Has there been…
Tensions have been building in Zimbabwe since Mr Mnangagwa, a powerful figure in the ruling Zanu-PF party, fled to South Africa last week after he was fired and was then stripped of his lifetime membership of the party.
The move was widely seen as part of a battle between Mr Mnangagwa and Mrs Mugabe, the first lady, over the presidential succession when Mr Mugabe dies or steps down. The Zimbabwean president, who is 93, fights his last election next year. Many expected Mrs Mugabe to be appointed vice president in Mr Mnangagwa’s place at the Zanu-PF special congress next month.
Rumours were swirling this on Wednesday morning that Mr Mugabe and his wife have been offered safe passage to Singapore, but this could not be confirmed.
Hard to tell at this point, but it seems to be a serious crisis at the very least. Mugabe has been wreaking havoc in Zimbabwe for a long time. He’s been president since 1987 (that’s thirty years) and before that Prime Minister beginning in 1980:
Mugabe’s initial calls for racial reconciliation failed to stem deteriorating race relations and growing white flight. Relations with Joshua Nkomo’s Zimbabwe African People’s Union (ZAPU) also declined, with Mugabe crushing ZAPU-linked opposition in Matabeleland during the Gukurahundi between 1982 and 1985; at least 10,000 people, mostly Ndebele civilians, were killed by Mugabe’s Fifth Brigade. Pursuing decolonization, Mugabe’s government emphasised the redistribution of land controlled by white farmers to landless blacks, initially on a “willing seller-willing buyer” basis. Frustrated at the slow rate of redistribution, from 2000 Mugabe encouraged the violent seizure of white-owned land. Food production was severely impacted, generating famine, international sanctions, and drastic economic decline. Opposition to Mugabe grew, particularly through the Movement for Democratic Change, although he was re-elected in 2002, 2008, and 2013 through campaigns dominated by violence, electoral fraud, and nationalistic appeals to his rural Shona voter base. Internationally, Mugabe sent troops to fight in the Second Congo War…
Wouldn’t it be nice if whatever is happening now signaled an improvement in Zimbabwe’s policies, both in terms of human rights and the economy? I wouldn’t bet more than a nickel on it, though.
He has destroyed the country with the help of his cronies. There is a pretty good book, “Dinner with Mugabe” by a white Mugabe supporter who suggests that he wanted the British to stay and help him but they could not. South Africa is deteriorating, as well.
In a word: Yep.
Stand by for trials and executions.
I was in Zimbabwe (then Rhodesia) in 1981. Beautiful, rich, country. What a pity. I do hope he’s gone, but don’t hold out great hope that things will improve much.
We could start an ABC book naming failed states and what brought them down (hint: it wasn’t capitalism).
Wikipedia even has a helpful article (imagine that…)
This is actually from their List of Countries by Fragile States Index – given in order within Letter by rank of worst to better – I stopped at #44 except as noted, just to fill up the blanks.
Their maps are graphically indicative of where the problems are.
Afghanistan & Angola, Burundi & Bangladesh, Central African Republic& Chad, Cote d’Ivoire & Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo & Djibouti, Ethiopia & Eritrea & Egypt, Fiji (#76), Guinea & Guinea-Bissau & Gambia, Haiti, Iraq, Jordan (#71), Kenya, Libya & Liberia & Lebanon, Myanmar & Mauritania & Mali & Mozambique, Nigeria & Niger & North Korea & Nepal, Oman (#133), Pakistan, Qatar (#146), Republic of the Congo & Rwanda, Somalia & both Sudans &Syria & Sierra Leone, & Swaziland, Timor-Leste, Uganda, Venezuela, W…, X…, Yemen, Zimbabwe,
(Finland is the least fragile at #178; USA is #158 which is worse than Slovenia, so make of the index what you will)
One of the controlling factors in this rolling disaster in the failed states of Africa is the factor that the countries aren’t that smart.
“Countries With The Lowest Average IQ
1 Equatorial Guinea 59
2 Ethiopia 63
3 Sierra Leone 64
4 Democratic Republic of the Congo 65
5 Zimbabwe 66”
I don’t know how a country manages to ever correct its course with this sort of problem.
I was in Rhodesia in the early 1970s and it was a prosperous country then. They had a railway system, a national airline, a university. They still sort of have a university but the airline and railways are long gone. Jimmy Carter of course wanted Mugabe to run Rhodesia just like he wanted Khomeini to run Iran. Carter liked communists dictators and Islamic terrorists.
Mugabe is the Devil Incarnate. He probably won’t get justice in this life.
This is a good one for Trump to keep hands off of.
vanderleun:
Perhaps you’re unaware that the IQ statistics you cite are pretty much malarkey.
I covered the topic somewhere on this blog, but in a quick search right now I can’t find the post or comments where I discussed it. I’ll just refer you to this, this, and the more in-depth take here.
Unless a person scores equal or higher than 90% on the Raven’s Matrix IQ test, which isn’t Mensa level but was once accepted by Mensa, the comprehension of statistical IQ levels isn’t valid.
Norming a test so that it can test for high IQ and low IQ is something the high IQ societies do all the time. It was never supposed to be provided for average normals to use.
Another problem happens when the 75% create IQ tests to test people who are lower or higher than the test makers.
So most people assume that the low IQ number are a result of the test being too hard.
From a different perspective, one might think that the IQ test is invalid because the test maker’s IQ is insufficient to test for high or low IQ. As both are “outside of their range”.
AesopFan:
I had not seen that reference. To my great grief, I have served in many of those countries:
Central African Republic
Cameroun (I’d disagree with Cameroun’s inclusion)
Democratic People’s Republic of the Congo
Kenya (I’d disagree with Kenya being on the list)
Mali
Venezuela.
But it’s not my fault!
F Says:
November 15th, 2017 at 3:35 pm
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You’re the only thing they have in common, therefore it must be your fault!
The index has a lot of factors, and I can’t say that I’m in any position to evaluate them fairly.
As it happens, a young man from our ward is serving in the Kenya Nairobi Mission right now, and he loves it.
Aesop:
I’d go back to Kenya right now if I had a job there! Great place, nice people. I still read two newsfeeds from Kenya daily.
The part of this story that I find interesting is the longevity of strongman dictatorships. My un-researched historical understanding is that they usually last a very long time. So here it looks like old age was a factor.
What are the exceptions? Kaddafi in Libya was taken down by the Arab Spring more or less. Others?
When politicians make claims like “the people will rise up” or “those dictatorships are so unstable… just give it time” I always think BS.
TommyJay Says:
November 15th, 2017 at 8:43 pm
The part of this story that I find interesting is the longevity of strongman dictatorships.
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It helps to have a public that is willing to believe you when you blame someone else for the problems.
It also helps to have a large cadre of people willing to kill your opponents.
The answer to Neo’s question appears to be “yes” –
https://apnews.com/364d8aaefe1c49c8b2a6dcdc35a45efd/Zimbabwe-army-has-Mugabe,-wife-in-custody,-controls-capital
“The series of whiplash events followed Mugabe’s firing last week of his deputy, which appeared to position the first lady, Grace Mugabe, to replace Emmerson Mnangagwa as one of the country’s two vice presidents at a party conference next month.
…
Grace Mugabe has been known as the leader of the G40, a group of Cabinet ministers and officials in their 40s and 50s who are too young to have fought in Zimbabwe’s war to end white-minority rule in Rhodesia. When Mnangagwa was fired, the generals and war veterans felt they were being sidelined and took action to stop that, analysts say.
…
On Monday, the army commander made an unprecedented statement <b.criticizing Mugabe for pushing aside veterans of the liberation war. The following day, the ruling party condemned the army leader for “treasonable conduct” and that evening the army sent armored personnel carriers into Harare and seized control of the state broadcaster and other strategic points, including Mugabe’s residence.”
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Given the reasons for the coup, there is no indication that the situation will improve.
For a great story about the period when Rhodesia became Zimbabwe and beyond I recommend “Let’s Not Go To the Dogs Tonight,” by Alexandra Fuller. The country was an African breadbasket, but after the fall of Ian Smith’s white rule, slowly became unable to feed its people. Mugabe is a Communist and we know how those policies work out for a country.
I’m presently reading Thomas Sowell’s book, “Conquests and Cultures.” He points out how the geography of Africa has had a deleterious affect on cultural progress there. It lacks good natural harbors and navigable rivers, which kept the tribes there isolated from trade and the cross pollination of ideas that comes with trade. When Arabs and Europeans began to venture into the “Dark Continent” in the 17th Century, they found little worth trading for except slaves. The tribes were backward and easy prey for the slave traders. It was only in the late 1700s when European nations began to explore the continent that other commercial possibilities were realized, which set off a race to colonize the whole of Sub Saharan Africa. Then, in the post WWII years all the European nations decided that the African colonies were not worth their trouble and slowly pulled out.
I met plenty of smart, hard-working people when I visited Africa. What I noticed was that they had not retained the European ideas of private property laws backed by courts and reasonably honest representative government. Their governments there are an mixture of big chief dictatorships, kleptocracies, and socialist/communist paradises. Most of these countries could be at least moderately wealthy if they had honest governments and strong private property laws. Those with abundant resources, such as oil in Nigeria, could be quite wealthy. The chances of that happening in the next 100 years are quite small. All for lack of the institutions that we take for granted.
Mike K:
He has destroyed the country with the help of his cronies.
Yeah, but he’s the right color, so… progress.
The same thing happened in South Africa, where leftists opened abortion fields targeting the native white population, while the Mandela faction was recruited to suppress the dissent of native black competitors.
[Mugabe] has destroyed the country with the help of his cronies.
Yeah, but he’s the right color, so… diversity. Color diversity.
J.J. Says:
November 15th, 2017 at 11:31 pm
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Thanks for the information. I haven’t studied Africa in depth, but that accords with what I have gleaned over the years. I have some wonderful friends from Africa (Liberia), very hard-working and good people. We are glad they are here and not there, but still wish their country was a better place to live.
Rumors of wars (that may not have happened) and also actual wars.
Kaddafi in Libya was taken down by the Arab Spring more or less.
No, he was gotten rid of by Americans. HRC+Hussein+NATO