It’s another big primary day
[UPDATE below.]
I have my usual feeling of dread about it.
This will almost certainly be a very big day for Trump because of the states involved: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island—that is, Southern New England and some mid-Atlantic states (see, I remember my grade-school geography). Trump is very popular among the Republicans in these states, which have been reliably blue in presidential elections for many cycles.
I realize that decisive Trump victories today are unlikely to change the projection regarding the delegate total at the convention, because decisive Trump victories are expected and have been factored in already. Trump has a good chance of getting to the magic number on the first ballot, but also a pretty good chance of missing it. I refuse to make predictions; I just don’t know.
Here’s a thread to discuss the primaries, or really anything else you’d like.
UPDATE 11:50 PM
Trump’s victory was huge. He may lose a few delegates, but just a few. It’s demoralizing for all Cruz supporters (at this point, that includes me), and I believe for anyone who wants Hillary Clinton to lose the election.
For me, if the GOP nominee is Trump, I’m reduced to the following hope: that if he wins the general election he shows the type of character, judgment, principles, and respect for the Constitution that he has never, never ever, even come close to displaying in his entire life.
I’ve always respected our primary system and the Electoral College for both minimizing the impact that Maryland voters can have on the country. But I really don’t see the same dynamic among MD Republicans that I have in states like Pennsylvania and New York. The parts of the state that are overrun with illegal immigration aren’t the parts that vote R. There isn’t really a Rust Belt anti-trade dynamic either.
Oh, well. I’ve cast my vote. Whatever happens isn’t my fault. I’ll be able to look my grand-kids in the eye – ok, more realistically, I’ll be able to look my cellmate in the ape cages in the eye and tell him it’s not my fault.
Yup. It is still up for grabs with a better than even chance that Mr. Trump becomes the nominee in Cleveland.
The conventional wisdom NOW is that Mr. Trump has a slight chance of pulling off a victory in November.
Of course most of that ‘wisdom’ comes from those who were sure Mr. Trump had zero chance of becoming the nominee.
Media declaring Trump the presumptive nominee.
voted at my primary spot today in CT just before 6, the number of voters were lower figures than the last primary.
Cornhead:
Media’s been doing that for a long, long time.
It’s what they want, too.
I would say, however, he probably will be the nominee. But not because of anything new that was shown this evening.
I’m still curious what the actual delegate breakdown from tonight will be, as opposed to what was predicted. Haven’t seen much about that, although the 538 blog seems to think Trump got almost everything (nothing much about PA, though).
A very depressing night, as expected, but maybe even a bit more depressing than expected.
“The conventional wisdom” of candidate the donald with a slight chance of winning in November is a silly fairy tale. Of course the prophets of conventional wisdom are the msm, the airforce of the dnc. But thanks for making me laugh.
As a former Rubio supporter, I must confess that Trump displayed a more serious and professional demeanor than I thought possible. He was polite, controlled and Presidential in an alpha male way. He is in it to win and I would not bet against him if he continues to act in this fashion.
“Trump is very popular among the Republicans in these states, which have been reliably blue in presidential elections for many cycles.”
Blue states with frustrated alienated working class voters driven to madness and casting desperation ballots for their crude cheetos dust messiah.
In other wacky news: http://www.vocativ.com/312479/kkk-endorses-hillary-clinton-for-president/ KKK Endorses Hillary
Trump is a Democrat in the same mold as Bloomberg. You can expect the same attitudes and policies out of him. In fact, he’s already begun to shift his positions.
Richard:
Oh, I’m not betting against Trump. He certainly has been able to fool some of the people some of the time (or maybe some of the people all of the time). They say no one ever went broke underestimating the American public, so I have no plans to go broke doing that, either.
Of course Trump is capable of many ways of presenting himself. He is an untrustworthy chameleon, among other things, but his supporters seem to think they know his true self and his true intentions.
Matt_SE
Exactly, except the donald is not running to be mayor of NYC.
With an America that thanks to Obama is now seen as untrustworthy throughout the world, why do voters want to be represented by a man who doesn’t have a trustworthy bone in his body?
expat:
I think many Trump voters want revenge for Obama, if that makes any sense.
But I don’t think the majority of Americans—or even the majority of GOP voters—want Trump.
“Make no mistake. It’s not revenge they’re after. It’s a reckoning.”
From
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jInmg8iTKWs
neo,
You are probably right. Since Republican votes don’t count in the general in blue states, this is probably the only chance voters see to sound off.
I’m so discouraged now with either Clinton or Trump, that I’ve now moved into ostrich mode. I have to insulate myself somewhat from the continuing barrage of what I consider bad news just to keep my mental state somewhat stable. I still read online news/opinion in the morning, but my evenings are now filled with netflix streaming of the most escapist old series I can find. No more CNN, Fox, O’Reilly, or Megyn for me.
I know it’s probably not real healthy to ignore the fire moving towards us in the distance, but I’m trying to grab the good parts and enjoy them before the, what I consider, inevitable end that’s coming.
physicsguy:
I see it as healthy. Why torment yourself? I never did watch a whole lot of TV news, but I’ve completely stopped, for many months now. It’s a waste of time and energy, as well as emotion.
I still do read the news, though, of course. If I went into full ostrich mode (which I don’t plan to do) I’d have to change the blog into a ballet/arts/history/science/fashion/personal-essay zone.
that if he wins the general election he shows the type of character, judgment, principles, and respect for the Constitution that he has never, never ever, even come close to displaying in his entire life.
not true, but hey! perception is everything and left liberal press of the past 40 years is the most truthful, honest, selfless, fair reporting there is in a progressive country.
You know what they tell you, period…
unless you know him personally…
I was part of that freaking machine and he has NEVER gotten good press and fair press or anykind, which is why nothing negative worked on him.
the horror if he turns out to be good..
then your world is all shaken up and your judgments would be in a huge disaray as to what you thought and what happened.
about the only way for you to get out of the dirt emotionally is to have him be bad, otherwise what does that mean for all your other judgments you were just as comfortable with?
Ego, what a bitch…
Just look what they did to your Id…
You need a bit of – shock treatment
But if you open your heart to a smooth operator
He’ll take you for all that you’ve got
He’ll hand you a curse that’ll be with you later
It’ll shake ya the way he takes off like a shot
You’re blinded by romance, you’re blinded by science
You’re condition is critically grave
But don’t expect mercy from such an alliance
Suspicion of tradition’s so new wave
🙂
Artfldgr:
As I’ve made clear before, I am not basing my assessment of Donald Trump on a few articles in the MSM. I am basing it on my close observation of his behavior—his own words and deeds—over his entire adult life, including this campaign season. I have read many lengthy interviews in his own words, many lengthy articles that are not by just the MSM, and a biography. These are my own conclusions, and it wouldn’t matter if I met him a couple of times and he acted nicer or spoke in more dulcet and dignified tones.
I had someone call from Trump’s campaign yesterday. It wasn’t a fundraiser, I guess, although we never got to the reason for his call.
He told me The Donald wanted to make sure I heard a message from him, would I hang on? I said yes and listened to about 2 minutes of the same old bombast we have come to expect — can you imagine him having the bully pulpit for 4 years?
When the caller came back on the line I said “I am pleased he identifies as a Republican, as I want to put Republicans in office to stop our slide to Socialism. But he doesn’t sound very intelligent, does he? That sounded like a clown talking!”
He said “thank you for your opinion” and hung up. I never did find out what he was calling for.
I have met both bloomberg and Trump, the clinton family, the hiltons, the hearsts, are all people who at one time were part of the sphere i moved in doing photo journalism… nikki used to give me birthday kiss on the cheek each year.
Trump and Bloomberg are NOTHING like each other
Trump in person is quite impressive and personable, and he can remember your name and talks to anyone in his sphere… bloomberg is very cold, hates little people, does not like having to deal with them at events, wont smile at you no matter how many times you meet him, and other stuff.
[funny, the only person i met with a worse personality and worth half a billion was David Copperfield… horrid personality towards the common people]
The media does not portray people who are wealthy in any real way… EVER… in fact its so left that you cant get to see any of them the way they are, and its intereeting to meet them and then see how that same moment is recorded in the press.
heidi klume was always a darling to me, and when her dad caught me one day and ripped me a new one as the representative of american journalism, i let him, and didnt fight back, and it was in all the news in germany. he is a good guy too, and so is his wife. (when she had the baby with seal it was fun, as lenny kravitz lives on the other side of the block and i got to speak with him again – we were born the same year)
i noticed that people who are professional really look down on people who are not professional, even when they think they dont. they want certain behaviors and attitudes and fakeness that is common in their sphere, but isnt common among the middle in which thye let everythig hang out.
trump is from the middle and acts “real”
that is what people are gravitating towards
professionals act in ways that hide who they are.
from their clothes to their opinions, you dont know what they really stand for as they are to be blank slates for business.
if you always wear suits, say the right things, express no opinions, and so on, thats professional, a blank in which people project their selves onto that makes bsiness easier.
when someone says something negative, you know that they are being honest in some way, when someone says whats expected, you have no idea what they believe, thye may believe what they said, they may just be saying it cause its what your supposed to say.
the upper crust hates trump because he lets you know who he is warts and all and acts like the big mouth blue collar new money person who has not learned which fork to hold, where to stand, how to bow, what is the right way to shake hands, etc..
[edited for length by n-n]
@Richard – Trump has shown so many behaviors, it will take waaaaay more than a few speeches to be convincing that he is “presidential”.
@parker – we all have to keep in mind that the media has a bias which filters through to the narrative they present.
It is an extremely close race and there are too many unknowns for anyone to really predict.
This assessment might be more in line with reality…
“The GOP nomination fight is going down to the wire, and Indiana is (crucial) … (Cruz) doesn’t need a 13-point blowout to stop Trump. The alliance that the Cruz and Kasich campaigns brokered … could be the tactical decision that blocks Trump from the GOP nomination”
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/623100?unlock=L9L8HNG2AL28TIKG
Is it reasonable to have anxiety? Yes, given the level of uncertainty.
Should we believe the narrative that Trump has “momentum”? No, but to the extent that we not-Trump folks do, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
@not so artful dodger – “trump is from the middle and acts “real” … that is what people are gravitating towards … professionals act in ways that hide who they are.”
Oh come on!
Who is the “real” Trump?
We’ve many, many unfiltered quotes from Trump. It is not just an MSM narrative of him. And that is precisely the problem, as Trump gets plenty of free time on air and headlines because of his statements/tweets/etc. The more outrageous the better.
Frankly, if a neighbor talked like Trump does about other people, bragging about what he has, etc., there’d be only one conclusion … a..hole!
His public persona is just as “real” as his private one.
If his public persona is not what his “real self” is like, then what does that portend for the WH, should he get there?
Frankly, many of the worst leaders in history were probably “nice guys” when one on one – especially in social settings where there was no disagreement to work through.
Anyway, it is not so much his likeability that is at issue. It is his temperament, policy stands (or lack thereof), electability, etc. He can be as two faced as he wants to be, becoming “presidential” when he sees fit. That doesn’t fix the rest.
I’m not a fan of trump but sure am glad he kicked everyone’s @$$ last night. cruz and kasich were acting like spoiled little brats and i think all the voters saw through their silly little act. now if they’d just quit as neither can legitimately win via the math.
cruz was and is a liar (see how he treated carson). the evangelicals (i’m one) obviously aren’t paying attention and just voting for him because he’s southern baptist now. i won’t and wouldn’t vote for him and gladly he’s now out of the race (unless the gop steal it from trump which will blow the party up)
the people obv want trump. let them have him
trump v the criminal now for president
It doesn’t matter what kind of man Trump is “secretly” underneath all those layers of egotistical, plumb ignorant, vainglorious blowhardism.
It won’t matter because this public clown Trump has left a video trail of vulgar shit a mile wide and years long behind him. And it will be scooped up and thrown in his, and his venom junkie supporters’ faces, by the Democrat Party and a gleeful news media, from convention day until the She-devil Herself ascends to the throne, and her legions of tattooed and pierced entitlement junkies dance orgiastic-ally around her in celebration.
If Trump’s petulant usually-don’t-vote supporters don’t evaporate like dew in the midday sun before the real election, and he doesn’t lose worse than Goldwater did as a result of the same kind of media framing; then, this will be proven to have somehow become, overnight, a very different country, and Trump’s supporters a more determined and reliable people, than it or they, have been for the last 30 years or more.
Here in CT we have an interesting microstate version of the national problem. We have a one party government that has driven the state bankrupt. I mean truly bankrupt with huge pension debt and businesses fleeing. The democrat governor is now desperately trying to fix this but has to fight his own progressive party. Our voters rejected a competent, Romney like guy last election to keep the tax hiking democrat. They did so largely because he was tagged as rich. But now the GOP votes for a rich guy who claims to be richer than he is with a mixed business management record. This must be because they are mad at someone. However when given the chance to start fixing it they ran away last time. Trump promises something for nothing just like the democrats and less than nothing for social issues. This is not the establishment making things bad it is truly the voters. See Fortune Magazine’s May issue for a good peek at how Trump would run the white house and how much money he really has (he could have put his inheritance in the market and made more than he is worth today!)
“Trump did not perform especially well among late-deciding voters … But recent turnout has been low as compared with earlier states…. So it may not be that undecided voters are gravitating to Trump so much as anti-Trump Republicans are discouraged”
Discouraged Anti-Trump GOP Stayed Home in NY and NE
As mentioned, the media narrative and the resulting anxiety of those against Trump has become a Self-fulfilling Prophecy.
c:
Oh, of course you’re not a Trump fan.
You just play one on TV.
DNW:
“then, this will be proven to have somehow become, overnight, a very different country”
somehow = activism.
Activism works for anyone for any cause. Its purpose and design is engineering social paradigm shift.
Of course, applying the effective method does not by itself guarantee the reification of one’s preferred social condition – success is a matter of construction and competition.
The Left’s Gramscian march was boosted by conservatives’ aversion to activism which cleared the playing field of competition, so that the Left could concentrate on construction.
In contrast, it appears that Trump-front alt-Right activists will face stiffer competition in the general election … although, due to their compatible positions, I wonder how much of the Left and alt-Right social activist movements are sourced from the same (foreign) purpose to break America in the global competition. And how that might affect their candidate alignments for the general election.
In other words, it’s possible that Left activists line up with Trump if Trump better reduces America as a global competitor.
DNW:
“… and Trump’s supporters a more determined and reliable people, than it or they, have been for the last 30 years or more.”
Were they activist “for the last 30 years or more”? Social change, fast (1-2 generations), radical, even revolutionary – paradigm shift – is the purpose and design of activism.
If they’re genuine activists, which they appear to be so far, then determination and zealousness, let alone reliability, are part of the job description.
That being said, to your point, the “jayvee” Trump-front alt-Right activists have yet to be challenged by real competition to test their determination and reliability. It remains to be seen how they’ll react to setbacks against real competition from varsity Democrat-front Left activists.
Though again, I wonder how much the alt-Right and Left social activist movements flow from the same anti-American source.
Also, I wonder about the degree to which the Trump-front alt-Right is committed to Trump winning the presidency and thus their willingness to invest in competing head on against the Democrat-front Left (assuming they’re adversaries).
Their main goal is establishing their Gramscian march and their proximate goal is displacing conservatives and taking over their space in the American political landscape, which is being accomplished within the GOP nomination race. How far they’ll push their strategic alliance with Trump beyond the GOP nomination remains to be seen, though as long as the benefit outweighs the cost for their Gramscian march, I don’t see why they would stop.
Add:
DNW:
“a very different country”
The American nation has always been a construct. A construct can be (and has been) deconstructed and reconstructed. The method for social creative destruction and construction is activism. By the same token, activism is also the method to “keep it”.
lmao…neo, honestly, i’m not a trump fan but i abhor cruz. i’m a southern baptist and in a southern state. i think cruz is as big a fraud as lots think trump is. i didn’t vote for anyone in my southern state primary.
i just wish it’d be over already and i hate the way they’re acting. cruz and kasich have no shot and it’s over mathematically. they need to move on
c:
There’s plenty of evidence that Trump is a fraud, at least in terms of some of his business dealings and in terms of his political presentation as a non-liberal and non-crony-capitalist.
There is little to no evidence of what you charge Cruz with. It’s something Trump has continually alleged about Cruz, however, and the Trump supporters have picked it up and run with it.
So although I take your word for it that you’re not a Trump supporter and are instead a Cruz abhorrer, that “fraud” charge re Cruz is a leaf right out of the Trump campaign book. Perhaps you are very susceptible to propaganda. Perhaps you don’t like Cruz’s face or his voice or his manner. Or perhaps you have some very reliable inside info, although if you do you certainly haven’t revealed it.
And I have no idea why you are so angry at Cruz for acting the way he does, not conceding to a man he (and many of us) think is reprehensible. This “mathematically eliminated” stuff is more Trump propaganda. It is a term common in baseball and other sports; playoffs, and it has an actual meaning, and in this case it would not occur until Trump gets 1237 delegates in the first ballot. Till then, although the other candidates can’t get that figure on the first ballot, they can certainly get it on subsequent ballots, and that means they are only “mathematically eliminated” to win on the first ballot. But that’s not the only way to win.
Surely you’re aware of that.
c:
Just now on the Carly thread I noticed that you wrote the following:
“Cruz is a loser and the only way he gets the nomination is if it’s stolen from trump.”
That meme is more Trump propaganda, as even Rush Limbaugh has conceded. So either you’re an actual Trump supporter or you’re very very susceptible to Trump’s propaganda.
There are Trump supporters who comment on this blog, by the way. It’s not verboten.