Big doings in Libya
It would appear that the Gaddafi forces are collapsing, although it’s impossible to know for sure. It also appears that, as so often is this case in these situations, the turning point may have come when Gaddafi couldn’t motivate his own defenders to fight for him any more:
Euphoric Libyan rebels raced into the capital Tripoli on Sunday and moved close to center with little resistance as Moammar Gadhafi’s defenses collapsed and his regime appeared to be crumbling fast.
Associated Press reporters with the rebels said they moved easily from the western outskirts into the regime stronghold in a dramatic turning of the tides in the 6-month-old Libyan civil war. A rebel leader said the unit in charge of protecting Gadhafi and Tripoli had surrendered and joined the revolt, allowing the opposition force to move in freely.
I wish I felt more hopeful about what will replace the abominable Gaddafi.
[Update here.]
[UPDATE II: The prognosis:
[Gaddafi’s] decades of iron-fisted rule have produced a country, analysts say, that is devoid of credible institutions and any semblance of a civil society ”” a potential source of trouble in the months and years ahead…
A senior American military officer who has been following the developments closely, and who has been in contact with African and Arab military leaders in recent days, expressed caution on Sunday about the prospects for Libya even if the Qaddafi government should fall. Even if Colonel Qaddafi is deposed in some way, the senior officer said, there was still no clear plan for a political succession or for maintaining security in the country.
“The leaders I’ve talked to do not have a clear understanding how this will all play out,” said the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the issue publicly…
American officials say they are preparing contingency plans if and when Colonel Qaddafi’s government falls to help prevent the vast Libyan government stockpiles of weapons, particularly portable antiaircraft missiles, from being stolen and dispersed.
Untold numbers of the missiles, including SA-7s, have already been looted from government arsenals, and American officials fear they could circulate widely, including heat-seeking antiaircraft missiles that could be used against civilian airliners. “What I worry about most is the proliferation of these weapons,” the senior military officer said, noting that the United States had already been quietly meeting with leaders of Libya’s neighbors in Africa’s Sahel region to stem the flow of the missiles.
The officer said that small teams of American military and other government weapons experts could be sent into Libya after the fall of the Qaddafi government to help Libyan rebel and other international forces secure the weapons. ]
It will be interesting to follow this since we were essentially just the “muscle” for the Europeans who only wanted this to protect one of their primary sources of oil. Is the US going use their involvement to insist on a role in the aftermath or will this be primarily a European attempt at “nation” building which they claim to find so distasteful and “dangerous”? All indications are that there is no strong political leadership among the rebels ready to step in so someone from the west will have to help with the transition… or sadly… not…
Interesting times…
It’s been a rough year for Arab dictators. Assad may have had his mind concentrated.
Hope is the little death.
Good chance it is not over. Gadaffi has 14,000+ well trained and loyal troops unaccounted for.
As much as we would all like to see democracy flourish in the Middle East, for some reason I don’t see it happening. Maybe it’s their background. Maybe it’s Islam. Maybe it’s their willingness to allow the jihadist to subvert their lives and kill their children. Maybe it’s a combination of all of those.
After the revolution in this country there were many who wanted a king. There was a lot who never wanted to kick the British out to begin with. (I think most of those are democrats now. 😉 ) But in this country we were not saddled with and controlled by monotheistic religion like they are in the Middle East.
I wish the best for them but I just don’t have confidence they have the leadership to break the chains of Islam that control their lives. I don’t think they have the leadership that is not looking to step in and be the next grand leader to keep them in chains.
Hopefully for the people of the Middle East and the rest of the world I am wrong.
This sounds like the doings of Commando Solo:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_EC-130
Like Patton’s advance in Germany, we’re phoning ahead to get the opfor to surrender.
From Neo’s update link:
(Boldface mine.)
Neo writes, I wish I felt more hopeful about what will replace the abominable Gaddafi.
Me too.
Personally, I am rooting for the crazy devil we know to prevail against the crazy devils we haven’t a clue about. Egypt & Libya ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood is not a good outcome.
Pondering the track record of our community organiser in chief, i’d say there’s a 98% chance this will prove to be a huge blunder we regret.