November 2010 prognostications
All signs are that the majority in the House will change hands in November, although it’s best to advise against premature chicken-counting; Republicans are known for their ability to disappoint. And then, of course, there’s always the question of what they’ll be able and willing to do even if they win, and whether the Senate will come along for the ride.
But articles such as this one from Reid Wilson, who tries to reassure the Democratic troops that the Republicans haven’t really got much of a chance of victory in November of 2010, are the equivalent of whistling past the graveyard. He quotes unnamed “senior Democratic strategists” as saying they’re “not only likely to keep the House, but they believe the GOP won’t come close to gaining the 39 seats they need to take over.”
Hmmm, I wonder what Wilson and those strategists are smoking (as someone writes in the comments there, it must be hopium).
Wilson’s article, and others like it, may be an attempt at keeping Democratic voters motivated. After all, if they are so disheartened they don’t even go to the polls, then there’s no chance of stopping the Republicans. In private, it’s more likely that those Democratic strategists are whistling a different tune, however:
Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding that the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day.
In conversations with more than two dozen party insiders, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the state of play, Democrats in and out of Washington say they are increasingly alarmed about the economic and polling data they have seen in recent weeks.
They no longer believe the jobs and housing markets will recover ”” or that anything resembling the White House’s promise of a “recovery summer” is under way…
I wonder why they ever believed the markets would recover in time. It’s been rather clear for quite a while that they were unlikely to. After all, it’s not as though this administration or this Congress has been doing anything different that would be expected to change things.
For members of Congress,it’s the old “fool vs. knave” question: are they really that economically ignorant, or are they out to sabotage the economy in a Cloward-Piven-like maneuver? And if the latter, why would they think re-election would be their reward? Come to think of it, though, the true believers such as Nancy Pelosi are probably safe in their ultra-blue districts, even if the country goes down the tubes.
My opinion is that it is the latter.
I don’t think they really care if they lose the House, or the Senate. They’d be nice to keep, but…
1. They will all get cushy never-have-to-really-work-again appointments if they lose. In fact, they don’t even need appointments. The corruption is so vast. combined with pension and retirement bennies for Congressmen, that not one of them would ever have to work a day in their lives more if they did not want to.
2. They believe that they have done their job. The hard part is over. They’ve “broken” America. They have already set the wheels in motion to make a socialist nanny state inevitable. They think they have reached the point of no return. In that scenario, losing might even be a relief. They can sit back and watch Republicans go down with the ship. They will come back aboard when everything is over to manage to wreckage.
The people hate America. They have hated us for a generation. They think they have won. A House or Senate seat is redundant at this point.
The question is whether they are right.
The Answer is the Tea Party and anyone Sarah Palin backs, or that sort, or it is nothing. I’m fighting on their side and I’ll leave minor disagreements aside. It’s a life or death for America situation we’re in.
Then the Dems have nothing to worry about.
The Republicans will pick up enough Senate seats that they will be able to stop any legislation they wish. Four or five seats will do that.
I’m resigned to the fact that this is a twenty or thirty year ordeal we’ve entered. The repubs still don’t really get it. The dems aren’t yet fully discredited.
One thing i recall from my parents and grandparents describing the depression was their insistance that they were ironically some good old days. Which makes me pause and think, these are our gold old days and i’m going to make it my mission to figure out how to enjoy them.
Not a bad idea SteveH.
I like watching the prediction markets like Intrade. The people there are expressing, by putting money on the line, their best objective, unbiased educated guess about the outcome of events. The participants aren’t trying to persude others about the outcomes (as Reid Wilson may be doing). The only objective is to win the bet.
The most recent trade of the contract that the Republicans will take control of the House changed hands at an all time high today of 76.3. That’s the equivalent of a 76.3% probability the Republicans win the House. We don’t know how many people have participated in this market, but we do know that over 10,300 contracts have traded since the contract’s inception with Obama’s inauguration. So the last trade at 76.3 represents the collective wisdom of the people behind those 10,300+ contracts. So, who do you trust? Reid Wilson, one biased reporter with no skin in the game, or the completely unbiased, collective wisdom of people risking their own money on over 10,000 contracts?
Here’s the chart of the contract:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=639646&z=1282857305093#
While 76% seems like a huge lead, I agree with you that you can never underestimate the ability of the Republican’s to shoot themselves in the foot.
The SEIU and AFL-CIO have hundreds of millions to buy ads. They also have ACORN under other names to engage in voter fraud.
Scott,
Thx for the reminder of Intrade. I’d forgotten how accurate they were in calling Obamacare. Next to Rasmussen, they might be the best predictor of what’s what.
I’m not breaking out the champagne just yet. (Although I will have some on hand on Election Night, just in case.)
I’m expecting massive vote fraud in many places around the country. ACORN now has access to billions of dollars in tax money. There may also be incidents of intimidation or even outright violence at the polls by the likes of the New Black Panthers and SEIU. They know they can get away with it now.
Finally, even if the Republicans do win big, are they actually going to get serious about defunding the Left and rolling back the Obamunist agenda? I’m not holding my breath for either. Far too many Republican politicians just want a seat at the table of power, and their fair share of pork.
I also watch Intrade and am getting more and more encouraged by the day. If I’m not mistaken, Intrade called the 2004 presidential election’s state by state electoral vote almost 100% accurately.
I also watch the markets…used to make my living with technical analysis..was Forbes’ web site best short sell advisor one year. The markets are looking VERY bearish, technically. I think we could be looking at a VERY bad market in October…the month of many crashes.
Market fundamentals look bad too.
I doubt the Democrats are gonna get much help from the markets between now and November.
Today, we had a slightly positive jobless claims report and the stock market closed down.
Let’s also not forget the possibility/ likelihood of an October surprise similar to RatherGate in 2004, or the financial meltdown in 2008. I wouldn’t be surprised if that had had Soros’s grimy pawprints on it. Just as a local financial type could easily trigger a run on a bank with a few tantalizing tidbits over drinks at the country club, I expect Soros could have stampeded a spooked financial industry with a couple of phone calls, tops.
No idea what the October surprise could be this time, but I’d be surprised if there weren’t an effort to generate one.
NEO said :”I wonder why they ever believed the markets would recover in time. It’s been rather clear for quite a while that they were unlikely to. ‘
This reminds me of conversations with a couple of moderate types. One has a speciality loan company (which is going slow) and the other is VP of a financial firm. Trying to point out to them what the ever increasing national debt could potentially do to us is like talking to a brick wall. I am increasingly convinced many of the “money” types- while they may be decent at making money for themselves, actually do not see the big picture-they think it can just go on on on….. No wonder these national bubbles keep hapening!
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/jeff-poor/2010/08/26/cramer-mass-panic-markets-tomorrow-after-shocker-gdp-released
My fear is that, even if the House and Senate change hands, Obama’s veto power will stall any real reform coming from Congress. Meanwhile, his czars will perform like the puppets they are to do Obama’s will. In 2012, Obama can point to the lack of meaningful legislation and and Congressional control could be up in the air again.
If the House and possibly the Senate go to the Republicans, I hope that there will be more of a game plan put forth on how to deal with Obama.
It’s frustrating that more conservatives don’t get behind Paul Ryan’s Road Map for America. And it needs to be delivered by a voice as clear as New Jersey’s Chris Christie. I’ve never seen anyone better talk directly to his people.
While I’m hoping for a historic Republican gain, I’m concerned about the aftermath. One of the few things Democrats are good at – practice making perfect, and all that – is blaming others for their own failures. Opposition naturally becomes them, particularly as they’re unfit to govern. Carping from the sidelines, and talking about how wonderful things would be if they had their way – without actually having to deliver – is more their speed.
My fear is that having grownups back in charge in Congress will so blunt the impact of this nitwit’s policies that the economy will recover enough that the he came claim credit, and people will forget that he was leading us to perdition until his hand was stayed.
Conversely, if gridlock ensues, Obama will claim that his wonderful economic policies would have resulted in free ponies for everyone, but for those nasty Republicans who kept asking how we were going to pay for them, and that as a direct consequence no one has a pony.
The Dems can’t deliver the goods, as they proven beyond a shadow of a doubt in the last two years, but the ambiguity of a party split between executive and legislative branches will provide them enough wiggle room largely to slip the punch.
Sometimes I think I credit these wizards with more prescience than they–or anyone else–can actually have. For example, I once (not so long ago–maybe it was only last week?) thought that they knew something about the November elections that allowed them to act with arrogant impunity by going against the clear will of the American people, passing HCR and all the rest of their awful program–to wit: That there were going to be no elections. There would instead be some kind of national emergency that would allow suspension of the elections. Then I thought (not so long ago–maybe it was only yesterday?) that they knew something about how the financial markets were going to behave that would allow them to make hay while yet a glint of sunshine came through storm clouds–but there is no glint of sunshine. Then I thought (this morning?) that they don’t care about elections, because they’ve imposed their program now, and the rest is only going to be decoration. These guys are the ones with faith in experts designing plans, after all.
But there are going to be elections, and whatever the markets do, they’ll be as stricken as everyone else, and nothing is, any longer, decoration. Instead, what they are sowing is chaos, and they cannot control it any more than anyone else can, experts and planners be damned. They are going to be sucked into it along with the rest of us, and they will have the cold comfort of knowing that it’s their handiwork. Just as we have the cold comfort of knowing that we voted for it.
There is lots of non-productive pessimism here in the comments.
‘We may not win (of course). Even if we do, then 2012, big concerns, I’m worried, yada yada.’
This is a fight.
Let’s blast the bastards and worry about what might happen after we blast the bastards actually after we balst the bastards.
If you want the best chance for a good outcome, vote for anything that even remotely looks like a Palin, Tea Party type person.
Or–well, maybe it’s that I credit myself with more prescience than I–or anyone else–can possibly have. Ha! Busted!
It’s all so confusing when we seem to be looking over the edge, into the abyss.
Mike Mc.,
You’re entirely correct.
Well, I’m ready for a fight. I am my daddy’s girl, and my mother’s too, after all.
Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night, and all the rest. The race is not always to the swift, but sometimes . . . .
Mike, I agree. I’m not proposing any other course of action but trying to crush the Reds, but merely pointing out that we cannot deliver a knockout punch in November. It will be a war of attrition.
Third round of a twelve-round fight, friends. Good if we win, but we’ll still be behind. And I don’t necessarily mean Republicans when I say “we.” At least one of those rounds will be mostly against them.
Though I will say again, one “sends a message” only in the primaries. Votes in November have actual consequences.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2010-campaign-primaries-polls-key-races-fail-predict/story?id=11479893
… “hopium”, that’s a good one! If “religion is the opium of the people”, then “hopium” must be the religion of the fool…
Lots of good thoughts here tonight.
We are in a very longterm struggle. “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step”….perhaps the only time Mao was right. We must hew to that, endure that, and gradually we may come to rectify our multitudinous sins of omission, erroneous tolerance, caving-in.
A very longterm struggle, not to be won in my lifetime.
Damn the Steele Republicans. the wooses, the cowards.
Its not surprising if most of congress – and maybe Obama too – are fools in the regards you give.
Democrats have been repeating for 80 years that FDR saved us from the great depression. That’s not true of course, but they used it to win elections.
But then a funny thing happened. Democrats repeated it so many times that they started to believe it themselves. Now they really believe that large amounts of government spending will stimulate the economy. So they really expect everything to get better.
Since they believe a phony baloney theory, they are truly surprised.
Do they even care? They have been acting like they don’t. Like somebody who went to Vegas with every dime and booked a high hotel room.
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/08/25/video-chris-christie-rips-feds-after-clerical-error-costs-new-jersey-400-million-in-school-funding/
Besides loving Neo’s brain – I love Chris Christie’s brain 🙂
And no I’m not gay
“”I wonder why they ever believed the markets would recover in time.””
They believed it for the same reason a teenager believes his parents will bail him out of jail and pay the five thousand dollar credit card bill he and his friends ran up. And then life would go on as though nothing ever happened.
WOW! I always appreciate neo’s insight, but this string of comments has got to be the best yet. It’s nice to see so many that see through the lies and distortions. Maybe there’s REAL hope (not hopium) for us yet.
Congrats to all for clear thinking.
Now if we can just get the MSM to see it….
“How is the world ruled, and how do wars start? Diplomats tell lies to journalists, and they believe what they read.”
— Karl Kraus, “Aphorisms and More Aphorisms”
SteveH: but the difference is that teenager is often correct in assuming that.
Paragraph of the Week from Charles Krauthammer in the Wapo.
The Democrats are going to get beaten badly in November. Not just because the economy is ailing. And not just because Obama over-read his mandate in governing too far left. But because a comeuppance is due the arrogant elites whose undisguised contempt for the great unwashed prevents them from conceding a modicum of serious thought to those who dare oppose them.