Election Day open thread
[BUMPED UP: I’m bumping this post up to the top for now, so please scroll down to see the newer posts. After the polls close in the east and returns begin, I’ll be starting a new Election 2018 thread.]
It’s Election Day, 2018.
I’m tense. And you?
I’m sure I don’t have to remind you to get out and vote.
I’m trying to remember whether I ever failed to vote in a midterm election back when I was relatively non-political. The answer is “maybe.” I know that I always voted in presidential years, and I’m pretty sure the same was true for midterms, but I can’t be sure.
No senators up for election in Ky and our rep is a shoe-in for re-election. Lots of local races. Turn out was quite heavy when I voted early this afternoon.
Let’s get this thing started on the right foot…and put it all in perspective:
http://ihearthorses.com/teen-risks-his-life-to-save-14-clydesdales-from-barn-fire/
And a special bonus for yer voting pleasure (H/T: “RealClear….”):
https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/50-shades-of-abraham-lincoln-2/
(Aside from that, everyone take a breath and exhale slowly….and let us remember to count our blessings—one of which is this blog….and all its commentators…)
Here in NC we have no senate race, and no governor to elect, and yet early voting was very high (30%). My neighbor who was at the polls at about 10:30 this morning says it was busy, with turnout to that point already one-third of what it was in 2016. Our precinct went heavily for Trump. Fingers crossed.
I voted first thing when the polls opened, at the same location where I went with my father when I was 18 and he showed me the ropes. I have voted in all but 2 small-issue elections since that time. Here in the San Fernando Valley (Los Angeles county) I am amazed at the nonsense that has been arising in the last couple years. It used to be so straight-forward. Now, I can depend on witnessing issues regarding “provisional ballots”, names not on the roll, address discrepancies and on and on. Oh and not sure this is every polling place, but the ballots in all kinds of languages. Internally I am shaking my head and thinking that our society is becoming dumber and dumber as time goes on!
Saw this several days ago, so I present it as the lighter side for all readers here.
If the Democrats take control of the House, Trump will be impeached. If Trump is impeached:
It would almost be worth giving up control of the house to see this happen. Almost.
Please be sure to vote, if you have not already done so.
Here in traditionally Republican DuPage county the line was outside the door at the voting place when we voted this morning.
I’ve never seen that before so I don’t know if it’s good or bad. I’m hoping it is a portent of a Red Tsunami.
That’s great, T. Except that if Trump is impeached, the Senate will not convict, and he will stay right where he is. 🙂
Kate,
Yeah! I know, but it’s a fun fantasy nonetheless. Posted just for laughs.
Voted by mail here in California. It isn’t the same as actually going to the polls in semi-rural Virginia, where the atmosphere was almost festive. Of course going to my old polling place might not be the same either because there has been a continuing influx into the area from the DC suburbs. (I once overheard two women talking about how backward the area was compared to where they came from. Refrained from suggesting that they just go just back and leave us in peace.)
Flew from SoCal to Portland, Or over the weekend, and there was a man–late middle aged or older–on the plane wearing a MAGA hat. Didn’t get a chance to congratulate him on his courage for flaunting his colors in decidedly hostile territory.
The rancor between the two parties is so bad that I’ll expect every Republican elected president, and even some Dems, there will be drum beats for Impeachment.
democrats will need 60% of vote to flip house. thanks to gerrymandering and constitutional structuring to protect slave states that lets 18% of voters control 52 senate seats. this favors republicans. if majority democrat voters only get minority results again unlike 2016 they may not say this time thank you sir may I have another!
I voted this morning after class in the U New Mexico student union.
A grizzled Navy veteran gave me instructions and my ballot. I didn’t have my voter card, because I registered late and it hadn’t arrived. But he was happy to take my driver’s license and look me up that way. He asked me to repeat my address as a check.
I must say it seemed a more serious operation than my experiences in San Francisco where you showed up at someone’s garage, said you were so-and-so and if so-and-so was on the list, you signed on the line and you got to vote.
In Arizona 80% have voted by absentee. I was calling voters yesterday as a volunteer for the AZ CD 2 race. It’s an open seat which was held by McSally before she ran for the Senate. The GOP candidate is a local (40 years) businesswoman who is Hispanic. The Democrats’ candidate is a professional pol from northern Arizona. Every GOP voter I reached said they had voted the straight ticket. The ones who hung up on me, I assume, were Democrats. In southern AZ, Democrats cluster around the University.
thinking that our society is becoming dumber and dumber as time goes on
That’ll be Re-Education Camp for you, Miss. Not dumber, better. Not more crooked, more equal! Incredibly more equal!! Not screwier, wonderfuller!!! Repeat 150,000x and present yourself to the Kommissar in two years for mental review.
…unlike 2016 they may not say this time thank you sir may I have another!
wammo: That’s hardly my impression of Democrats’ reactions after the 2016 elections. So what’s next — armed insurrection?
Seriously.
Speaking of screwier, I am still going with my forecast that Republicans-gain-2-seats more in holding House majority. Senate definitely some pickups. So Tuvea’s report from DuPage County sounds good! Roll on Tide.
if majority democrat voters only get minority results again unlike 2016 they may not say this time thank you sir may I have another! –wammo
What will they do instead? Attack Republicans in the street and restaurants? Shoot them on the ballfield? Smear a judicial nominee with phony charges? Ne – ver.
All mail in or drop off ballots here, no polling places, so these days I’m just mailing it in 🙂 I do miss seeing neighbors and acquaintances at the polls and the sense of participating in a great American tradition.
Chuck:
I agree, here in easten WA it was good to go to the local polling place. Does vote by mail allow for easier fraud by Dem? Just asking. “Badges? We don’t need no stinkin’ badges!” (or ID).
I think this election is more a referendum on Democrats’ embrace of insanity than it is a referendum on Trump.
Gov race in CT and I went early in the morning at my poll, instead of late in the afternoon. At approximately 7:15 I was the 300th to vote, so could be a strong turnout day since usually the 6:30 to 7:00 p.m. only 7-800 have voted. Will be interesting to see, WTIC reports turnout at 21% which sounds like a normal turnout to me, but who knows
I think Stan Brown is correct, but also believe in the power of voter fraud by the Democrats.
@om
The ballots are only mailed to registered voters, but like everything else, I suppose the prevalence of election fraud depends on the honesty of the election officials. I see no reason to distrust the local officials here.
Chuck:
Around the sound I’m not so sure, “found’ ballots and all that have tended to occur when races are close. It ain’t cheating if you can’t prove it. As has been said what matters is who counts the votes?
I’m confident. Heavy turnout in Omaha. Reposting below yesterday’s prediction.
GOP holds the House. Massive win in the Senate. James wins MI. Hugin wins NJ. Scott wins FL. McSally wins AZ. GOP wins MO, IN and WV. Deb Fisher beats my Creighton classmate by 30 points. My high school classmate loses the Governor’s race by a similar margin.
News readers on CNN and MSNBC breakdown on air. Justice Brett Kavanaugh has dunked all over the Dems.
The Republic is saved. Cornhead has spoken!
Cornhead:
I have to say that you have creds, from 2016.
I hope you’re right this time. As for me, I’m very nervous.
Cornhead,
From your lips to God’s ears!
Also has anyone else here seen the poll listed by Don Surber (link below) from a polling company called StatesPoll. It is predicting a GOP House (223 to 209 Dem) and a GOP Senate (55 to 45 Dem).
Their apparent claim to fame is, like Cornhead’s, that they called 2016 correctly (315 electoral Trump votes predicted vs. 306 Trump EVs received). I don’t mean this as confirmation bias, but again, “From their lips . . . .”
FYI, the link:
https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2018/11/trump-built-this.html#more
I have never understood the support for Sinema in AZ. Maybe it was just the media. I guess we will find out this evening. Also, I have read a couple of comments that Cox might surprise California. I have read that Jerry Brown, old Moonbeam himself, is not happy with Newsom. Brown has been a relative conservative on legislation and he supposedly fears Newsom would let the lefty legislature run wild to help a possible Presidential bid in 20120 or 2024.
Maybe it’s living in Blue Washington but I just don’t see a good outcome for Republicans.
I live in CO. We have mail in ballots, but if you haven’t mailed it or dropped in a ballot box you can vote at polling station. We are going to be very Blue tomorrow, and I will be blue. Higher taxes coming down the pike fast.
I don’t believe that the Rep will hold the house but Dems will not win big.
Hope they shoot themselves in the you know what with all the things they will be throwing at Trump, but it will only make the Rep in Rep areas vote and Dems in Dem areas vote the same way again.
Belmont Club’s latest just out:
https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/not-one-step-back-comrades/
I am even more optimistic than Cornhead, I agree with all those and predict Geoff Diehl will beat Elizabeth Warren.
Just used the edit feature for the first time. Very cool!
Just another report, from a small Alabama town, red town in a red county in a red state. The town is atypical because it’s very picturesque and just generally a great place and has gone from fairly average small southern town to super-gentrified in a generation. There is of course a certain tension between natives and newcomers, and between people I’d like to call yuppies–affluent, young-to-middle-aged–and older, less well-off and less…stylish, shall we say…people. The yups tend to be politically liberal of course. One of them is running for the state House and has obviously outspent the incumbent many times over.
I have *never* seen such crowds at the polls. A big part of this is that there’s a move to change the form of the city government on the ballot, and I think people are very divided about it and are eager to vote on it. But that’s not all of it. As my wife said a few days ago, the Democrats smell blood, thanks in part to the Roy Moore debacle. They have been extremely active state-wide, more than they have been for decades. I have no idea how it’s going to turn out. I would say though that if the Dems do gain big here it will be a bad sign for the Republicans nationwide. I mean–it’s Alabama.
With respect to Fernandez, I read his every column and am friends on facebook. He is looking at the left which seems to be inching toward fascism while they accuse the right.
“The dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States and yet lands only in Europe.”
? Tom Wolfe
With respect to Fernandez, I read his every column and am friends on facebook. He is looking at the left which seems to be inching toward fascism while they accuse the right.
“The dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States and yet lands only in Europe.”
– Tom Wolfe
The comments function is accusing me of posting too fast. Bug ?
“The dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States and yet lands only in Europe.”
Hmm, Wilson was arguably the first fascist head of state.
The thing about the 2016 election is that many, many Trump voters did not think he would win. Half the Republican party opposed him. But those people went out and voted for him anyway. They voted from the heart, from a deep internal conviction, or maybe because they hated the MsM, or maybe because Hillary was unthinkable. And then, in the wee hours of the morning, when we realized Trump was actually going to win, there was a sense of disbelief, rapidly overcome by sheer joy.
Point being, despite the odds, those people had voted for Trump, and he has performed remarkably. I think all of those same people from 2016 are voting straight R today. Every reason they had for voting for Trump in 2016 has been amplified many-fold in the ensuing two years. The 2016 voters will keep the House in Republican hands.
The reason why I am confident is that many blue collar Dems have seen the success of Trump. If they didn’t vote for him in 2016, this is their chance. The other things are Kavanaugh and caravans.
I just got back from voting in the evening. It struck me that at the polling place to which I’ve been going for a number of years now, I always seem to park in about the same spot. We don’t have a straight-ticket option, so I spent a few extra minutes making all of the ovals, which is actually a relaxing activity. For one or two of the offices, there wasn’t a non-left choice, so I left those blank. There was one other with only three different candidates, two of which were Dems, and the instruction was to vote for any two, so I had to grit my teeth on that one.
No certain idea how things will go here, but the people I vote for usually lose horribly, so it’s probably going to turn out as usual. But I don’t know – maybe the winning margin will be smaller than usual. The Town Council tally might perhaps surprise me.
@ MikeK – A favorite quote of mine. the origins are here: https://assistantvillageidiot.blogspot.com/2013/01/revel-to-wolfe-to-volokh.html
Goffstown was slow and boring by 8:15am, but it usually is. It’s only busy and crowded when people are trying to get to work or get home from work.
Full employment? Bah. I want free stuff; and you to pay for my health care. It’s my right, and your duty.
Here in Michigan we’re watching the James/Stabenow race. John James went in 20+ behind but now within the margin of error.
For the first time, I’ve put up yard signs, volunteered, etc. A 37 year-old African-American West Point graduate, Iraq War veteran veteran, business owner, charismatic speaker, etc. Win or lose, John will be a rising star in the conservative movement.
Chris – I donated to the James campaign and had them send the ball cap to a friend in the state. He wore it all around and got positive comments.
I donated to 12 campaigns since I didn’t have a local race that was close. It will be interesting to see how many win. I’m hoping for at least a 75% win percentage.
Our beloved governor, Paul LePage of the great State of Maine, has announced that he will be moving to Florida once he leaves the Blaine House in Augusta at the end of his term in January 2019. He’s 70 years old, wants to retire, and hates the thought of even visiting Washington, DC. Besides that, there is no state income tax in Florida, unlike Maine’s top rate of 7%.
In a way, Paul LePage is like a throwback to earlier generations of citizen-politicians, a welcome change from overly ambitious careerists. We should all wish him well in his retirement.
Voted late in my area. Even with significant early voting, election personnel told me turnout was high.
Illinios votes in Pritzker. Race wasn’t even close. Illinois succumbs back to its Dem voting ways.
stan Brown on November 6, 2018 at 3:18 pm at 3:18 pm said:
I think this election is more a referendum on Democrats’ embrace of insanity than it is a referendum on Trump.
* * *
And unfortunately there are a lot of voters who embrace the embrace.
In CA the insane have been running the asylum for years.