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Iran’s deadly demonstrations — 14 Comments

  1. The Iraqi PM has resigned today. Najaf and Karbala Iranian consulates both put to the torch. These are Iraqi Shia strongholds. “Iran go home” is their battle cry.

    Obama chose his “ally” poorly. But then, he’s an idiot, so little wonder.

  2. Michel Foucault in particular was quite enamored of Khomeini, and wrote fawning articles about him in the French press. “Revolution” was such a sacred concept. Any outcome of a revolution had to be good.

  3. I doubt the Iranian regime is of a uniform disposition anymore, or has been for the last two decades. The death of the incumbent mullah-boss (who is 80 years old and has held executive positions for 38 years) might be enough to cause the edifice to come tumbling down.

  4. There is this: “Iran can impose its will now only by massive violence. That might still work for the moment. And the regime has revolution-proofed itself by the construction of an interlocking system of praetorian guards. But the community of true believers is shrinking. Just look at religious observance inside Iran. It’s collapsed. And any real moral authority that the revolution might once have had is gone.”

    And this: “The women’s Basij should be pioneers in this matter,” IRGC commander Ali Fadavi said. “We should have at least five children in the families of the IRGC and Basij members.”

    The IRGC can be sustained only if its women love the deaths of their children sufficiently, as the Palestinians seem to do. And, by the way, how does an economically collapsing society like Iran’s nurture an explosion of infants?

    But I did not know the Muslim call to prayer is now going unheeded in Iran.

  5. Iran has been a troubled place for a long time. The average citizen dislikes or even hates the Mullahs and their regime. Unfortunately, they are not fans of the West either. A new regime in Iran might not be any more friendly to the West than that of the Mullahs. They might at least pretend to not want to eradicate Israel so that they could resume selling their oil.

    I used to be a fan of the book, “The Pentagon’s New Map.” Its thesis was that the West (The Core) would gradually empower the Third World (The Gap) to join the democracies of the world in peaceful prosperity. What I didn’t realize, nor did the author, Thomas P. M. Barnett, is that the Third World really is culturally quite different from the West. Those countries don’t have the institutions or the experience of private property laws backed by courts that we take for granted.

    We believe everyone sees our system as superior, but that’s not true. Many Muslims see our society as irredeemably sinful. Many in Africa have no concept of the government responding to the will of the people or private property laws. Most accept the “Big Man” way of governing and don’t know how to change from that. Most South American countries accept the principle of politicians accepting bribes for favors and other corruption. But many people in South America who do have visions of change believe in Marxist principles not free market capitalism. All these facts have rendered the ideas of “The Pentagon’s New Map” as somewhat naïve. Bringing the Gap into the Core is going to be mission impossible for the foreseeable future.

    Any hope of near term peace and stability in the ME is a fool’s errand. Most ME Muslims hate us and when they aren’t hating on us, they are fighting among themselves. A fight that has been going on since the death of Mohammed. ME oil is not as important to the West as it once was. Much of our involvement there has been to keep the oil flowing. Unfortunately, the revenue from that oil has also made it possible for the Islamist Jihadis to punch above their real weight. I have always held that without money the Muslim terrorists would be nothing but a bunch of rage-aholics wandering in the deserts.

    Anyhow, the demonstrations in the Muslim countries aren’t another “Arab Spring” breaking out. They are people tired of being screwed by their tyrannical rulers. If these tyrants are deposed, they will be replaced by new tyrants. The best we can hope for is that they might be friendly to the West like al Sisi in Egypt is. Best to not get our hopes up of anything positive happening in the ME.

  6. Grim but good analysis, JJ. Agree that the best we can hope for are more like Sisi, we aren’t going to get any Switzerlands in the ME. We don’t have good and bad choices there, just bad and worse. At least we are less dependent on them for oil now with the advent of fracking. I don’t think we can ignore the ME altogether but we need to be very skeptical about risking blood and treasure there in a hopeless attempt to arrange things to our liking.

  7. J.J.: Very well put. When I was learning Spanish I was dismayed to learn that the expression they use for the Inauguration of a politician in office is “Toma de Posesión” or “Taking of Possession”. The very phrase implies ownership of the institution, not stewardship. Of course, such an attitude encourages corruption. A new mayor will immediately plaster their own name and face over every building and vehicle owned by the city. I found it grotesque. The Latinos found it normal.

    There are many places that even admire and appreciate the U.S… but without wishing to emulate it. Different priorities…

  8. Cicero:

    Just look at religious observance inside Iran. It’s collapsed.

    And this: “The women’s Basij should be pioneers in this matter,” IRGC commander Ali Fadavi said. “We should have at least five children in the families of the IRGC and Basij members.”

    IGRG leaders are quite aware of the drop in Iran’s birth rate. The fall in the fertility rate of over 4 births per woman,in only 15 years (1982-1997), is possibly the most drastic fall ever in a country’s fertility rate. China took 24 years to reduce its fertility rate by four children per woman-from 6.384 to 2.309 (1966 to 1990). Colombia, a country whose government didn’t use the coercion inherent in China’s government, took 37 years to similarly reduce its fertility rate from 6.712 to 2.683 (1961 to 1998. For 2017: 1.825).

    Perhaps the Iran-Iraq War convinced Iran’s women they didn’t want to breed cannon fodder for the Mullahs. Or, Iran’s women voted with their wombs. Though I believe that initially the Mullahs encouraged birth control, realizing that a fertility rate of 6 children per woman wasn’t economically sustainable.

    Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
    1982 6.523
    1987 5.748
    1992 3.923
    1997 2.489
    2002 1.922
    2007 1.807
    2012 1.901
    2017 2.116

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

  9. The IRGC et al. were insituted to protect the regime since the national military was not trusted. The IRGC has gotten big enough and important enough to be almost beyond control by the mullahs. If there are mass riots, there is no question that the IRGC could handle that situation, but then the mullahs would effectively be employees or hostages of the IRGC that was selected for brutality, not governance. The mullahs may have noticed that the Papal Offices are well appointed and safe. The mullahs may have to “choose sides” for the upcoming storm.

  10. Gringo: Second the demographics.

    Next to oil wealth, the other reason the Middle East has been troublesome was a bumper crop of young, angry ME males. However, as birthrates drop, ME males age overall and become less dangerous.

    I believe I read that ten or so years ago from Daniel Goldman when he wrote under the pseud, Spengler.

  11. Huxley,

    For humans, war has always been the solution for an excess of angry young males.

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