Comments

I’m going on record with my Trump predictions — 96 Comments

1. I’ve been following 358 Poll since around 2012

   http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

2. Neo, the NeverTrumpers are stabbing themselves in the back.

   What, today, would you be writing if Cruz had won the nomination, and Trump’s supporters, or Trump himself, declared they could never support Cruz and would vote for Clinton or a third party candidate- or that they were just going to sit on their hands? If, in that circumstance Cruz lost to Clinton, wouldn’t you be writing that the loss was still the fault of Trump’s supporters?

   Again, the NeverTrumpers are hoping for something that isn’t going to happen- Trump losing and not taking the House and Senate down with him. If you want to hold on to those two, you basically have to start supporting the top of the ticket- advocating of ticket splitting will just drive Republican voters to stay home in November- Republicans will get the turnout you see in mid-term elections while Democrats get the turnout you see in presidential elections.

3. [If Trump were to win] ” . . . I hope he’s a far far better man and makes a far far better president than I believe he is or would be. ” [Neo)

   Just an FYI in the event anyone hasn’t seen this. Make of it what you will..

   H/T Ed Driscoll’s post at Instapundit (today 8:51 AM):

   Supply-side heavyweights Arthur Laffer, Larry Kudlow, and Steve Moore helped craft Trump’s economic proposal. The man who Never Trumpniks say ‘never listens’ heeded these free-marketeers on taxes and the Heritage Foundation on judges.

   Ed Driscoll’s link goes to DeRoy Murdock’s article which, ironically, is an anti- AntiTrump article in the National Review. (The link will not paste properly here. One can get to it through Ed Driscoll’s link).

4. YW –

   While Neo didn’t directly address the problem of the “NeverTrumpers” in her piece, she still notes something important. Namely, even if Trump managed to get all of the Republicans, he’d still likely lose because he apparently doesn’t have enough independents and Democrats who are ready to vote for him.

   Ultimately, we won’t know for sure until we’re able to see post-election numbers, and get some data on how the people of different political backgrounds in the swing states all voted.

5. I just watched Hillary and Biden speaking in Scranton. Biden was especially good at taking down Trump on foreign policy. And, of course, Hillary talked about (very superficially) all the things she was going to do to help average workers. Both emphasized their small-town backgrounds in a way that seemed very sincere. I know Hillary was lying through her teeth about caring for the working class, and it is obvious that she has no idea how all her grand schemes will affect small and medium businesses.

   Their theme seems to be how down-to-earth they are and how sensible. They ignore all the bad things we know about Hillary, but I don’t think that will matter to most voters. There is no way that Trump can break through this. Hannity and Ingraham will stick with him, but most people will be tired of all Trump’s ranting and just want a quiet space.

   I read that one of the speakers at the Red State conference said that many conservatives don’t realize how few of them there are. And now the conservative block has been ripped apart. It will take someone who can make conservative principles relevant to the problems so many people face. Forget quoting Burke and the classic philosophers. Talk about how America became what it is because of its institutions: families, friends, communities, charities. They will be the ones to solve problems because they see them, understand them, and know their own resources.

6. You better hope you are wrong as we can’t have a criminal as President.

   Trump can win if he gets a massive blue collar Dem turnout in industrial Midwest states. He also needs a huge turnout from traditional non-voters. Young people and college educated women have bought into the racist and mean guy narrative but it is all about the Electoral College.

   With the Barron’s endorsement of Hillary and the likes of Susan Collins it is clear that Hillary is the Republican candidate for President. That’s what Evan McMuffin is assigned to do: elect Hillary and keep the status quo.

   But how did we get to this place? Mitt’s loss hurts more each day.

7. NEO: I have based my estimation of his character not on media reports but on a combination of factors I have observed, in particular his own words in Twitter and debates and interviews, both within the last year and going back for many many years.

   now THATS funny… may i ask where did you get to observe him from sources other than media reports? you work in his office? you have permission to follow him around like a certain author i quoted? how did you know which twitter to read or did you read them all with your own twitter account?

   and may i ask where those debates and interviews came from? playboy? the press? the media?

   everything you know, unless you actually bypass it, comes in some way or some fashion from the media!!

   your point sounds as if you decided to throw away those newspapers, news shows, pundits and such, and in some way, wiped your mind clear and then went to visit him at the office and spend some time watching him up close and personal.

   i have met him several times, how many times have you met him? i know more than one person who has worked with and for him, how about you?

   its ridiculous to say what you said, and explains how you can tolerate the cognitive dissonance!!!

   lets fisk your points

8. Junior,

   Trump did his part to reach over the center of the political divide, and guess what- he gets call non-conservative and abandoned by the conservative pundits and the neo-conservatives. The Republican Party was in a cul de sac- the loss by Romney in 2012 pretty much confirmed it beyond all doubt. I think people think that some of other candidate could have beaten Clinton easily. First, I don’t think Clinton is that easy to beat by anyone, but another Republican candidate would have been vilified by the media just as harshly, and would have spent the last 2 months constantly apologizing for every single real or imagined verbal slip. Seriously, I still cringe thinking about the genuflections that poor old Romney made trying to overcome that bias.

   Seriously, some of the NeverTrumpers literally make no sense to me- on the one hand they claim he won the nomination by getting the votes of non-Republicans in open primary states (certainly true!), but then claim can’t win because he can’t get non-Republicans to vote for him in November (maybe true, maybe not, but an open issue). Add to that the fact that we have Republican leaders in the party and the media claiming they won’t vote for anyway. It is a self-fulling doom they are bringing on themselves.

9. You’re braver than I am, Neo. I hope he loses but I won’t predict that he will. If he wins, you will have to eat a big serving of crow with humble pie for desert.

10. One thing I’ll add: One reason I won’t predict his defeat is that if anyone can lose to Trump, it’s Hillary Clinton. She is a terrible candidate. If Trump were facing a better Democrat, he would lose in a landslide.

11. Artfldgr,

    Ok, trump is a warm and incredibly likeable person in addition to being a genius on par with that other genius with the initials bho. To date he has been a blowhard, constantly backtracking, brawler who spouts off about among other odd pronouncements, his support for Article XII of the Constitution.

    So the question is when will he pivot to show the world the true djt?

12. So my first prediction is that, barring some catastrophic revelation about Hillary Clinton (more catastrophic than those that have gone before, that is, which is saying something), he will lose. And I think his loss will be formidable and massive.

    surprise… exactly what the MEDIA your not paying attention to says…

    Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980? / That’s right. Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980.

    In a series of nine stories in 1980 on “Crucial States” — New York Times repeatedly told readers then-President Carter was going to win: And used polling data from the New York Times/CBS polls to back up its stories.

    Four years later, it was the Washington Post that played the polling game – Reagan campaign manager Ed Rollins a famous Post executive called his paper’s polling an “in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.”

    and of course, Mondale won too…

    The states involved, and the datelines for the stories:
    · California – October 6, 1980
    · Texas – October 8, 1980
    · Pennsylvania – October 10, 1980
    · Illinois – October 13, 1980
    · Ohio – October 15, 1980
    · New Jersey – October 16, 1980
    · Florida – October 19, 1980
    · New York – October 21, 1980
    · Michigan – October 23, 1980

    note how close to the election..

    Of these nine only one was depicted as “likely” for Reagan: Reagan’s own California. A second – New Jersey – was presented as a state that “appears to support” Reagan.

    everything pointed to this tv star being a non starter president..

    The Times led their readers to believe that each of the remaining seven states were “close” – or the Times had Carter leading outright. In every single case the Times was proven grossly wrong on election day. Reagan in fact carried every one of the nine states.

    here is how the game was played for 7 of the 9
    [edited for length by n-n]

13. YW –

    You attempted to address my concerns about Trump’s weak following among independents by responding that the NeverTrump people have painted Trump as “non-conservative”. What does that have to do with the point that I was making? Why are unaligned voters going to care whether or not Trump is conservative?

14. Women, and men, led by female and male chauvinists will vote for the Pro-Choice candidate. With select promises of opiates and “benefits”, they will even overlook abortion rites in a final solution, Planned Parenthood’s Mengele division, progressive wars, social justice adventurism, trickle-up poverty (e.g. redistributive change), the Left’s propensity to monopoly formation, immigration replacement, [class] diversity schemes, and a reset of the cold war with Russia and Her allies.

    Forward! Into the past.

15. Donald Trump’s speech before the Detroit Economic Club was an economic conservative tour de force and there is no longer any excuse for anyone who claims to be a believer in free enterprise and limited government to not support the GOP nominee.

    1) Trump announced that he will rescind Obama’s Executive Orders, effectively wiping out his extra-Constitutional legacy. Hillary Clinton will expand the Constitution ripping pen and phone approach taking away power from the people’s representatives in Congress

    2) Concerned that having the highest corporate tax rate in the world is harming economic growth? Trump’s tax plan lowers this corporate tax rate encouraging investment in America rather than draining mid-sized and small business, which don’t have armies of accountants, of the profits needed to reinvest and grow their businesses. Hillary wants to raise the corporate tax rate making this a very simple choice.

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/09/trump-detroit-speech-separates-gop-wheat-chaff/

    Even after Trump’s triumphant economic address which hit all the touchstones of free market policy, with a direct contrast to Hillary Clinton, Senator Susan Collins announced that she will not vote for him largely because she thinks he is uncivil.

    It is ironic that every six years, Senator Collins asks GOP conservatives to hold their noses and vote for her because she votes for a Republican for Senate Majority Leader, but in denouncing Trump for tone, she admits that lower taxes, growing the economy, rolling back the Obama regulatory machine and establishing a trade policy that helps Mainers from having their jobs offshored are not what is important to her.

    The choice is stark. Trump’s economic vision is largely a conservative one designed to get the government out of the way and allow American business and workers to compete on a fair playing field in the world economy. Hillary’s economic policies continue the slide toward national insolvency, giving more power to D.C. and strip-mining the nation’s wealth to engorge the public employee unions who support her. Now, any GOP leader or consultant who still supports Hillary or continues playing the absurd #NeverTrump game can no longer claim that protecting free enterprise is a primary goal.

16. Artfldgr:

    I’m not relying on the Times or the WaPo or any single poll. Nor am I talking about polls from 40 or so years ago.

    Ignore or discount or disagree with what I say as you wish. We will see what happens come November. It certainly is possible I am wrong, but I don’t think so.

    Here’s what happened with Reagan in 1980, however.

17. NeverTrumpers pretend that 15 MILLION new citizens, formerly “undocumented”… will not be decisive in all future elections.

    NeverTrumpers pretend that a near permanent liberal/leftist activist SCOTUS will not “fundamentally transform” the constitution… that the Bill of Rights cannot be ‘amended’.

    NeverTrumpers pretend that ‘it’s too late’… will never come.

    NeverTrumpers imagine that Venezuela could never be a preview of America’s future, despite it already having happened in Detroit, happening in Chicago and arguably, having begun in NYC…

18. ….industrial Midwest states

    Hardly anyone lives there.

19. Wooly Bully:

    Nope, no crow or humble pie.

    I am not arrogant or certain in my predictions. And in several respects (as I said towards the end of the post) I would like to be wrong. I would love to be wrong—have Hillary defeated, and have Trump be a great president. If those things turned out to be true, I’d be celebrating.

    I think both are highly highly highly unlikely, that’s all.

20. Neo. I read Sheriff David Clarke’s piece in The Hill today and was amazed. I wish it was taught in school, read by every journalist and every teenager.

    But…. it’ll be read by the Choir.

    I agree with you in your piece today. I’m prepared to go to the polls and do what Ted Cruz said, “vote your conscience” up and down the ballot. Though in California what will that matter?? Who knows… maybe a big surprise will happen.

    Donald Trump is sooooooooooooo inarticulate and sooooooooo unstudied on policy or issues.

    Everything that he talks about could’ve been said so much better. He never said the word “all” when talking about the Mexicans – but his sentence structure was the worst. Additionally, he could’ve addressed the issue by highlighting what liberals loathe to talk about from the start.

    Unfortunately while he does mention victims of sanctuary cities his way of discussing initially does a disservice to conservatism like no other

    —–
    | x | Donald Trump – NO
    —–

21. My grandchildren hope you’re wrong.

22. Aftfldgr:

    Where have I observed him? I already said: ” his own words in Twitter and debates and interviews.”

    Or do you think when I watch the videotape of interviews with Trump (and in many cases I’m talking about FULL interviews, or excerpts of many many minutes with no cuts), that somehow that is just watching media lies about him?

    Or when I read his own words on Twitter?

    Or when I watch the debates?

    Yes, of course, the questions are asked by the media. But I watch how he answers, and his answers are up to him—as with all candidates.

    Unless you think that it is all photoshopped—in which case perhaps Trump doesn’t even exist and is an artifact of the MSM—I have no idea what you’re getting at.

    I have read the man’s own words and also watched them come out of his mouth.

23. I think the election will turn on two items. One is the debate(s). If Hillary looks bad there will be only one. Two, the possibility that Wiki is going to disclose some fatal story about Hillary before the election. There is a third but I am not hoping for this. There could be a serious terrorist attack in this country. Or race riots could grow and involve another bigger city than those so far.

    My expectation is that the debate will determine the election.

24. PS. I watched the 1976 Carter-Ford debate and knew instantly that Ford had lost the election.

25. At this point, I can still try to be hopeful about national elections for senators and representatives, as well as state and local elections. I’ve never thought that Trump was electable. The evidence for that has always seemed overwhelming.

    Obviously, the presidency is more important than ever, so my only hope is that Hillary’s poor health will prevent her from running for a second term. If she runs again, she’s far from unbeatable.

    Looking forward, I can’t see small-government conservatives becoming a majority in the GOP, much less nationally. I hope that in four years, the Party will have a sane populist candidate who at least respects the values and policies of small-government conservatives. After four years of Hillary, I think such a candidate could win, but who would that be? I have no idea.

26. @GB – no conservative who finds trump awful is pretending any of the things you say they are.

    Again, you hyperbolize your argument, diminishing any bit of credibility it may have.

27. “At this point, I can still try to be hopeful about national elections for senators and representatives, as well as state and local elections” – Cornfour

    That is, indeed, where our proper focus and efforts should be. Retaining GOP dominance in both chambers of Congress will be critical in mitigating clinton’s impact.

28. NeverTrumpers pretend that 15 MILLION new citizens, formerly “undocumented”… will not be decisive in all future elections.

    NeverTrumpers pretend that a near permanent liberal/leftist activist SCOTUS will not “fundamentally transform” the constitution… that the Bill of Rights cannot be ‘amended’.

    NeverTrumpers pretend that ‘it’s too late’… will never come.

    NeverTrumpers imagine that Venezuela could never be a preview of America’s future, despite it already having happened in Detroit, happening in Chicago and arguably, having begun in NYC…

    Trumpers pretend that putting words into the mouths of others makes them true, that there are no scenarios where a Trump victory could be worse than a Hillary victory, and that it is the NeverTrumpers who will lose the election for Trump.

29. “Neo. I read Sheriff David Clarke’s piece in The Hill today and was amazed. I wish it was taught in school, read by every journalist and every teenager. “ – Baklava

    Many of Clarke’s points could also be applied to some of the “conservative” media. This election is a culminating reflection of the destructive viewpoints that have been pushed by several of these opinion leaders, imho.

    We need to watch our side as well as be wary of the other side.

30. Artfldgr:

    I have made the point several times on this blog that, based on the voting record, according to Conservative Review, only one “Republican” Senator has a lower rating than the self-proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders – Susan Collins.

    While the Marxist Party has nothing but Marxists in it, the GOPe has such a wide tent that we even have Marxists of our own.

31. Will Hillary’s health hold up?

    If she’s elected, how long before she has another stroke?

    If elected, how long before Trump is assasinated?

    Pence or Kaine may turn out to be the actual President.

32. Donald Trump – No

    I do not watch ABCCBSNBCCNN or read the NYTimesWashingtonPostLaTimes.

    But I do form my own opinion.

    My opinion is that Donald Trump will create a chasm for conservatives that we won’t be able to cross for a whole generation.

    That is worse than any situation I could think of.

33. 538 now has Trump at 10%. Now there’s a chance to turn $10 into $100 if you can find a bookie to take your bet now. Or maybe wait until the odds get even worse.

    Hey, it’s no fun betting on the favorite, always go for the long shot.

    Hillary is going to win. And who knows what country we will have in 4 years.

34. Neo, your predictions are accurate, especially the blame game after November. Hasta la vista y vaya con Dios.

35. @Neo – I agree the odds today look that way, but I continue to believe this election is too volatile given the unlikability of both candidates. It is unprecedented in our lifetimes.

    It may take very little for the tide to turn, especially if Dems think and behave as if it is a slam dunk. That is precisely what will give trump an opportunity at a win, should something pop on clinton, or obama near election day.

36. Historical note: Although “stab in the back” has been around since we invented knives, its most famous use was after WW I, when it was a popular explanation — in Germany — for Germany’s defeat.

    As you would expect, the funny looking fellow with the little mustache believed it, wholeheartedly.

    For the record: I have been stabbing Trump in the front for months, and plan to continue doing so. So, to her credit, has Neo, and so have many others.

    Now back to writing about other pests, specifically Zika.

37. Trumpians and reluctant trump supporters, when will djt pivot and become a coherent, articulate candidate? When will he demonstrate in words and deeds that he has a 6th grade understanding of the Constitution or a hint of the complexity of the current unstable state of geopolitical affairs. How about his dumb, as in extremely stupid, ‘opinions’ about racking up an additional 6 to 10 trillion of debt over the next 4 years because “interest rates are low” and djt “understands debt”.

    Oh, he is not the shrew queen and that is the end of all argument. Never mind, I stand corrected by your acumen.

38. I am absolutely counting on Trump destroying Hillary in the debates and massively damaging emails being leaked.

39. Everyone!

    The polls today won’t be the polls in November.

40. “Everyone! The polls today won’t be the polls in November.” – Cornhead

    Correct. They are only a snapshot in time. Each campaign team, and external events do change the outcome.

    But, for trump to have suddenly drop this low in the polls, when he was bragging about the polls throughout most of his nomination race as some sort of “proof” he is the right candidate to choose (because he can “Win!”), it is a double whammy.

    It was a poor choice to make that such a key talking point.

41. I too predict a loss, likely big, for Trump. When I it sunk in last April he was going to be the nominee, I realized he would almost certainly lose in the general election. I’ve been living with that future ever since, so the Binary Choice has never felt like a real dilemma for me.

    After his bounce at the end of the Republican convention I began to think a Trump victory might be possible, but Trump himself stomped that lead down in short order. In retrospect it seems his rise was in part fueled by that terrible run of near-daily Islamic terrorism.

    Trump could still win but it would require large external events to push voters to voting for Trump. Left to his own devices, Trump is not going to win over non-Trump voters, as we have seen.

    Four years of Hillary will be very grim indeed. Richard Fernandez of the Belmont Club blog says it will be “a near-death experience” for the country, but believes it will be such a disaster it will be the last progressive administration for a generation or more.

    Nations rise, nations fall. There is no guarantee America will bounce back from an Obama third-term. A nation which elected Obama twice, then chose Hillary and Trump to replace him, is a nation whose people are so weak, gullible and angry they will only learn from the hard lessons ahead, after the country has hit bottom, and maybe not even then.

42. I agree with everything except Fiorina.
    There’s no way the GOPe will let her be RNC chairperson. She’s an actual conservative. She would continually make them look bad (which they actually are), and they can’t have that.
    Cruz is already almost more than they can deal with.

    They will get rid of Priebus in the same way DWS was gotten rid of for Dems (i.e. a promotion for services rendered), and the GOPe will nominate some anonymous yes-man they can control. If he has to, Priebus will fall on his sword on the way out the door since that’s the actual job of RNC chairperson: lightning rod to insulate the establishment.

43. Cornhead@6:39,

    Didn’t your mama or papa tell you about counting chicks before they hatch? 😉 Of what you wish becareful. Change spots leapords can not.

44. For all those poll conspiracy theorists…

    Breitbart/Gravis Poll: Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump 42% to 37% Nationally in 4-Way with Johnson 9%, Stein 3%
    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/14/breitbartgravis-poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-42-to-37/

    Probably the most unbiased poll out there, if Breitbart is backing it.

45. huxley,

    Djt never imagined he would get this far and now he is in panic mode. I fail to see what else explains his post convention behavior. He continues to attack conservatives, yet fails to attack hrc other than the occasional “crooked hillary” blather.

    Walks like, quacks like.

46. Cornhead Says:

    “But how did we get to this place?”

    Trump supporters only woke up mid-2015 when the GOPe betrayal became obvious. Having never paid attention to details before then, they didn’t know who to trust.

    They were angry and ignorant.

    Trump pushed all their emotional buttons regarding the things they hated: illegal immigration and political correctness. Those are the policy and social issues that permeate the entire country, and even the willfully blind can’t escape them.

    Through a combination of lies, ridicule, and smears Trump disqualified all other candidates until only 3 remained (2.5, actually). The MSM heaped on the free coverage to boost Trump, and he didn’t complain because it helped him. His supporters mistook this for magical media kung fu powers.

    Finally, the bandwagon effect took over in Indiana and Cruz was forced out.

    The GOPe calculated that they could deal with Trump instead of Cruz, so they helped him where they could (Kasich, Fox News). They are cynical opportunists, and thought they could benefit from the Trump train.

    Then Trump started shooting his mouth off again, but the media MYSTERIOUSLY turned on him. He also started attacking the GOPe by refusing to endorse certain people. The establishment rats started fleeing the sinking ship.

    Now, it’s far too late to do anything about it.

    I blame Trump supporters for neither anger nor ignorance. I’m angry too, and for many of the same reasons. I do expect them to learn why they lost though, so it won’t happen next time.

47. I am absolutely counting on Trump destroying Hillary in the debates and massively damaging emails being leaked.

    You’d better count on that — it’s the only hope left for Trump, aside from another 9-11 or such.

    However, consider:

    * In 2012 Obama won in spite of a terrible debate during which he spent half the time staring at his shoes.

    * Hillary survived nine hours of being grilled on Benghazi.

    * Trump’s outrageousness is not the fresh disruptor weapon it was six months ago. Hillary’s advisers have had plenty of time to plan for Trump.

    * I’m skeptical Trump’s tactics will work as well one-on-one.

    * I’m also skeptical Trump has done his homework so he won’t sound like a fool when he is trying to sound intelligent.

    * The media is now fully gunning for Trump.

48. GB,

    Do you ever ponder if what you imagine is merely what you imagine? I imagine that bluster and blather put aside, djt is no less a NYT progressive than hrc. Yes, caeser or alinsky, but cancer is cancer is cancer. Vote your conscience and I will vote mine come November.

49. “@GB — no conservative who finds trump awful is pretending any of the things you say they are.” Big Maq

    Like hell they haven’t. If in a swing state, a refusal to vote for Trump is prima facie evidence of those premises because under Hillary or Kaine all of that will come to pass. And in denying that to be implicit to the NeverTrump position, it is you whose credibility is called into question.

    huxley,

    First of all, I am not a ‘Trumper’ and never have been. An implicit accusation by you, since you’re responding to my comment. I am not putting words in NeverTrumpers mouths, those observations are implicit to their position of never voting for the lesser of two evils.

    We can only guess what Trump will do but there is certainty of what Hillary means to do, so there is no factual support for the circumstantial speculation that Trump could be worse.

    I’ve previously and clearly stated that I disagree that NeverTrumpers could lose the election for Trump. So you’re either thinking of someone else or engaging in stereotyping.

    parker,

    Your choice is between a fraud promising to repair your storm damaged home and a woman whose life long ambition is to level it. And yes, that trumps all. No acumen needed, just a dollop of common sense.

50. Djt never imagined he would get this far and now he is in panic mode.

    parker: That’s pretty much my take.

    I also wonder if he isn’t unconsciously sabotaging himself because he doesn’t really want to be President and knows he isn’t up to it.

51. Well, Neo you stirred the pot a bit. It has become obvious that this is now a “personality” campaign; and the favored candidate will be excused anything. The blame game is in full swing; e.g., the media and the establishment are to blame. Trump’s own words cherry picked with abandon.

    I have the sense that Trump–and Hillary–may do for the political culture what Obama, and his allies, have done for race relations.

    I have TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome). I am actually sick of seeing his name and his face, and reading the excuses. I am really sick of the attitude of many of his apologists. On another site someone accused me of being a back stabbing traitor to conservatism and the GOP because I have not fallen into line. Of course, having voted for Ike, Nixon, Goldwater, Nixon (again), Ford, Reagan, GWHB, Dole, GWB, McCain, and Romney, I feel as though I have been faithful to conservative principles and to the GOP as well. My sin this time was to say something positive about Paul Ryan.

    The down ticket is crucial. Reports are that, understanding this, the “Establishment” will exert maximum effort to hold the Congress in the face of a potential Presidential debacle. A contribution directly to the RNC may be in order this cycle.

    (By the way; a bit off topic, but informative, I saw a link to a great article in the Christian Science Monitor of ten years ago that reported how President Eisenhower stopped illegal immigration cold in the face of opposition from such as LBJ, and others whose supporters profited from cheap labor. Interestingly, his policies were effective for about ten years–or until LBJ was in the White House. Trump talks, Ike acted. He didn’t build a wall, he didn’t throw rhetoric at the problem, he just made sure the law was enforced. http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0706/p09s01-coop.html?cmpid=gigya-tw)

52. GB Says:

    “…so there is no factual support for the circumstantial speculation that Trump could be worse.”

    Other than his views on national debt, nuclear proliferation, and using US troops to murder the families (i.e. women and children) of terrorists.

    Yeah, not a shred of proof.

53. First of all, I am not a ‘Trumper’ and never have been. An implicit accusation by you, since you’re responding to my comment. I am not putting words in NeverTrumpers mouths, those observations are implicit to their position of never voting for the lesser of two evils.

    GB: I was just following your sloppy obnoxious comment style.

    I reject your implicit observations as accurate for the NeverTrumpers I’ve read and you certainly don’t speak for me. For instance, not voting for Trump in 2016 doesn’t mean one never votes for the lesser of two evils.

54. parker,

    I have long pondered my assertions and continue to be open to reasoned persuasion. Again, I say that the danger is NOT Trump or Hillary. The danger is what forces that they have by their side that stand ready to assist them.

    I perceive no metric or calculus where it can be credibly asserted that the alt-right can threaten the republic nearly as much as, much less more, than the Left.

    Yes of course an authoritarian, out-of-control President Trump could do great damage but IMO not nearly as much as the Left is on the precipice of accomplishing. A President Hillary + near permanent leftist/liberal SCOTUS + a collaborative Congress spells the end of the American Republic.

    Nor is that simply my opinion but expressly warned about by the founding fathers.

    To gaze upon the accomplishments of the Left, their inroads into every American institution and their massive network of organized activists and not foresee the nearly here completion of our fundamental transformation is IMO, an appalling level of denial.

    Of course I pray that I am gravely mistaken, just as neo does about Trump but everything I see leads me to the opposite conclusion.

55. I forget where we talked about the influence of “conservative” media, in shaping this race, but here is something interesting…

    “My Gut: Trump Beats Hillary in Landslide” – rush limbaugh – May 4, 2016
    http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/05/04/my_gut_trump_beats_hillary_in_landslide

    “‘I’ve gone to great lengths to try to explain to people what it is about Trump, why he has his supporters, why they support . him …

    by the way, leaving it to the American people to figure out hasn’t worked out well, either, has it? …

    (the Dems) haven’t figured out the media wants Trump in the White House because it’s gonna be the most fun four years they’ve ever had” – rush

56. “I have long pondered my assertions and continue to be open to reasoned persuasion.” – GB

    This would be believable, IF you didn’t make such an exaggerated case and erroneously assume so much wrt the arguments being put towards you.

57. “Other than his views on national debt, nuclear proliferation, and using US troops to murder the families (i.e. women and children) of terrorists.” Matt_SE

    Do you honestly imagine that we can get out of this fiscal mess without further indebtedness? (Not that escaping our fiscal mess is going to happen)

    Nuclear proliferation is coming and cannot be stopped, welcome to the world the Left has wrought. Do you wish for only the bad guys to have nukes? Maybe we should surrender now.

    Using US troops to murder the families (i.e. women and children) of terrorists was stupid and an expression of ignorance, given that the jihadists don’t care about their families, as they would just be more martyrs for Allah.

    Which in no way obviates Trump’s intuition that a way must be found to bring consequence to jihadist terrorists. At least he senses that much, unlike Hillary, (your effective candidate) who guarantees that the barbarians will continue through civilization’s gate.

    huxley,

    Sloppy and obnoxious? Thanks for keeping the discussion on a high note. Reject logical implication all you wish, it’s entirely in keeping with denial. Nor am I speaking for you, you’ve already done that.

58. You better hope you are wrong as we can’t have a criminal as President.

    Why not? Most recent Presidents have broken laws, sometimes quite serious ones.

    Nixon, obviously. Not just Watergate, but such things as incursions into Cambodia.

    Lyndon Johnson with regard to Vietnam too. He dragged the US into a position it never wanted over the Gulf of Tonkin.

    Reagan with the whole Iran-Contra thing. His fans don’t like to admit it, but he was always acting illegally, even down to lying that he “couldn’t remember”.

    But do broken laws and lies only count if it is Democrats?

    There’s only one recent President that I would guess has not broken a serious law, and that would be Jimmy Carter.

59. @ GB,

    “…unlike Hillary, (your effective candidate)…”

    Thanks for keeping the discussion on a high note.

    BTW, wanton murder of civilians is a war crime/Geneva convention violation in addition to being against US law. This is not the kind of statement that a sane person EVER makes, let alone a presidential candidate.
    You’re free to believe this is another example of Trump’s n-dimensional chess skills if you wish, but realize that a great many other Americans are alarmed by it.

    THAT is why NeverTrump exists, not kooky conspiracy theories or delusions that we’re all on the government payroll somehow.

60. Neo:
    “I am undecided about when and how there might be a recovery from all of this on the right”

    There’s only one how: a permanent, sufficiently competitive social activist movement that’s independent of the GOP.

    As for when, years – decades – ago, but barring time travel, then now.

    Every moment that conservatives fail to collectively become a competitive social activist movement is another moment they’ll be further marginalized by opposing factions that employ the necessary activism. Especially the Left-mimicking (possibly Left-crossover) Trump-front alt-Right which is setting up their Gramscian march on the political space seized from activism-averse conservatives and intend to keep it.

    Neo:
    “Will the GOP survive? I don’t know, although I think it will.”

    The question is whether conservatives’ political relevance will survive. Political obsolescence is beckoning.

    The lesson for conservatives of the Right, which they should have been learned years – decades – ago, and should be crystal clear now after the 2015-2016 GOP primary race, is that conservatives cannot pass the buck to the GOP on the activist game, the full spectrum of participatory politics that subsumes electoral politics.

    Conservatives must collectively become full activist. With that fundamental change in place, they can continue to work with the GOP, but conservatives must stop doing so dependently and begin to do so from an independent activist position of strength, like the Left’s relationship with the Democrats.

    The GOP will become more reliable, effective, and accountable once conservatives do their part in the activist game.

61. I can’t claim to have carefully read every comment, but I’ve scanned them all, and I think we’re starting to sound repetitive.

    Here’s an alternative. I’ve never been much of a betting man, but maybe this would be a good time to start. I’ve read that Vegas sports books are taking wagers on Trump vs. Hillary, but I don’t think online Vegas gambling is legal in the US (???).

    So … naturally I did a Google search. Here are a couple sites that offer online betting on the election:

    1) Paddypower Sport (http://tinyurl.com/lbwnjkg)
    2) Bovada Sportsbook (http://tinyurl.com/hsqcvoy)

    Has anybody heard of these? Know a better way to bet? Maybe Neo can act as a bookie, for — let’s just say — a 10% cut?

    One way or another, it’s time for some of us to put up or shut up. What’s holding me back? Although Trump’s odds have greatly improved over the last year, Hillary’s still a significant favorite, so it’s hard to make any money by betting on her. Maybe I should just send a check to the Clinton Foundation, or invest in a company that will benefit from her brand of crony capitalism.

    Any other ideas on how to make money from her election? Or from Trump’s, if that’s what you believe?

62. Matt_SE ,

    Asserting that you’re effectively (practically speaking) defaulting to Hillary Clinton in preference to Trump is not equivalent to accusing you of sloppiness, much less being obnoxious. The former is a conclusion as to consequence, the latter a personal attack.

    My understanding is that targeting ISIS strongholds, knowing that women and children will die is not a violation of the Geneva accords, as ISIS is not a signatory of those accords, which a nation must be in order for them to apply. Which makes sense, as you can’t have the accords only apply to one side. As for it being a war crime, I would ask if Hiroshima was also a war crime? If not, what is the difference?

    Most Americans are alarmed at Trump and mildly sanguine about Hillary. Which establishes their acumen.

    When have I ever asserted that NeverTrumpers are all on the government payroll? I understand the animus and even share much of it. It’s the priority we assign in evaluating the nature of the actual threat, wherein we primarily disagree.

63. “social activist movement that’s independent of the GOP” – Eric

    Any proposals of how this gets started and organized?

    A Tea Party like structure?

    “conservatives cannot pass the buck to the GOP on the activist game, the full spectrum of participatory politics”

    From what I’ve observed, it has been a general lack of involvement, leaving to others to shape the process, the priorities, and the end results – all right within the GOP.

64. Chester Draws,

    That you draw equivalence between Presidents who however mistakenly, most egregious violation of our laws was arguably in service to our national security with a Presidential candidate who repeatedly betrayed our national security… reveals much about your moral confusion.

    Jimmy Carter’s moral rectitude is only exceeded by his antisemitism. He’s diligent in the small things, while willfully blind to supporting genocidal aims.

65. “This is the real potential disaster of 2016: That legitimate economic discontent is going to be dismissed as bigotry and xenophobia for years to come.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/13/trump-clinton-election-chances-moderate-policies-economy

66. It sure didn’t take long to get to 60+ comments.
    As Cornhead pointed out, it’s getting repetitive.

    So here’s a novel point of view from Ann Althouse:

    Let’s assume that Trump is actually flexible enough to get out of the race while the getting is good.

    He got out of Atlantic City at the right time, didn’t he? He likes to win, and winning can be defined as getting out at a high point and not being there for the big loss. And – as the post title jogs you to think – Trump likes to be flexible. He believes in surprises.

    [snip]

    She will waste effort attacking him, her ultimate non-opponent. And he can be as cruel as he thinks could be effective – and as showy and outrageous as will serve his interest going forward in his media career.

    [snip]

    What freedom he has right now! What power!

    The link:

    althouse.blogspot.com (August 12, 2016 @ 6:12 pm)

67. GB,

    Well, we must disagree and respect each other for our disparate decisions, because we need not question the sincerity of our respective POV. Others, I question their motivations and their judgment. You, I cut a few yards of slack. 😉

    However, you and artfldgr (a professed in with the in crowd trumpian) seem unwilling to answer a rather simple question, when will the grand presidential donald pivot arrive? Again, your answer is hrc blah, blah, blah. But you offer no reason to convince me that there is in the final analysis a micron of difference between the two.

68. @ GB:

    “Asserting that you’re effectively (practically speaking) defaulting to Hillary Clinton in preference to Trump is not equivalent to accusing you of sloppiness, much less being obnoxious. The former is a conclusion as to consequence, the latter a personal attack.”

    But I’ve said I’m voting for Trump. I just refuse to lie for him. If you’re implying that I’m insufficiently enthusiastic, you’re half-right: I’m unenthusiastic, but in just the right amount when dealing with a slime like Trump.

    What you’ve done is engage in the regular Trumpkin fallback tactic of emotional bullying. I will note that if you’re willing to use it now, you will be using it forever because the Democrat WILL ALWAYS BE WORSE.
    You have traded away your independence and ability to hold your own party accountable.

    “My understanding is that targeting ISIS strongholds, knowing that women and children will die is not a violation of the Geneva accords…”

    Trump didn’t say that there would be unavoidable casualties of war, especially from bombing which is what you’re referring to:

    “At tonight’s Fox News debate, Bret Baier confronted Donald Trump over former NSA/CIA Director Michael Hayden‘s recent remarks that the military would flat-out refuse to follow illegal orders of his.

    Specifically troubling for Hayden was Trump saying he would want to do ‘worse’ than torture and would want soldiers to kill terrorists’ families.

    Baier told Trump the latter is explicitly illegal, but Trump insisted, ‘They won’t refuse. They’re not gonna refuse me. Believe me.'”
    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/trump-the-military-would-not-refuse-my-orders-even-if-they-consider-them-illegal/

    That is the intentional targeting of civilians (and in context, he was referring to individual soldiers on an individual level), and is absolutely a war crime. How can you apologize for such a reckless statement? Oh yeah…Hillary is worse!
    (now a questionable position)

    “I would ask if Hiroshima was also a war crime? If not, what is the difference?”

    The difference is that 1) World War II was an existential crisis for the Allied Powers, 2) the atomic bomb had never been used before, 3) Hiroshima and Nagasaki were also military targets IIRC, and 4) forcing Japan to surrender would actually save millions of lives expected to be lost in the invasion of the Japanese homeland.

    You’ll note that none of those conditions apply to MURDERING the families of terrorists.

    You’ve been worked into such an ideological lather that you’ve lost your perspective. This is by design.

69. We had a criminal POTUS in Andrew Jackson, as greedy for $$ as slick willy and his shrew. There have been others, but Jackson is a poster child. Corrupt is ehe, djt just as corrupt.

70. T:

    Trump already has more freedom and power than he’s ever had before.

    And he would have even more freedom and more power if he were to somehow manage to become president. I don’t think he’d feel constrained by anything or anybody.

71. One thing for sure, even on this site (known in my own experience for its overwhelmingly rational discourse), it seems very difficult even for many commenters to be indifferent about Trump.

    I just remark that all we have at this point is opinion. We should all, myself included, guard against being too emotionally invested in these opinions.

    We do live in interesting times.

72. parker,

    In part, we do disagree but I have never thought to question your sincerity. Indeed, I hold you in high regard. Though I find some here to be gravely mistaken, as they do I, it is only their rationale that I question. I have never thought them insincere either.

    I’ll gladly answer your question.

    Never.

    I don’t expect Trump to ever pivot toward a new Presidential demeanor because, until proven otherwise, I do not perceive the man to be genuinely capable of it. Oh, for brief periods he can act that way, when it’s to his advantage. I’m confident he can turn on the charm when needed but as soon as someone criticizes him, the real Trump emerges.

    I’m fairly sure that Trump wants America to continue to be the strongest champion of liberty in the world. Hillary wants something vastly different and that alone is much, much more than a microns difference. But even if you’re right about them personally, Trump will never have the backing of the Left. He’s a social liberal and a crony capitalist but not an Alinskyite.

    And it’s the backing of the Left and where they currently stand in their March through our Institutions, wherein the real difference and issue lies.

    That’s not a difficult point to understand. But a response of “things aren’t that bad!” without a supporting rationale is not a valid rebuttal, which leaves me to conclude that denial is at play.

73. Walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, swims like a duck, but that duck is only a reluctant Trump duck and all who aren’t ducks like him are, well, not Trump ducks. Bad, bad, bad, they are. But that Trump duck he is wise.

    “I perceive no metric or calculus where it can be credibly asserted that the alt-right can threaten the republic nearly as much as, much less more, than the Left.”

    Maybe the Trump duck knows the differential equations or Chaos Theory that allows him to know with certainty and confidence what HRC will do, but not know what DJT won’t do. Or maybe he really doesn’t know either after all.

74. Matt_SE,

    I’m not disputing it but that is the first time I can recall you saying you’ll be voting for Trump. I applaud your refusal to make excuses for him and am confident that a fair, careful reading of my comments shows the same. But I also refuse to assume the worst of the man.

    I have no intent to engage in “emotional bullying” show me where I’ve done so. Understanding that frank speech is not bullying, just because “feathers are ruffled”.

    Given their ideology, the democrat will always be worse. Stating that neither forfeits my independence nor contradicts my ability to hold those elected accountable.

    I watched that exchange between Trump and Baier. Of course Trump was wrong on the specifics and went much too far. Yes, he stuck his foot firmly in his mouth. Which, as reprehensible as that is, still beats the hell out of Hillary’s nonexistent ‘strategy’.

    As, on the underlying subtext he was stating that he’s going to “bring a gun” to ISIS’ “knife fight”. He was promising to beat them by whatever means are necessary because losing to barbarians is not an option. That is of vital importance, far more than Trump’s frat boy bluster because…

    Islam IS an existential crisis for the West and every bit as much of a mortal threat, as were the Axis powers. Truman knew full well what would be the result of using the atomic bomb. Any ISIS stronghold is a military target because we are at war with them, whether we admit it or not. Stopping Islam and it’s proxy jihadists will save millions of lives. And if we don’t stop them, the eventual carnage will greatly exceed WWII’s death toll.

    But I do agree that ordering our military to specifically murder terrorist’s families is illegal and totally unacceptable. Whereas, Clinton will restrict her murdering to Americans.

75. “Truman knew full well what would be the result of using the atomic bomb.”

    Oops – that’s new “history” and not factual Followed by hyperbole about the evil Shrew Queen (tm – Parker).

76. I thought there must be something wrong with my idea of Trump stepping down and passing the baton to Mike Pence, but now the Wall Street Journal editorial board is calling for it if Trump won’t grow up.

    Those who sold Mr. Trump to GOP voters as the man who could defeat Hillary Clinton now face a moment of truth. Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Paul Manafort and the talk-radio right told Republicans their man could rise to the occasion.

    If they can t get Mr. Trump to change his act by Labor Day, the GOP will have no choice but to write off the nominee as hopeless and focus on salvaging the Senate and House and other down-ballot races. As for Mr. Trump, he needs to stop blaming everyone else and decide if he wants to behave like someone who wants to be President or turn the nomination over to Mike Pence.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-self-reckoning-1471213081

    I’d like to see some polling on this, but it seems to me a Pence candidacy would be such a relief to so many Republicans and Democrats that Pence pull even or better with Hillary almost immediately.

    Hey, Binary Choicers! Shouldn’t you be calling for Trump to step down if defeating Hillary is the absolutely the most important thing in the world?

    If not, why not?

77. GB said last night: “To gaze upon the accomplishments of the Left, their inroads into every American institution and their massive network of organized activists and not foresee the nearly here completion of our fundamental transformation is IMO, an appalling level of denial.”

    Here at the college I teach we have the usual collection of leftists, one of whom is a black history professor/dean. As such he is a bit of a local celeb. I never understood the depth of the leftist organization and what we are facing until is a meeting that he was at he made an offhand comment about a radio interview he recently did. His comment was that he was in contact with the DC office to make sure he had all his talking points aligned with the national views. At that point I knew we have a big problem and are so far behind the curve that no amount of organizing can ever catch us up.

    It’s sounds paranoid, but they are fully organized and coordinated to take this country down.

78. Huxley:

    Calling for Trump to withdraw would be asking Trump supporters to face certain probabilities; that continued support for Trump ensures a Hillary election. To much invested in the “our way or the highway” thought process, almost a denial of reality. But then Trump is the master arsonist for the “meat puppets.”

79. “Whereas, Clinton will restrict her murdering to Americans.” – GB

    You continue down this line of overwrought / exaggerated claims.

    “the democrat will always be worse”

    And, this is the core of the issue. There is no limit to opposing clinton, if this his your proposition.

    You reinforce that with your comment re: atomic bombing. Like the scenario we face is ANYTHING like it was in WWII against Japan. There are so many avenues of attack to take before we turn it up to “eleven” and go full nuclear.

    And that is just it. Irrational thinking like this is what trump demonstrates, and it is something that stops most from trusting him with the nuclear keys.

    If one constructs such a strawman world of imminent existential threat, even in our politics, then no wonder it is easy to think it “obvious and rational” that nothing is evil in the combat to destroying all those other “evils” we face. There is no worthwhile ground between where we stand and their total and complete destruction.

    Sincere, maybe yes. Rational, no.

80. We finally have a third party candidate to fight for the future

    Moronic Millennials Think Karl Marx is 3rd Party Presidential Candidate Challenging Hillary & Trump
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWB8B614jac

81. Interesting thread. I realize that for the most part the two sides are just talking past each other. But hopefully some mutual benefit is being realized.

    I can’t predict this election, but it is – as many have stated – the most bizarre election I’ve ever experienced. This time around the GOP has earned the Stupid Party moniker, with an oak leaf cluster.

    Sometimes good things come out of destruction – my hope is that a new, revitalized conservative party can rise from these ashes. But it’s just a hope.

    One thing I’ve observed – and commented on before – is that the main argument FOR Trump is that he’s not HRC. That is certainly the go-to for just about everyone on this thread who plans to vote for Trump, with the exception of Artful, who has put forth some positives on Trump (although getting excited about a Trump-read Teleprompter speech is not the most compelling argument from my point of view, because he has shown himself to be dishonest and flip-floppy as any politician I’ve ever seen, and that’s saying something)

    Here’s the caution I would give. In my experience, a President gets elected when he has enthusiastic support.

    I enthusiastically voted for Reagan, GHWB, GWB

    I less-enthusiastically voted for Dole, McCain, and Romney, because my main motivation was to try to unseat Clinton and Obama.

    In other words, voting for someone just to prevent their opponent from winning is not usually, in my opinion, enough. Trump has to lay out a positive reason or reasons for people like me to vote for him, beyond just “I’m not her”. He hasn’t shown much interest in that, and has in fact indicated he doesn’t need my vote.

    The X-factor here is that support for HRC may be unenthusiastic as well. But I know young people who are terrified of a Trump presidency – I’m just not sure he can win with jus alt-right supporters combined with the nose-holders. I don’t think it’s enough. But I’m usually wrong.

    I do feel pretty solid about this prediction: if Trump loses, his followers will be breathing bloody vengeance against people like me (I’m a Never Trumper, and have always been). Because nothing’s ever his fault. It could get ugly. I hope not.

82. Interesting question – what’s Trump spending his money on, since he’s not buying TV ads or working on a ground game.

    I’m no conspiracy theorist, but the feeling this is one long con keeps growing

    ww.weeklystandard.com/trump-spent-63-million-in-july.-where-did-all-that-money-go/article/2003833

83. Bad link: should be http://www.weeklystandard.com/trump-spent-63-million-in-july.-where-did-all-that-money-go/article/2003833

84. “Trump has to lay out a positive reason or reasons for people like me to vote for him, beyond just “I’m not her”.” – Bill

    As I’ve made a similar point/request, not sure I’d classify that as “talking past one another”. It is easy to feel that way when it is not acknowledged, or the response is so exaggerated.

    I want a solid rationale for trump other than “not clinton”.

    A positive agenda is one factor in winning – a critical one for many (most?) – voters. Even that alone is insufficient.

85. “Interesting question — what’s Trump spending his money on, since he’s not buying TV ads or working on a ground game.” – Bill

    It is also interesting why trump is spending time in states he has no chance in.

    Looks like CO and PA are now two of them…
    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-08-15/clinton-super-pac-going-dark-in-colorado-and-pennsylvania

86. “Truman knew full well what would be the result of using the atomic bomb.” GB

    “Oops — that’s new “history” and not factual” OM

    It’s entirely factual. Truman was fully briefed on the destructive power of the bomb and the projected casualties, before he ordered it used. He later stated that he “never lost a moments sleep over using it”. As the decision was easy; 100’s of thousands VS millions of deaths.

    Big Maq,

    How could you forget Benghazi? Hillary Clinton already bears some responsibility for the murder of Americans. Which disproves your labeling as, ‘overwrought exaggeration’ my assertion that as President, Hillary would be directly responsible for the deaths of many more Americans.

    “the democrat will always be worse” because of the ideology they advocate, which will inescapably result in tyranny because ever greater levels of control are inherently necessary to that ideology’s survival.

    Oligarchies and crony capitalism are oppressive but far less so than Marxist regimes.

    Here’s a preview of America’s future that Hillary intends; “London Mayor To Set Up Police ‘Online Hate Crime Hub’ In ‘Partnership’ With Social Media Firms”

    It doesn’t take prescience to see where that leads, just a willingness to face a grim reality. Enjoy your cocoon of denial while ye may.

87. @GB – Dude, you talk about using the bomb, like it is necessary to stop “Islam and it’s proxy jihadists”.

    Then you say that using our military to murder Islamist families is “totally unacceptable”.

    Which is it? Surely such a tool cannot be so fine tuned as to only target those who are military targets?

    Then, you add the rejoinder that “Whereas, Clinton will restrict her murdering to Americans”.

    That implies some moral equivalent between the scale and target of ISIS type terrorism to clinton “murdering Americans”.

    It is rather overwrought to make like clinton has intent to target Americans, and make an equivalency where there is none.

    Now you walk it back by bringing up Benghazi, like the rest of us are unaware of the implications of that mistake.

    You mistake questioning your rationale for trump or for an apocalyptic future imminent within these next four years, as not having any “prescience” about clinton, if not a full buy in to her presidency.

    Not the case.

    One has the feeling that if clinton wins and four years down the road we are still at this blog discussing the next election, the same apocalyptic “prescience” will be argued just as emphatically, despite its failure to appear the prior four years as “foreseen”.

    There is enough downside with clinton that we don’t need to overstate the case against her.

    This circles back to the “not clinton” argument and the failure provide a positive case for trump.

88. Great article about polls and their use…
    https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2016/08/16/a-wakeup-call-for-donald-trump/?singlepage=true

89. I call BS on GB regarding “Truman was fully briefed on the destructive power of the bomb and the projected casualties, before he ordered it used.” They expected yield of Fat Man was uncertain. Little Boy was a different design (U vs Pu) and less of a risk.

    The rest is factual about Truman’s decision and rationale to avoid the necessity of Operation Olympic.

    links please

90. I agree with Neo: the only way that Sec. Hillary Clinton loses this election is if something catastrophic occurs (e.g. she has a stroke in public such that the MSM can’t cover it up). I’ve been saying this for more than two years. And even though Trump is a terrible candidate, it doesn’t matter. I’ve known for some time that she would win against anyone the GOP could possibly run against her. Against Trump, Hillary wins by a huge electoral college margin.

    Now, if the GOP is smart, they will realize that people don’t trust Hillary and will campaign hard to keep both houses of congress under GOP control. They should tell the public that someone needs to act as a check on power to Hillary. Sadly, I’m not certain that this will work. First of all, the GOP just isn’t that smart. Secondly, the GOP has promised this before, and they failed to deliver. After years of promising to fight against the DNC’s bad ideas and folding constantly, getting out the vote will be tough. And finally, it really doesn’t matter. President Hillary Clinton will continue to do what President Obama has started: condense all power in the Executive branch, making the Congress and the Judiciary basically irrelevant.

    Still, the GOP should make an effort. First of all, if Hillary wins the Congress, she has more legitimacy for her attacks on the Constitution, and we will have few ways to investigate the inevitable corruption that follows. It would be better for Hillary to act as a dictator, over the objections of a GOP Congress, and fail. Furthermore, Hillary has never shown an ability to understand limits. A GOP Congress is an invitation for her to overreach. Perhaps we, as a country, can salvage something.

91. @kevino – you may want to read this comment from Neo, re: “GOP… folding constantly”…
    http://neoneocon.com/2016/08/11/would-a-trump-defeat-have-a-marked-down-ballot-effect/#comment-1530452

    GOP took firm stands where they could… It is why Obama started to move to the active use of executive action.

92. Bush II stopped John Fing Kerry in 2004. Now look where he is at. No matter what the election results of 2016 is, America will still fall to evil. It is human cyclical inevitability at this point.

    It may take a few years or even a decade for the Civil War 2 I said was inevitable to go hot, but sooner or later, the factions in America will settle the issue, one way or another. Not with elections.

93. It doesn’t take prescience to see where that leads, just a willingness to face a grim reality. Enjoy your cocoon of denial while ye may.

    That’s not something you should say or write, GB, since a few years ago you claimed that Leftists/moderate Democrats would fight to the death to protect our right to speech in America, presumably because they are fellow Americans.

    That’s the fatal mistake of thinking Leftists or Democrats are different because they have political differences. No, they are different because they are evil, and even if you recognize it now, that doesn’t take away from your past views.

    So for you to criticize other people for what you also fell for and have fallen into, is something but quite right it is not prescience.

    Neo, the NeverTrumpers are stabbing themselves in the back.

    Twitter movements don’t have a back. By definition of their existence, they aren’t an organization. The factions that compose #NeverTrump are complicated, much like BLM. Many of them are also NeverCruz, in an alternative timeline.

94. As has been said, wrt Trump, we have an advantage: The media won’t be covering for him.

95. It’s sounds paranoid, but they are fully organized and coordinated to take this country down.

    By some token of insight, connecting the dots between several Leftist factions like the unions in 2007, unveiled the Left’s true power to me. Over time afterwards, additional research and connecting the dots solidified those suspicions.

    People who want to see the truth and are willing to pay the price to see it, will usually get what they pay for. Those who stick their head in the sand thinking the nation or the world will save them… will also get the appropriate recompense.

    From a statistical point of view, it is also easy to see evil if one wanted to, although correlation is not causation.

    From a Christian point of view, being educated by the Holy Ghost is superior to research into mundane human affairs.

96. Big Maq Says:
    August 15th, 2016 at 9:23 pm
    “social activist movement that’s independent of the GOP” — Eric

    Any proposals of how this gets started and organized?

    A Tea Party like structure?

    Churches. The Left has used Christian churches, self proclaimed followers of Christ, like the WestBoro Baptists to conduct political operations. The real Christians also have a similar network, since Jesus was one of the first to overturn a situation where the entire world (Roman world) was against you. However, so long as freedom of religion operates in the US, those churches do not want to go active or openly political, thus you do not see them fight against the Left, except on a moral level.

    I’ll give some hints for people who want specifics. The Left wants to abort new souls coming unto this Earth, presumably because Lucifer already has his special picked out squad and doesn’t want any additional reinforcements for his enemies. Each soul on this Earth, born to this Earth, has a choice of siding with good or evil. Thus the creation of life opposes Lucifer or evil, thus which modern nations and organizations have a birth rate higher than 3.0? If a birth rate higher than 3.0 can be established, then that organization is either blessed by God or blessed by Lucifer, given the corrupting nature of the modern world.

    On the other hand, there are 4th generational cells already operating in the US. Except they fight for the patriotic side, not the Leftist regime’s side. Recruitment is not necessarily high on their lists atm.

    As people begin to learn more fully what the true nature and true power of the Leftist alliance is, they will begin to desire a savior or a power great enough to defeat the Left. However, what power is great enough to defeat evil? If having the largest army and the best military power could defeat evil, how then has America fallen when the military has not been defeated?

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