Whatsamatter, don’t you like roller coaster rides?
I’m surprised that so many people are falling for the meme du jour, which is that Romney/Ryan have already lost the election.
I often get nervous about this election, because I think the stakes are so high. But unless my calender is profoundly awry, when last I checked we had about two months to go till November, and we can except the polls to go up and down and up and down before then.
People on the right appear to be just as susceptible to propaganda as those on the left. That really shouldn’t surprise me; propagandists are very good at what they do, and humans are humans. But discouragement is uncalled for at this point, although nervousness has always been appropriate.
What will almost certainly matter most this year—and what is exceedingly unpredictable, even to pollsters who might be trying with all their might to get it right—is turnout.
But how good are polls as prognosticators, especially in elections that will probably be somewhat close? Not very.
[ADDENDUM: 
Sorry if this has been linked before (I missed it if it was), read this for a[nother] personal glimpse of the Romney’s.
…the more I read about this guy (I prefer anecdotes, btw: they give me a “feel” for a person that all the policy papers, and all the purely political history in the world, simply can’t give), the more I’m really happy that he might be the next president of the United States.
And as I’ve said before: take a bow, all yez who supported him in the primaries.
…with this tiny vignette, he finally arrives at my Palin level (I like them too, and for similar reasons: they seem to be “real” people to me …which matters to me).
OK everyone: try this.
Can’t hurt….
Sorry Neo, I’m like Rush; I live in Realville. Unemployment has been over 8% for 43 months and Obama is still sitting pretty? That is depressing. And Rasmussen Reports is pretty accurate and is using likely voter metrics.
Hopefully Romney will do really well in the debates. But it is discouraging that so many of our fellow citizens don’t have a clue. When the 4th estate has turned into a 5th column, it’s frightening. Thank goodness for bloggers and alternative media but is it too little, too late? Maybe I don’t have enough faith in my fellow citizens but, then they did put him in office once before.
KL: of course it’s depressing. Who ever said it wasn’t? I think Obama should only poll about 25% by now. The fact that he doesn’t is extremely depressing. That’s a separate issue, however, from our reaction to the present polls, and how much credence we give to polls in general, and whether we buy the meme that Romney has already lost, because Obama is leading slightly in some polls right now.
I have a different post planned on the subject of why so many people still support Obama.
Favorite meme (idea in french) of the day:
This is classic “weaponized Keynesianism” – Krugman sounding like Don Adams ‘Get Smart’
runner up from krugmen:
As anyone who was paying attention knows, the period during which Democrats controlled both houses of Congress was marked by unprecedented obstructionism in the Senate.
Neo: looking forward to your post on why so many still support Obama. I think for many, the 8 long years spent hating Bush has really messed with their minds. They want Obama and it doesn’t matter what he does/doesn’t do.
discouragement is uncalled for at this point
why?
do you think that 80 years of communist infiltration and social engineering will be done away with in 4 years? if not, then be discouraged…
Without that, its all false hope.
and the reason you probably dont think so is you dont hang out with young people and know how awful and incompetent they are third generation onwards with no culture or families (even if they do have them, most dont listen).
no one here (but maybe me) is making a FULL assesment… everyone else is looking at the surface stuff they like and then trying to sway the crowd to that surface idea.
but look deep… you CANT win if your socialist enginerring fronts are loved, funded, the only political source (With followers who dont know what they stand for).
heck… the census reports that we have more minoroty babies than the majority, yet you all cant put two and two together that that is the bell of genocide… (the wiki even points out that the white population has declined every year since the 60s)…
less than 20 years, the majority will be the hateful racist minorities who have spent 20-30 years being turned to a hate that would do what?
we are past the 50% mark… and yet, you think we can go back?
HOW… not one thing has changed for the better in 4 years, and we are much worse off, and yet, you think that we can reverse the past 4 and the past 40, and the past 80?
HOW…
cant even get people peeved at the organziations that are running all this.
ie. they WANT IT…
you dont get that… they WANT The organizations more than they want FREEDOM. and they all assume they are owned, so they dont care if they are owned. they even SAID so on tape.
take some time to do an assemsent across the board…
the debt is higher than GDP…
unemployment is double or more than the figure
the dollar is worth 1/10th and they are about to do more printing…
the ONLY people who think that there is hope are the ones who ignore military (like you do neo)… who ignore world events when domestic get hot (like you do neo).. ignore kids and children who like the libs in office are th next set to show up… the genocide…. and there is absolutely no inclusion of the most expensive departments in each state… (ever wonder how much moneyt goes to the FSB? GRU? CIA? NSA? and on and on? but they never influence anything, right?)
no one is making any real assessments as reality has all that…and the assessments dont.
its heads they win, tails we lose
it should be a landslide and we are not sure… the young WANT communism, so in 10 years they will have it as nothing can stop it now..
4 years on, and we have done zero to stop anything…
and thats exactly what i said would happen
because thats what happened in history.
all everyone was doing was guessing the future and waiting to see if their team won.
meanwhile, gun sales, ammo sales, and other things are on the increase… record numbers… signing statements that are key. laws that were never prosecuted are coming online… foreign troops are on US soil… missiles off the coast (note no one before or since has mistaken a contral for a missle, have they? remember that?). the magnetic pule weapon the chinese revealed… the new torpedo, the new tank, the new missile, three new big ships, and on and on.
yet… no oe realizes that to have a war, you have to borrow… we are bankrupt and the enemies are our creditors? who we gonna borrow from to survive?
and who will fight? drafted white middle class women? gay men? fat dumbed down caucasians? how about MS13 members, crips, and bloods?
ny city has 4 days of food… thanks to just in time warehousing and delivery…
hows this… what would happen the day that a bigger conflict started and china refused to send us anything?
think… for one month china stops all exports to the US… iran stops all oil… UAE stops all oil… chavez and that area do the same.
1 month…
what would happen?
hows this… one mag pulse… off the east coast, the west coast, and gulf..
now what would happen? the east seaboard nothing would work… all cars would stop. all food deliveries stop… water stops. 8 million people die in two weeks… (before you s ay military, ask how many vehicles would work)
so ny to Florida and Washington out.
texas, lousiana, nevada, etc… all out too
california, up the coast… all out
now what?
the ONLY thing preventing it is WHAT?
lack of will?
need for more coordination?
waiting for Obama second?
three things and the US is defeated that day
heck… there may be 100 nuclear bombs off each coast, since we no longer can detect them as we have spent our money on EBT cards…
25 nuclear bombs go off in the gulf across a 100 mile line… what happens next?
i will guess that they will wait till it gets a lot worse next year… and it looks real bad…
it would take decades to recover, and they would not recover if the fruitbats are still round…
What I can’t get is how any of the Democrats could have gotten any sort of a “bounce” from that ridiculous convention. Really? Was there ever a less appealing crowd on display? It might have made some people nostalgic for Bill Clinton, but surely one would think they’d have enough sense to see that despite his many, many flaws, Bill Clinton at least had years of executive experience and finely-honed skills of negotiating deals, and even more than that, of triangulation which let him maneuver enough to claim credit for things he actually had little or no part in.
Between the Woodward book and the Kantor article–and the actual experience of the last four years–it should be clear to all that Obama is NO Bill Clinton. And most analysts agreed that Obama’s convention speech was a dud. So who are these folks suddenly interested in sentencing the country to four more years of this joker?
On a related, but different note, I had to get a laugh out of someone’s idea for a new Obama poster (inspired, evidently, by an Iowahawk joke about the “Thelma and Louise Economy”). You can go directly to the image itself by clicking here.
Here’s a bounce that defies gravity:
http://www.zimbio.com/photos/Sarah+Palin/Sarah+Palin+Joins+Rolling+Thunder+Rally+Washington/_I9YZYmGulo
Artfldgr: I didn’t mean that it’s not correct to be depressed, alarmed, etc., about the entire state of affairs in politics today in regard to the left vs. the right, in addition to how little critical thinking seems to be involved in the populace, and how susceptible to propaganda people are.
I was specifically speaking about discouragement being uncalled for in relation to the current small uptick in support for Obama in the polls after the Democratic convention. People who were feeling pretty good right before then are crying and moaning about how all is now lost.
But I also don’t think discouragement is usually a good idea even when called for, because it tends to have the effect of apathy. People who are discouraged tend to not even do those things they could do to improve matters.
My point is that it’s both ludicrous and counterproductive to get woeful at every small change in polls in the direction you don’t like.
I can’t recall the source now but I read somewhere earlier today that the response rate for polls typically runs around 30%. That is about 1 of 3 persons contacted agree to participate.
This year however that rate has fallen to below 10%. If true, what does this indicate? And does it give an advantage to either candidate?
Recent exit polls have tended to favor Democrats. And I’m thinking we’re seeing a similar trend here. That is many conservatives don’t trust either the polls or the media that sponsor them and thus are less likely to participate.
Kurt: a convention is a pep rally. And Clinton was head cheerleader.
kaba: I read that statistic, too. I don’t think anyone knows if it would skew to either candidate. But my guess is that it affects the results in some unknown and so far unmeasurable manner.
NO! I do not like rollercoasters, never have. period.
However, we have not had the debates yet.
Right now, folks are paying attention to finishing vacation, starting school, getting back into their “regular” routine. Once those debates happen, and Romney (and especially Ryan) wipe the floor with their opponents then folks will “see the light.”
Besides, the only poll that really matters is the final one.
@kaba 09.10.2012 5:06 pm
I can’t recall the source now but I read somewhere earlier today that the response rate for polls typically runs around 30%. That is about 1 of 3 persons contacted agree to participate.
This year however that rate has fallen to below 10%. If true, what does this indicate? And does it give an advantage to either candidate?
I’d like to take a stab at this.
I’m thinking it means that a lot of people just want this to be over, and don’t care to share that a) they screwed up last time, and b) they are worried-worried-worried with some anonymous entity at the other end of a phone call (even more so than usual).
Only true partisans see things with political blinkers on. (I don’t care which particular persuasion they are: a truism is a truism lol). Normal people don’t think politically.
They think economically.
My gut tells me normal people are paying attention to an unusal extent, and they do NOT like what they see, and what they’ve seen.
They’re not idiots. They screwed up last time, they know it, they’re not proud about it, they’re pretty sure they know WHY (they were blatantly lied to), and they don’t feel a need to communicate that to pollsters. They don’t trust anyone at this point.
And they know how they’re going to vote.
They want this over.
Which means …this has been over for a long time. Months maybe.
Gallup in late October of 1980 had Carter beating Reagan by a margin of 8%. For a variety of reasons, polls are rarely reliable. I think a significant number of those who voted for BHO in 2008 will not vote for him in November. They are not admitting this to family and friends or pollsters. That does not necessarily mean they will vote for R&R, it may mean they stay home which ends up being a ‘silent’ vote for R&R. It may also mean they will indeed vote for R&R.
BHO may have a 50% personal approval rating but that does not mean he has a 50+% approval of his performance as president. By a wide margin the polls also show the populous believes the country is headed in the wrong direction. Inside the voting booth that does not translate well for Obama.
I refuse to get emotional about the polls. The results of the 2010 election and the fact that Walker won the recall election by 7% were not flukes. Be of good cheer.
Third-hand from the Romney camp:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/316400/horsest-rich-lowry
‘Horses**t’
By Rich Lowry
National Review
September 10, 2012 9:41 A.M.
I asked a top Romney adviser what he makes of reports that the Romney campaign knows it’s losing and that Ohio is slipping out of reach (PPP has a new poll with Obama at 50 in the state):
[BEGIN QUOTE]
It’s horses**t. Nobody in Boston thinks we’re going to lose. We’re in a tight race. We had a 4-5 point bounce after our convention and it evaporated when they had theirs. Now they have a 4-5 bounce. It’s going to evaporate in September. We feel good about the map. We’re up with advertising in Wisconsin and I think North Carolina is going to come off the board. On Ohio, they’ve been spinning for months now that it’s out of reach.
There was a Columbus Dispatch poll last week that had it 45-45.
That’s a more accurate picture of the state of the play there than any of the spin. PPP has these polls that just put chum in the water for the media. Sometimes I think there’s a conscious effort between the media and Chicago to get Republicans depressed. And I hope our friends realize that all these media analysts out there are Democrats WHO WANT US TO LOSE. And the more Washington DC controls our economy, the more important inside-the-beltway publications are and the more money they make. The 202 area code is dominated by people who will make more money if Obama is reelected, so it’s not just an ideological thumb they’re putting on the scale for him, it’s a business interest.
I actually think the other side is in a panic. You look at New Mexico closing up. And they’re not above 50 in any of their target states. Look, we’re raising money, they’re raising money, and it’s tight. This is a dogfight. But the numbers actually point to a romney win barring something unforeseen.
[END QUOTE]
UPDATE: That Dispatch poll actually was released two weeks ago, and a mail-in. Here’s the Real Clear Politics Ohio page *.
* http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
.
Argh. Clicked submit too quick.
Wanted to add:
And in support of my belief …I think that’s the real reason why the tens of millions the DNC and the Obama campaign spent in attack ads the past 2-3 months haven’t moved the polls at all, and why the percentages kept inching up for the Romney campaign after the Republican primaries.
It’s been wasted money.
There are literally no undecideds.
…and (maybe) even the Reagan Democrats are back.
Related to the discussion of Ohio, there’s this article from about three weeks ago. The picture there tells a large part of the story: “working-class” voters (“Reagan Democrats”) lining up for a Romney event. There are lots of voters like those in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
It is possible that the economy is so trashed that Obama has picked up the victims. Just think how many new people are on food stamps. Think about the millions who have dropped out of the labor force. Then there are the people who have been foreclosed on. Throw in the young people who are unemployed and in debt.
Normally such things hurt an incumbent, but this situation is so threatening that big government looks good to many and freedom and opportunity look to be a thin gruel. We may have turned the corner on America on our way to European democratic socialism. Unfortunately, the voters don’t see what is happening in Europe. Even a hard look at California or New York would be instructive.
Buy gold.
Back in the 1980s, Daniel Ortega was up for reelection in where? — Nicaragua, I believe.
He’d actually been persuaded to have a monitored election.
All the talking heads knew Ortega would win. “Knew”. No issue, nothing to discuss. As the election drew nigh, they focussed on how U.S. conservatives would react to the Ortega win. A leftie was going to stand for (re)election, Ortega would win handily, and see, you rightie morons, lefties win elections handily, if they were ever to hold them.
Ortega had busloads of toadies shipped in for his huge rallies. Meanwhile — and this was in the pre-Limbaugh days, when news was much more controlled than now — there were reports from conservative publications like National Review that the Ortega rallies were what Mizz Pelosi would call “astroturf”, and there did seem to be a lot of support for Chamorro (Ortega’s opponent — I hope I got the name right) from the common people, who didn’t have means to get to rallies.
But who knew? I certainly didn’t. I didn’t read National Review, practically the only game in pre-Limbaugh town.
Long story short: Chamorro won handily. The mainstreamers could. not. believe. it.
How different are they today, in spite of flourishing alternative news media? Answer — they have to work harder: cooking polls, burying inconvenient truths, and all that. Commenters on neo’s blog can readily supply examples, and then some. How different are they (the mainstreamers) today? Not all that different.
Romney may or may not defeat Obama in November, but don’t rely on the mainstreamers to cover the election.
Anyone who needs a reason to panic (or to stay panicked) can look at an Electoral College map.
Romney would need OH, MI, FL and NC to squeak his way to 270. Since he crapped on his grassroots at the RNC, I wonder who will be manning the phone banks, doing election-eve lit drops and making sure the unmotivated get to the polls?
M J R,
When they had the Niguaragua election, I was attending UCSD. One of my close friends, a leftist, was upset the commie lost. He was actually pissed at the people there, for not selecting a leader he found reasonable (the commie, Ortega).
foxmarks:
Let me take a wild stab at an answer: the millions upon millions of Republicans and/or conservatives who really really really don’t want Obama to be re-elected.
If I recall correctly, your “crapping on his grassroots at the RNC” reference is to this. I hate to break it to you, but it’s just not a big issue for that many people, either then or now.
Oh. for the record. I am not afraid that Romney will lose or Obama will win. It matters little who wins, because these plans are not if A wins its ok, and if B wins we are in trouble. Its A wins we are ok because we do and did this, and if B wins, we are ok because we do and did this…. you don’t remove/neutralize the cancer, and it don’t matter if you change doctors, they aren’t going to teach you to live with something that is destroying you.
Its only recently people have started to wonder and react, but they have mostly been sleeping for 50 years. enough time to have 2-3 generations. enough for the majority to have no memory, or experience, or even knowledge (thanks to a complete lack of all and any movies that describe what happened in the countries they think they like).
Eventually the people that would remind them of the past and the history wont be here. MOST of them are retiring now and MANY of them are already dead.
People under 20 years of age made up over a quarter of the U.S. population (27.3%), and people age 65 and over made up one-eighth (12.8%) in 2009.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
The total fertility rate in the United States estimated for 2009 is 2.01 children per woman, which is below the replacement fertility rate of approximately 2.1. However, U.S. population growth is among the highest in industrialized countries, since the vast majority of these have below-replacement fertility rates and the U.S. has higher levels of immigration.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Currently, population growth is fastest among minorities as a whole, and according to the Census Bureau’s estimation for 2012, 50.4% of American children under the age of 1 belonged to minority groups
Can anyone do the demographic math here just from those three paragraphs? the country as a whole is below replacement, but its population is growing due to lots of people coming in.
the largest birth rate is among minorities, which means that some OTHER group has to have a birth rate so low, its dragging their above replacement rate down to below replacement.
so if trends continue, in 20 years 50% of the population or more, will be the quarter who are young now, and the quarter who will be young then. most of us talking here will be gone.
so, really, does it matter who wins as we have already lost? those young are going to be really peeved at the scapegoats between now and then, and obamacare with its rationing will kick the rate up a notch, no?
this is a game of numbers…
there is no way to recover, as we dont have families much any more, nor do we even know how to be basically civil. and these young-ins are targeted with teen versions of the key mags and even kids show reflect this social justice stuff.
and the minorities are going to be able to vote all kinds of bad punishments and asymmetric laws (which we already allow), as their numbers will be larger than certain other demographic groups.
on another note..
Psychopathic boldness tied to US presidential success
http://medicalxpress.com/print266513926.html
Theodore Roosevelt ranked highest in fearless dominance, followed by John F. Kennedy, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan, Rutherford Hayes, Zachary Taylor, Bill Clinton, Martin Van Buren, Andrew Jackson and George W. Bush.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
“The way many people think about mental illness is too cut-and-dried,” Lilienfeld says. “Certainly, full-blown psychopathy is maladaptive and undesirable. But what makes the psychopathic personality so interesting is that it’s not defined by a single trait, but a constellation of traits.”
A clinical psychopath encompasses myriad characteristics, such as fearless social dominance, self-centered impulsivity, superficial charm, guiltlessness, callousness, dishonesty and immunity to anxiety. Each of these traits lies along a continuum, and all individuals may exhibit one of more of these traits to some degree.
Prediction, Romney will do to Obama what he did to Newt. During one of the debates Mitt will get Barry’s goat and he’ll lose his cool and look very un-Presidential.
Mitt will “come from behind” to win in an electoral college land slide. Afterwards honest reflections from sage pundits every where will say it was never close.
I like the rollercoaster.
http://youtu.be/w1h_hmdVJAc
We have no idea what is going to happen with Iran and Israel. Or anything else. And what effect it will have.
The cake is not baked.
2016 :Obama’s America is a blockbuster.
We have to keep educating.
I loved roller coaster rides as a kid, but they now give me headaches and make me sick. It’s been over a decade since I’ve tried to go on one. I like stability. Probably why I like Romney and Ryan.
Now is the time to stay focused, and not to give in to anxiety, panic, worst fears. I live in Brookline MA and I know that I know a lot former Obama voters who will sit home in November. They won’t vote Republican but there’s no joy for Obama this time around. Be strong; don’t whine don’t whimper.
(Apologies for the length.)
What do these three observations have in common? They all assume that the polls are accurate and unbiased. Why so? Even the most accurate poll in the 2008 election (Rasmussen) wasn’t on target until right before the election.
There is another facet to these polls and Rich Lowry notes it in the quote by MJR @ 5:47: “. . . it’s not just an ideological thumb they’re putting on the scale for [Obama], it’s a business interest.”
Although Lowry mentions the pundits from area code 202 (the stronger the central govt, the more influential DC pundrity remains and the more money they make) this is also true of polling. Imagine if all the polls showed a runaway election with Romney winning, or a runaway election with Obama in the lead. If the outcome were already decided why would any campaign or news organization pay Gallup, Rasmussen, PPP or any pollster? These organizations make their living when the apparent results seesaw back and forth because you now have a reason to wait for and examine the next poll.
Now I’m not suggesting fraud, although some of that may exist, but does anyone doubt that these pollsters have a vested interest in close but constantly changing polls and if so, like the inherent liberal bias in the MSM, could such an inbred bias actually influence the poll results?
How can one unconsciously (or surreptitiously) influence one’s own poll? Take PA for example. PA is predominently a Republican state except for the Southerastern quadrant around Phila (and to a lesser extent around Pittsburgh). Now the polls themselves show that ~9% of Republicans support Obama (assume that’s accurate for the sake of discussion). If an organization is polling overwhelmingly in the southeast, one is more likely to find Republicans and Independents in Dem territory who support Obama. If one is polling in the interior of the state, one is more likely to find Democrats and Independents who oppose Obama; New York state is similar to this although more overtly Democrat. We never see the geographic distribution of the poll, just the D/R/I distribution.
Pollsters earn their “street cred” by being correct at election time, they earn their income by polling in the months leading up to the election.
Gina@9:41,
“I know that I know a lot former Obama voters who will sit home in November. They won’t vote Republican but there’s no joy for Obama this time around.”
and Obama benefits only if he gets the votes. Romney benefits both by those who vote for Romney and also by those who simply refuse to vote for Obama
AND . . . ya gotta check out this post over at Ace of Spades (Posted @6:06 so scroll down. I just saw it now)”
Flashback, September 14, 2000: “Why Bush Is Toast”
http://ace.mu.nu/
If your under 40 and/or somewhat new to being on the conservative side; well, it is always like this. The left controls the institutions that tell us how these things are going (and I don’t just mean the media)… You have to get used to it and tune it out. re: keep your head down and keep working….
If your over 40; you’ve been through this enough times to know this….
Upside; maybe the country is not as newly far left as we are assuming. Maybe even we are falling for the spin on that… even those of us who don’t buy the election polls and assorted spin…
From the Ace of Spades citation above, here is the end of Ace’s post (emphasis mine:
PS
Booosh won reelection 8 years ago. Something to keep in mind for perspective.
thomass: Bush winning 8 yrs ago only speaks to the power of incumbency, I think.
Everyone needs to stop fretting, stop whining, stop quaking before the polls, stop imagining that 50+% of Americans are fools willing to be fooled again, and stop all your sobbing:
http://tinyurl.com/22jkskb
In Illinois BHO will win Cook County by a slim margin which means Illinois is in play as far fetched as that might seem. Michigan is in play. Perhaps, inside the voting booth, even a state like NJ is in play. Ohio, Florida, WI, NC, and perhaps PA are winnable. Too many of you have little confidence in their fellow citizens. I understand why, but I suggest you are unduly overwrought.
BHO, Pelosi, and Reid have ventured beyond the edges of the map. More people than not realize there may be monsters out there.
I repeat: 2010 and the Walker recall are the weather vane. The wind has changed directions. It may be a squeaker, although I think it will be by a large margin, but BHO is returning to Chicago.
Parker,
I couldn’t agree more. I recently saw a headline that Obama led in NJ by only +7. There is talk of Oregon and NM being in play. In CT, Linda McMahon (R) is slightly leading her opponent (in CT!!!!)and Scott Brown is ahead of Fauxcahontas in MA. I have said repeatedly that IMO Pennsylvania goes Republican this year by ~52% and I think PA brings Ohio (Oiho?) along with it because most of the OH/PA border counties in OH were Dem in 2008, but they abutted Republican Western PA and they are coal country. Obama’s campaign is dead and buried in coal country, that’s why he’s in Toledo—-auto territory in the Detroit sphere of influence.
I agree that WI is an important barometer in this race and I remind everyone of the University of CO model that predicts a solid Romney/Ryan win.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win.
If the Univ of COstudy is correct (as it has been consistently since 1980) we will be able to impute the election results by the time the polls close on the Eastern shore of the Mississippi River. IMO if we can’t do this, it will be a close election and could go either way.
Parker,
I couldn’t agree more. I recently saw a headline that Obama led in NJ by only +7. There is talk of Oregon and NM being in play. In CT, Linda McMahon (R) is slightly leading her opponent (in CT!!!!)and Scott Brown is ahead of Fauxcahontas in MA. I have said repeatedly that IMO Pennsylvania goes Republican this year by ~52% and I think PA brings Ohio (Oiho?) along with it because most of the OH/PA border counties in OH were Dem in 2008, but they abutted Republican Western PA and they are coal country. Obama’s campaign is dead and buried in coal country, that’s why he’s in Toledo—-auto territory in the Detroit sphere of influence.
I agree that WI is an important barometer in this race and I remind everyone of the University of CO model that predicts a solid Romney/Ryan win.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win.
If the Univ of CO study is correct (as it has been consistently since 1980) we will be able to impute the election results by the time the polls close on the Eastern shore of the Mississippi River. IMO if we can’t do this, it will be a close election and could go either way.
“Anyone who needs a reason to panic (or to stay panicked) can look at an Electoral College map.”
I look at the electoral collage map and see 300+ votes for R&R. I know that you seek the purity of an apocalypse now, but I want a pause in the financial madness and look for a gradual change of course.
So although you may in the end be prophetic, I will remain positive until the facts on the ground show otherwise. You, foxmarks, IMO underestimate the resiliency of America.
Parker:
I agree that 2010 and the Walker recall give cause for hope. I’d also add the massive Chick-fil-A turnout, which happened largely under the MSM’s radar, and entirely without their help. I was a participant, and was heartened by it.
I don’t pay much attention to polls, but I don’t have much faith in my fellow citizens. Let me rephrase that. My fellow citizens are fine; it’s the increasing number of parasites I’m worried about. Have they reached a majority? We’re about to find out.
A close election is probably the worst-case scenario. It would very likely turn the Cold Civil War into a hot one. If this is anything like the 2000 election, I will be amazed if it doesn’t turn violent.
“.. that’s why he’s in Toledo–-auto territory in the Detroit sphere of influence.”
Ah, the Detroit sphere of influence! Smells like defeat to me. He may as well campaign exclusively up until the election within New Orleans, the south side of Chicago, and in northern California.
Don’t want to be Debbie Downer but, 2010 and the Walker recall were off-year (as in not presidential) elections and thus Republican turn out was higher than normal.
Ask neighbors/friends that aren’t super political if they’re registered to vote. For example, my neighbor in NoVa is so sure Obama can’t win that he’s probably staying on his sofa come election day. I printed out a voter registration form for him and I hope he’ll mail it back. I need to tell him how crucial Virginia will be – he probably doesn’t know.
KLSmith Says:
“thomass: Bush winning 8 yrs ago only speaks to the power of incumbency, I think.”
In the battle between incumbency and ideology; ideology always wins (I didn’t see any leftists voting for bush any more than any regular posters here are voting for the Oman). So; if we are worried about the left taking root so deeply… its useful to remember 8 years ago…
Dear voter,
You better get your ASS off the chair/couch and vote.
I live in the belly of the beast here in Sacramento, CA and I’ve been here since 1994. I’ve voted in every election even though the state’s LOST.
But you think about what I saw at Chic fil a last month. I saw an unbelievable site.
You know how many people don’t vote because they don’t think a Republican can win here?
It’s the STUPIDEST thing I’ve ever seen. These idiots will get up and vote and you so-called smart people stay seated on your chair.
You are a loser if you act like a loser. Get out and vote no matter what you think – JUST DO IT!!!!
BTW, my girlfriend’s family is hispanic.
Do you know how many of them are conservative and Republican.
MOST!
Except for the non-logica. ABCCBSNBCCNN watchers.
There are good people who own businesses, run organizations, work hard, have families and go to church and they know what is up and what is down.
They know that the Democrat party is the party of a lousy future for their family.
“Mondale Tops Reagan”! July 2324, 1984
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=EzNTAAAAIBAJ&sjid=CIMDAAAAIBAJ&pg=6849%2C2861380
Need I say more? . . .
23 – 24
Also recall that Dukakis had a *17* point led on Bush coming out of the DNC, albeit earlier (mid-late July).
led = lead
And the beat goes on yeah the beat goes on . . .
http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-would-lead-eight-unskewed-data-from-newest-cnn-orc-poll
The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.
This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey’s sample includes 397 registered Republicans and 441 registered Democrats. But the survey included a total of 822 registered voters, leaving only 37 independent voters at most. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters.
Among the Democrats survey, 97 percent favored Obama while three percent support Romney. The Republicans surveys chose Romney by a 96 percent to two percent margin. Those margins display a high degree of party loyalty in each party for its candidate, which is plausible in a campaign like this one where both sides are focusing heavily on boosting turnout among their base. Independents, who are massively under-sampled in this survey, support Romney by a 54 percent to 40 percent margin.
The sample for the CNN/ORC poll includes 50.4 percent Democrats and 45.4 percent Republicans and appears to have only 4.2 percent independents. This means independents are under-sampled 25 percent while Democrats are over-sampled 12.1 percent. Both of those are larger variations in sampling than seen in most polls that are likewise skewed by such sampling variations.
I’m a diehard, UT Austin Longhorn graduate but you Texas Aggies will know what I’m doing when I say my hand is in my left pocket, holding my left testicle until the November election is over.
Humans everywhere are only humans. They would be in stubborn denial of reality if this helps them to protect their favorite mythology which became an integral part of their personalities and the basis of their self-esteem, especially now, when the only thing everybody is taught to value in school is self-esteem. That is why mind is so difficult thing to change, as you, Neo, know so well. It requires a real watershed even to begin acknowledge reality to break the spell. In Russia for all well-educated and thinking people the big lie of Communism was transparent decades before it began to crumble down, but these people still were a small minority of population until hours-long lines for bread and other staple foods formed at Moscow streets. Economic pain in affluent country like USA is not enough to awake from dreams about benevolent all-powerful state, it must became on the brink of real hunger to be efficient myth-buster.
Romney campaign.
De-motivating the Obama voter.
The Obama voter seeks a companion in his struggles. He views himself as unable to gain an acceptable amount of security and prosperity because powerful forces of privilege and greed prevent it. Obama answers that basic fear with a position that is both fear and faith. Such men need to believe in the goodness of Obama because his goodness reflects well on them. All that has happened to discourage economic growth, in their eyes, is just opposition writ large to what has happened to them. They are relieved of responsibility to that nagging question, why you?
Therefore, the first question is “Is such a man’s vote even worth striving for?” The answer is supplied by a true charity which can only be genuine if it stems from true humility. This is part of the reason Obama has a profound anger and antipathy to Romney. That anger may be used in manipulating Obama.
The answer is a resounding yes and the appeal to such men is not shame but conversion. This is the Romney strategy and it will not result in mass conversion, but enough conversions, to make the difference. Further, those conversions will be quiet because these men live in communities where dissent against victimhood is not tolerated. To claim that one’s position is not so much the function of external forces but individual choices is very disquieting to the herd.
The Romney campaign will quietly demonstrate that herd leavers will be welcome and that their new home will not be entirely unfamiliar. The safeties, previously used as subsidies and which destroyed esteem, will still be there but only function as safeties. The “powers” once so dreaded, become not powers but friends.
It is a forward looking strategy for the future. It is a strategy to provide a community for people who have no idea how to approach life without community.
Meanwhile, for thos of us in the know, suffering from outrage and anxiety lest the republic we hold dear becomes Cesearized, this guy says it will and is uniquely positioned to do what most cannot: shame Obama. To do that authentically is basically like taking your opponent’s queen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMjcsC3svB4&feature=player_embedded#!
Texexec, what the hell are you talking about?
I don’t pay attention to polls as much as I do signs. I am willing to bet good money that Romney takes Michigan. I live in a region that has traditionally had a mix of conservatives, Republicans, and Reagan Democrats. But I grew up in a diehard Democrat area. My hometown and the surrounding area isn’t just leaning Romney; they’re fleeing Obama.
For one thing, the demographics have shifted. Children of union auto workers and union electricians are non-union workers. Sometimes working in the same building as union workers but really employees of contract houses. The auto bailout has shown them that the Dems will protect union benefits but leave them hanging.
For another, our “evil Republican” governor and Republicans in Lansing have contributed to a surge of economic growth in Michigan – the first in years. Putting our former governor on stage at the DNC was an error, because there was nothing like the stark contrast between the human windmill (Granholm) and her even-keeled successor.
“Texexec, what the hell are you talking about?”
It’s what Texas Aggies do when an extra point is about to be tried in a football game…for good luck.
(Guess I’m showing my age…again. Maybe that was a tradition back when Texas A&M was an all male school. Wouldn’t work too well nowadays for lots of Texas Aggies. 🙂 )
Curtis wrote:
“The Romney campaign will quietly demonstrate that herd leavers will be welcome and that their new home will not be entirely unfamiliar.”
I add, IMO, this is a transitional strategy, and such a transitional strategy is precisely what is called for at this time. This fiscal hole was not dug exclusively during Obama’s tenure (although Obama made it exponentially worse), it was dug one layer at a time by both parties over decades. Those die-hard conservatives for whom Romney is not good enough seem to think that some uber-conservative could just wave a magic wand and make decades of fiscal and regulatory errors disappear overnight. We all know it just doesn’t work that way.
Romney may prove to be perfectly positioned for this time in history. If elected (I think he will be) and if he does well, the icing on the cake is that a second Romney term would eliminate the spectre of yet another Clinton presidency (Iknow, I know, I’m just a starry-eyed idealist).
MissJean,
” I grew up in a diehard Democrat area. My hometown and the surrounding area isn’t just leaning Romney; they’re fleeing Obama.”
Yet another “tell.” If one pays attention to what is going on around them they find that there are many clues to the upcoming hidden in plain sight. Each, individually, is meaningless, but when one hears similar stories from across the nation it signals a trend. And again I offer that these trends are simply not showing up int the polls beause the pollsters aren’t polling for them.
I submit there will only be three types of voters this November:
and I suspect that there are enough of the first two categories to overwhelm the third.
Exercise:
In a given neighborhood, compare the number of fading Obama 2008 bumper stickers to the number of Obama 2012 bumper stickers.
Calculate the difference of the latter minus the former (you may have to remember negative numbers if the 2008s outnumber the 2012s).
Extra credit — calculate the ratio of the latter to the former.
People understate their support for a candidate if its expression will mark them as socially unappealing.
For over four years opposition to Obama has been pervasively treated as racist. And none of the cool kids are voting for Romney.
If the polls say it’s close it isn’t.
Many polls have undersampled Independents and/or Republicans and oversampled Democrats.
My main take away is that Independents are going for Romney.
It is a given that Dem turnout will be worse then in 2008.
I’m not certain of the outcome, but I think Mitt will take it.
Now, the question after that is, can he handle the debt crisis? The reality is we need significant government cost cutting, and not in the DoD. Will Mitt, the GOP, and the American people follow through with this, all the while Democrats try to stop it and the MSM prints stories on the horrors of cost cutting?
Rod W,
“People understate their support for a candidate if its expression will mark them as socially unappealing.”
That would be the Bradley Effect.
T writes: “That would be the Bradley Effect.”
While I know that it is usually referred to as either the Bradley Effect or in some cases the Wilder Effect, I’m wondering about an even more relevant instance, namely the case of Dinkins vs. Giuliani in New York City in 1993. My impression of that was that going into that election, it was seen as being too close to call. Does anyone who lived closer to New York City at that time remember anything about what the polls were showing prior to the election? Was Dinkins still shown as having a lead?
I think that’s a fascinating example to consider just because in retrospect it is so obvious that the voters got it right. Within a year or two of Giuliani’s election, New York City had a very different feeling about it, and many of the city’s problems were being addressed as they hadn’t been under Dinkins.
It goes by different names in different places. In Israel I think it’s named for Ariel Sharon, and in Canada Preston Manning always polled 4% worse than he ran. There’s a local French name for it too but I don’t remember what it is.
American examples always seem to relate to the race of the candidate, but it happens all over.
Expect Democrats to double down on the racism accusation: it isn’t so much that a particular voter is a racist if he votes for Romney, it’s that America will be seen throughout the world as racist if it does not elect Obama, and any patriot will vote accordingly.
RodW,
Well, my response to the world is ” Barack Obama works for me. He’s done a deplorable job. I consider myself a patriot and in November I’m voting to fire him and release him from my employ.”
I could care less what the international response is.
Yes. I was attributing a strategy to Democrats, not saying it would work well.
Plus which, it’ll work less well if it’s pointed out.