Five myths about the New Hampshire primary
Here are the five.
About that first one—the article neglects to mention that the main reason there are so many independent (“undeclared”) voters in New Hampshire is that not registering with a party means a person can vote in either party’s primary. That’s a pretty strong motivation to remain independent. I suppose there also might be the satisfaction of saying you’re not a party member when in fact you pretty much always vote one party or other, and only cross lines in order to wreak havoc with the other party’s results.
As I wrote earlier, this year since both parties’ races are contested I don’t think there will be quite as much of those particular crossover shenanigans as can happen when one party has an incumbent.
Here’s another post I wrote just a few days ago about forecasting the New Hampshire results. You won’t catch me doing it, nosiree.
But I will go on record as saying I think turnout will be large.
One more thing, about polls—I keep clicking on headlines that shout that this or that candidate has dropped or risen in the polls, and when I read the article I discover it’s talking about something on the order of a point or two shift in a poll that has at least a plus minus five point margin of error, with something like 40% undecided. A huge change might sort of mean something, but a point or two? Give me a break. Anything for a story.
at this point i am missing jello
but then again, with cosby bs too, jello isnt fun any more
The NH primary results may persuade a few republican candidates to drop out. That of course would be impactful.
That said, I place little importance upon the NH primary results for a couple of reasons;
On the democrat side, Sanders already has it in the bag, which is only to be expected. Had he decisively won the Iowa primary, then he’d have seriously hurt Hillary’s electoral credibility.
Hillary’s political fate will be decided first by Obama, since AG Lynch is his lackey and, if unindicted and she stays in, secondly by the super Tuesday results.
On the republican side, Trump’s voters will not change their minds, having a ‘let it all burn’ mentality.
Cruz’s supporters are “constitutionalists” and evangelicals, since he’s the only real choice in that calculus, his vote count at this point is pretty much set in cement.
Which leaves Rubio, who may gain some but the other candidates remaining in the race will dilute any establishment voter support. Such as Kasich, who is purportedly doing well, which if realized, will dilute Rubio’s support.
A good article. People think things about us that aren’t so. As Geoffrey’s post suggests, our primary function is to remove candidates, not speed any on with a blessing.
I voted Kasich this morning. I can’t see Trump defectors ending up in his camp as the campaign goes forward, but then, who knows what they will do? I think they are as likely to go to Sanders as to Cruz, and more likely to stay home than anything. You can count on that analysis to be wrong, based on previous predictions of mine.
Assistant Village Idiot:
Trump defectors as likely to go to The Bern as to Cruz? If that’s true, if one of each ever talked to each other, both their heads would explode.
BTW, I’ve seen that sig before but can’t place where. Volokh, maybe?
My reading on Trump supporters is that they just want to shake things up. Bernie doesn’t announce it much now, but he has been strongly against immigration because he believes it hurts black people. He and Trump both like confiscatory tax rates for the super-rich, though for different reasons.
I comment at Maggie’s Farm, and used to at Volokh’s. Grim’s Hall, Chicago Boyz. Check my sidebar, I guess.