Iran: let’s unmake a deal
I was listening to MSNBC for about 15 minutes last night, shortly after Trump announced that he was ending our participation in the Iran deal. The show featured a bunch of talking heads telling us in very dire tones that this was an awful thing that would lead to war, and that Israel wants war but wants the US to do its dirty work, and variations on such themes.
The message was similar to the idea suggested in this CNN headline: “Trump withdraws from Iran nuclear deal, isolating him further from world,” or worse:
Trump’s decision could have explosive consequences, straining longstanding US alliances, disrupting oil markets and boosting tensions in the Middle East, even if the US reversal doesn’t lead Iran to restart its atomic program…
While Trump supporters praised the move, analysts and critics said it undermines Washington’s credibility in future negotiations — particularly with North Korea — and potentially empowers the very hardliners in Iran that Trump vilified in his remarks.
It also further isolates Trump on the global stage, where he has angered even the staunchest US allies by reneging on US commitments to the Paris climate accord and pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.
This is the way the left will go at it: the notion that we are now a pariah in the community of nations (as opposed to how beloved we were under Obama), that Obama’s successor is constrained from changing Obama’s foreign policy even if he/she strongly disagrees with it (because we must have continuity or other nations won’t trust us), and that any future development of a nuclear weapon on Iran’s part is Trump’s fault because of course the Iran deal would have prevented that from happening.
I bet these same people thought it was just hunky-dory when Obama changed US policies on agreements such as this. And in particular, I bet they ignored and will continue to ignore the reasons that the Iran deal is called a deal rather than a treaty: that it was a mere executive agreement engineered by Obama with very little support from the legislature or from the American people at the time. It was Obama’s deal, and one of the reasons that Trump was elected was his promise to end it.
The Iranians knew that it was a deal rather than a treaty going in, and everyone else knew it as well. They knew that the continuation of the deal depended on Democrats retaining power and on the election of an Obama successor who thought the way he did.
I’ve read a number of sites on the right that emphasize that the Iran deal was not a treaty because it couldn’t get the 2/3 vote to pass as a treaty. But what was particularly remarkable about it was that Congress almost managed to find 60 votes to stop it; they came very close. The House rejected it with bipartisan support, meaning that all GOP members voted against it (except one who voted “present” because he thought it should have been voted down as a treaty instead of a deal) and were joined by 25 Democrats. And in the Senate, 42 Democrats in support of the deal managed to stop a vote by the majority against it. Not exactly resounding support; more like resounding (although in the end ineffective) opposition.
That was the politics of the deal, creating a foreign policy situation that as far as I know was unprecedented. To agree to an extremely important foreign policy with a country that is our sworn enemy, and have a strong majority of Congress—all of the opposing party and some from your own party—against it was an extraordinary move by Obama.
As far as the actual merits of the deal go, what you think of Trump’s withdrawal from it depends on whether you trust that the deal accomplished the aim of making it much harder for Iran to develop nuclear weapons or whether you think any such perception has been based on lies. In addition, it depends on what you think of other results of the deal—such, as, for example, as Andrew C. McCarthy writes:
In point of fact, war was not the alternative to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. War was the result of the JCPOA [the acronym for the official name of the Iran deal].
Obama said the mullahs would use the windfall to rebuild their country (while Kerry grudgingly confessed that a slice would still be diverted to the jihad). Instead, billions of dollars poured into Iran by Obama’s deal promptly poured out to Syria, where it funded both sides of the war. Cash flowed to the Taliban, where it funded the war on the American-backed government. It flowed to Hamas and Hezbollah for the war on Israel. It flowed to Yemen, funding a proxy war against Saudi Arabia.
The JCPOA made Iran better at war than it has ever been ”” and that’s saying something.
What does the future hold on Iran? I think I can safely say this: no one knows. But here are two competing articles to read, both from Vox. The first one gives us the negative point of view about Trump’s withdrawal, and the second one gives the positive. Please read.
[ADDENDUM: We know the deal was not a treaty. But was it even an “agreement”? See this:
Not only was [the deal] not a treaty, the State Department said that it was not an executive agreement, either. According to Obama’s State Department, this was a “political understanding” between Barack Obama and the other parties to the agreement and was not legally binding.
Another point constantly made by the left—as detailed in the piece by streiff I just linked—is the iea that Trump has no plan B. But as streiff writes, there is a Plan B, and it’s described here.]
Does that mean we are getting the frozen assets back if the deal is off?
I apologize for the thread jack, but Neo, I think you will enjoy this. A couple of my kids have been listening to this group for years, I hear them interspersed among other songs on their playlists. Yesterday at dinner I finally asked one what the name of the group is and I google’d them today and saw this video. It seems right up your alley, Neo.
From Australia, it’s The Avalanches:
https://youtu.be/wpqm-05R2Jk
While I’m on the subject, you’ve probably seen this one Neo, it’s been around for a long time and you’re probably aware that Christopher Walken started out as a dancer, but if you haven’t seen it you’ll likely appreciate it:
https://youtu.be/wCDIYvFmgW8
People have odd ideas about what global opinion is. The people they met on Junior Year Abroad are not representative. Journalists, dealing with other journalists, writers, media figures, and government officials abroad are also a biased sample.
Yes, it is true that those people loved Obama and dislike Trump – though even among them, not so much as liberals here fantasize. There are lots of other people in those countries, including ones who do business with Americans, are in their militaries, or are in close contact with American religious groups. Other nations have their own versions of flyover country, it seems.
Even in very liberal countries there are people who are deeply concerned about Islamic aggressiveness. They are often bullied into silence, and only murmur to those they trust, or speak in code. But they are there. Visit Scandinavia and get out of the major cities and you will hear from them.
The Mullah’s religious fanaticism guarantees that it will end in violence. Whether the violence is the result of an internal military coup or applied externally is the only fundamental question.
“A fanatic is one who can’t change his mind and won’t change the subject.” – Winston Churchill
Did not Obama & Kerry think.
another Prez would have a pen and a phone?
I read somewhere that this Iran deal has a revenue stream to his ?foundation? So as long as deal intact monies flow to Obama.
One minor point: neither party signed the agreement.
Yup. There was no signing ceremony.
The mullahs didn’t even sign on the line that was dotted.
So it’s not even a deal deal.
It was jizya.. straight up.
As a boy cultured in the ways of Islam, Barry Soetoro knew that.
David Goldman projects that Iran is in DEEP economic trouble.
( Right along with Turkey )
One can only conclude that the jizya has kept the mullahs in office ~ six-years longer than nature intended.
@MollyNH:
Once again, we are back in “they never thought it would be Trump” territory. They thought it would be Hillary, and if somehow it wasn’t, it would be Rubio or Jeb, neither of whom would have pulled out of the JCPOA.
I think Rubio also would have withdrawn from the deal — see this piece he wrote just a day ago: “President Trump should nix the Iran nuclear deal”
This is something akin to election night., Left y tears saturating the airwaves, lol. “Oh the shame, the isolation,the withdrawal from World prominence “. No dearth of adjectives to describe this calamity. Meanwhile back at the ranch Trump
Pragmatists assure us that all you hear from the Left is exactly the OPPOSITE of what will happen
I have to make a confession, I am not a real conservative who believes in fair play and democracy, I have been taken over by tribalism and hatred for the left. If i can have my way I would love to see Trump declaring martial laws and have all liberals thrown in the Gulag and dissolving the republic into a christian empire. Lord please forgive my sin and evil thoughts.
It does seem like what is called Money eats the rich and poor alike. Cannot kill it, too popular. Won’t worship it.
That is private. Like angels and such.
Obama didn’t know. Now we know. Is there a viable fix?
The Left and the MSM need to stop lying about this. There was no legally enforceable contract much less a treaty. It is a total joke. Thank god Trump won.
I predict the mullahs will be overthrown within two years with a nice assist from our new female CIA director. She has more stones and integrity than Obama and Brennan combined.
Add this to my prediction successes.
Cornhead: From your lips to God’s ears re Iran. 🙂
AVI:
I went to Latin America assuming that the leftist narrative about Latin America was correct- for example, that Latin Americans despised “reactionary” America. Instead I met Bolivians who, having been in East Germany and also in West Germany, could compare and contrast the two systems. I met Venezuelans who had assimilated much of US culture into their own- in addition to marrying Americans.
I met Argentines who, would come up to me- a complete stranger- in the street and begin denouncing the military regime. They had me pegged for an American, or at least a foreigner (gringo in Argentina) for my more informal way of dressing. No white shirt and gabardine pants for me. They figured that as Carter denounced the military regime, an American would at least be receptive to their opinions.
I did meet some leftists. There are a number of Venezuelans named Lenin or the like, courtesy of leftist parents. One coffee house leftist- that is where we conversed- in Bogota showed me that some communists in Latin America had no problem with supporting Soviet imperialism in places like Czechoslovakia in 1968.
In general, Latin Americans saw America as a place of hope, where the common man got fairer treatment than in their homelands.
Because I was working in Latin America, not hanging out in tourist joints, and also spoke Spanish, I got exposure to many opinions.
Iran is an extremely dangerous foe. I applaud djt keeping his pledge to end the ‘agreement’. Iran is a pariah and needs to be pressured everyday. Turkey has become another serious problem and needs to be kicked out of NATO. As the Great Satan we need to push our considerable weight around simply because no other nation will step up to thwart the menacing hot spots in the ME.
Wasn’t Erdogan demanding his people vote for a provision in their “constitution”.that would seal his grasp on power
Another unanswerable strong man, the world should be having more individual freedoms, not fewer.
It seems to me that once Erdogan cements his position as “Caliph” rather than president and becomes just another Ottoman dictator (cue Ataturk rolling in his grave) we should boot Turkey out of NATO–you’re no longer one of us; full stop. Yes, it may hurt to lose Incirlik but the Turks have screwed us since 2003; turnabout is not only fair play but long overdue….
One of a strange president’s strangest obsessions is this “deal” – not to be confused with a treaty, agreement, or anything else that can stand a little sunshine. About all that was missing was Obama waving a paper and proclaiming peace in our time. At least Chamberlain did not send planeloads of cash to Hitler.
Pondering it could easily lead to the old fool or knave question, maybe with the adjectives deluded and treasonous applied respectively. It comes complete with an anti-descriptive eupemism, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and pretentious acronym, JCPOA. Unless those words indicate to you that we give some of the world’s most virulent warmakers a lot of money for nothing in return, then it serves only to dissemble.
Cui bono?
“David Goldman projects that Iran is in DEEP economic trouble.” blert
Venezuela has demonstrated just how much deeper “economic trouble” can be extended…
“I think Rubio also would have withdrawn from the deal – see this piece he wrote just a day ago: “President Trump should nix the Iran nuclear deal” Ann
That’s a politically safe position for him to take. Rubio impresses me as a man who generally knows what the right thing to do is but whose actions are governed by what is personally the most politically advantageous position for him.
HKDave,
IMO, it’s perfectly rational for a conservative to believe in fair play and democracy… provided that those who disagree practice fair play and support representative democracy as laid out in the Constitution. It is foolishness to insist upon the Marquis of Queensbury rules for oneself, while an opponent employs every dirty trick in the book. A refusal to play by the rules voluntarily forfeits any claim that an opponent must do so.
They’ve called the tune, and now have to pay for it.
But there’s no need to throw all the liberals in a Gulag. Just disenfranchise them.
Nor would dissolving the Republic into a Christian Empire work. Careful what you wish for… Christian morality is an internal matter. It’s much more effective when lived as example rather than preached as obligatory.
“I predict the mullahs will be overthrown within two years with a nice assist from our new female CIA director.” Cornhead
Certainly to be hoped for but given a disarmed public, I suspect it will take a military coup to displace the Mullah’s Republican Guard support. The norm in Islamic societies is either theological or ruled by a strong man.
parker,
“Iran is an extremely dangerous foe.”
Only if we refuse to “push our considerable weight around”. The certain prospect of a close introduction to a MOAB will “concentrate the mind wonderfully”. Though that proposition is admittedly chancy given Congressional democrat and RINO ‘resistance’.
First pull our nukes out of Turkey…
MollyNH,
I’m under the impression that it passed. Erdogan has positioned himself to be another Caliph. A religious… “strong man”.
MollyNH: I am of the very firm belief that Barack Hussein and Kerry is and were every bit as corrupt as the Clintons. I suspect, nay believe, that each of those lizards received perhaps a billion dollar commission from the Mullahs for the “deal’.
We are already just about 33% of the way thru Trump’s term.
The Democratic elitist Left will turn upon America with a vengeance if he is not re-elected, or if one of the Chambers is lost to the Left.
Too bad for the Turks, & may be others as well.
I recall this guy among other things as a weird dude. He can’t abide women laughing in public.
Yikes! My hubby goes out of his way to make me laugh, gets a charge out of my lilt. I dig his laugh too.
See this-
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/05/killing-the-worst-deal-ever-10.php
@Frog definitely, in addition they probably *.helped* themselves to the untraceable money that was laying on the pallets. Kerry is notoriously CHEAP in Ma he is known to stiff hard working waitresses, he leaves them his signature on a napkin ! They complained to boss & now they take turns at his table regardless of whose station he sits in, dodges taxes too. And Obama he was known to lament how was he going to get his multimillions having been elected so early in a do nothing senate career, no chance for serious graft. So as Jerry Mcquire advises follow the money.
Matthew M Says:
May 9th, 2018 at 9:03 pm
Cui bono?
* * *
I would look first at all the Obama cronies who are yelling the loudest about Trump’s actions.
There is a reason the leftist pols were so enraged that Trump won, and it’s not just the idealism of ideology.
I’m not ready to go the full monte on Obama and Kerry getting money from the Iranians, but yes they are corrupt enough to do that and the Democrats are letting the way they think show by projecting collusion with Russia on Trump. Still, the big positive I see here is precisely the signal to North Korea. Scuppering a phoney deal sends just the right message – we are not going to do a phoney deal with you. Just the opposite of what the Democrats are claiming. The way I see it, the US has been doing phoney, pretend deals with North Korea all along and anyone without their heads in the sand knew it. Clinton Bush and Obama all operated on that self deception. The Iran deal was noticeably worse. So whatever is going on with the murderous Un and his Chinese backers, I think the era of ‘we pay you real money and you pretend to disarm’ are over. Seb Gorka said the prospects of a Korean deal are 3-5% depending on the the interview you listen to, and i’d say that is about right. The Norks and China think that time is on their side and they can eventually take over South Korea. The Trump card probably goes something like this: You can have a denuclearised Korean Peninsula or a nuclearised one – up to you.”
“She has more stones and integrity than Obama and Brennan combined.”
Nothing against Haspel but that bar is so low it is beneath the Dead Sea.
“the old fool or knave question”
Easy, Obama is both, bigly.
A christian empire would be no better than a Leftist empire. All state religions eventually devolve to totalitarian powers, as the Vatican has shown quite well.
“The Left and the MSM need to stop lying about this.”
Well, yes, but that is NOT going to happen. (Why should it?)
They are so used to lying that they cannot help themselves.
One might even say that they enjoy it; or that, for them, it’s become a sacred duty—to defend the indefensible, which includes in the present case, the alliance—yes, alliance (disguised as a “deal”)—that the Obama administration, supported by wide swaths of the Left, has made with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Unfortunately, it seems to me that the ONLY “solution” for such utter, rampant dishonesty—and perversity—is, alas, a total bust-up.
Unfortunately. For it’s a terrifying sort of “solution”. But there you have it….
What’s been going on for way too long is essentially Auden’s “low dishonest decade” in spades.
And one remembers the RESULT of that. How that, necessarily, HAD to end up.
(To be sure, in the present case, it’s been far, far more than a mere decade.)
Prepare for a massive campaign to further impugn Trump (on a global scale) by claiming that he’s been malevolently influenced by the Zionist Entity and its supporters—a foolproof strategy, at least in the eyes of those who sow those dragons teeth.
Indeed, the campaign has already begun.
(Keeping in mind that Obama’s alliance with the Mullahs was a “terrific” and “inspired” idea….)
Prepare.
Related:
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/middle-east/iran/iran-deal-change-the-world-nukes/
Ymar Sakar Says:
May 10th, 2018 at 3:42 am
A christian empire would be no better than a Leftist empire. All state religions eventually devolve to totalitarian powers, as the Vatican has shown quite well.
* *
There can never (short of the Millenium!) be a Christian Empire.
Once you get to empire, you’ve probably quit being much of a Christian.
Lorenz Gude Says:
May 10th, 2018 at 1:18 am
I’m not ready to go the full monte on Obama and Kerry getting money from the Iranians, but yes they are corrupt enough to do that
* *
I think you are right about the intermingling of symbols: every international actor looks at what the others are doing, and wonders how it applies to them. Mr. Trump is also signaling Americans about his intentions, in a much more up-front manner than we are used to.
However, I have no problem believing at least some of Obama Inc. raked off some vig in the deal, through cut-outs and laundering of some sort.
The only thing unusual about the Clintons was the blatancy of their corruption.
HKDave Says:
May 9th, 2018 at 5:31 pm
I have to make a confession, I am not a real conservative who believes in fair play and democracy, I have been taken over by tribalism and hatred for the left.
As other messengers of the Divine Counsel might counsel you with some advice: try to find some positive emotions to balance the hate, unless you want to become like VoxDay or Leftists or SJWs.
Once you get to empire, you’ve probably quit being much of a Christian.
Tell that to the Catholics like Alt Right author John C Wright that is declaring a Last Crusade for all Catholic and universal christians… I don’t make these decisions. I got nothing to do with this venture, so don’t blame me as I wash my hands of the blood of this generation. (Pilate!!!!!!!!!!!)
As for Trum being influenced, there’s a pastor named David Copeland I believe. He has these interesting spiritual charismatic church experiences… and he is part of the pastor group adivising Trum and blessing Trum and laying hands on Trum.
To pass on the “spirit” heheh. Want to see what kind of spirit? Look on Youtube for Copeland.
“this was an awful thing that would lead to war”
Let’s hope it leads to the kind of “war” we are now having with North Korea!
Seriously! I was nearly in tears when I saw the video of the North Korean nutjob walking across the border to shake hands with the democratically elected President of South Korea.
Why isn’t the MSM shouting from the rooftops about how historic such a move was? It was by far more historic than Obama’s historic dealing with Cuba?
Let’s hope something just as good comes from Trump’s dealings with Iran.
I won’t hold my breath for them to give Trump a Nobel Peace Prize or anything; quite frankly such an award would be beneath him anyway. The Nobel Peace prize, since they gave one to Obama, is like a “participation” trophy they give to all the players of T-ball. Don’t insult Trump with that!
more like resounding (although in the end ineffective) opposition
As fine a description of Republicans as I’ve ever seen. All talk–like Reagan’s promise to abolish the Department of Education. “Full of sound and fury’s”