So, about that Storm of the Century in New York City…
On the other hand, Boston and New England are still somewhat under the weather.
The New Neo
A blog about political change, among other things
On the other hand, Boston and New England are still somewhat under the weather.
I was right!
I nearly always discount weather reports.
Drama and controversy is what they love.
Here in Omaha, the local news consists of weather, Corn football and shootings with the occasional heart-warming story.
My kids are loving it. Snow = vacation.
It’s an eerily silent world when these events occur. As of 8:30, in Southern NH we have had maybe a foot + with drifts, could be a couple more hours of peak snow. I don’t have a problem with the state shutting the highways down so they can stay on top of road conditions. I think it is faster for everyone and more effective.
I do worry about the media hyping weather that doesn’t materialize, but they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
Moving on to Plan B.
“It would have been a historic storm, if not for Global Warming!”
Climatologists, Meteorologists, Scientists with the use of their very sophisticated computer models provided enough impetus for Mayor Deblasio to shut down the NYC subway system for the first time in history over, “Snowgeddon”.
NOW?
Well, now it is known that the very sophisticated computer models were in fact off by 50-100 miles with respect to the storm’s path. Some might say, “Better safe than sorry?”
Okay.
But then, if one considers the very sophisticated computer modeling being used by scientists who speak with similar certitudes about, “GLOBAL WARMING”, one is given pause to consider:
Hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars generated and funneled towards energies to combat this “certainty” they insist is upon us. Al Gore and Company benefit handsomely while reaping tremendous windfalls of cash being thrown at them for their, “wisdom”.
Computer modeling and a lot of bluster is what they have to back up their claims.
Drama, hysteria, and certitude is employed by, academia, mainstream media, Hollywood celebrities, Progressive politicians. Not much different from DeBlasio’s behavior yesterday.
Meanwhile, just as the computer models have proven to be 50-100 miles inaccurate in this Northeast “Snowgeddon” affair, the aforementioned dramatists hold dear to exactitudes of computer modeling, insisting that $$$Billions and $$$Trillions are justifiable in spending on the preparations and reversal strategies of an definitive catastrophe coming vis a vis GLOBAL WARMING, er, CLIMATE CHANGE, er, whatever…
After all, “better safe than sorry…”
Meanwhile, Obama has been actively fighting with the Pentagon in hiding the military’s decision that Bowe Berghdahl is to be tried for desertion.
FIVE dangerous Gitmo prisoners given up for a deserter. Sounds more and more equitable/judicious every day.
Obama has successfully covered up these findings for months. I mean, you got to give him credit for that, no? Transparency, it comes in so many forms.
Here in TX we have our own form of hyping bad weather on TV. In the summer, when one could give a daily forecast of “High 95-100, low 77, no rain” every day for three months,the summer TV weather persons will bloviate about the cloud that was seen 100 miles away on the weather radar that JUST MIGHT result in rain.
Those living in the Northeast will laugh at what is considered bad winter weather in TX. Like snow or an ice storm once every five years. The TV stations will cut out regularly scheduled programs to feature some intrepid reporter reporting outside to inform viewers that YES, there is snow or Yes there is ice, and YES motor vehicles have been known to slip and slide under such conditions.
Highly forecast weather disasters almost never meet expectations. The unforecast ones can be quite a trial.
Christmas Eve 0f 1982 in Denver. Snow was forecast, but snow is not a big deal in Denver. The mayor, Bill McNichols sent most of his snowplow operators home. This snow storm turned out to be a monster blizzard, which hit with such sudden ferocity that by the time they realized they needed the operators back, they couldn’t get to the snowplows. This storm lasted for 24 hours piling up 29″ with drifts to five feet. The city was paralyzed for almost a week before people could get back to some semblance of normal. The side streets were not plowed until the city could arrange for private contractors (mostly pickup owners with snow blades mounted on their pickups) to go in and plow them. The storm is now remembered as the Big Dig. The effects lasted for months because there was a lot of compacted snow on roads, which turned to black ice and it didn’t melt finally until March. Mayor McNichols lost his job over his decision to send the plow operators home early.
For eight years (1993 – 2000) I lived in a small town in the Cascade Mountains. Snow was a weekly, sometimes daily, occurrence from November to April. 24 – 36″ was common. Everyone was equipped and able to function pretty normally. It all depends on what you are equipped to deal with.
However, the reaction to this forecast seemed to me to be completely overdone. But I guess a lot of Mayors and Governors may remember what happened to Bill McNichols.
Everyone should be glad that this storm is less severe and widespread then originally predicted. Fewer people died and less property damage was done.
That said the take away is that despite a half dozen forecasting models (GSI, NAM, Euro etc.) they all failed to accurately predict. Which after all is what models are for.
So when it comes to AGW with century long forecasts lets step back and realize it’s absolutely impossible to do that kind of forecasting.
Unless the singularity comes and super intelligent robots figure out a way, weather forecasting will remain very iffy for decades to come.
It’s a damned if you do; damned if you don’t.
It’s petering out where I am (NH) and people are starting to move about. The snow is within an inch of the bottom of the mail boxes. If we didn’t hit or exceed the forecast, we came close.
GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT. Models obviously can be misused, but the geniuses have so much ego involvement and emotional investment in them, it is like they are wearing blinders. They see models as ends in themselves, instead of as tools. Since they are surrounded by yes men, they have round robins of mutual self congratulations that are self promoting and self serving. In other words, they actually believe their own hype and spin.
The manufacture of complex microwave switches depends on models. These switches often have multiple subsystems and feedback loops, and each subsystem, may in turn, have multiple subsystems and feedback loops, of its own. No matter how clever and ingenious the design and concept are, it doesn’t take much to throw the prototype out of spec. Sometimes it is shocking how the smallest and most insignificant change can skew the end result.
“Models obviously can be misused”
It seems like all the weather forecasters are looking at multiple models, which vary widely in predictions – which makes the whole thing crap apparently. That’s my read on it the past few times we’ve had something predicted.
I don’t think we’re getting any snow this winter where I live, although I guess we have another month where it is possible. It’s been 60 plus for the last week or two, though.
A decent sized snowfall in Western MA- nothing out of the ordinary- my FB page tell me they got much more east of here
In flyover country most people deal with floods, tornadoes, droughts, bitter cold, and blizzards with a shrug of their shoulders. Occasional extreme weather is merely a part of life on earth. Too many soft, panic prone people in America relying on big nanny. No wonder we are sliding to an abyss of debt and Jimmy’s malaise.
As Harold notes: “That said the take away is that despite a half dozen forecasting models (GSI, NAM, Euro etc.) they all failed to accurately predict. Which after all is what models are for.
So when it comes to AGW with century long forecasts lets step back and realize it’s absolutely impossible to do that kind of forecasting.”
The failure of the models is especially damning in that they were for only 24 hours. One assumes that 24 years would really be a shot in the dark.
A climatological prediction beyond 2 months is a shot into the dark. Everything under the sun is ruled by the sun. Personally, I am glad the ‘mini ice age’ ended a few centuries ago. Keeping flying you private jet Al.