“Almost everything that has unfolded in Syria over the last 16 months was predictable.”
At first I wanted to laugh at yet another instance of hindsight (“If it was so predictable, why didn’t anybody predict it?”), but, if we broaden that “last 16 months” a bit, there’s a good point here.
Most of the Middle Eastern states are, like the African states, decolonial creations–states struggling to form cohesion among multiple nations whose only commonality is the lines, very often neat straight lines, drawn by a Lord Sandwich or General Sacrebleu. Israel, Iran and Turkey are exceptions in the ME. Syria is not an exception. Neither are Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan (former Transjordan). Egypt is a special case of an Arab land-grouping with enough cohesion (not strong enough to include the Copts, though).
In the sense that multinational debacles like Yugoslavia, Rwanda and Darfur were predictable by anyone lacking politically correct scales over their eyes, the current situation in Syria was predictable also. The “multicultural” depredations going on in Western Europe were of the same predictability. The only thing not predictable is the degree of the disaster that awaits any nation-state where multiple nations are under the same political roof. But a disaster there will be, and you can bank on it. That’s the reason why I’m an advocate of ethnic cleansing–it’s the best method of preventing genocide.
Syria, like Iraq, and like Yugoslavia before its breakup, can’t be spared civil war except under the hand of tyrannical repression. I say this not because I’d like to see dictators propped, but because I’d like to see multinational fantasies discredited as a political idea. The civil war in Syria will end, not when Assad falls, but when another tyrant rises to power, because that’s the only way a multinational state can hold. In addition, this new tyrant will likely install Islamic rule, both because of being an Islamic theocrat and because he would prop up Islam as a unifying identity for the new Syria, in a Constantinian sort of way.
It’s all predictable. The Middle East is a decolonial, therefore now multinational, mess. It would be so even if the Jewish State never arose–again, look at sub-Saharan Africa to see how. The bloody lesson of post-1919 Europe and the failure of Woodrow Wilson’s ideas is being learned the hard way once more: That if you want to maintain regional and national peace, then drawing the borders among national lines–driving out people of other nations from your borders if need be, as was done for the Sudeten Germans in 1945–is the only way to go. Multinationalism (a Marxist anti-national ruse) and imperialism (which Islam is) both generate strife and bloodshed by trampling this principle underfoot.
President Bashar al-Assad’s forces have launched massive counter assaults in both cities. They appear to have beaten rebels back from neighbourhoods in the capital and are turning towards Aleppo, a commercial hub in the north.
Opposition activists said thousands of troops had withdrawn with their tanks and armoured vehicles from the strategic Jabal al-Zawiya highlands in Idlib province near the Turkish border and were headed towards Aleppo.
The 16-month-old uprising has entered a new and far more violent phase in the past 10 days since rebels poured into Damascus in large numbers.
Assad’s international protector Russia added its voice on Tuesday to those of Western countries warning him not to use chemical weapons. Western diplomats said Russia may have pressed Syria to make Monday’s statement after the United States and Israel openly discussed their worries about chemical weapons.
Not likely… It was prudent… given the next article
A Russian naval flotilla of warships destined for the Syrian port of Tartus has entered the Mediterranean, Russia’s defence ministry said Tuesday.
Led by the Admiral Chabanenko anti-submarine destroyer, the three landing craft left their home port of Severomorsk in the Arctic Circle earlier this month. They are due to be joined in the Mediterranean by the Russian patrol ship Yaroslav Mudry as well as an assistance vessel.
the article you link to only mentions russians twice, and there is an interesting link to the right that is the third mention.
Contrary to the article, I would have no opposition to Assad running a rump Alawite state in the coastal mountains- provided that means that Assad’s ties with Iran and Hezbollah are cut.
Artfldgr, I am a little dense. For all the years I have read your posts, I never thought that your blog name was a shortened form of Artful Dodger, until some commenter addressed you as Dodger. For such denseness, I should be left twisting in the wind, eating olives.
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“Almost everything that has unfolded in Syria over the last 16 months was predictable.”
At first I wanted to laugh at yet another instance of hindsight (“If it was so predictable, why didn’t anybody predict it?”), but, if we broaden that “last 16 months” a bit, there’s a good point here.
Most of the Middle Eastern states are, like the African states, decolonial creations–states struggling to form cohesion among multiple nations whose only commonality is the lines, very often neat straight lines, drawn by a Lord Sandwich or General Sacrebleu. Israel, Iran and Turkey are exceptions in the ME. Syria is not an exception. Neither are Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan (former Transjordan). Egypt is a special case of an Arab land-grouping with enough cohesion (not strong enough to include the Copts, though).
In the sense that multinational debacles like Yugoslavia, Rwanda and Darfur were predictable by anyone lacking politically correct scales over their eyes, the current situation in Syria was predictable also. The “multicultural” depredations going on in Western Europe were of the same predictability. The only thing not predictable is the degree of the disaster that awaits any nation-state where multiple nations are under the same political roof. But a disaster there will be, and you can bank on it. That’s the reason why I’m an advocate of ethnic cleansing–it’s the best method of preventing genocide.
Syria, like Iraq, and like Yugoslavia before its breakup, can’t be spared civil war except under the hand of tyrannical repression. I say this not because I’d like to see dictators propped, but because I’d like to see multinational fantasies discredited as a political idea. The civil war in Syria will end, not when Assad falls, but when another tyrant rises to power, because that’s the only way a multinational state can hold. In addition, this new tyrant will likely install Islamic rule, both because of being an Islamic theocrat and because he would prop up Islam as a unifying identity for the new Syria, in a Constantinian sort of way.
It’s all predictable. The Middle East is a decolonial, therefore now multinational, mess. It would be so even if the Jewish State never arose–again, look at sub-Saharan Africa to see how. The bloody lesson of post-1919 Europe and the failure of Woodrow Wilson’s ideas is being learned the hard way once more: That if you want to maintain regional and national peace, then drawing the borders among national lines–driving out people of other nations from your borders if need be, as was done for the Sudeten Germans in 1945–is the only way to go. Multinationalism (a Marxist anti-national ruse) and imperialism (which Islam is) both generate strife and bloodshed by trampling this principle underfoot.
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today is the 25th, their article is dated 30 for print publication… regardless, its just speaking in big flourishes that dont tell you anything much.
Syria launches massive counter assaults in Damascus, Aleppo
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/07/25/syria-launches-massive-counter-assaults-in-damascus-aleppo/
The 16-month-old uprising has entered a new and far more violent phase in the past 10 days since rebels poured into Damascus in large numbers.
Not likely… It was prudent… given the next article
Russian flotilla headed for Syria enters Mediterranean
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Jul-24/181827-russian-flotilla-headed-for-syria-enters-mediterranean.ashx#axzz21aUtM16U
the article you link to only mentions russians twice, and there is an interesting link to the right that is the third mention.
Obama Fiddles . . .
While Russia arms Assad.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/obama-fiddles_647325.html
The earliest time a general can push or attack with supplies limited (and not as a last ditch play) is when resupply is close.
[take the next headline with a grain of salt]
Russian warship ADMIRAL CHABANENKO shot down Turkish Jet near Syria?
http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/107329/Russian_warship_ADMIRAL_CHABANENKO_shot_down_Turkish_Jet_near_Syria/
while the video shows you nothing as to what the heading claims, it is a nice video of the ship arriving in Syria and its testing weapons…
though technically these ships were discussed earlier, as early as the 10th…
Though i doubt that they are picking up supplies and believe more that they are dropping them off.
which would explain the escalation after the talks on scaling back in steps.
Western Fleets May Head To Syria To Evacuate Civilians – Or For Something Else?
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/366339/20120724/western-navies-syria.htm
Contrary to the article, I would have no opposition to Assad running a rump Alawite state in the coastal mountains- provided that means that Assad’s ties with Iran and Hezbollah are cut.
Artfldgr, I am a little dense. For all the years I have read your posts, I never thought that your blog name was a shortened form of Artful Dodger, until some commenter addressed you as Dodger. For such denseness, I should be left twisting in the wind, eating olives.