The fog of Egypt
Today’s news is that between 100-150 people have been killed in two protest camps in Cairo as police attempted to clear them out.
When I saw the headlines, I immediately pictured a big tent city, and then government security forces coming in and opening fire on the unsuspecting crowd. Just as quickly, I realized that’s not necessarily what happened, and that furthermore we are unlikely to ever know what really happened, because those reporting on it are either biased and/or because it’s not always easy even for eyewitnesses to know what’s happening in such situations. The area is large; gunfire can come from different directions. Who fired first? And why?
Let’s take a look at CNN’s report:
The violence began with Egyptian security forces storming the two massive makeshift camps filled with Morsy supporters, bulldozing tents and escorting away hundreds of protesters.
Chaos ensued. Many protesters refused to leave, even in the face of bulldozers and surrounded by the injured and dead. “They said they’re prepared to die,” CNN’s Reza Sayah reported from Cairo.
“It’s an open war,” one protester told Sayah.
Along with smoke, bursts of rapid gunfire continued to fill the air. It was unclear who had the weapons, and who was shooting at whom. People could be heard wailing.
State TV reported that snipers from the Muslim Brotherhood — Morsy’s party — were exchanging gunfire with Egyptian security forces near a university building.
Several newspeople were killed or injured in the melee, as well.
That was not the only violence:
Morsy supporters besieged various churches in Sohag, setting fire to Saint George’s Church, a tour bus and a police car, Egypt’s state-run EgyNews reported.
Interior Ministry sources told CNN that Muslim Brotherhood supporters also attacked three police stations around Egypt.
Naguib Sawiris, an Egyptian billionaire who helped found the anti-Morsy Free Egyptian Party, said his party had video of Muslim Brotherhood members “shooting machine guns on civilians, on police. So anyone who wants to call this a peaceful demonstration would be wrong.”..
But Ahmed Mustafa, Muslim Brotherhood spokesman, told CNN from London that Sawiris was trying to misrepresent video of masked people with weapons…
The Interior Ministry said security forces did not use gunfire and instead were attacked by “terrorist elements” inside the camps.
“Egyptian security forces are committed to the utmost self-restraint in dealing with the protesters,” the ministry said.
Representatives of both sides insisted they oppose violence…
The government has accused the protesters of packing the sites with their children to use them as human shields.
The propaganda war is almost as hot (although not as bloody) and definitely as important as the actual war. And I challenge anyone to figure it out at this point. But I do know that deliberately provoking violence from security forces and then using the resultant casualties as propaganda as a common tactic. And I also know that violence and then the declaration of a state of emergency by the government is a common way for authorities to gain more power, especially if that state of emergency is continued indefinitely, as was done by Mubarak for thirty years.
Let’s look at how the WSJ covered the incident:
“This only has one name: terrorism,” said Hassan Mohamed, a 25-year-old Egyptian who supported the government’s crackdown on the sit-ins. He pointed to a factory that he said Brotherhood supporters had set on fire, the flames consuming the entire 10-story building. “They are terrorizing the city and they are terrorizing us.”
His comments exemplified the existential challenges consuming Egypt, in what has emerged as a neighbor-against-neighbor battle for the country’s political soul and whether it will become a secular or Islamic state.
“With our blood and with our soul we will sacrifice for Islam and bring Sisi down,” protesters screamed and clapped on the street, referring to the leader of the armed forces who orchestrated the coup against Mr. Morsi and his Brotherhood-dominated government following a massive popular uprising.
Civilians battling the Brotherhood supporters responded by chanting “the army and the people [are] one hand!”
One thing is fairly clear, which is that many of the Morsi supporters are ready and willing (perhaps even eager?) to die for the cause: “With our blood and with our soul we will sacrifice for Islam and bring Sisi down.” And so it is not difficult to imagine the instigation of violence could be on that side.
But the best and most accurate quote was probably this one, allegedly spoken by a soldier who blocked newspeople from going to one of the scenes:
“You can’t go in. We’re shooting at them, they’re shooting at us. Everyone is shooting at everyone,” the soldier said.
Indeed.
The MB want violent street theater.
It’s their style of agitprop warfare.
Their timing stinks: August has everyone who really counts on vacation.
The MB has so many weapons (ex-Libyan, ex-Egyptian) that an all around shoot out may be right around the corner.
In which case, we’re going to see the Egyptian version of the regular army versus the brown shirts.
If it gets serious, expect a media/ Internet blackout.
In the meantime, their economy will be in total free fall.
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Somewhat related:
Israel is now choking on her natural gas bounty. There is talk of using it to stimulate recoveries of her shale oil deposits. The buzz is that Israel has such extensive deposits that, if economic, she could export crude in size.
America is now ramping up refined petroleum exports. These are approaching 3 mbpd. (!) This is more than double that of six years ago.
America is also fading crude oil imports. These are down about 3mbpd over the last six years.
As this trend continues, it may be said that we’ve passed peak Islam.
KSA has lost pricing power. The kingdom’s (political stability) need to import food has taken away its toleration for lower production, lower prices.
The thought of dumping its sovereign investments/ ‘opiprop’ control positions in the West is abhorrent.
[ Opiprop = opiate propaganda = anesthetic rhetorical balm ]
[ Not unrelated to double speak and hypocrisy; it is the anti-thesis of agitprop. ]
““With our blood and with our soul we will sacrifice for Islam and bring Sisi down,” protesters screamed and clapped on the street, referring to the leader of the armed forces who orchestrated the coup against Mr. Morsi and his Brotherhood-dominated government following a massive popular uprising.”
versus
“Civilians battling the Brotherhood supporters responded by chanting ‘the army and the people [are] one hand!'”
It would appear that this is militant, fundamentalist Islam against moderate Islam. It could become a full blown civil war, although I doubt it. I think the MB will back down when it becomes plain they can’t win in the streets or militarily. Then it’s back to a military regime (Possibly somewhat kinder and gentler than Mubarak) trying to keep the economy afloat (With help from the Saudis) while the MB goes back to trying to regain power through internal subterfuge.
If I believed that there was a case for Muslims morphing into freedom-loving liberals, I would be rooting for the army and their supporters. But in this fight, I have no favorite dog.
It matters little what the U.S. does (Except keep the Suez open) or doesn’t do, they will still hate us.
For years liberals blamed Bush for the near-civil war which engulfed Iraq post-invasion. Looking at Syria and Egypt, one wonders if “the insurgency” was inevitable. (As far as I know there is no significant Shiite element in Egypt, so the comparison may not be apt).
This violence, the chaos, and the soon-to-come nightmare rests at Obama’s feet. For it is Obama who has made the US influence around the world, and especially in the middle-East irrelevant.
Carter allowed the terror-regime to come to power in Tehran; is Obama allowing the same in Cairo?
Charles,
The Muslims are free-willed people, responsible for their actions. One can only lay so much at the feet of Western intervention or the lack thereof. I’m not saying Obama’s moves aren’t boneheaded or evil (the former when the latter backfires), but this view from the glasses of “Western hegemony” is like the Leftists thinking we’re still in the Jim Crow era and blaming all societal troubles on right-wing whitey (or just whitey).
The consequences of the events of the recent years in the Muslim world may well be serious, but I’m done assuming active external hands making it all happen. Did anyone make the Europeans fight their Wars of the Reformation in the 16th and 17th centuries? Neither can the Muslims blame their troubles and strife on the West anymore, in this day and age where the West has decolonized and is in fact by them (Muslim invader-immigrants) being colonized. I mean they can throw the blame, but it’s high time outside observers stopped giving their words respect.
Globalvillagism is an old and tired view. It would be better for the nations of the world to realize each of them isn’t owed a thing by any of the others.
The Morsi folks may be ready to die but they sure want to drag a lot of people down with them: 22 Christian churches set on fire by Morsi supporters.
http://tinyurl.com/ljh5prm
The M. Bros. only path seems to be to shame the military into relenting. But the military must know what will follow if they restore the M. Bros. to power, or if they risk a real election.
As with Syria, when anti-Semites kill each other, what to do?
One person not to ask is John McCain. In this situation, an Obama dither is preferable.
Here’s a link to an interview with Niall Ferguson on 2/14/11:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9slquoIuPC8
In it he pretty much predicts what has happened. Ferguson also opines that Obama has never been on top of the ME situation because he is an amateur being advised by amateurs. Methinks he’s right.
If the army is killing MB types, I am 100% OK with that.
“One thing is fairly clear, which is that many of the Morsi supporters are ready and willing (perhaps even eager?) to die for the cause: “With our blood and with our soul we will sacrifice for Islam and bring Sisi down.” And so it is not difficult to imagine the instigation of violence could be on that side.”
That being what Islamists do.
Carter loved those Iranian fundamentalists.
It is the nature of the Left to like their allies more than their enemies.