A rare confluence: Jonathan Chait and I…
…agree about fat guy Chris Christie, and those who criticize him for being endowed with excess adipose.
In Chait’s article he refers the reader to this book, The Obesity Myth. I haven’t read it, but I’m familiar with the genre. Most of the studies I’ve read about obesity have convinced me that we know a lot less than we think we know about it, that being fat is not necessarily as bad for one’s health as is commonly supposed, that losing weight is really hard for the majority of fat people (and not because they’re lazy or lack discipline, either), and that weight loss does not necessarily confer the desired health benefits.
What’s more, as a 49-year-old man (he would be 50 in 2012), even if Christie runs a risk of dying that is many times the average for his age, his absolute risk would still be very low. Plus, a slightly increased statistical risk is only important in terms of large numbers of people. It has virtually no predictive value for the health of a single individual. When evaluating candidates, we can only pay attention to their actual health.
I well remember that in 2000, when Cheney was elected VP, I thought for sure he’d never survive four years let alone eight, and certainly not if the years were especially stressful. And yet I was completely wrong about that. And I was not evaluating him on actuarial risk, but his own terrible health history which gave him a pretty poor prognosis. But he defied the prognosis.
Churchill, as many have pointed out, had a number of supposed risk factors but lived to be 90, and was PM for the last time at the age of 80. I think this tut-tutting at the fat is one of the vestiges of Puritanism in our society, which has always had that tendency. Sir Winston would not approve:
[ADDENDUM: It’s not just Chait—Ezra Klein and I agree on the topic, too. Will wonders never cease? And I’m even going to quote Klein approvingly:
Ken Thorpe, a professor at the Rollins School of Publish Health at Emory University, was similarly unimpressed. “Excess weight probably shaves between zero years and a year-and-a-half from life expectancy,” he says. Compare that to smoking, which rips 13 to 14 years off a person’s life expectancy. “The problem with obesity is morbidity, not mortality. You have a higher rate of diabetes, bad cholesterol, back pain, that kind of thing. But if you’re taking your blood sugar medications and the right statins and so on, you can control a lot of that.”
So without more information, there’s no real reason to think that Christie isn’t up to the job of being president, or that he’s at a particularly high risk of keeling over should he take office.
Which reminds me: does Obama still smoke? If so, is he not then at higher risk than Christie (depending on whether Professor Thorpe’s figures are correct; some research indicates the risks from smoking and obesity are about equal)? But even if he is still a smoker, my arguments hold up for Obama as well as for Christie: his absolute risk would remain small, as long as his general health appears good, which it does.
Now it’s time to have a doughnut. I wish.]
[ADDENDUM II: Looking back, I see I wrote something similar about McCain’s candidacy, when he was criticized for being too old to run.]
“Vestiges of Puritanism”? Puritanism is absolutely running rampant in modern America, and almost all of it is coming from the Left.
Traditional Puritanism mostly had to do with things like sex, divorce, and alcohol. Modern Puritanism ignores those things, but seeks to control and regulate literally every other aspect of our lives.
rickl: okay, then—vestiges of traditional Puritanism.
neo, you seem to feel strongly about Christie. I am guessing you might have felt the same about Paul Tsongas. I read an opinion piece suggesting Christie might decide to run because he is unlikely to get reelected in NJ. I find it hard to believe that NJ voters would turn him out. Surely they must know how lucky they are to have him.
I read something a while back about differences in the gut bacteria between the obese and the non-obese. This would not affect current longevity studies, but it might shut up some of the criticism leveled by the phoney nutrition experts. Hey, my E coli did it–not me. At which point, a lab will open to sequence your gut bacteria and tell you which homeopathic pills you need to keep you in a size 2.
This is actually relevant to my earlier remark about Puritanism. It’s Bill Whittle’s latest Afterburner video. It is one of his best efforts, and is absolutely magnificent. I promised him in the comments that I would do my best to spread it around. It is a must-see for every American.
(You can click to skip the ad.)
All this Christie weight talk reminds me of one of the reasons I’m against Obamacare/socialized medicine – not only does it make one’s personal health (or even just one’s appearance of health) the state’s business, it becomes everyone’s business, since we’re all collectively paying for it. While it’s important to be sure we elect a healthy president, it’s this compulsion to use his weight (and health) to make judgments on his character that is disturbing.
But while we’re on the subject of health, we never received more than a 2 page summary from Obama’s doctor during the 2008 campaign, and I can’t recall hearing about any doctor’s visits or health updates since he was elected. It seems he’s lost some weight and may still be smoking. Maybe it’s time we learned more about our current president’s health?
Obama liked to tell the military to quit smoking, but look at his dumb self now. The Left is defined by one word, evil, hiding behind the incompetence of hypocrisy.
Steve: I like what I’ve seen so far of Christie, but what I feel really strongly about is this focus on his weight and the idea that we can predict what will happen to him healthwise because of his corpulence. We can’t.
That said, I compared Christie to Tsongas last February when I wrote, “I have seen no politician since Paul Tsongas who has the same desirable qualities of straight but articulate talk and common sense coupled with sincerity and humor.”
Of course, in this context the comparison is sadly ironic, because Tsongas’s health was more compromised than we knew (and perhaps even than he knew) when he ran for president in 1992. If he’d won, he would have become ill and died towards the end of his term.
Libby: but did you click on the link I offered for the words “does Obama still smoke”? It gives an answer to your question, sort of—and a doctor’s report back in March of 2010.
I don’t have a problem with C.C.’s weight. I am more concerned with some of his less than conservative stands on issues like the second amendment, illegal immigration etc. He won’t be my primAry choice (NM primary is ia waste of time anyway) but if he is the candidate I’ll vote for him on a lesser of two weevils basis.
I concur w/ Wm Lawrence…
Christie’s problem is not that he’s fat, but that he’s a fathead RINO, from pandering to the muzzies (http://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2011/01/23/new-jersey-governor-christies-dirty-ties-to-hamas-linked-islamic-supremacists/) to AGW (http://rjjrdq.com/2011/05/28/chris-christie-a-global-warming-believer/)… I’m starting to wonder if there is still hope for the Republican Party and the nation itself…
http://tammybruce.com/2011/09/run-chris-christie-run.html
Unless it is Palin or Cain, we’re not going to get someone who challenges the establishment per se, and yet, that is happening, indirectly through the presence of the tea party.
If you build it, they will come.
I’m with rickl. It is a big meestake to link Puritanism, however vestigial, to the hyper-regulatory State that is so very close to absolute victory.
Christie isn’t only shaped like a bull, and rams like a bull. He also seems to have the constitution of a bull.
Or should I say RINO.
And I agree with the comparison of Puritanism. But a Liberal Puritan who has themselves as a god are a lot scarier.
Having said that, I think all the focus on Christie’s weight is just slashing away at ANYTHING they can. If the beanpole we have now was built like Christie in 08, you’d be hearing pleasantly plump, big boned, and praises of Moocheles down home cook’n and calling anyone questioning his fat, a racist.
I’d like Christie a lot more if he were a FAT conservative instead of a RINO which is what he is.
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