Carly VP announcement? [UPDATE]
UPDATE 6:20:
It’s official:
Here’s the earlier post:
All signs indicate that the upcoming announcement from Ted Cruz will be that he’s chosen Carly Fiorina as his running mate.
Perhaps it will help him. Perhaps not.
I’ve always liked Fiorina. But she only got a little traction back when there were 200 candidates (or however many started out), and she faded. She’s from California, and although she used to be popular with the Republicans in that state, I don’t know whether that popularity will hold or will matter.
Note I’m not making predictions here—except for the “Carly as Cruz’s running mate” one. And that’s not my prediction; it’s just about everybody’s prediction who is supposedly in the know.
Does anyone else have a strong feeling of surrealism today? I’ve known for a long time—months—that Trump is the likeliest GOP nominee. I’ve known for a long time—and still know—that his nomination is not a foregone conclusion, so I’m not giving up on other possibilities. I’ve also known—-probably ever since the fall—that the likelihood is that the Trump candidacy may have dealt a mortal blow to the GOP’s chances this year whoever is their nominee, because the rift that already existed in the party has widened and deepened. There are an enormous number of people on both sides, Cruz and Trump, who will not vote for the other one if the other one happens to end up the nominee. And although there are rifts among the Democrats too, I just don’t see those rifts as having quite the same effect in terms of damaging numbers.
So I’m not sure why today feels so surreal. Maybe it’s how the entire MSM is treating Trump as the “presumptive” (his word) nominee, and seems quite happy about it for their own reasons (ratings, a probable Hillary victory in November, and sticking it to the hated Ted). That’s not really new, though. Nor am I watching TV, but I read about it. Maybe it’s just the magnitude of the numbers in last night’s primary that are so sobering—what it says about America, and about so many GOP voters.
But the surrealistic feeling is probably just cumulative, as the chances for anything other than Trump have slowly, slowly dimmed over time, although they’re not extinguished. What’s even more galling is that the chances of Hillary Clinton’s not being elected president seem ever more distant to me, too. This was a race the GOP was positioned to win. I don’t see much, if any, chance of that now.
Trump fans do. They think their guy will trounce her, and that’s a significant part of the reason many of them have been voting for him. I see that as a delusion unsupported by any evidence whatsoever ((see this and this, as well as the NOTE* below). . I would never say it’s impossible, but I see it as highly highly unlikely. And now that that GOP civil war has gotten so heated, I think Cruz’s chances of beating her if he’s the nominee are not too much better. I think Rubio could have done it easily, but that ship sailed quite some time ago.
Oops! I guess I made some predictions there, after all.
[NOTE * In addition from the evidence of those polls from a few months ago, I’m unaware of any newer information on the subject that changes a thing. I looked at a couple of recent polls, and virtually all of them show Trump losing to Hillary, sometimes by huge margins. When I looked at the details within those polls, I couldn’t find any information about how Trump does with Democrats (or how Cruz does with Democrats, for that matter). The only relevant information was in one recent poll which compared Hillary’s ratings on a number of issues with Trump’s ratings on those same issues, in the populace as a whole (Democrats and Republicans together), and she did much better than Trump on every single measure—sometimes much much better, and that includes honesty.
Yes, yes, that could change in Trump’s favor. But in about ten months of Trump’s campaigning and building his support among GOP primary voters (a different kettle of fish than voters in the general, and his support even among GOP primary voters isn’t very high compared to most primary frontrunners at this point in a campaign), it hasn’t done so, and I don’t see it happening. Most people are very very familiar with both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and I don’t see much wiggle room there.]
If djt and hrc are the nominees there is a possi
opps… possibility one will have to testify in a fraud case and the other will see the fbi recommending an indictment to the doj. Strange season.
Indiana and LaLa land are the final battle fields. Be patient everyone. If djt arrives with fewer delegates below 1237 than Kasich holds the 3rd or 4th ballot will not give the nomination to the donald. However, that will not necessatily mean Cruz will win the ring. There will be rage, screams, profanities, and the msm will salivate; but it will be amusing to see the trumpians pop thousands of aneurysms.
Excellent speech by Carly. As usual.
Carly will go after Trump very hard. Watch her.
Ted’s campaign guy told me on Monday that both Ted and Carly will come to NE. I will be there!
Very clever how both Ted and Carly tied Trump to Hillary.
Fiorina is an excellent choice and if the team gains the nomination they will be formidable pair on the campaign trail. A Cruz/Fiorina versus Clinton/Warren would be fantastic.
I think Fiorina would kick Hillary’s (rather large) butt if she became the nominee. I hope we get to see that.
In my opinion, Carly’s prepared speeches have been good to excellent, with today’s speech being excellent. Her interview appearances have been lackluster, and too loaded with repetitions of portions of her stump speeches. Hey, did any of you know that Carly had been a secretary?
In any event, Carly had been my favorite, and I both contributed to her campaign and bought some Carly for America mugs and a t-shirt.
CRUZ HAS GOT TO LEARN TO CUT HIS SPEECHES DOWN BY AT LEAST 50%.
What’s with the singing to Ted’s little girls? I fear that’s going to be the day’s soundbite. Social media will love it. And not in a good way.
i love listening to her and she’ll gain some media time & additional recognition out of this (though maybe not knowing how a lot of the population doesn’t pay attention and can’t name vp’s).
other than some recognition, i don’t see what she gains here. cruz is a loser and the only way he gets the nomination is if it’s stolen from trump.
the media is treating him as the presumptive nominee because he is the presumptive nominee. anyone looking at the math, polls, results, etc can see it; anyone who sees otherwise is dreaming
convention of states — look it up
I liked both the Cruz and Fiorino speeches. In contrast, what I heard from Donald’s foreign policy speech was mishmash from someone who hasn’t done any homework. Andy McCarthy over at NRO absolutely trashes Trump on his ignorance and inconsistency.
I expect Cruz and Carly to take him on on this later on the campaign trail. I just wonder whether the MSM will give them any coverage.
C says:
I dream of a strong man to protect me and mine…. You others are delusional….
I agree with everything you said, neo. Great minds and all that. 🙂
Carly’s speech was wonderful. Found myself clapping and whooping on many of her points. Reminded me of why I liked her during the debates.
Speaking of a strange nominating campaign, Washington State has really changed things up this year. The last few years we have had an open primary where the ballots were sent out and you could vote for either party’s candidates.
This year the Dems caucused in March and went for Bernie. (But of course. It’s not called the Soviet Republic of Puget Sound for nothing.) The GOP has stayed with a primary vote, which will take place on May 24th. I’m glad to see that. I think the Dems all voted in their caucuses and can’t crossover to select a GOP candidate of their liking. At last my primary vote may count in the nomination process. I’m voting Cruz and I think he has a good chance of getting at least half the 44 delegates. Not many, but every delegate counts now.
Which of Trump or Cruz has been winning in the states that have some reasonable likeliness of voting Republican in the general election?
In this regard, I say, “So what?” about Trump’s strong showing in the NY primary, and would feel similarly about a Cruz victory in the California primary.
Ira:
The “so what?” has to do with the GOP nomination and getting the requisite number of delegates. Each delegate from those states counts just the same as from other states.
In the general, I very much doubt either GOP possible nominee will carry any of them, but that’s not what this is about right now.
Too late.
>>This was a race the GOP was positioned to win. I don’t see much, if any, chance of that now.
As I slowly realized it was in the GOP’s hands – they had their candidates, though flawed, were better candidates for the most powerful job in the world even with Clinton and Sanders combined, but the American GOP voters have spoken as well. They like Trump. They like that he’s not part of the establishment, so I can’t blame it solely on the leaders of the GOP; the voters have gone the stupid route.
Clinton will most likely win in November. And The Donald will lose.
Some pundits will say that Clinton’s win is the best scenario with the cards conservatives have been dealt with; that a Trump presidency would be the end of the conservative movement and that a Clinton presidency would at least fuel said movement for a 2020 presidential run. Well, wtf (exchange my language) was Obama then? If Obama doesn’t get the GOP voters and independents to vote for a Cruz or a Walker, why would Clinton?
It’s up to the GOP voters and the independents, but it seems they have failed the country with the power of the vote. The failed twice when they helped elect Obama in 2012. They’re going to failed again by voting for Trump. La parte estĂ©Âşpida.
I don’t get the CW about how Rubio would have been able to win. His own party and own state rejected him.
“When other nations were afraid of ideas, this civilization (Islam) thrived on them.” Something is wrong with this woman’s intellectual/emotional development. Perhaps she can explain why this civilization destroys other cultures and burns down libraries.
mchenrybob:
Ah yes, right on cue, that old song. I expect nothing less.
See a lengthy discussion of that issue here as well as here. There’s a lot of back-and-forth on it in both threads.
KLSmith:
It’s based on polls for the general, which showed him consistently doing very well against Hillary Clinton.
For me, it’s also based (although less so) on personal anecdotal evidence. All of my liberal friends who don’t like Hillary (and there are quite a few of them) were very interested in Rubio, and expressed that interest and liking.
Of course, there’s no way to tell for sure what would have happened, but that’s what my statement was based on.
I don’t know why, but Carly has never appealed to me. Part of it is that I want candidates to have governmental experience, but it goes deeper than that.
This was Cruz’s last card to play. I like that he’s playing all of them. I guess he figures that one more voice on the stump will help him in California – although I’m not sure how much weight she really carries there.
But this was Cruz’s last card. If he could have saved trading the VP slot at the convention, he should have, but he’s got to stop Trump from winning that first ballot, and a good part of that is a persuasive win in California. Definitely he had to get back some momentum after yesterday’s losses, and this announcement will have him leading the headlines for a while.
I bet that Cruz was also sending a two-word message to Kasich, who just proved himself to be a worthless or even a treacherous ally.
Yes, that’s it. It’s as if you think people could not possibly be so f’ing stupid and emotion driven, and then they prove they are.
It’s got to be surreal. This is like a Twilight Zone episode. Neo finds out that her side of the aisle is horribly wrong, then struggles to cross over, and the twist ending is finding the Republican Party falling into the same selfish identity politics.
Nick:
I always retained a healthy skepticism about the GOP as an institution and see most human beings as vulnerable to demagoguery and distortions, as well as appeals to emotion. But even though I didn’t think I was naive about the right, I think I was somewhat underestimating the extent of the right’s vulnerability.
I have to chuckle, as I do believe I paired these two as a dream ticket many months ago.
parker: OK parker, but what if Trump wins Iowa by one vote?
Ok KLS,
What if we get a ‘progressive’ hrc versus ‘progressive’ djt contest, djt will not lose Iowa by one vote. He might win AL, MS, and perhaps ND, TX, or WY; but what else does he win, Alaska or Idaho? Allow me to spell it out: landslide.
parker: “by one vote”. that’s how you were supposed to know I was kidding you. everybody will vote for who they want, or not vote, regardless of my opinion. I actually don’t give a damn anymore; I just grieve for my country.
KLS,
Its late and your comment flew over my sleepy head.
parker: no problem. You have my respect and gratitude for the primary work you did for Cruz.
Neo:
“I don’t see much wiggle room there.”
Activists create wiggle room, but like the rest of the game, that’s a competitive enterprise.
Trump fans do. They think their guy will trounce her, and that’s a significant part of the reason many of them have been voting for him. I see that as a delusion unsupported by any evidence whatsoever
Some of them are Democrats and voted for Hussein. To assume that they have the capability for reason is… too optimistic.