A few days ago I thought that the Government (either this one or another one to be installed post a snap election) would have to go along with the withdrawal and I still think that this is probably true but there is now a growing possibility that Parliament will not vote for withdrawal. The referendum was only advisory so if a party puts in their manifesto that they won’t withdraw (or that they’ll hold another vote) and then wins the election they will claim a mandate for remaining. Of course that will leave 17mm very angry voters and precipitate a different crisis. Interesting times.
After all his hub bub, UK will have to leave.
The smart thing is for the UK to be some kind of associate member status with the EU and little to no tariffs.
The people are finding out the conspiracy theorists idea of globalist elite dissolving borders and taking the world, has been their project behind their pretending to represent you
unless they twick em, they will leave
and most of the rest of the EU will dissolve
and the european soviet will be gone
and the american soviet will be in question
They even had articles saying american union this morning.
and there is some really odd other things, but there is no discussion here on them, so its a waste.. just pay attention to the distraction, ignore the other things…
The elite global financial overlords and the elite of the Labour party are going to attempt to reverse course. But as LT notes, attempts to back away from the brexit vote will have consequences. What may make reversal diffiicult is the brexit passed with the help of votes from the working class base of the Labour Party.
Nigel Farage at the EU ‘parliment’ today enjoyed reminding the bureaucrats that they have laughed at him for saying his goal was to sever the UK from the shackles of the EU but they were not laughing today. He and Cruz might one day be the 2nd coming of the Thatcher and Reagan alliance. A boy can hope for change.
As we learn from the magic 8-ball when asking questions that have answers that form across decades…
I’m only minimally informed about British parliamentary politics, but from this distance, I can’t believe that Parliament will ever vote to leave the EU. I hope I’m wrong about all this.
Too many members of Parliament benefit too much from Britain’s EU membership. They’ll probably keep calling for repeated referendums on an EU exit. Eventually, they’ll get the “no” vote that they want. This could go on for years.
As the years pass, more and more immigrants will acquire voting rights, and they’ll support Parliament’s desire to surrender sovereignty to the EU.
I think we’ll end up seeing the Brexit vote as the last gasp of the English, many of whom will end up migrating to Canada, Australia, or the United States. I don’t have the citation at hand, but I’ve read that this has already started.
This is a satirical Facebook post that Charles CW Cooke posted at National Review.
I thought it was pretty funny but only because I’ve seen so many posts like it in my timeline.
I concur with Parker’s pov.
Cornflour has the more pessimistic pov, but those can often be accurate as well.
Few have paid much attention to the outcome of a meeting of the six foreign ministers of the founding EU countries on June 25th.
Their communique, which may well be a recognition that the EU must change to survive, seems to recognize the failures of the EU and propose change. However, it could be a ploy to, if not woo the UK to reject the Brexit vote, to forestall other exit votes.
George Friedman at Sratfor thinks it is for real.
Here’s Friedman’s take:
“Today, foreign ministers from the European Union’s six founding member states issued an extraordinary statement, declaring that they will “recognize different levels of ambition amongst Member States when it comes to the project of European integration.” This was a landmark capitulation by the major European powers, accepting the idea that uniformity across the bloc is impossible and nations can choose the terms of membership.
The ministers — representing Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands — publicly recognized that there is discontent across the bloc. The statement said that they will “focus our common efforts on those challenges which can only be addressed by common European answers, while leaving other tasks to national or regional levels.”
This response to the decision of British voters to leave the bloc marks a profound change in the EU’s formal goals and could signal a transformation in the EU’s role. Until today, the EU – and many of its member states’ governments – were formally committed to boosting integration. From banking regulations to refugee policies to everyday matters like cellphone fees, Brussels was moving toward greater interconnectivity and uniformity across the Continent.
On paper, the EU has sought to limit states’ ability to bail out banks, cap fiscal deficits and set up a quota system for distributing newly arrived refugees, among other goals. And yet, the failure to respond effectively first to the financial crisis and then to the refugee crisis gave momentum to nationalist forces. The gap between the EU’s formal aims and the preferences of some national-level governments has been widening as a result.”
If this actually happens, the EU might well survive and possibly thrive. If it is just lip service intended to sweet talk other countries into staying, it’s bad news.
JJ,
IMO a union under a common currency that joins Germany with Greece (for example) can not prosper, nor in the long run survive.
It could go either way. I suspect the UK’s future rests upon whether other EU nation’s also secede.
Damian Thompson, who writes at The Spectator, tweeted this today: “If UK voters had known how desperate the Remain crowd were to overrule them, it wold have been 70-30 for Brexit.”
If that’s a good take on the situation, it’s hard to see how Parliament overturns the Leave vote, even in the long run.
In Europe, the Brexit is seen as a fact. Even if the referendum is only advisory.
If UK MPs don’t pull the trigger… no, there will be no crisis. Since they won’t say it clearly. It will be just delayed, and delayed… and delayed. Crisis need a trigger, something that happens in a specific moment.
However, sooner or later people will start to realize that Brexit won’t happen.
There will be no crisis, but there will be a deepest change. Many people are angry at the current political climate in Europe, but they still consider the system as a democracy and respect the rules of the game. But no Brexit, and someway the rules will be broken. And not only in UK. And the outcome of this is quite difficult to foresee.
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A few days ago I thought that the Government (either this one or another one to be installed post a snap election) would have to go along with the withdrawal and I still think that this is probably true but there is now a growing possibility that Parliament will not vote for withdrawal. The referendum was only advisory so if a party puts in their manifesto that they won’t withdraw (or that they’ll hold another vote) and then wins the election they will claim a mandate for remaining. Of course that will leave 17mm very angry voters and precipitate a different crisis. Interesting times.
After all his hub bub, UK will have to leave.
The smart thing is for the UK to be some kind of associate member status with the EU and little to no tariffs.
The people are finding out the conspiracy theorists idea of globalist elite dissolving borders and taking the world, has been their project behind their pretending to represent you
unless they twick em, they will leave
and most of the rest of the EU will dissolve
and the european soviet will be gone
and the american soviet will be in question
They even had articles saying american union this morning.
and there is some really odd other things, but there is no discussion here on them, so its a waste.. just pay attention to the distraction, ignore the other things…
The elite global financial overlords and the elite of the Labour party are going to attempt to reverse course. But as LT notes, attempts to back away from the brexit vote will have consequences. What may make reversal diffiicult is the brexit passed with the help of votes from the working class base of the Labour Party.
Nigel Farage at the EU ‘parliment’ today enjoyed reminding the bureaucrats that they have laughed at him for saying his goal was to sever the UK from the shackles of the EU but they were not laughing today. He and Cruz might one day be the 2nd coming of the Thatcher and Reagan alliance. A boy can hope for change.
As we learn from the magic 8-ball when asking questions that have answers that form across decades…
“Reply Hazy. Ask Again Later.”
http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/803157/24052245/1386865366493/magic8ball_ask_again_later.png?token=Sj%2Fa7us62vxFCw6fy3Uzj0kNIN4%3D
I’m only minimally informed about British parliamentary politics, but from this distance, I can’t believe that Parliament will ever vote to leave the EU. I hope I’m wrong about all this.
Too many members of Parliament benefit too much from Britain’s EU membership. They’ll probably keep calling for repeated referendums on an EU exit. Eventually, they’ll get the “no” vote that they want. This could go on for years.
As the years pass, more and more immigrants will acquire voting rights, and they’ll support Parliament’s desire to surrender sovereignty to the EU.
I think we’ll end up seeing the Brexit vote as the last gasp of the English, many of whom will end up migrating to Canada, Australia, or the United States. I don’t have the citation at hand, but I’ve read that this has already started.
This is a satirical Facebook post that Charles CW Cooke posted at National Review.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/437242/every-anti-brexit-facebook-post-britain
I thought it was pretty funny but only because I’ve seen so many posts like it in my timeline.
I concur with Parker’s pov.
Cornflour has the more pessimistic pov, but those can often be accurate as well.
Few have paid much attention to the outcome of a meeting of the six foreign ministers of the founding EU countries on June 25th.
Their communique, which may well be a recognition that the EU must change to survive, seems to recognize the failures of the EU and propose change. However, it could be a ploy to, if not woo the UK to reject the Brexit vote, to forestall other exit votes.
George Friedman at Sratfor thinks it is for real.
Here’s Friedman’s take:
“Today, foreign ministers from the European Union’s six founding member states issued an extraordinary statement, declaring that they will “recognize different levels of ambition amongst Member States when it comes to the project of European integration.” This was a landmark capitulation by the major European powers, accepting the idea that uniformity across the bloc is impossible and nations can choose the terms of membership.
The ministers — representing Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands — publicly recognized that there is discontent across the bloc. The statement said that they will “focus our common efforts on those challenges which can only be addressed by common European answers, while leaving other tasks to national or regional levels.”
This response to the decision of British voters to leave the bloc marks a profound change in the EU’s formal goals and could signal a transformation in the EU’s role. Until today, the EU – and many of its member states’ governments – were formally committed to boosting integration. From banking regulations to refugee policies to everyday matters like cellphone fees, Brussels was moving toward greater interconnectivity and uniformity across the Continent.
On paper, the EU has sought to limit states’ ability to bail out banks, cap fiscal deficits and set up a quota system for distributing newly arrived refugees, among other goals. And yet, the failure to respond effectively first to the financial crisis and then to the refugee crisis gave momentum to nationalist forces. The gap between the EU’s formal aims and the preferences of some national-level governments has been widening as a result.”
If this actually happens, the EU might well survive and possibly thrive. If it is just lip service intended to sweet talk other countries into staying, it’s bad news.
JJ,
IMO a union under a common currency that joins Germany with Greece (for example) can not prosper, nor in the long run survive.
It could go either way. I suspect the UK’s future rests upon whether other EU nation’s also secede.
Damian Thompson, who writes at The Spectator, tweeted this today: “If UK voters had known how desperate the Remain crowd were to overrule them, it wold have been 70-30 for Brexit.”
If that’s a good take on the situation, it’s hard to see how Parliament overturns the Leave vote, even in the long run.
In Europe, the Brexit is seen as a fact. Even if the referendum is only advisory.
If UK MPs don’t pull the trigger… no, there will be no crisis. Since they won’t say it clearly. It will be just delayed, and delayed… and delayed. Crisis need a trigger, something that happens in a specific moment.
However, sooner or later people will start to realize that Brexit won’t happen.
There will be no crisis, but there will be a deepest change. Many people are angry at the current political climate in Europe, but they still consider the system as a democracy and respect the rules of the game. But no Brexit, and someway the rules will be broken. And not only in UK. And the outcome of this is quite difficult to foresee.