First post-debate polls
It seems that a poll of Republicans who watched the debate last night showed Trump and Fiorina even at 22%, Rubio at 15%, Carson at 12%, and Cruz and Bush tied at 6%. That’s not a poll of who won the debate; it’s a poll for preferred candidate to vote for as nominee.
That indicates quite a difference between opinions before and after the debate. I have no idea if it’s representative, but it’s certainly interesting. It shows that preferences are still fluid and shifting, and they probably have quite a bit of shifting to go before it’s all done.
I found another poll somewhere a week or so ago (can’t seem to find it now—I’m doing this quickly—but I found another with similar results here) that showed which candidates are the most popular second choices for Republican voters. That may sound like it doesn’t matter much. But as candidates start dropping out if could matter a lot in terms of where those votes then go.
Trump does not seem to be the preferred second choice for many people; it seems that maybe you either like him or dislike him already. So the theory is that, as the field narrows, others will pick up votes from the departed candidates, and the most popular second choices are Carson, Rubio, and Fiorina, with all three almost even at around 12.4-13.7%. Walker is not too far behind at 9% and Cruz at 8.8%. Only then comes Trump, at 8.2%, and he is only slightly above Bush’s 7.7%.
All these second-choice figures were from before the second debate rather than after. I would imagine that Fiorina and Rubio may have increased their second-choice status because of their performances last night, and I can’t imagine that Trump enhanced his.
[Hat tip: Ace.]
Abraham Lincoln was a second choice nominee in 1860.
I dislike states with the caucus system. I prefer the closed primary method. If you want to register as a R or a D, then you better do it within the state’s timeframe. In OK, it is 30 days before the primaries.
Since we vote later in the year, I have to keep options open. Who I like now may drop out by the time I get to vote my preference.
Like I said, the system is rigged, including the primaries.
The system isn’t rigged. We saw last cycle that the voters changed their minds constantly, with a half-dozen candidates rising to or near the top then falling. It’s happening again. In a year we’re going to be laughing about the Trump blip.
Yea Nick, I’m sure people like you who think 130% reporting in various city precincts, isn’t rigged. That puts you into the same slot as the rulers all right.
Ymarsakar – Sorry. I didn’t realize you were talking about voter fraud. Yes, that happens. But it doesn’t have anything to do with the accuracy of pre-election polling.