.

    However, I would never be surprised if more evidence emerges later that shows it was purposeful and the plane was targeted for some reason, because the Iranian leaders are certainly capable of an action such as that if it suits their goals. I just don’t think it was the case this time.”

    Do not be surprised, Neo. The majority of passengers were Iranian expats, people who had turned their backs on mullah rule. Look at the incontrovertible physical evidence in distinguishing between a slowly rising commercial airliner from Tehran airport and a speedy, rapidly descending missile headed toward Tehran. Not a human error, no way.
    The ayatollahs meant it to happen.Someone was aboard that they did not wish to see return, a last seccond discovery, and the other passengers…Ah well.

  33. Neo, viz USSR & Iran.

    Sound like a fertile field to cultivate! As Griffin comments, there are differences, true … also the simple scale of the Soviet Union, and that it was an EU_v1 bureaucracy, on massive steroids.

    Sergey’s insight and deep personal experience is so timely.

  34. Nasrallah gave a big tribute speech to Gen. Soleimani today. Here’s a translation on a Twitter thread by David A. Daoud. It’s long, but that’s what Nasrallah do, so. Still, it’s an interesting read to see his revelations of Soleimani’s role in the Leb. and elsewhere, as well as just the flavor of Hezbollah lunacy and propaganda. So, the link:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidADaoud/status/1214940922452094983

  35. The main difference in Iran today and the USSR in the eighties would have to be the religious fanaticism.

    The main difference would be that Soviet Russia was a command economy whereas Iran is more like a PRI-era Mexican economy with scads of state-owned enterprises (many subsidized) along-side private enterprise.

    I’m willing to wager that after 40 years inanition has largely consumed the sort of fanaticism you once saw. I’m recalling a Czech writer who offered in The New Republic 30 years ago that after about 1965 the only people who took the regime’s ideology seriously were the mentally-disabled and those on the make. Around that time, The New York Times interviewed a woman employed by the Czech writers union. She’d been part of the apparatus producing and distributing gosizdat literature; she said that it had taken her 20 years after the war to understand the world around her. She still supported the Communist Party because she was ‘too old to change’.

  36. The Dems and the media promised me WW3 and all I got was a bunch of innocent non-Americans killed. Trump can’t even start a war right.

  37. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1215621872940978176.html

    John Hayward
    @Doc_0
    Profile picture
    Jan 10th 2020, 9 tweets, 2 min read

    Terrorism only works if you have people like Buttigieg and the other “blame Trump” Democrats working inside civilized nations to legitimize it.

    “Do what we say or the blood will be on YOUR hands” is the core operating principle of all thuggery.

    As soon as you stop holding barbaric regimes 100% responsible for their atrocities, you open the door to insane moral equivalency and ultimately submission. The barbarians will always be happy to create plenty of carnage for us to feel guilty about.
    And that’s the immediate danger created by the “blame Trump” Democrats: they’re giving Iran and other evil regimes incentives to perpetrate more atrocities, knowing the Dems will blame them on Trump and say it’s all America’s fault for not giving the barbarians what they want.
    This kind of weakness – whether born from political opportunism or the Left’s “America Last” philosophy – is extremely provocative. If you tell savages their depredations will be blamed on America, you’ll get more depredations. It would almost be irrational for them to hold back.

  38. In the context of the Know-nothing journalists, proof once again that they don’t recognize satire, or jokes, because all they know is their own narratives.

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/gop-pollster-pranked-anti-trump-journalist-with-j-is-for-genius-joke

    GOP pollster pranked anti-Trump journalist with ‘J is for Genius’ joke by Tim Pearce | January 12, 2020 03:17 PM

    A Vanity Fair correspondent reported a Republican pollster’s joke about President Trump as fact, fooling many on social media into thinking the story was true.

    GOP pollster Frank Luntz told Vanity Fair’s Gabriel Sherman a joke after the two bumped into each other at the Golden Globes award show last week. Luntz joked that at the White House Christmas Party the week before, he had asked Trump what his middle initial, “J,” stood for and that Trump responded by insisting “J” stood for “Genius.”

    Trump’s real middle name is “John.” Luntz has told the joke at numerous public events, parties, and in interviews to get a laugh out of others.

    Sherman was fooled by the joke and reported it as fact on Vanity Fair’s podcast Inside the Hive with Nick Bilton.

    It’s a pretty good joke, actually.

  39. DJT Twitter: *** National Security Adviser suggested today that sanctions & protests have Iran “choked off”, will force them to negotiate. Actually, I couldn’t care less if they negotiate. Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and “don’t kill your protesters.” ***

    New rules Mullahs. Howja like his Calvinball skilz!?

  40. More on the Mike Lee kerfluffle.
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/great-respect-mike-lee-praises-trumps-restraint-following-iran-missile-attacks-after-slamming-briefing

    Trump first said Soleimani was killed due to the “imminent” threat he posed to American lives in the region. More recently, Trump said Soleimani — an officially designated terrorist — was plotting to blow up multiple U.S. embassies in the Middle East. Lee said Sunday he and fellow lawmakers were not told about the threat to the embassies during the briefing.

    “I don’t recall being told that there were four embassies. I’m sure there was a mention of at least one embassy in that briefing because there had been an attack on one of our embassies in the days leading up to general Soleimani’s killing,” the Utah senator said, adding that while he wasn’t pleased to learn of the plots on television, “The problem there is not with the president” but is “with those who were briefing us.”

    What we seem to have had was a tiff about tone & misled expectations, not really a dispute on principle. If the briefing was advertised as a meeting to tell the attendees the reasons for Trump’s order, and those reasons didn’t actually get aired, then I think Lee had probably cause for complaint.

    My take is that Lee perceived the briefers as saying “just trust us and don’t debate our actions” — which he sees as not acceptable rhetoric in a Congressional briefing. However, the President is also absolutely correct not to have sensitive information divulged to most of the Congress at this (or probably any) time.
    They probably should have just skipped the briefing altogether, but that’s not feasible in today’s media whirl.

  41. sdferr on January 12, 2020 at 9:07 pm said:
    DJT Twitter: *** National Security Adviser suggested today that sanctions & protests have Iran “choked off”, will force them to negotiate. Actually, I couldn’t care less if they negotiate. Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and “don’t kill your protesters.” ***

    New rules Mullahs. Howja like his Calvinball skilz!?
    * * *
    Works for me.

    https://nypost.com/2020/01/12/trump-not-isolationist-or-moralizing-interventionist-why-cant-critics-get-that/

    By Rich LowryJanuary 12, 2020 | 8:53pm

    There is no doubt that the operation against Soleimani carried risks, but it didn’t transform Trump into a conventional interventionist. In fact, taking out Soleimani was wholly consistent with the president’s approach to the world, which can’t be plotted on a simple hawk/dove or neo-con/isolationist axis. As a Jacksonian, Trump is none of the above, combining a willingness to whack our enemies with a distaste for ambitious foreign interventions and nation-building enterprises.

    https://amgreatness.com/2020/01/11/of-causation-and-emojis/

    Roger Kimball – January 11th, 2020

    Frances Townsend, a former Homeland Security adviser to President George W. Bush, expressed a thought that will have occurred to many observers. “A country that cannot competently operate its air defense system aspires to possess #nuclear weapons! Really?! Just contemplate that for a moment.”

    https://nypost.com/2020/01/12/its-just-insane-to-blame-trump-for-irans-downing-of-ukrainian-plane/

    By Karol MarkowiczJanuary 12, 2020 | 7:28pm

    It’s hard to imagine that Soleimani would have gotten the same unseemly gushing praise, or Iran the liberal apologetics, had it been Team Obama that had greased him.

    There is a lot of room to be concerned about escalation with Iran without being insane about it. If you reach the point where you’re blaming Trump, and by extension America, for the Tehran regime ­accidentally firing at a passenger jet, it’s long past the time to rethink. Opposing war or the Trump presidency is one thing; making excuses for a leading state sponsor of terror is quite another.

  42. Long on allegations, some very familiar; claims to have facts but doesn’t actually show the evidence, but probably correct.

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/01/treasurys_role_in_financing_iranian_terror.html

    January 11, 2020
    Treasury’s Role in Financing Iranian Terror
    By John A. Cassara
    There are reports that some of the $1.7 billion that Obama gave to Iran as part of the Iran deal or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been traced to Iran-backed terror groups, including Qassem Soleimani’s Quds Force, Iran’s principal foreign intelligence and covert action arm and part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. What is not discussed is that the money could not have been funneled to Iran without active support from actors within the Treasury Department.

    As a former Treasury Special Agent, the suspect actions of some of my ex-colleagues saddens and dismays me. Their actions also hypocritically counter both our anti-money laundering/counter-terrorist finance programs and the international financial systems and safeguards that Treasury worked hard to implement and protect.

    Worth a read.

  43. Ryan Saavedra, Daily Wire:

    “Under normal circumstances, Soleimani’s phone and other electronics would be taken away for forensic analysis. However, the missile strike and ensuing fire made such an investigation impossible,” Fox News added.

    Right. Yeah, sure. Too damaged to be taken away. Believe that, IRGC-QF. Rest easy. You have no US penetration.

    Nyuk-nyuk-nyuk.

  44. Interesting developments this morning. The news reports mention protesting Iranian students shaming others who walked on US and Israel flags drawn on the pavement. However what stuns me is that US and Israel flags WERE drawn on the pavement; and they weren’t small. Each looked to be about 30×50 ft.

    Of course Democrats regularly support flag desecration. Looks like the Iranian protestors have more respect for the US flag than Democrats.

    https://twitter.com/MEMRIReports/status/1216358709892407297

  45. I’m so old that I remember like it was only a week ago that college students broke the Selective Service website worrying about being drafted.

    After all, killing a top military leader of a country we are not at war with is going to ‘open the gates of Hell!”.

    Now this.

  46. When this Iranian regime falls it will be because the Iranian soldiers refuse to murder Iranian protesters, themselves so numerous as to seem to be representatives of “the people”. And the army must also be dis-enchanted with the regime — which has NOT YET happened. In Iran. Nor Venezuela, nor North Korea, nor Cuba.

    I thought it would have happened in Venezuela by now, but it hasn’t, so I’m more wary of predicting it will happen this year 2020 in Iran.

    Other Iranians are being murdered. Things are happening. Predictions for 2020:
    95% – no US led invasion, nor any action of more than 5000 US fighters in Iran.
    30% – mullahs give up nukes, agree with Trump inspections, to reduce sanctions
    20% – army pushes out mullahs for a transitional gov’t. (10%? 5?)

    Thanks, Sergey, for reminding folk about USSR Chernobyl disaster. There were many other ecologic problems, and eco protests against commie economic management was a big issue uniting religious and non-religious anti-commie protesters. China has also seen protests and terrible eco disasters.

    There is a huge mountain of aluminum/ bauxite waste near the big Slovak aluminum producer at Ziar nad Hronom; very visible from the nearby highway.

    Hungary & Slovakia had bad relations after communism ended because of their joint planned Gabcíkovo–Nagymaros-Dam complex on the Danube, which would upset a lot of river life. Also produce lots of low cost hydro power. (I was involved in correcting the English version of much of the Slovak report on this – most boring work ever for me.)

    Recently elected President Zuzana Caputova gained fame thru ecological protesting against a waste site too near a city.

    Ecology remains in people’s minds, but economic issues are also there now, and corruption remains a bigger problem.

    I’m pretty sure most Iranians are more upset at Iranian corruption, but that’s not been something to protest about, tho the corruption provides fuel for popular outrage against the regime. In Iran, or Russia, or Slovakia.
    “What can we do?” “Nothing”. “Nothing will change”.
    “Well, we CAN protest, if enough others do, too…”
    Sir Roger Scruton, RIP, would approve of most protests against the lies.

  47. PhysicsGuy,

    However what stuns me is that US and Israel flags WERE drawn on the pavement; and they weren’t small. Each looked to be about 30×50 ft.

    Yes, that is notable … but be careful.

    In Hong Kong, they have made really (excessively?) overt plays for American support (hoping to eventually cultivate it into intervention). Appealing to the West in Iran is good … but we should not be naive.

    It is for sure notable, that drawing the flags was “allowed” … but keep the context in mind. It’s a nice touch, passing the word, ‘Don’t walk on the flag’!

    The Mullahs want sanctions lifted. Trump says ‘No preconditions’, meaning overtly we won’t go in with a set outcome in mind … but also very much making clear that sanctions stay, until they sit & we talk.

    It’s still early days, but I too am hopeful!

  48. One day I was taking some family on a quick tour of NYC. Unlike other members of my wife’s family, this part was from China proper (not Hong Kong). As we were getting some Nathan’s hot dogs, a large crowd blocked the street and proceeded to do a BLM protest in Union Square. This brought lots of questions as to who allows this, did they have to get permits, and on and on…

    I wish sometimes that the leftists who protest and holler about what they dont like in a free country, would sit with my family members, either old timers from Latvia, or more recent from China/Hong Kong and listen to how, when they win, they will lose that right to protest – and yet, have a lot more things to protest about.

    Video: Iran police shoot at those protesting plane shootdown
    https://apnews.com/1b5f51dc8712b6fcddc2010bbd9de31f

    They do not realize that in each regime that wins the left battle, whether by revolution OR election, the end results are quite the same. The people who care a lot about things (whether thats right or wrong is not important), and are willing to go out (for whatever reason) and make noise over it – become the enemy of the state and a state perfectly willing to shoot at them, or remove them in the dead of night if open action is not conducive.

    Venezuela Forces Killed Thousands, Then Covered It Up, U.N. Says
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/04/world/americas/venezuela-police-abuses.html

    Hong Kong protester shot in street confrontation with police
    Incident was broadcast live on Facebook as protesters blocked traffic following a weekend of chaos across Chinese city.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/11/hong-kong-protester-shot-street-confrontation-police-191111013907715.html
    and we ALL know how many of its own people Russia killed, the satellites killed, and china killed, and pol pot killed and the Khmer rouge killed and Castroites killed. We even know how followers who were trying to make such regimes either killed or tried to kill from the weather underground members robbing a brinks truck to start a black on white race war, or Bader Meinhoff, or even the feminists Rote Zora (as they were a terrorist group too, which explains why they side with them regardless of others beliefs).

    Nothing will wake them up except their being shot and standing around like idiots with such surprise on their face they cant comprehend running.

  49. Stabbing spree in Colorado Springs leaves 8 injured
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/13/us/colorado-springs-stabbings/index.html

    A man did it..
    we dont know why..
    The news no longer reports for fear of what?

    What will the newsies do when things change and they find out that they will write what they are told, and no longer be reporters of the kind that they may have fantasized being that broke stories and told inconvenient facts?

    Didnt they learn anything from Viktor Danilov?
    A parish priest of the Greek Catholic parish in Grodno, dean of the Belarusian Greek Catholic Church, chaplain, writer in Soviet times and religious dissident.

    Made famous as Boris Bazhanov (ergo the western funny bad-in-ov) man under Kruschev the movie nor curiousity tells what happened to him..
    Born in Yaroslavl in 1927 in a family of doctors. In 1947 he entered the Yaroslavl Pedagogical Institute. In 1948 he was arrested for his criticism of Stalin, accused of anti-Soviet propaganda. Danilov was convicted under Articles 58-10 and 58-11 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation to 10 years in labor camp. For preparation of the escape was second conviction for a period of 10 years. During the captivity of prisoners met the priests, to rethink their positions, abandoned Marxism and atheism and accepted Catholicism. In 1955, released under the amnesty.

    like Bella Dodd, he went to the church again…

    as a note Boris Bazhanov was Stalins personal secretary…
    until he too changed… These changers we never discuss!

    Bazhanov was the personal secretary of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin from August 1923 to 1925 and held several prominent secretarial positions in the Politburo until defecting from the Soviet Union in 1928. Bazhanov was granted French citizenship and survived subsequent Soviet assassination attempts, writing and publishing memoirs and books from 1930 about Stalin and the secrets behind the Stalin regime.

    Bazhanov was the only member of Stalin’s Secretariat to defect, and one of the first major defectors from the Eastern Bloc.

    oh.. why did i bring him up?

    On 1 January 1928, Bazhanov defected from the Soviet Union after becoming disillusioned with communism and dissatisfied with working under Stalin.[15] Bazhanov scheduled a business trip to the Soviet Union’s territory in Central Asia and crossed the border into Iran.

    Even then, Russia ran Iran

    for the sake of interest:
    Bazhanov learned that an agreement was reached between Iran and the Soviet Union through diplomatic channels to extradite him back. Bazhanov left his detention and illegally crossed the Iranian-Indian border, from where he moved to France with the help of the British authorities. In October 1929, Stalin ordered assassin Yakov Blumkin to travel via Paris to kill Bazhanov before travelling to the island of Büyükada in Istanbul… With the help of his cousin and GPU informer Arkady Maximov, Blumkin staged a car accident to kill Bazhanov, however the plot failed

    You cant change a pickle back to a cucumber…

  50. showbiz411 has articles, but if you try to comment, they go down the memory hole… perfect soviet style reviews of movies, and perfect display of how nice the comment section is always… you can taste the sour pickles…

  51. physicsguy:

    I read somewhere (don’t have time to look it up now) that the flags are usually part of pro-Iranian-government demonstrations – that Iranian authorities have them drawn on pavement in order for demonstrators to walk on them to show their contempt for them, and that the noteworthy thing here was not the drawing of the flags but that the protestors refused to walk on them.

  52. “More respect for the US flag than Democrats”

    I have nothing but the greatest respect and admiration for the Iranian protestors and their courage. But in all honesty that is not a high bar.

  53. Cicero on January 12, 2020 at 5:04 pm said:

    . . . . The majority of passengers were Iranian expats, people who had turned their backs on mullah rule. Look at the incontrovertible physical evidence in distinguishing between a slowly rising commercial airliner from Tehran airport and a speedy, rapidly descending missile headed toward Tehran. Not a human error, no way. The ayatollahs meant it to happen. Someone was aboard that they did not wish to see return, a last second discovery, and the other passengers…Ah well.

    I, and others, have also been speculating about this.

  54. On that allegation that the DOD listed the option to take out Soleimani as a feint to make other courses of action look more reasonable, Esper said the military never proposes something they aren’t willing & ready to carry out. Now it looks like that option was a strike looking for an opportunity to happen.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trump-authorized-soleimani-strike-in-june-as-potential-response-to-killing-of-americans-report/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=top-bar-latest&utm_term=fourth

    Trump Authorized Soleimani Strike in June As Potential Response to Killing of Americans: Report
    By ZACHARY EVANS January 13, 2020 8:45 AM

    President Trump in June authorized the option of killing senior Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani if Iranian aggression led to the death of Americans, NBC reported on Monday.

    The conditions for an operation targeting Soleimani were that it would be a response to Iran killing Americans, and that the president would have to personally sign off on the order.

    “There have been a number of options presented to the president over the course of time,” a senior administration official told NBC, saying an operation to kill Soleimani was put on the table “some time ago.”

  55. Neo –
    “Iran right now reminds me somewhat of the USSR in the 80s.”

    And the American Left was equally sycophantic to both.

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