Nuclear weapons, Trump, Russia, and the arms race
Despite that very-important-sounding title, I’m not going to do a full analysis of Trump’s recent comments about our nuclear arsenal—and the varied reactions to it and interpretations of it—because I think his remarks (mostly in the form of tweets) resemble one of those TAT tests where the meaning is in the eye of the beholder:
The Thematic Apperception Test (TAT) is a projective psychological test. Proponents of the technique assert that subjects’ responses, in the narratives they make up about ambiguous pictures of people, reveal their underlying motives, concerns, and the way they see the social world. Historically, the test has been among the most widely researched, taught, and used of such techniques.
You can find a discussion of some of the varied interpretations of Trump’s position here. Or you can just start plowing through the articles on that Memeorandum page to which I already linked.
What do I think? It’s my opinion that these sorts of ambiguous and shifting comments—and the stirring up of a hornet’s nest of speculation—are Trump’s specialty. We are very familiar with them (on a host of subjects) from his campaign. He does this intentionally, IMHO, and watches the entire world spin around him.
It certainly garners publicity, but is it a good thing? I think a little goes a long way, and he needs to be careful. It’s not a bad thing for the world to find a president somewhat unpredictable, as well as willing to project US strength and ability to defend itself. But too much unpredictability and too much aggressiveness can backfire and cause an equal reaction on the part of those who feel threatened.
As I’ve said before: we’ll see.
[NOTE: Interesting how one moment Trump is labeled too friendly to Russia, and the next moment too belligerent.]
A little like how Obama was likened to a Rorschach test.
Better a prophylactic than a double-edged scalpel.
“NOTE: Interesting how one moment Trump is labeled too friendly to Russia, and the next moment too belligerent”
Yep, that is Democrat/News Media view of all Republicans: too much or too little, never “just right”
With Trump I think they will go even more to the “too much/too little – never just right” mode.
The words of the President of the USA are carefully scrutinized for meaning by the media and foreign countries. As the pundits say, “Words have consequences.” But in Trump’s world words are not all that important. He may say he wants to build up our nukes, but down the road, if the policy becomes a problem or isn’t working, he is likely to change course. He has no fixed ideology. He seems to be pragmatist of the first order. I think he operates in a world where results matter more to him than ideology or intellectualism. This attitude confuses those who are used to reading the tea leaves to ascertain exactly what his words mean. It’s going to be an interesting ride. My hope is that he will be successful with his approach. But as Neo says, “We’ll see.”
Our nuclear arsenal has been deteriorating steadily, while Russia has been cheating on it’s treaty obligations and China’s has grown stronger. Trump is at least saying the right words.
The purpose of a nuclear arsenal is not to start a war, it’s to deter even the thought of one. But that only works if an enemy is convinced that we have the ability to retaliate and that retaliation would be certain.
Trump is not going to stop being Trump. He will continue to drive the msm and its legion of pundits bonkers as he refuses to behave ‘presidential’. He wiill taunt them and engage his voters outside of their control. The next 4 years will be interesting.
Here is Robert Gates take on Trump. e also has a We’ll see attitude, but he sees possibilities:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/pb/opinions/robert-gates-theres-value-in-trumps-disruptive-approach/2016/12/22/a2697708-c891-11e6-bf4b-2c064d32a4bf_story.html?outputType=accessibility&nid=menu_nav_accessibilityforscreenreader
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” – Sun Tzu
“Don’t look behind the curtain.’ and “We aren’t in Kansas any more, Toto.” L. Frank Baum
I would hate to argue with Sun Tzu, but anytime you look weak, you invite attack. Maybe that is what he wanted; don’t think we do. In the modern world, it would seem to be a good idea to always appear strong–if restrained.
I have no problem with Trump feeding some of Putin’s rhetoric back at him, so long as it doesn’t prove to be empty. Same applies to Iran, et al.
Then again another well known historical figure said: “walk softly and carry a big stick”. I assume that he meant for the world to see the stick.
Oldflyer. WRT Sun Tzu, “suck them in.” See Cannae.
Funny how that worked out for the Carthaginian’s in the long run.