No Korean deal
For decades, North Korea has been an intractable problem. President after president, both Democratic and Republican, tried and failed to secure a deal that made sense, and yet deals that didn’t make sense were made.
Of course, I’m not sure what deal makes sense when you’re dealing with someone who is willing to break his word and is not dealing in good faith, as North Korea’s leaders (not just one, but two) have both been over many decades. My personal opinion is that Kim Jong-un will only make a bona fide deal if enough pressure (including economic pressure) is brought to bear on him by enough parties (including China) that he sees no alternative to a bona fide deal. And even then, who knows what lurks in the heart and mind of Kim Jong-un?
However, walking away from a deal that is really no deal at all is a necessary move, to show that North Korea is not just going to automatically get the lopsided deal that it wants.
“It was about the sanctions,” Trump said. Pompeo expressed optimism that they would ultimately reach a deal, as did Trump. They are now headed back to the United States.
Here’s Trump’s press conference:
The Democrats staged the Cohen hearings to suggest that Trump will not be around much longer. Kim noticed, as was intended. There may be no deal until the second term. Democrats should be so proud. This worked better than Teddy Kennedy meeting with Breshnev.
This proves that Trump doesn’t place politics ahead of country. A politician like Obama would want a ‘deal’ regardless of how hollow and phony. Of course, that’s what he did with Iran. For politicians, it’s all about their ‘legacy’. It’s all about their ego, which given Trump’s ego is irony writ large. In that, when compared to Obama Trump putting country ahead of political ‘accomplishments’ speaks volumes.
Mike K — you are on target. I wonder how many readers know the facts of Teddy’s attempt to sabotage Reagan.
All should listen to Scott Adams’ periscope for today. It is a real palate cleanser.
It is episode 433 at https://blog.dilbert.com/
Kim overreached, thinking Trump NEEDED a deal because of the Democrat play. And the Democrats overreached as well. If there is a Kim advisor who advocated this mistaken picture, that fellow must be sweating bullets now. Kim will have a long train ride to stew over his loss of face. I understand that the meeting in Vietnam was being reported by the Nork news. Oopsies!
This was embarrassing. The only saving grace for this was Trump walked away. That made this merely cringe-worthy rather than an Obama like horror show. God I wish Ted Cruz were President.
Kim probably wants assurance that he, they (North Korean people), will not be Gaddafied by the next administration.
Perhaps if North Korea was a state-sponsor of international terrorism.
The Democrats staged the Cohen hearings to suggest that Trump will not be around much longer.
Yeah, the multi-trimester warlock hunts and trials probably progress, but do not improve, his negotiating partners’ confidence.
This is a time I think of the ending of “Gross Pointe Blank” in which John Cusack, as Martin Blank, is blazing away with big handguns to save the life of his estranged lover, played by Minnie Driver, and her father from the Bad Guys. At the same time Cusack is trying to explain his faults and propose marriage to Minnie Driver.
The father pokes his head up and says, “He’s got my blessing.”
Trump’s got my blessing too, though he’s not as young and good-looking as John Cusack in 1997.
“To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.”
Kudos for walking away. That’s negotiation 101, if you are not willing to walk away you will get rolled.
“BATNA is a term coined by Roger Fisher and William Ury in their 1981 bestseller, Getting to Yes: Negotiating Without Giving In. It stands for “Best ALTERNATIVE TO a negotiated agreement.” Said another way, it is the best you can do if the other person refuses to negotiate with you–if they tell you to “go jump in a lake!” or “Get lost!” So it is not necessarily your ideal outcome–unless your ideal outcome is something you can get without the cooperation of the other person. It is the best you can do WITHOUT THEM.
BATNAs are critical to negotiation because you cannot make a wise decision about whether to accept a negotiated agreement unless you know what your alternatives are. If you are offered a used car for $7,500, but there’s an even better one at another dealer for $6,500–the $6,500 car is your BATNA. Another term for the same thing is your “walk away point.” If the seller doesn’t drop her price below $6,500, you will WALK AWAY and buy the other car.
Your BATNA “is the only standard which can protect you both from accepting terms that are too unfavorable and from rejecting terms it would be in your interest to accept.” In the simplest terms, if the proposed agreement is better than your BATNA, then you should accept it. If the agreement is not better than your BATNA, then you should reopen negotiations. If you cannot improve the agreement, then you should at least consider withdrawing from the negotiations and pursuing your alternative (though the relational costs of doing that must be considered as well).
Having a good BATNA increases your negotiating power. If you know you have a good alternative, you do not need to concede as much, because you don’t care as much if you get a deal. You can also push the other side harder. If your options are slim or non existent, the other person can make increasing demands, and you’ll likely decide to accept them–because you don’t have a better option, no matter how unattractive the one on the table is becoming. Therefore, it is important to improve your BATNA whenever possible. If you have a strong one, it is worth revealing it to your opponent. If you have a weak one, however, it is better to keep that detail hidden.”
Reagan walked out on Gorbachev in Reykjavik in 1986. Three years later, the Berlin wall fell.
Sometimes the best deal is “no deal.”
I think we don’t understand enough about the power structure in North Korea. Kim clearly wants to hold onto power, but he may be more ready to open up his country than many of his military and government officials. If Kim goes too far, he may be overturned. Our walkaway could give him some ammo against hardliners at home. I am not under any illusions about Kim wanting a democratic free society, but maybe he wants a slightly more modern one that he can take credit for. And we also can’t overlook China’s role in the situation.
I see a lot of people objecting to Trump saying that he thought that Kim did not know of the treatment given to Warmbier.
As I see it, Trump says a lot of things he doesn’t really believe, and that’s part of his negotiating strategy., his schtik.
Maybe Trump thinks that if he butters Kim up enough–says he is a “fine fellow”–it may well give Trump an advantage in negotiations somewhere down the road.
It has been a day since Trump abruptly walked away from negotiations with Kim, and the American press and Democrats in Congress are reporting positively on what has happened. That must rankle several Democrats who have announced their intention to run for the White House. As of right now I am thinking Trump’s “walkaway” is playing in America better than anyone might have expected. Good.
Folks it’s well to remember that Kim’s dad established a ‘gifting engine’ at the heart of his politics.
His son is still stuck with it.
What does this entail? Kim HAS TO GIVE ‘presents’ to his loyalists straight through the year. That’s right — EVERY DAY Kim is handing out goodies to his crowd.
Now imagine what might happen if Kim CAN’T carry on the gifting?
You guessed it: mutterings.
These gifts are ALWAYS imported goods. Nothing else would count… unless it’s a new apartment in Pyongyang.
NOW you can understand why Kim is always concerned about obtaining hard money — which he will spend in Europe. Yes, he has a buying office in Vienna dedicated to this mission.
You can go to Utube and Bing around for a full hour video about this wierd tic. The dope comes straight from a dude who used to run it. (!)
Until he blabbed, no-one on the outside had any grasp of what was going on… the scale of the project.
Kim’s game plan was to retail atomics to America so that he could then convert the receipts into ever more ‘gifts’ to his crowd.
Trump is putting pressure on Kim — by tariffs on Red China. That’s why the tariff date was pushed back a month. This is a three-way negotiation — and Kim is the minor player.
Don’t expect ANY reduction in tariffs until Kim is brought to heel.
Start thinking in terms of years and many, many more tariff bumps.
For both Xi and Kim are gagging on the trend.
The USA does not dominate the volume trade with Red China.
She dominates the PROFIT trade with Red China. Something like 80% of all of Red China’s profit is due to products ultimately retailing into the USA.
This stat is totally lost on the talking heads of the MSM… dunces every last one.
The reason why the USA is THE market that every world manufacturer wants is that Americans can pay the price. Most nations are TOO POOR to pay up. The desire is there. The wallet is not.
This really shows up in stuff like pharmacuticals.
It also shows up in software — where most of the planet has to live with software that is two generations — even more — behind that of the USA.
The average income of Swedes places them below that of America’s poorest states. And they are supposed to be wealthy by European standards.
European visitors are always agog over the huge home sizes that are typical in the USA. They are even more agog to see the ‘toys’ that those on welfare have in their homes. (4k flat screen TVs being an in your face example.)
Don Surber has an interesting take on the Hanoi summit. He posits that the real audience for this meeting was China’s Xi and that the attention to sanctions on North Korea really has to do with tariffs (aka sanctions) regarding the trade talks with China.
https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2019/03/trump-walked-away-as-warning-to-red.html#more
There are a couple of pieces at Politico that are not total devoted to Trump-bashing:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/03/01/trump-north-korea-summit-reykjavik-225513
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/28/trump-north-korea-summit-1195227
Snow on pine,
You are right, Trump was trying to keep Kim happy by a means that cost him nothing. If you want an agreement, a serious one (not like O;s Iran deal) you don’t lean across the table and accuse him of being a murderer, regardless of the fact that he is one.
There seems to be hardly anyone among our political and chattering classes who has the faintest idea of negotiating. No wonder they can’t understand what Trump does.
“There seems to be hardly anyone among our political and chattering classes who has the faintest idea of negotiating.” [Michael Lonie @12.09 pm ]
While I think that is certainly true, I think the other prime operative is any excuse to find a reason to criticize Trump, his administration, and any of his actions. I’ve said before, if Trump walked on water, the headlines would be: “Trump can’t swim!”
From this Op-Ed from The Hill:
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/432329-when-no-north-korean-deal-is-the-best-deal