Ditch and Switch to Trump—and then switch back?
A couple of weeks ago Rush Limbaugh opined on Democratic support for Trump:
Now, what’s going on here? You think this is legit? Look at these three states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois…Rust Belt states, traditionally Democrat states other than Ohio, which is always up for grabs. Are we witnessing a massive Democrat-sponsored Operation Chaos, or is this for real?…
…Ditch and Switch is the name of this so-called organic movement of so-called…Democrats registering as Republicans. There’s a name for the movement. It’s called Ditch and Switch. And of course, I ask the question: “Is this real?”
Is this an honest? Is this a stealth Democrat Operation Chaos, or is it genuine?
I’ve wondered pretty much the very same thing myself for a long time. No one has a clue what the answer is. My guess is that it’s some of both, but I don’t know the percentage of each. However, the reason I think that it’s mainly a form of Operation Chaos and that those voters who represent a genuine switch are too small a group to help Trump in the general election is that it’s not reflected in polls of a head-to-head contest between Trump and either Clinton or Sanders. In such polls that bother to measure Democratic support for each Republican candidate, Trump gains essentially no more Democrats than someone like Cruz does, and sometimes fewer than Cruz does. You may discount such polls—but as I’ve said before, they’re all the hard evidence we have. The evidence of these Democrats switching registration to Republican for the sake of the primaries is only evidence that many Democrats want to vote for Trump in the primaries, but tells us nothing about the sincerity of their actual support for him and whether it would carry over into the general.
National polls indicate Trump continues to do poorly against Clinton in the general, and that has been one of the most consistent poll findings so far during this long campaign season. Unfortunately, not many of these national polls bother to break down that support (of Trump or anyone else) into Democrat vs. Republican, but the few that do have not indicated that Trump draws any more Democratic support in such a match-up than other GOP candidates. I’ve analyzed the subject in some depth here and here, and I’ve seen nothing since that contradicts the conclusions I came to in those posts: that Trump’s actual support from Democrats in a general election against Clinton would be small and would not lead to a Trump victory. Not to mention the fact that his support among Republicans is historically weak for a GOP candidate, too.
1) Cruz wins WI, by a lot.
2) Support for Trump sags elsewhere, but never completely.
3) Nobody gets 1237, or close enough for unbound delegates to make up the difference on a 1st ballot.
4) The convention will be contested, and Trump’s delegates abandon him in droves on the 2nd ballot.
5) Cruz gets the nomination, and whoops Hillary in the general election. Recalcitrant Trumpkins make no difference.
6) America starts the long process of healing from the disastrous Obama years, and people get to see what a real conservative president is like.
7) America lives happily ever after.
The End.
Matt_SE,
I hope your crystal ball is accurate. 😉
I think it is very possible that ditch and switch has put Trump on top in primaries where he won by a few percent. Its a perfect plan for the dnc to game the process for the nominee they want to face in November. Even if it does not give Trump 1237, it has created chaos and division in the ranks of the gop.
Former Democrats are one of Trump’s 3 pillars of support, along with Alternative Right and betrayed conservatives/Republicans.
I wouldn’t downplay the Democrat support, but Democrats Obey Orders. They can easily turn against Trump, if the Left offers them their piece of red meat.
It’s always been the case, since these white welfare Democrats voted for Hussein and Kerry as the Nationalist “war hero” remember.
It is likely the original deal was that Trump would attack Republicans and sow confusion, but would throw the fight to avoid being the top winner in the primaries. If he somehow did manage to win, and Trump would have ensured he got this in with the Clintons, then Trump would go “full out” for the Presidency.
That sounds like a Deal Trump would hold to. Although that might no longer apply now, since Trump thinks he can win, so he may no longer be trying to lose.
The Wisconsin results will tell the story. If Trump loses, it’s an indication of the likelihood of a brokered convention. Odds are that in a brokered convention, Trump will walk, claiming the nomination was stolen from him.
That will draw away enough support from the republican nominee, to hand the election to the democrat, unless ISIS stupidly gets impatient.
“7) America lives happily ever after.” Matt_SE
You’re a day late for an April Fools day joke, Matt.
The typical delegate is going to heave contemplating Trump in the Fall.
It’s his polling numbers.
Really, that’s ALL that the delegates will focus on.
If Trump can’t win by the second ballot — he’s done.
&&&&&
As for the impact of social media — it’s HUGE.
It’s largely confined to the young.
Without a doubt Trump has picked up Democrat activist votes in New Hampshire and elsewhere — designed to befoul the GOP primaries.
The math is TOO obvious — to the activists.
I think there are a number of Democrats who are voting for Trump in the primaries who will also support him in the general election. This small segment of Democrats are enough to help him win marginally over other Republican Candidates but will have minimal effect in the general election.
Since the race between between Hillary and Bernie is heating up Democrats have an incentive to vote for their own candidates from here on out rather than messing with the Republican elections.
Dennis,
You have a dream. Fine. Watch out for the nightmare.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/todd-akin-missouri-claire-mccaskill-2012-121262
Claire McCaskill admitted she played similar games with the GOP nomination process in MO.
In light of this, I’ve wondered if there isn’t something going on re: Trump’s support.
The Dems have a pretty good big data operation. Wouldn’t take much to find those who might have voted Obama, but are deeply disappointed.
Confident that the Dems are that they could defeat Trump, given that they may have “lost” those votes anyway, why not leverage that group for their own purposes.
They turn on their outreach / GOTV operation to motivate them to vote Trump in the GOP open primaries, giving Trump a boost at the margins to win and, voila, Trump wins.
.
Aside from Wisconsin, there are five Open primaries, three of which are Winner Take All. Those three are worth 135 delegates. One of them is New Jersey – probably plenty of disaffected Dems.
In any case, unless Trump wins California, he has to win all the rest (other than Wisconsin) of the WTA states (assuming Trump gets all of Carson’s 8 delegates, all of the yet to be allocated 35 delegates from previous contests, and 43% of delegate share from the seven proportional states) all of which is unlikely.
Latest poll shows Cruz moving up significantly in CA – virtually tied with Trump.
California is the one to watch for after Wisconsin.