…evaluates Democratic strategy for the 2018 midterms.
Comments
FiveThirtyEight… — 8 Comments
Since 538 can’t find a solid demographic pattern in the Democrat voting, maybe it really is a case of the GOP just running very bad candidates in a lot of places.
Best to have each electoral area assess its own strengths and weaknesses.
Good read. The DNC strategy for 2018 should be:
(1) “Don’t get cocky.” — Han Solo
(2) “Don’t do stupid sh!t” — President Obama
(3) “Don’t be evil.” — Google
They may not be able to do it.
“I have the right to remain silent … but not the ability.”
— Comedian Ron White
“Now, there are some things to keep in mind when thinking about this stuff. One is the mass media is mostly just the propaganda wing of the Democrat party, so they will be endlessly gas lighting us from now until November. Then there is the fact that the constant gerrymandering of House districts has made most of them bulletproof. About 15% of seats are truly competitive now. There’s also the fact that the Democrat freak show tends not to show up in midterms. The trans-lesbian of color voter is surprisingly unreliable.
“To get some sense of what could happen this November, I took a look at the district by district results in presidential races over the last three cycles. If a Republican held a seat during the Obama years, it is a safe bet that the seat is solid GOP. If a Democrat held the seat, despite blowouts in 2010 and 2014, the safe bet is the seat is solid Democrat. The point is to eliminate the seats that are locks for either party in any election. The result is 183 seats that the GOP will always win and 194 that Democrat will always win.”
Didn’t 538 pick HRC to win?
Two things to worry about:
1. The “Bernie factor” (i.e., Democrats opposed to the “D” candidate, e.g., Hillary) will not—as far as I can tell—be in play.
2. The wildly partisan media and the unceasing animosity against—and yes, demonization of—Trump (and the GOP as a whole) that has been generated by the MSM, by the Democratic Party, and, unfortunately, by Republicans who are opposed to Trump.
“Democratic strategy for the 2018 midterms”
One of my pet peeves is people using democratic (adjective) when they mean Democrat (noun). I noticed that Rush Limbaugh never says democratic party. Another of my peeves is the use of the word gender for sex.
Ray: The adjectival form of Democrat is Democratic — not democratic, not Democrat.
From what I can tell, “Democrat Party” is just a taunt some conservatives use to annoy Democrats.
kevino:
> Good read. The DNC strategy for 2018 should be:
> (1) “Don’t get cocky.” – Han Solo
> (2) “Don’t do stupid sh!t” – President Obama
> (3) “Don’t be evil.” – Google
The problem with that is that none of those three were able to take follow own advice.
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Since 538 can’t find a solid demographic pattern in the Democrat voting, maybe it really is a case of the GOP just running very bad candidates in a lot of places.
Best to have each electoral area assess its own strengths and weaknesses.
Good read. The DNC strategy for 2018 should be:
(1) “Don’t get cocky.” — Han Solo
(2) “Don’t do stupid sh!t” — President Obama
(3) “Don’t be evil.” — Google
They may not be able to do it.
“I have the right to remain silent … but not the ability.”
— Comedian Ron White
Another look….
November Rain | The Z Blog
“Now, there are some things to keep in mind when thinking about this stuff. One is the mass media is mostly just the propaganda wing of the Democrat party, so they will be endlessly gas lighting us from now until November. Then there is the fact that the constant gerrymandering of House districts has made most of them bulletproof. About 15% of seats are truly competitive now. There’s also the fact that the Democrat freak show tends not to show up in midterms. The trans-lesbian of color voter is surprisingly unreliable.
“To get some sense of what could happen this November, I took a look at the district by district results in presidential races over the last three cycles. If a Republican held a seat during the Obama years, it is a safe bet that the seat is solid GOP. If a Democrat held the seat, despite blowouts in 2010 and 2014, the safe bet is the seat is solid Democrat. The point is to eliminate the seats that are locks for either party in any election. The result is 183 seats that the GOP will always win and 194 that Democrat will always win.”
Didn’t 538 pick HRC to win?
Two things to worry about:
1. The “Bernie factor” (i.e., Democrats opposed to the “D” candidate, e.g., Hillary) will not—as far as I can tell—be in play.
2. The wildly partisan media and the unceasing animosity against—and yes, demonization of—Trump (and the GOP as a whole) that has been generated by the MSM, by the Democratic Party, and, unfortunately, by Republicans who are opposed to Trump.
“Democratic strategy for the 2018 midterms”
One of my pet peeves is people using democratic (adjective) when they mean Democrat (noun). I noticed that Rush Limbaugh never says democratic party. Another of my peeves is the use of the word gender for sex.
Ray: The adjectival form of Democrat is Democratic — not democratic, not Democrat.
From what I can tell, “Democrat Party” is just a taunt some conservatives use to annoy Democrats.
kevino:
> Good read. The DNC strategy for 2018 should be:
> (1) “Don’t get cocky.” – Han Solo
> (2) “Don’t do stupid sh!t” – President Obama
> (3) “Don’t be evil.” – Google
The problem with that is that none of those three were able to take follow own advice.