On Kasich: a lot of people have been asking…
…why is Kasich still running?
The question isn’t all that interesting or mysterious to me, because I figure it’s ego, and/or he aims to help or hurt Trump or Cruz (take your pick), and/or he somehow sees this as leading to a vice-presidency for himself.
The question that interests me more is: why are so many people still voting for Kasich in the primaries? Do they like him so very very much (that’s hard for me to believe)? Do they merely see him as the only moderate left standing (that makes more sense to me)? Do they think he really has a chance of winning (highly unlikely)? Are they just not paying attention to the dynamics of the race at this point?
Are they personality cultists.?
Protest voters who write in his name in the general?
Do they have the inability to admit they were wrong, he’s not the one?
Neo, good questions, and largely unanswerable.
Ed, I think your first question applies more appropriately to Trump voters; and to some extent the other two as well;e.g. protest voters, and those who cannot admit they were wrong about the man.
The case for Kasich is simple.
Some people really hate Trump, and haven’t forgiven Cruz for cozying up to him early in the race. They want a candidate who has executive experience and knows Washington. Trump and Cruz are both reckless. Kasich has actual accomplishments in government; he’s reached across the aisle and is able to compromise. He’s also accomplished more for the conservative movement in Congress than Cruz has. He’s taken the high road during the campaign. Cruz is a snotty 15-year-old, and Trump is a spoiled 5-year-old. Kasich is an adult.
I don’t buy the argument, but that’s it.
Nick:
Oh, I understand the argument.
That would have been someone’s reason for voting Kasich early on in the primaries. But now it makes no sense, because Kasich is going nowhere. I suppose it makes sense if someone thinks Kasich could win if it goes to a contested convention, but even that doesn’t make sense because it would require both the Cruz AND the Trump delegates to move to Kasich, and also suspending the rule that says the nominee must have won in 8 states.
“Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States Shall demonstrate the support of the majority of the delegates from each of (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of the candidate for nomination.”
If eight states submit Kasich’s name for nomination on the second ballot, would it be accepted?
Nick; I agree with Neo. I thought at one time, after a couple of my favorites dropped out, that Kasich would be a good choice. That ship has sailed and hit an iceberg–so to speak. Now, his persistence is baffling. I don’t think he is completely delusional, so there must be an explanation. Wonder if we will ever know.
I think a certain number ofvoters are just sick of the whole campaign (on both sides) and want someone less combative. I don’t see how Reps can forgive him for the statement that Reps should take up some Dem ideas.
Kasich – by himself -.has completely screwed up the primaries.
The eight state rule means that only Cruz or Trump can get the nomination. But if the nomination is contested, and neither Cruz or Trump can convince enough delegates to come to their side (or both convince too many of each others’ delegates to switch), then it’s possible that the rules might be changed as a way to break the deadlock and allow more candidates to be considered.
I think Kasich is hoping for something like this, and sees it as his path to the nomination.
junior:
But that’s why I pointed out that Kasich would have to get the support of a great many Trump delegates AND Cruz delegates to get enough votes (or to get enough votes to change the rules). Highly highly unlikely.
Why are people still voting for Kasich? Protest votes. At least, some of them. For most of the country, we’ve never cast anything but protest votes in the presidential primaries.
Why is Kasich still running? Well, if Trump gets the nomination and loses, Kasich is very well positioned for 2020. This could have been Cruz’s best chance. Rubio is going to have to find something to do for the next few years, and if it even looks like he’s seeking the limelight for another presidential run, it’s going to look bad for him. The Republican team had depth going into the nomination process, but we may have put too many eggs into this one basket. And if we lose the Senate and the White House this year, there won’t be a lot of star-making roles before early 2019.
I think that the answer that Nick is expecting to his question is yes. Suppose in The second or third or subsequent round of voting the majority of delegates from a different states have come around to Kasich, then his name can be put up for nomination. The same would be true for any other person, currently running or not. Of course, all the foregoing assumes for the sake of argument that words and sentences in rule 40 have their plain meeting.
The people voting for Kasich are the GOP members who don’t like either Trump or Cruz. He might not have a chance at the nomination but they want to vote for someone they agree with. I have watched many townhalls on C-SPAN. Kasich is very effective in a townhall setting. He is the moderate (Rockefeller Republican) that suits people in the GOP who swing that way. In order for a Republican to win the general he/she has to get both the conservative and the moderate Repubs plus a majority of the independents. None of the remaining candidates can do that. Barring some catastrophe for the Dems – Hillary getting indicted, a major attack on the country, a major diplomatic setback, or ? – the election is almost a sure thing for the Democrats.
How did this happen? Too many good candidates who cannibalised one another’s support while Trump was getting about 35% of the votes in most primaries, the other 16 were splitting the other 65%. Add in the states where only a plurality is required to take all the delegates and you have a situation where Trump leads but is not the favorite of the majority of Republicans.
This spells disaster with a capital D.
Personal moral hygiene.
Dig it:
*IF* I can’t stomach Trump (and that’s over half of of the Republican electorate, except in Noo Yawk), . . .
*AND* if I’m not a strict Constitutional conservative like Cruz who’ll shut down the whole *gummint* just ’cause he doesn’t like the way things are going — and that’s how many non-political types (such as my own dear daughter, f’rexample) perceived it, . . .
*AND* if I’m among those who think it’s good, yea virtuous, to reach across the aisle and meet the other guys half way (never mind that they’ll be back for the other half next year), . . .
*THEN* John Kasich is my man.
Q.E.D. [Quite Easily Done!]
The question’s answers have bounced between why are people voting for Kasich (I did that) and why is Kasich still running?
I’d like another stab at it.
Kasich is a decent man, or was. I heard his conversion testimony a few years ago.
I highly doubt he’s taking Soros money to throw a wrench in the process.
By continuing, does he becomes a kingmaker on the second vote, maybe? Saving the party from itself?
“Are they just not paying attention to the dynamics of the race at this point?”
I might put this another way. A majority of people really don’t have a good solid sense of strategy.
That is probably because they don’t have a good sense of how politics works.
“Politics” is really about getting people to agree, using persuasion and the process within the rules we all (mostly) agree to. It exists in everything we do that reaches beyond just one other person.
These folks just don’t have the life experience to help them understand. Some examples:
– Leading a large group of people, trying to get them to move in one direction, both in belief (voluntarily) and in organization (structure and authority in the right hands).
– Negotiating large complex deals across multiple parties (each with their own set of interests to satisfy).
– Responding to a competitive and dynamic environment where choices are not always clear cut, and the customer/client has multiple and sometimes illogical motivations, or lack of understanding/knowledge about what they must choose.
Few folks, especially lower down the economic rung, have ever faced making decisions that affect a large number of people on a regular basis, and the trade-offs and difficulties that come with that.
They may be paying attention, and they may be unhappy with what they see, but many don’t have the background to employ any intuitive “game theory” to help themselves understand a viable path forward.
Seen too many commenters on conservative media advocate a frontal assault to conquer the next hill, for the sake of merely taking that hill (of course thinking they are making headway), only to end up declaring victory and retreating again.
Kasich voters may think the other two choices are either “too conservative” (Cruz) or “too authoritarian/unhinged/etc” (Trump), but miss the big picture that a “moderate” can no longer make it past the nomination.
They seem to be more wishfully thinking that keeping the door open for Kasich or some other “white knight” will be available that will magically “unite” all GOP support.
That boat has sailed. There are no other choices that would have any “legitimacy” in many eyes.
Maybe there is such a person, but if they have not come forth now, nor have they gained any momentum of support. Kasich isn’t doing it.
Heck, we know that many of Trump’s supporters might not see any legitimacy for anyone else getting the nomination.
It may already be too late, but if anyone wants a chance to keep the GOP together, win the House and the Senate, Cruz will have to be their guy.
Aside from “electability”, we know Trump doesn’t represent the principles, even in a moderate sense, of what the GOP stand for, and virtually promises an Authoritarian approach, hardly moderate at all.
“Gaming” it out, the only viable alternative to Trump, and for retaining a political party, that has influence in DC for the next 4 to 8 years, is Cruz. Period.
At the debate prior to the Iowa vote there was a moment after Kasich had said something about reviving manufacturing when Trump turned and looked directly at him and agreed with him. I got the feeling at the time that he was sizing him up for an appointment or the VP slot. Since Trump has said he intends to work with congress, Kasich would seem a logical pick. Also, he’s the popular governor of Ohio.
My theory is that Kasich allows them to avoid the hard choice between Cruz and Trump.
Matt…
I’d say you’re spot on.
As for small k…
Being Democrat-lite = automatic defeat at the polls.
Is he even in the right party ?
I had an opportunity to read Friday’s Washington Post, and there were multiple pieces on the editorial page just fawning over Kasich and wondering why the GOP had rejected this obviously perfect candidate. I think that says everything we need to know.
First- if Kasich wasn’t in the race the last the last 6 weeks, the race would already be over because Trump would have been 100% certain to win on the first ballot. Kasich’s presence makes it possible for Cruz to win on the second ballot at the convention, though I don’t think Cruz will be allowed to win at that stage either.
Now, why is Kasich persisting? That is easy- so that he is the most likely alternative to Trump and Cruz if the convention goes beyond the first ballot. Also, by continuing to pile up delegate support, he is in a position to extract a deal from the two front-runners for support on the first ballot, though I think that deal would have to come from Trump rather than Cruz at this point.
Yancey Ward:
I have read many analyses that say Kasich is hurting Cruz more than he is hurting Trump. Just the opposite of what you say. I’m not sure which it is, myself.
At any rate, as I wrote, I’m mostly curious about why people are still voting for Kasich.
Seems to me it is the “moderate” Republicans that go for Kasich.
Moderate Republicans are pinheads. They hate tough choices.
If you’re a RINO, you’re a RINO. A mind being difficult to change and all that.
So they vote for Kasich. He’s like them. What’s the harm in a little more Medicaid? The Feds will pay for a few years, and by that time I will have moved on, says Kasich.
Moderates think the road of the kicked can is of infinite length. That’s why they stick with him.
Winning the nomination at any time on any ballot requires a majority of the total delegates. If at any time a majority of the delegates were ready to vote for Kasich (or Paul Ryan, or James Mattis, or whatever), it would be the work of a moment to first change the rules to allow their candidate to be officially nominated. So Rule 40 is kind of a red herring.
As to why people vote for Kasich? If you violently oppose Trump, and don’t like Cruz, then surely voting for Kasich is your best bet. If stopping Trump if your highest priority, it’s conceivable than vote for Cruz is more effectual in achieving that goal than a vote for Kasich, but the complexity of the delegate selection rules is such that it’s hard to be sure, so you might as well go with your actual preference. In the New York primary, weren’t votes for Kasich more effectual in depriving Trump of delegates than votes for Cruz? In fact, one might ask why any New Yorkers bothered voting for Cruz.
P.S. As for Kasich himself, I always remember something Walter Mondale wrote. After the convention, he said, I knew that our chances in the election were not that great, but I also knew that I had the second best chance of everyone in the world at winning the presidency. Right now, Kasich has the third best chance of everyone in the world at winning the Republican presidential nomination, which in his case would almost assure winning the presidency, since the Republicans will need to nominate someone who is wildly unpopular if they want to lose to Hillary.
Ego. You need a large ego to run for ANY political position.
Self-effacing people never run for political office
You need a MASSIVE ego to run for POTUS. Testing that proposition…
Clinton Cruz Kasich Sanders Trump
IMHO they each have quite self-positive views of themselves.
Neo,
Kasich voters are anti-Trump and anti-Cruz- people are asking why people are voting for Kasich at all- and that is it right there. Without Kasich in the race, most of his voters just stay home, and that leaves Trump with a dominant position- suddenly his 40% vs Cruz’s 30% turns into 57% vs 43%, and he would be home free.
Long time follower of this blog.
I am fiscally conservative and support gun rights, gay rights, banning late term abortion etc etc .. now you know how to label me 🙂 .
Trump’s policies are simply silly (there is no other way to describe them) .. can’t support him.
Cruz is a jesus-freak, used car salesman who repulses me every time he opens his mouth and talks in that slow, annoying, hectoring drawl. You think Obama spoke in messianic tones, this guy outdoes Obama and has a similar track record of no accomplishments.
Kasich – experienced, pragmatic, proven .. gets my vote.
Whether at this late stage that vote has meaning or not, doesn’t matter. My vote is too precious and sacred to be associated with a trump or cruz… strategy/end results notwithstanding!!
PS:
Do the right things, without worrying about the results.
If you do the right things, the right results will follow.
—
The above principle always works in life.
Losingnow:
Nothing “always” works in life.
OM : Principles do 🙂
Re. Ego
My “kid” brother cycled over to a diner outside Indianapolis the other day to catch a Cruz drop in.
He described him as really approachable; posing for photos with kids and the old ladies who wanted to hug him. Standing there, patiently in the sun, while the crowd pressed for access, craned their necks and lifted their smartphones for snapshots.
A certain person who shall go unnamed even had the temerity to pose himself for a shot wherein he threw his arm around Cruz’ shoulder; as Cruz dutifully cooperated with him and the other locals who wanted images taken of their kids with the famous Presidential Candidate.
Cruz’s wife Heidi smilingly stood for the same treatment; though of course no one would have thought to plop an arm on her shoulder for a “pal pose”.
This is the great stiff, the calculating and remote egotist, everyone is talking about.
Losingnow:
Principles do not assure outcomes. There is this thing called evil in the world. Your results may vary.
Neo,
Lost your e-mail or would have sent you a couple of images that were forwarded to me.
Following your principles assures success in the most important test, that you followed your principles. Obviously, it doesn’t always bring success in more mundane goals, as Dietrich Bonhoeffer and John Brown and Thomas More and a million others can tell you, but neither does any other strategy.
losingnow– Funny, I have visceral negative feelings toward Kasich, just as you had for Cruz. Whiny, petulant, acting as though there were no possible reasons voter could support another candidate.
That leaves Cruz– not electable. And Trump? “Policies? We don’t got no stinkin’ policies. We don’t NEED no stinkin’ policies!”
My position is simple– Anybody But Hillary. Trump has gotten the “I’m mad as Hell and I’m not going to take it any more!” vote, and if we conservatives can hold our noses and vote for the Donald, I think we will at least have a good chance to get somebody other than Hillary.
Hillary has unleashed her internet troll army… per Drudge.
Small k is so far from the brass ring — ’tis to laugh.
I would argue that HE’S Hillary’s minion at this time.
Note the WaPo Friday offensive.
It’s orchestrated.
DNW:
If you look at the top of the blog, right under the photo of the table, you’ll see a red strip that says “Home,” “Email,” and “Bio.” Click on “Email” and you’ll find the email address for me (it’s written out that way because I don’t like to put it in the body of the blog; it attracts more and more spam).
Ah, was looking in the for “JKau…” or something similar. Can’t even remember why I received it in the first place. You must have been reading me out privately. LOL
Not sending them to get you to put them up. Just as a kind of FYI for someone already in the know.
Makes you wonder about “professional” commentators’ standards.
Well, no, I guess it doesn’t.