Home » Forecasting the New Hampshire primary

Comments

Forecasting the New Hampshire primary — 17 Comments

  1. Neo:
    Another recent New Hampshire poll was taken by UMassLowell/WMUR, which also contains both pre-Iowa and post-Iowa results.

    In Many times Neo very uncomfortable with polls specially when it comes to different subjects…But now she is very confident with polls?

    Is there change in mind or something els?

  2. And Iowa is very, very different than Nebraska. Trust me.

    I’m wondering how low Bush will poll. I say he gets less than 5% and drops out.

  3. Though I’m utterly uninterested in opinion polling as such, here’s more of it concerning an issue I find completely unacceptable: namely, using opinion polling to exclude an important candidate from Saturday’s debate only three days prior to the primary vote itself. It’s not simply unconscionable, it’s contrary to the interests of New Hampshire primary voters, for whom, after all, the whole apparatus exists.

    Kemberlee Kaye, College Insurrection: What if GOP Candidates escorted Carly Fiorina onto debate stage?

  4. Cruz has an opportunity to use his constitutionalism as assurance that individual liberty (Live free or die) is among his highest principles because ‘free will’ is a God ordained gift to all Americans… and because liberty and free will are inseparable.

    That “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” are our “unalienable” rights because they are ‘rights’ granted to all mankind by a creator that stands above mankind’s various opinions.

    Which is why he can honestly assure NH voters and all Americans that his evangelism is a personal issue and not something he seeks to impose on others. That his faith, in proclaiming that God is the source of mankind’s free will, forbids the imposition of personal belief upon others.

    It’s potentially a ‘teaching moment’ for Cruz, demonstrating why Lincoln proclaimed that, “Don’t interfere with anything in the Constitution. That must be maintained, for it is the only safeguard of our liberties”.

    Cruz needs to stand behind the premise that a return to fidelity to our Constitution is the only path to American prosperity and honor.

  5. If it must be a teaching moment, it might be a good idea to at least mention Thomas Hobbes in passing — in the interests of full disclosure, that is. Better however, with Hobbes, to remain silent about Hobbes’ predecessor-collaborator Nicolo M., since there are prudential considerations for discretion with that story. So, stress the Englishman, ignore the Italian.

  6. Japan:

    Why don’t you try actually reading what I say in the post before you make nonsensical comments like that.

    “Very confident with polls” is just a bizarre way to characterize this post and what it says.

    I am pretty sure English is not your first language, but you need to understand it before you can comment thoughtfully on something written in it.

  7. Japan’s faking it. How do I know? Japan’s got no problem with writing the “R.”

  8. Assuming Trump’s numbers hold through NH, and SC and he gets momentum, then the only way to stop him is to cut the field and fast. The “splitter” strategy isn’t working. If it came down to a 3 man race, I suspect the supporters of the likes of Kasich would gravitate towards Rubio or Cruz, not Trump.

    Since Trump may have hit his ceiling. I’d prefer the support go to Cruz. As this blogger notes, Rubio is unqualified for the job:

    A single term 45-year-old Senator with no executive experience, no legislative accomplishments, four kids, no accumulated wealth or financial security, and he is qualified to be president of the United States because he has, well, ‘potential‘.

    Seriously?

  9. GB,

    I agree, the NH debate is a great venue for Cruz to begin smoothing the feathers of those who are leery of an evangelical in high office.

    BTW,

    I read you prep blog and think it is comprehensive advice for preparedness.

  10. Frog,

    Thanks for the link, I knew Rubio was an opportunist, now I know he’s a rat. A veritable litany of betrayal and a record that every democrat must envy.

  11. “A single term 45-year-old Senator with no executive experience, no legislative accomplishments, four kids, no accumulated wealth or financial security, and he is qualified to be president of the United States because he has, well, ‘potential‘.”

    This, except for the lack of wealth, describes another Senator who ran successfully for President – John F. Kennedy.

    I blame Kennedy and TV for the presidential elections becoming popularity contests that awards the most photogenic and charismatic with high office.

    Should he get the nomination, Rubio, much like G. W. Bush and JFK, would need to add some gravitas to the ticket by selecting an experienced, older man to the Veep slot.

    Rubio might be inexperienced, but he does have, according to the Heritage Foundation, the fourth most conservative voting record in the Senate. That indicates that he trends conservative and could be amenable to conservative solutions to the country’s problems.

    JFK was not a terrible President, especially for a democrat. It was his VP, LBJ, who wreaked so much leftist damage on the nation.

  12. I happily predict fewer mischief-making crossover voters in this New Hampshire primary. The Dems have a real race on their hands so I consider it less likely that left-leaning “independents” will choose Republican ballots just to mess with the race. Last primary there was nothing happening on the Dem ballot (it was Obama) so there were lots of crossovers. I speak as a ballot clerk in a medium-small NH town. People have actually told me to my face they were doing that … and seemed proud of it and amused with themselves!

    I also predict lots of last-minute decision making. There are too many Republican candidates, still. Many of us are trying to figure out where our vote will do the most good. I think the debate tonight will be important for late deciders. Snow is predicated and may affect turnout for the less motivated.

    I really don’t think Trump is going to do as well as he has been polling here. If he wins it will be because Bush, Kasich, and Christie (and Fiorina, and Carson I guess) are still in the race.

    I don’t dislike Bush but it is obviously not going to happen for him, so I wish he would stop tearing down other Republicans with his money and mouth. (Of course I feel that way about Trump too. And Christie has unleashed a mean streak of late.) I have gotten more mailers from Jeb (or Jeb’s PAC) than anyone else. Next time someone complains that money buys elections, I will point to Jeb!

  13. And yes we are sick of polling phone calls here in NH! I personally have never, ever answered a poll and I don’t know anyone who has – and we all talk about how we don’t know anyone who has. So, we will have to wait till Tuesday to know who the poll-silent majority likes!

  14. J.J. — Kennedy had been a PT Boat commander in World War II, something that still mattered in 1960, and he and his brother Robert had become national figures while on the Senate Rackets Committee. He was head and shoulders above where Rubio is now.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

HTML tags allowed in your comment: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>