Looking at the French elections
I don’t pretend to be an expert on internal French politics, but here’s a little summary of what winner Hollande stands for:
He’s a Keynesian (although the article doesn’t mention that word) who favors stimulus as the answer to France’s problems.
He wants to tax the top tier at 75%.
He proposes that some illegal immigrants would be given residency, on a “case-by-case basis.”
It should be fascinating to watch.
Even conservatives in France are a little bit socialist compared to conservatives here. That’s what happens with a welfare state; it’s very hard to turn it back when people get accustomed to the perks. As Michael Barone writes:
It is obvious that voting for one’s living is a great deal easier than working for it. It is easier to blame someone else who is wealthier for a reduction in the standard of living than to look in the mirror and ask hard questions about the nature and effect an expansionist government has on the quality of life in a society in general.
The driver of this process is at its most basic level envy…Countries that choose this path see that, rather than all the boats rising on the incoming tide of massive government expansion in the name of goodness and light, the boats actually start to wallow and the wealth of the society as a whole begins to erode significantly.
Rather than being lifted up through greater productivity and economic growth, the society becomes mired in finger pointing where the many, through their politicians, blame the few.
But although I agree with this analysis, there’s a lot more than that going on in the French election. A fair amount of the vote was backlash against Sarkozy, who has become disliked personally (and has always been seen as an outsider, an important factor in insular France), as well as the desire to try something different when the present administration isn’t seen as having been successful in fixing France’s problems. Even then, the vote for Hollande over Sarkozy was hardly overwhelming—the final tally was actually fairly close.
So whatever the trend is in France, it isn’t a strong one. Of course, that doesn’t matter except in terms of weighing the attitude of the French public, because the winners now get to set the policy.
Hollande sees his victory as a vote against austerity, which I think is correct. Austerity; who wants it? It’s like some bitter medicine a patient is prescribed: it better work, and fast, or a lot of patients will stop taking it. And it better not be too bitter, either, or the patient will spit it out the first time it’s tasted.
What’s more, austerity is not enough. A growing economy isn’t just a matter of tweaking one variable; cuts have to be balanced with something that stimulates growth, even if it isn’t an actual stimulus package. Sometimes it’s just a perception that things are going to get better, which changes attitudes and behavior and becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. And sometimes the problems are more systemic than that.
The left will now get its chance to try to fix the crumbling economic situation in Europe, and in a few years the electorate might turn on them—again. But there’s little doubt that the politics of envy are in control right now in France:
At home, Hollande has pledged to tax the very rich at 75 percent of their income, an idea that proved wildly popular among the majority of people who don’t make nearly that much. But the measure would only bring in a relatively small amount to the budget, and tax lawyers say France’s taxes have always been high and unpredictable and this may not be as much of a shock as it sounds…
[Ghylaine Lambrecht, 60, said] “I’m so happy…In the last few years the rich have been getting richer. Now long live France, an open democratic France.”
“It’s magic!” said Violaine Chenais, 19. “I think Francois Hollande is not perfect, but it’s clear France thinks its time to give the left a chance. This means real hope for France. We’re going to celebrate with drink and hopefully some dancing.”
Magic—hope, and change.
[ADDENDUM: Arthur Herman says, “Europe, R.I.P..”]
Iowahawk: “If white people are so smart, then how do you explain Europe? “
The description of the French as insular surely no longer applies. If it means anything to be French it means being diametrically opposed to the idea of nationalism generally and France specifically. Here is French (? actually Norwegian socialist traveler) Green candidate Eva Joly in France’s Presidential election addressing Marine Le Pen (nationalist party candidate):
““We are at home, we the French men and women, and wogs come from four corners of the world to make France. We the mixed-breeds and the immigrants who work in construction sites, we breaking our backs erecting buildings, we are at home. We are at home, we the Bretons, the Corsicans, the Southerners [Provence], the Dagos and the Spics, we the kikes, the Negroes, the North African towelheads, and we the menopausal Norwegians. We are the freedom to love, the equality before the law, the fraternity. We are at home.”
Judging by what has transpired over the last generation or two I should say France is no more insular than it is French.
Socialism is belief in the fantasy that we can all live high on the hog at somebody else’s expense. Eventually you run out of other people’s money.
Magic–hope, and change.
And drinking. Don’t forget the drinking.
(tho the serious drinking should be left up to the professionals)
George Pal: what I meant is that France is still very insular in terms of who is allowed to take the reins of power there. From what I know of France, it remains a rather closed society in that way. Sarkozy was the first outsider to gain a real foothold.
Ah, neo, let me unpack something for you: “Austerity” just means “reduced government programs”. It just is smaller government and less free-riders. It is not some sort of general impoverishment.
Put back the money in producers pockets and everything and everyone will be fine.
This is yet another bit of language that we have allowed to Left to corrupt.
hattip: I know what austerity means.
In this post, I’m referring to people’s reaction to the prospect, not to my personal opinion. And no, austerity is sometimes not enough to jump-start an economy, particularly when unemployment is high and tax revenue goes down, and people are not wanting to spend money or to hire.
I think this election was very much a matter of throw out the bums. We travel to France every 2-3 years and have close friends in Brittany, Poitou Charente, and Auvergne. We stay in their homes and eat (and drink) at their tables. We’ve know some of these people for 20+ years. They are a diverse lot, much like Americans are a diverse lot. Some are conservative, even by American standards, and some are very much socialists. However, it is my impression that French culture remains important to everyone in France, except the people who come from former colonies. I like the French I have met even though they tend to trop parler. 😉
I hear France’s first step on this socialist road to recovery is to put all their Jews on trains and ship them to Germany. Europeans love trains.
Hey it worked from July 1940 to August 1944, when France had true National Socialism and before those dirty Anglo-Saxons came along with their accursed “Capitalism”.
The description of the French as insular surely no longer applies. If it means anything to be French it means being diametrically opposed to the idea of nationalism generally and France specifically.
You’re kidding, right?
it’s clear France thinks its time to give the left a chance. This means real hope for France.
Give the left a chance? WTF? What have they been doing throughout the post-war era?
We’re going to celebrate with drink and hopefully some dancing.”
And some whistling as they pass the graveyard.
Truly, no people are more skilled at self-delusion than the French, although we’re coming up fast behind them.
Western civilization’s direction is becoming remarkably similar to the results you’d get from allowing all 4 year olds to decide if they need vaccination shots.
Well said, SteveH.
Austerity here means government borrowing at levels such that it is conceivable that the government is able to service the debt over the medium term. It is an illusion that they have a choice about this. If France borrows more money, the rate will very soon go up to the level where it is unable to borrow or roll-over debt, like Greece or Spain. The Socialist French voter is either in denial about this, or is hoping Germany or the IMF will lend the money at below market rates, or perhaps the government will confiscate it from the rich, but none of these things will actually happen.
Nonetheless, I think this is a good outcome. The Euro is fatally flawed, and European leaders are in massive denial. Hollande will cause its unravelling to occur sooner rather than later which is better for everyone. It will be painful and interesting to observe.
And please . . . the French are indeed insular. I do love them, we are all enriched by them, it is not the worst thing in the world to be insular.
Happy hour in France until the few tidbits are savaged by the mobs.
It reminds of the comment I heard from a bar owner who had installed a free taco bar and then recanted saying “damn bums don’t don’t anything but eat my free food.”
Arthur Herman hasn’t figured in Rory McIlroy for Europe who stands 1 to 4 against our golf boys. Those five might just bring it all back, huh, Well, that’s about right, isn’t it? Iif anyone enjoyed the Wells Fargo Golf Tournament this weekend, I guess there’s some hope? There’s something congruent, too, about Rickie Fowler being completely self taught and a descendant of the Japanese and Navajo among others. If that ain’t American, what is? And a winner, did I mention that.
Do disagree with Herman’s last comment that Europe was the “the original home of liberty and freedom.”
I mean I DON’T AGREE with Herman’s last comment. I figure you have to give Israel at least honorable mention long before Europe’s time.
vanderleun quotes
Iowahawk: “If white people are so smart, then how do you explain Europe? “
ROTFL
France, and much of Europe, is caught in an economy and with politics that can’t work. I do believe Sarkozy was doing about as good for them as could be done. Oh, never mind, they will find out shortly why choosing more wine with cirrhosis of the liver is not a good thing. Eat, drink, and be carried. Only, nations don’t really get to die. They just sink into oblivion, to be taken by those who are strong enough or who will use the land. They have been here before, often. To bad they don’t remember.
The slogan being shouted by the unwashed, unassimilated masses: Africa was yours. Now France is ours!
Some where in Hades Madame DeFarge is celebrating.
France, and much of Europe, is caught in an economy and with politics that can’t work
But they should work – socialist theory tells us so! We just didn’t have the right people in charge, but this time …
Whenever I hear this nonsense, I always am reminded that psychologists judge the intelligence of animals by how many repetitions it takes them to learn something.
Ahhhhhhh…France. Home of the Saint-Avold American Cemetery. All we asked,’was enough ground to bury our dead.’ (Thank you, Collin P.)
An old joke: A rich Frenchman had a butler who was a Communist. Every week the butler would go to the Communist meetings. But one day the rich man noticed that the butler had not gone to the meetings for quite awhile. When he asked about this, the butler replied, “Well, the Communists promise that, come the Revolution, all Frenchmen will have ten thousand francs”. The rich man, says, “Well, good! Good!”. The butler then blurts out, “But Monsieur, I have twenty thousand francs!”.