Wily old Trump
How clever is Trump?
(1) he’s a moron or worse
(2) he’s a bit slow
(3) he’s of barely-average intelligence
(4) he’s smart but is in way over his head
(5) he’s quite intelligent but likes to hide it
(6) he’s sharp as a tack in certain areas
(7) he’s playing at least 5-dimensional chess
Trump’s stance on Europe and tariffs is certainly looking pretty smart so far.
And the Chinese seem to think the answer is #7. See this and this for an explanation. Excerpt:
In Chinese eyes, Mr Trump’s response is a form of “creative destruction”. He is systematically destroying the existing institutions — from the World Trade Organization and the North American Free Trade Agreement to Nato and the Iran nuclear deal — as a first step towards renegotiating the world order on terms more favourable to Washington.
Once the order is destroyed, the Chinese elite believes, Mr Trump will move to stage two: renegotiating America’s relationship with other powers. Because the US is still the most powerful country in the world, it will be able to negotiate with other countries from a position of strength if it deals with them one at a time rather than through multilateral institutions that empower the weak at the expense of the strong.
My interlocutors say that Mr Trump is the US first president for more than 40 years to bash China on three fronts simultaneously: trade, military and ideology. They describe him as a master tactician, focusing on one issue at a time, and extracting as many concessions as he can. They speak of the skilful way Mr Trump has treated President Xi Jinping. “Look at how he handled North Korea,” one says. “He got Xi Jinping to agree to UN sanctions [half a dozen] times, creating an economic stranglehold on the country. China almost turned North Korea into a sworn enemy of the country.” But they also see him as a strategist, willing to declare a truce in each area when there are no more concessions to be had, and then start again with a new front.
For the Chinese, even Mr Trump’s sycophantic press conference with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, in Helsinki had a strategic purpose. They see it as Henry Kissinger in reverse. In 1972, the US nudged China off the Soviet axis in order to put pressure on its real rival, the Soviet Union. Today Mr Trump is reaching out to Russia in order to isolate China.
I’ll tell you one thing: I certainly hope the Chinese are correct about Trump’s abilities.
[NOTE: I see that the entire cut-and-pasted quote doesn’t have double spaces between paragraphs. That’s a little glitch here at the new site. I will try to get that fixed ASAP.
UPDATE: Paragraphing has been fixed. For now, anyway.]
I think this new-found respect from China for the US started with those 59 tomahawk missiles over a nice piece of chocolate cake.
It remembered. Good for you! Did you leave WordPress blogging software ?
Trump is the Joseph Schumpeter of politics.
I hope that assessment isn’t a puffing up of Trump as part of some wily strategy on the part of the Chinese.
Mike K:
It’s still on WordPress, with a new theme customized to look something like the old one. But the new one should be easier to fix, and work better on phones and pads.
I had to hire a web developer to do this, including a transfer of the old content (and comments as well) to the new. It wasn’t easy; most developers either didn’t answer or responded that they had no interest in a job of that nature.
Just my opinion, but I’ve come to think that Trump actually counts on being viewed as not-so-smart and unpredictable and that this has always been a part of Trump’s negotiating strategy. If I were negotiating with Trump and noticed a point that he overlooked or somehow got wrong, my own knee-jerk reaction would be to immediately wonder if that is what he wanted me to think in the first place. Intentional or not, either way, he’d have me on the defensive.
T:
I agree that Trump is somewhat of a hustler in that respect.
The Chinese seem to think he could run the table.
The visionary Ayn Rand, in a 1972 statement, presaged a socio-political event such as the Trump phenomenon: “It would not act as a motor of freedom, but as a brake on total regimentation. … It would act as a temporary impediment to intellectual monopolies, a retarder of the Establishment’s takeover, a breach in the mental lethargy of the status quo, and, occasionally, an opening for a brilliant dissenter who would know how to make it count.”
Trump is only human but he has long prospered by his counterparties’ underestimation of his abilities and strategies. My guess is, he is certainly a #5 and may be a #7. He is a paradox: a total narcissist who happily makes a fool of himself? Or a completely self-suppressing ego who plays the narcissist who plays the fool?
In negotiation you want to create room to maneuver. When Trump comes into a room ostensibly to make a deal, he seems to start by denying there is even a room, let alone a table around which to sit, let alone a fixed shape to the table, let alone a seating order. And so on. He wearies and befuddles his counterparties, winnows their strength to a few supremely seasoned players, and he never never never stops. Even when the deal is “done,” it is just beginning.
Our media and establishment are as wearied and befuddled by this as his counterparties. He is…too much work. He is…not “one of us.”
But boy, does he break up the old patterns.
I asked about the blogging software because Chicagoboyz, where I hang out more, had the same problem with cookies or whatever the cause of the lost ID was, and the new site seems to be fixed.
Neo,
An interesting choice of words, “hustler.” Now as we both know, it ultimately means someone who “hustles.” As we also know, it carries a certain pejorative connotation. I wonder first, if such a perception exists; I’ve heard Trump called many things, but not a “hustler.” Second, what might this perception contribute to the bien pensant attitude of Trump as a miscreant and boor?
“. . . he never never never stops.” [Owen @ 3:00p,]
I think that this is a hallmark of his success. Like a surf beating against a rocky shore, there might be a certain sense of inevitability to it.
I’m getting interested in the “Qchan,” which is the current WaPo boogy man.
They call it “QAnon.”
Here is a primer on it.
More conspiracy theories. Which are true ?
I willl go with (6). Trump keeps his opponents of balance and uncertain about his next move. Will he double or triple down on his demands? Which of his positions is his actual goal? Only The Donald knows. Plus, he is a master at trolling the domestic left. Their confused outrage is a joy to behold. So far I am satisfied.
(Ijust go a preview error notification.)
T:
I used the word “hustler” in a very specific way: the game of pool. Or billiards. Or whatever it’s called. Have you ever seen the Paul Newman movie? A hustler is someone who fools people into thinking he is less skilled than he is, and so they bet against him. Then he wins because he’s in reality extremely skillful. He has to do it carefully, though, so they won’t catch on that he’s hustling them, or they get angry (in the movie, they break his thumbs).
Neo: “Have you ever seen the Paul Newman movie?” Yes! It should be required viewing for anybody who plans ever to engage in negotiation.
Which would be everybody.
Neo,
I did understand and I wasn’t criticizing its use. I don’t think that my point disagrees with this example. I think many people see this kind of behavior as, at the very least, less than honest, even though some might defend it by saying is just a matter of not letting your opponents know what you’re up to (again, war strategy, disinformation, military academy, Patton).
And yes, I did see the movie. great performances by Newman, Gleason, and George C. Scott (who, coincidentally played Patton).
T:
Oh, it’s definitely “less than honest.” That’s an understatement. It’s a form of con–in Trump’s case, a rather mild and not illegal con.
I loved that movie, even though I was very young when I first saw it. But I saw it again a year or two ago and it was very very dark (and I don’t mean the print or the black-and-white. I mean the plot).
And please, please, don’t forget Piper Laurie. Everyone was very very good. But she was very very good as well.
My new new place 🙂
I do not think Trump is playing 5-dimensional chess.
My thoughts are that he could be doing ALL of those things and be articulate (like Jordan Peterson). I think Jordan is playing 5 dimensional chess.
As I told my friend BEFORE the election, I don’t like Trump because I believe he will destroy the conservative brand. We have already been misdefined. Now it’s even worse.
I like Trump for the fact that he is working HARD for the American people in about 10 different areas at once. I don’t know why the judiary activism can’t be quashed when they have specific judges blocking national policies that they don’t have standing on.
Taxes and tariffs and deals ? Good
Articulate appropriately? Not so good
Certain former US presidents were bribed (influenced, lobbied, what have you) by China. Trump either didn’t take the bribes or didn’t stay bought.
Trump is clearly at least a 5. Is he a 7? Compared to most of his critics, yes. Compared to the press, he’s an 8, since he plays them like a violin, making them look like idiots while they think they are coming out ahead. They are only winning to people who would never accept Trump.
I think #5 is an interesting point. As thin-skinned as he supposedly is, he is clearly willing to make himself look bad or foolish for whatever reason. I really believe that when this kind of thing happens, it’s usually on purpose. The one thing I picked up on right away (and liked about him) was that he was clearly able to use judo on the press and other public figures.
I’m also reminded of the explanation (I think I read it here), that his supporters take him seriously, but not literally, whereas his detractors take him seriously but not literally. Almost every public person can be taken in either one of these ways (certainly Obama could), but the press in their sheer bullheadedness will always interpret anything he says in the worst light possible.
The one thing he never does, and he’s almost unique in this regard, is not try to win the press over. So much energy is wasted by so many Republicans trying to accomplish that Sisyphean deed, and it seems only Trump realizes how useless it is. Actually, Ted Cruz must realize it, too, and he’s definitely a 6, and probably a 7.
The new blog format looks fine (although I felt there was nothing wrong with the old one). Congratulations on the switchover. I know it was a lot of hard work for you and your web guy.
@Baklava: Trump hasn’t done anything to the conservative brand that wouldn’t have happened anyway. My proof? Look what the press did to Romney. Trump made their jobs a little easier (at least in their minds), but he hasn’t changed anything they would be doing otherwise.
The word that comes to mind is “canny”.
I suspect Trump has a high “emotional intelligence” IQ. He gets what motivates people.
Trump doesn’t seem to be bothered all that much here . . .
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=obama+making+fun+of+trump+at+dinner&go=Search&qs=ds&form=QBVR
Whoever said the Chinese are not sufficiently intelligent, that guy is dumb, Dumb, DUMB.
ConceptJunkie,
I disagree. There is no way to plow through the wasteland of his comments directed at Hiedi’s (Klum and Romney), Carli Fiorina, etc (I’m not going to go on).
He dug his own hole and now people have to be brave enough like Kim Kardashian to say, “I have nothing bad to say”.
The only people who can dig us out of this hole are people on the intellectual dark web, bringing an elevated set of ideas to pop culture like Kanye and others.
I have hope because I see so many black Americans standing up, creating #walkaway videos and maybe influencing people. The walkaway videos include homesexual, many ex-Democrats, just so many people coming and saying the Democrats have gotten extreme. That isn’t anything Trump did. It’s just that the left cannot stop themselves from not looking sane.
If Democrats lose seats this fall it will be from their own doing.
Remember Peter Falk as “Columbo?” The villians he trapped were arrogant elitists who looked down their noses at this scruffy, un-sophisticated rube. And then he locked them up.
I see him more as a Used Car Salesman myself.
IMO – Trump looks at every issue as a persuasion point. Can it help me get to the closing of the deal? The deal for him, is what he thinks is best for america, which from his actions appear to be quite conservative (I am totally shocked over this) but is Strong Military, Strong Business and stop stealing our money.
I think it’s a combination of the sharp as a tack in certain areas option + Hyper New Animal in the Forest. He’s doing so much all at once that world leaders (and our own media/disloyal opposition) find it hard to keep up and recalibrate where their interests lie each day + he does not care what they think.
Reagan was known to have said, “There is no limit to what a man can accomplish if he doesn’t mind who gets the credit.” President Trump operates under the banner that, “There is no limit to what a man can accomplish if he doesn’t mind be thought an ignoramus.”
Skilly:
You know, I think you’ve hit on something.
Seriously, someone should suggest Trump wear a T-shirt or hat with that saying on it. It’s got everything: it would drive his critics nuts, it has a Reagan reference, and it makes sense.
Baklava,
“articulate appropriately”? 😉 That is definitely not djt. Bottom line, he doesn’t do appropriately. Results matter, not being appropriate. I was a big djt critic. I mistrusted his intentions. He was very crude in his tactics. But once he secured the nomination the choice was obvious.
He remains bombastic, he is not what he are told is ‘presidential’. Frankly my dear I don’t give a damn anymore. He has thoroughly rattled the corrupt DC cage of rats. He has the media from California and the rest of the 49 setting their hair on fire. Masks have been removed. He has more than exceeded my best expectations.
He is the polar opposite of bho or hcr. He loves our country. Refreshing as far as I am concerned.
Parker,
LOL. I don’t do appropriate either. Maybe I’ve been watching too much Jordan Peterson. Every week there is some hour long video and I’m riveted.
BTW, I voted for Trump. I’m not a never Trumper. I’ll vote for him again if he is the nominee. These socialists are dangerous, the non-science intersectionality, bad logic, bad ethics, hate filled left is the worst breed of people I know. I could never do business with them, vote for them, talk nice about them. The more I learn the more I think we all need to treat each other with respect, as an individual, look to empirical data, I could go on.
“…but I’ve come to think that Trump actually counts on being viewed as not-so-smart and unpredictable and that this has always been a part of Trump’s negotiating strategy…”
I think it was Len Deighton who wrote (in the voice of one of his characters) that the smartest thing a spy could do was to act stupid, and make that impression stick.
The Chinese are pretty savvy when it comes to geopolitics and do not suffer fools gladly, and if they think Trump is a five dimensional chess genius, I’d be very hesitant to dismiss that.
And I do think he’s in that same area code, yes. In fact I find it humorous how many people think Trump is a moron. Yeah, sure, that must be how he built a global real estate empire after dealing with NYC insane zoning laws, politicians, bankers, and other property owners and CEOs, and is now worth $10B or more. Right. That happens **all** the time.
I think it was Len Deighton who wrote (in the voice of one of his characters) that the smartest thing a spy could do was to act stupid, and make that impression stick.
Sonny Wayze: I believe that was Deighton’s “An Expensive Place to Die.” I happened to read it a few years ago while traveling. It was OK, but someone new to Deighton’s spy novels would be better off with “The Ipcress File” or zooming ahead to the Samson series.
I give Trump a (5) and a (6). Plus he’s got a good beat you can dance to.
Game theory suggests that a bit of randomness can improve the expected value in many “games”. Trump has just enough chaos in his approach that he keeps the other strategies from working to best effect against him.
He also seems to have a faster OODA loop than the other guys. See also previous point.
Finally, he has enough business in him that he’ll ask for what he wants. He doesn’t do the smarmy passive aggressive diplo speak. He says, we want X. Again, back to the first point, the other side isn’t sure, but we could do that without looking bad, so why not? And so Trump gets some actual tangible results.
Not so long ago in neo land, we here would debate the simple this-or-that with regard to President Hopenchange:
(1) he’s a fool
(2) he’s a knave
With President Trump, we get to choose from among seven:
(1) he’s a moron or worse
(2) he’s a bit slow
(3) he’s of barely-average intelligence
(4) he’s smart but is in way over his head
(5) he’s quite intelligent but likes to hide it
(6) he’s sharp as a tack in certain areas
(7) he’s playing at least 5-dimensional chess
I say occasionally (4) but usually (6).
I would argue that our Creator endowed us with certain ineradicable characteristics, among them obnoxiousness, effrontery and the ability to relentlessly mock fools. Jordan Peterson is a wonder, far better than we deserve, but he is merely exasperated with the self destruction of our culture. Trump is tirelessly trolling the neo Marxists and their ‘capitalist running dogs’ in the GOPe, Silicon Valley, and Starbucks.
Finally, he has enough business in him that he’ll ask for what he wants. He doesn’t do the smarmy passive aggressive diplo speak.
I can’t speak to the fancy Chinese negotiating, but in line with Kristian Holvoet’s comment, I’d say much of Trump’s effectiveness has been the unabashed commonsense of looking out for American interests rather than the odd pretense that it’s wrong for America to do so. Which seemed to develop after WW II when the US emerged as essentially the sole superpower.
“The Maltese Falcon”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-KjROLZ8WY
A couple of interesting posts about Mr. Trump, which address some of the comments above about “what is he really like?”.
The NYT very nearly approved of him, some 30 years ago, and he approves of Rushbo.
Both of which explain, perhaps, why he is now President and Jim Acosta is not.
https://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/08/magazine/the-expanding-empire-of-donald-trump.html
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/08/rush-celebrates-30-years-and-takes-a-call.php
Chess? Trump is playing a nine-dimensional mix of poker, chess, and go, mixed with rope-a-dope. He won’t win every round, but when you take a round from him, you set yourself up to lose the next three or four-and they will have bigger stakes.
Hi Neo,
If we must do the inscrutable Oriental playing chess well beyond what us poor Westerners can do then…
1. China has had a problem with NK impounding their fishing boats for five or ten years now, a thorn. Now they have a real problem with a realized NK nuclear program that is an even bigger threat to them than it is to the USA. Those missiles that can’t quite reach the USA can hit the heartland of China all day long. Duh. The game change for China was when NK showed it had the capability of nukes. Wait, it was Trump’s brilliance in tactics and strategy, not the Chinese doing 3D chess over NK using the nuclear threat against them.
2. China can profit more from the shake up of the current order than the USA. The current order is Eurocentric (that includes North America) or Western centric which would include Japan and SK. It’s stable trade agreements, stable treaties like NATO and the Pacific security treaties. Stability that doesn’t include China, an instability that can only profit China in that long-term chess. Really, try taking the analysis from Australian newspapers rather than from Instapundit and American Thinker.
3. The article from American Thinker created Trump as a master of Sun Tzu from a tweet and then from a link to Quora where they make all sorts of conjecture that Trump is a master of Sun Tzu and even Machiavelli because Trump seems to be following what they think Sun Tzu and Machiavelli meant. But what do we know about Trump? He’s superficial, he has little understanding of history, and he has an ego that can’t accept either. Hey, I can quote Miyamoto Musashi, I’ve read Go Rin No Sho (The Five Rings), but I’m still not an expert on what he meant.
So the Chinese told Glenn Reynolds that Trump was a master tactician and that he was doing ‘creative destruction’ that would so benefit the USA…I would just have to ask rhetorically why those oh so smart Chinese would think it was a good thing? Maybe they recognized it was only destructive for the USA but so creative for China? Maybe Glenn Reynolds is the best source cuz he spent like a week or a month?
And to Huxley, what Trump effectiveness? All of this is in flux, nothing is settled proving effectiveness. I did read that the Trump administration was giving 12 billion to farmers to make up for the losses caused by this mercantilist trade war, but that must be fake news cuz a trade war can only benefit America in the short or long term so no need.
An habitual liar.
And AesopFan,
Whatever my opinion of Trump is, he isn’t Mr. Trump. All us males are Mister, the President is addressed as either Mr. President or President XX. When we have our first woman President, we’ll have to sort out whether Madam is appropriate.
When I attack the man I use “Trump”, when I attack his presidency I use “Trump”, when I speak of the President of the United States it’s Mr. President.
Trum, Leo ascendant, Mars first house.
Power, persona, attention seeking. Mars is in Magha nixshatra.
A lot of what Trum was doing in the 2015 campaign was due to his starry sky influences. His post victory speech was closer to his normal self.
All humans live under the creation of the starry skies and all are influenced by it, whether they know it or not. This is called Divine Plan or fate or coincidence.
Jesus of Nazareth was born with his ascendant as Virgo, with the Sun and Moon covering and conjuncting the constellation. This is detailed in Revelations and is also why the 3 Magi could look in the sky and know that what Daniel talked about was here.
Btw, there is a difference between using the Tropical system and the Sidereal system. For some odd reason, astronomically the Tropical system is off by more than 20 degrees. No wonder it is inaccurate.
Trum said something interesting in his 2015 victory speech which I watched first time just now to see what he was like. He said that Secretary Hillary Clinton should be thanked for her service to the country and he meant it sincerely. I can take that at face value due to sources.
Trum and Clinton goes in the same New York social circles and they have a good relationship. It’s why she isn’t in jail until she is dead at least. It is also why Clinton suggested to Trum that he go make trouble in the Republican primary instead of the Democrat one, and Trum agreed. When Trum won, then he had to get serious, as he isn’t the kind of person to throw a match this important.
Regarding Trump’s mode of operation, and the fervent hostility toward him, here is an analogy:
On the day in 1940 in which the Germans invaded France, Picasso met Matisse on the street: Matisse was on his way to his tailors. When Picasso reminded him that the Nazis might arrive in Paris any day, Matisse is said to have asked naively, “But what about our generals, what are they doing?” Picasso responded, “Oh they’re all from the College of Fine Arts.”
By which Picasso meant that the generals had been inculcated with a standardized and rigid style of thinking. It was a perceptive comment, entirely in line with what was observed by Andre Beaufre as a young Captain on the French General Staff.
I believe much of the hostility toward Trump stems from the fact that he is *not* from the “College”, and doesn’t pay it much regard, either.
Think also of the hostility–an actual riot, apparently–that greeted the first performance of Stravinsky’s ‘Rite of Sprint’, due to its disregard of musical conventions.
David Foster: “I believe much of the hostility toward Trump stems from the fact that he is *not* from the “College”, and doesn’t pay it much regard, either.”
Ding! Ding! Ding!
President Trump is doing what is best for America and isn’t shy about saying so. Bully for the outsider showing the college how it’s done.
Continuing on my earlier thought about The College—here’s Captain Beaufre (later to be a general) on his experience on the French General Staff in the late 1930s:
“I saw very quickly that our seniors were primarily concerned with forms of drafting. Every memorandum had to be perfect, written in a concise, impersonal style, and conforming to a logical and faultless plan–but so abstract that it had to be read several times before one could find out what it was about…”I have the honour to inform you that I have decided…I envisage…I attach some importance to the fact that…” Actually no one decided more than the barest minimum, and what indeed was decided was pretty trivial.”
This placing of great importance on the form of what is said, to the point of deemphasis on what is done, is characteristic of way too much of American society today.
“I see him more as a Used Car Salesman myself.”
I disagree. I learned in a decision theory course I took as part of a health policy MS that you never offer more than one choice to a customer. Car salesmen know this and, if you notice, they show you one car and avoid choices. There are actually a couple of medical journal articles showing that offering patients a choice of NSAID drugs for arthritis increases the probability that they will not buy any,
Trump is doing all sorts of things at once, unlike a car salesman. Taxes, border, the Norks, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Obamacare. It’s hard to keep up, especially with the outrage of the week dominating the news.
Kristian Holvoet— No, if Trump wants X, he asks for 2X or 3X. That’s how you make deals. If you make a “reasonable offer,” say X +.1X, you will end up with 1/2 X. People who never had to make deals, like, oh, George Will, Hillary Clinton, Barak Obama, or anyone working for CNN, are shocked, shocked, to see this way of negotiating. They all probably pay retail.
Neo,
With regard to “hustler” being a less-than-honest term (above August 1, 3:31 pm), I just ran across this today. From a book review of Salena Zito and Brad Todd’s book The Great Revolt
So is Trump both a tactical “Fast Eddie” Felsen hustler as well as a results-driven Salena Zito hustler?
Link to Joy Pullman’s review:
http://thefederalist.com/2018/08/03/8-insights-from-salena-zitos-book-about-trumps-america?
Furthermore, just some rhetorical questions for this discussion: If Trump sees business dealings as essentially a war between opposing forces (military academy), then isn’t he wise to not tip his hand (a Fast Eddie Felsen hustle)? Isn’t this what diplomats do all of the time (a la Kissinger’s comment about diplomacy being a chess game played simultaneously on the table and under it)?