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Climategate: it’s worse than you thought — 41 Comments

  1. Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate explains Poor Harry:

    HARRY_read_me.txt. This is a 4 year-long work log of Ian (Harry) Harris who was working to upgrade the documentation, metadata and databases associated with the legacy CRU TS 2.1 product, which is not the same as the HadCRUT data (see Mitchell and Jones, 2003 for details). The CSU TS 3.0 is available now (via ClimateExplorer for instance), and so presumably the database problems got fixed

    As usual we have to trust Gavin Schmidt & Co., though we aren’t given much reason to.

    Was Harry really just a four-year employee fixing up legacy “product”? Why was the legacy product in such terrible shape? What does that suggest about work standards at CRU? Were the databases really fixed in the new product?

    Those questions we must leave to our betters. Ours is only to fork over 10% and more of our income for the rest of our lives and be grateful that the Gavin et al. have provided the solution to fix the climate we broke.

  2. Gavin Schmidt seems to be a piece of work. Brit Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics, ensconced at Columbia.

    Not above childishness with respect to his critics, if this blog is to be believed.

    http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/02/gavin-schmidt-is-his-own-mystery-woman.html

    Here he does not criticize Mann’s hockey stick in a lucid 2006 article that brings together CRU, Briffa, Tree Rings, Mann et al.

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg18925431.400-climate-the-great-hockey-stick-debate.html

    Seems to have penchant for giving interviews to Mother Jones. Is that a tell?

  3. The most amazing thing is watching true believers try to spin this thing. And each new revelation makes it harder and harder for them to do it.

    Hacker… no insider, whistleblower… FOIA… just a few emails, so what… probably fake, no not fake… threats to publications… tree ring data… admissions, well it still doesn’t mean anything, you must want to pollute the earth… code?… oh god the data has been dumped… hahahahaah.

    It surfaces in main stream media… Stephanopolous says “… it complicates President Obama’s trip to “Copenhagen to deal with climate change.”
    Complicates? Complicates? It should torpedo it. It and Cap and Tax.

  4. AGW is bunk but the folks who hold the power to create opinion, the MSM, will defend it to the end. Like many of their other memes it is an article of faith. It is one of the key components of their view of existence, a secular substitute for the concept of original sin.

    It goes like this:

    Mankind is a devilish stain on Mother Gaia. Man must pay for Man’s transgressions, for Man’s arrogant existence. Cap and Trade is just another sin tax, and Obamacare a way to buy an indulgence from the Church of the Evilness of Mankind. They think they have no religion; they think they don’t believe in religion yet they insist on a rigid adherence to a dogma that they accept on faith as fully as a fundamentalist preacher accepts received Word.

    To them Obama is their equivalent of a Pope. Obama’s abasement of America, his bowing and scraping is like a devout and humble Pope donning a hair shirt and having an acolyte lash him on the back with a scourge. They experience ecstasy when he humbles himself. I suspect he has a similar view of himself — a god-like being who will set the earth right.

    Who is the devil? Why, it’s Bush — and he has his lesser dark angels, Cheney, Rove and Palin, at his side – who must be vigilantly guarded against. The Neocons are the demons who possess unwitting folks(like us) and make them want to defy and blaspheme Obama. They must be defeated at ANY cost.

  5. Worse than *I* thought? Not really; follow the money…Albert Gore, Jr. has now amassed somewhere in the neighborhood of $100,000,000. That’s quite the scam he’s got going on, and that without even trying to live up to his alleged ideals… 😯

  6. But bear in mind — only in tiny little remote outposts on the internet, is this even a news event. Let alone a scandal which should cause a complete and total halt to all talk of Cap and Trade and other measures to “save the planet.”

    This should be front page, headline news. Not buried on page 19 with plenty of “spin.’

    Come on. Let’s not kid ourselves no matter how good it may make us feel. The fix is in.

    We can grind and gnash our teeth all we want. But we’re getting a trillion dollar federal takeover of our healtcare industry – no matter how unpopular it is; and we’re getting massive “green” regulations and massive “green” tax increases – no matter how unpopular, and expensive and crippling to our economy. Whether they end up calling it “cap and trade,” or not.

    Look – the latest dodge being picked up and run with is China’s (faux) “promises” to be on board with global warming initiatives. They’re just gaming us, the way Iran has repeatedly gamed us on their nuclear weapons denials; and they have zero intentions of actually DOING anything. But the state propaganda ministry is not going to tell you that.

    The only chance for the survival of this country lies in the faint hope that, a) there are enough “blue dog” democrats willing to thwart this disaster of a congress, senate and WH, who are led by far leftists; and b) somewhere, somehow, a national media outlet OTHER than Fox, discovers the concept of journalistic ethics.

    People who compare Obama to Carter and predict the same outcome, are, IMHO, completely and foolishly misguided; to the point of being delusional.

    People forget the media was NOT in the tank for Carter. They didn’t like Reagan of course. But they did not intentionally ignore and hide negative news (and spin the stuff that DID come out) for Carter, like they do for Obama.

    We have double digit unemployment in this country; a war in the ME going absolutely nowhere; a trillion dollar deficit turned into an 8 trillion dollar deficit; the dollar crashing; and a congress poised to pass more trillion dollar debacles in spite of those schemes having UNDER 50% public support.
    And yet Chairman Zero’s approval ratings, somehow, someway, remain close to 50%.

    ONE single, barely significant uptick in the economy will be TRUMPETED as a huge “step towards recovery,” over and over and over again – until it becomes the Truth — in just enough peoples’ minds…..toss in a little Acorn asssistance with a few key ballot boxes…..and we’re in for a second term.

  7. Judging by my recent sortie versus Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate, we will have to pry the data and the methodology out of AGW advocates’ cold dead fingers.

    Gavin recommended that I write the government and I will, but to have his team investigated, to force their data and methodology to be placed in the public domain, and to establish an independent review of AGW claims.

  8. without this, the reasonable people would have kept discussing, and would never have reached a conclusion and committed to their choice. that is, they will claim to have been looking at it, or reviewing it. but given that the movement and such is 20 years old and about to sign US sovereignity away, their discussions are endless, their actions are null, and once its a fait accompli, they go on to some other discussion.

    the reason why the left will win is that the left is committed to the end, they have made a clear choice. the reasonable dont want to be on the wrong end of the decision and have to pay for their choices. so they endlessly vacilate till its easy to know which is the reasonable answer.

    so before this all, the reasonable answer is not to side against the state and believe what propaganda says is outliers. and that would be the best postition to hedge all bets. for nothing, against nothing, but endlessly in limbo of no actual decision.

    oh… and even all this would not have worked if it was just a few letters and not hundreds of megs!

    do note that there are more than hundreds of megs in the Mitrokhen archive, and other sources too… but its not reasonable to believe THOSE exposures of valid information as those were successfully countered (which was easier).

    in this way, the reasonable pretend to be on top of everything, but in truth, are not part of anything. they cant form a conclusion, as a lot of the info they are deciding to work with is filtered and so by definition always incomplete (even more so than if they did look at everything).

    the point is that from day one, one could tell it was a farce. when communist leaders become the leaders of green movements, one should have been able to conclude that the most polluting, most poisioning, the most toxic people proposing utopian green would be a lie.

    the 10 most polluted places on the planet…

    Linfen, China, where residents say they literally choke on coal dust in the evenings, exemplifies many Chinese cities;

    Haina, Dominican Republic, has severe lead contamination because of lead battery recycling, a problem common throughout poorer countries

    Ranipet, India, where leather tanning wastes contaminate groundwater with hexavalent chromium, made famous by Erin Brockovich, resulting in water that apparently stings like an insect bite

    Mailuu-Suu, Kyrgyzstan, home to nearly 2 million cubic meters of radioactive mining waste that threatens the entire Ferghana valley, one of the most fertile and densely populated areas in Central Asia that also experiences high rates of seismic activity;

    La Oroya, Peru, where the metal processing plant, owned by the Missouri-based Doe Run Corporation, leads to toxic emissions of lead;

    Dzerzinsk, Russia, one of the country’s principal chemical weapons manufacturing sites until the end of the Cold War

    In Dzerzhinsk, Russia, waste from 190 chemicals has turned the groundwater into a dangerous toxic sludge. Life expectancy there is 42 for men and 47 for women. Credit: Blacksmith Institute

    i.livescience.com/images/061018_dzerzhinsk_sludge_02.jpg

    Norilsk, Russia, which houses the world’s largest heavy metals smelting complex;

    Rudnaya Pristan, Russia, where lead contamination resulted in child blood lead levels eight to 20 times maximum allowable U.S. levels;

    Chernobyl, Ukraine, infamous site of a nuclear meltdown 20 years ago; and

    Kabwe, Zambia, where child blood levels of lead are five to 10 times the allowable EPA maximum

    and the US is the problem?

    5 sites are from soviets…
    1 site is from chinese communists…
    1 from india when they were under whose sphere of influence (guess)
    1 from africa under whose sphere of influence (guess)

    “The threat of environmental crisis will be the ‘international disaster key’ that will unlock the New World Order.” — Mikhail Gorbachev, quoted in “A Special Report: The Wildlands Project Unleashes Its War On Mankind”, by Marilyn Brannan, Associate Editor, Monetary & Economic Review, 1996, p. 5

    yeah… gorbachev leading this from before gore..

    however the reasonable people do not want to conclude that the soviets are still playing the same games of the cold war after we stoped playing!!!

    however, preponderance of information is never enough for the reasonable posers, who are popular precisely because they will not commit anyone to anything.

    “Gentlemen, comrades, do not be concerned about all you hear about Glasnost and Perestroika and democracy in the coming years. They are primarily for outward consumption. There will be no significant internal changes in the Soviet Union, other than for cosmetic purposes. Our purpose is to disarm the Americans and let them fall asleep.” — Mikhail Gorbachev

    its not like they are hiding it… they are just not leaving letters of guilt laying around and letting them be found…

    the germans provided their people with such scientific meddling… theirs played on race…

    the soviets provided their people with such scientific medling… theirs played on authoritarian personalities, and so making the condition genetic and also needing their disposal (by some means)

    and how is our society doing? providing the science through socialist fakery like kinsey, margarete meade, and gslen funded studies (who i poointed out started in weimar germany too)…

    ALL the information was there so that one could pull a weed up when it was young and not at all painful to do. That the soviets turned the inability of the people to rise up for their cause, into the inability of the people to rise up to prevent them, was a natural end to a pragmatic amoral line of thought.

    we have argued way too long… hansen was able to work on this game from when he was pushing global cooling in the 60s… 50 years wasnt enough to convince the reasonable… they are the biggest facilitators… as the more the culture can make more of them, the less the bad are opposed.

    its really not complicated…

    [edited for length by neo-neocon]

  9. Here’s my most recent post to RealClimate which was rejected in its entirety. I was responding to someone in comment 980 who was criticizing my request that AGW data and methodology be made available.

    [980] “To the other person demanding release of all data immediately — an institution cannot allow itself to be arm-twisted by cyberterrorism. All data will sooner or later appear in public domain either as raw data or as graphs in journal publications in normal course of time. Or you may follow established procedures to access data held back by researchers, explaining why it will help you. If you are genuine researcher in the field, I am positive that fellow scientists will be more than glad to share their data with you.”

    OTOH, I and many other taxpayers, cannot allow ourselves to be arm-twisted into paying substantial global warming taxes by unethical scientists who have refused legitimate FOI requests, have threatened to destroy data and emails and apparently done so, and have attempted to rig the peer-review process.

    All I ask is that the data and methodology be made available for others to inspect and replicate, not 100% perfectly, not immediately, but a good faith attempt, as opposed to the bunker mentality shown so vividly in the CRU Hack.

    However, from reading this thread, I am clear that this will not be done and will instead be actively resisted by AGW advocates.

  10. Art, that was the worst I’ve seen.

    You might’ve had some good points in there. I’ll never know.

  11. Amazing story

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/29/ipcc-climate-change-leaked-emails

    excerpt:
    Pachauri said he doubted that trust in the IPCC would be damaged by the affair. “People who are aware of how the IPCC functions and are appreciative of the credibility that the IPCC has attained will probably not be swayed by an incident of this kind,” he said.

    He pointed out that five days after the emails were made public, Barack Obama announced a major commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions ahead of the UN climate summit in Copenhagen.

  12. The great Michael Barone writes on the topic

    http://townhall.com/columnists/MichaelBarone/2009/11/30/global_warming_consensus_garbage_in,_garbage_out

    excerpt:
    Global warming alarmist George Monbiot of the Guardian concedes that the e-mails “could scarcely be more damaging,” adding, “I’m dismayed and deeply shaken by them.” He has called for the resignation of the CRU director. All of which brings to mind the old computer geek’s phrase: garbage in, garbage out. The Copenhagen climate summit was convened to get the leaders of nations to commit to sharp reductions in carbon dioxide emissions — and thus sharp reductions in almost all energy usage, at huge economic cost — in order to prevent disasters that supposedly were predicted with absolute certainty by a scientific consensus.

  13. Neo, sorry off topic.

    Terribly important research I missed on the 18,000 number…

    http://townhall.com/columnists/MichaelMedved/2009/11/18/personal_choices,_not_the_system,_make_for_bad_health_outcomes

    excerpt:
    The difference between Kronick’s study and previous analysis involves the San Diego professors adjustments based on various demographic and health factors, such as smoking status and body mass index. In other words, he concluded that the uninsured suffered a higher death rate because they were vastly more likely to smoke heavily, to eat irresponsibly, to avoid exercise, and to suffer from serious obesity. Comparing a group of insured individuals (who were much more likely to take precautions regarding their own health) with a group of uninsured people (who were far less health-conscious in their behavior) was truly a comparison between apples and oranges (or, perhaps more appropriately, between apples and Big Macs). His examination of decades of federal statistics shows that once you compare truly comparable individuals like assessing death rates among insured smokers vs. uninsured smokers the likelihood of dying evens out. This, in turn, would mean IOMs estimate of 18,000 deaths would drop essentially to zero.

    excerpt2:
    Naturally, progressives will dismiss Dr. Kronick’s argument and evidence as meaningless propaganda from the extreme right, but they run into problems with the professors impeccable credentials. He acknowledged that his study didn’t provide the conclusions he wanted, as a left-leaning former Senior Health Care Policy Advisor to President Clinton, and one of the chief designers of the reform proposals known as Hillary Care. His articles have also appeared in the New England Journal of Medicine and the Journal of the American Medical Association.

  14. “Physics guy” tried to post the following comment yesterday, but it got trapped in the spam filter and I can’t liberate it. So I’m posting it now for him:

    Yes, climategate is everything I expected it to be. However, the real question is what happens now? that depends on the “people”.

    Case 1) My 83 year old mother knows all about Climategate, but she listens to talk radio.

    Case 2) Just got back from visiting friends in northern New Hampshire and they had heard nothing. Get their news from papers, alphabet networks, and NPR.

    I believe most of the populace falls into Case 2. Without an outcry from the people, the AGW juggernaut will steam right along. It will take at least a year for the science to sort itself out, but by then the politicians will have what they want.

  15. Huxley,

    I’m of two minds about your efforts at RealClimate. On the one hand, I doubt that anything anyone says to these wizards will make the slightest bit of difference to them. They are hunkering down and will never address questions or critiques honestly, because the only honest response available to them is a confession, and of course that’s something they aren’t gong to make. On the other hand, though, there’s the obvious fact that not challenging them on their own turf amounts to allowing them to operate as infections without antibodies–so it’s got to be done. Given that, I’m glad that you and people of your caliber are picking up this task. I tried it for a while and gave it up as a bad job.

    Artfldgr, I hate saying this, but you really do need to work on being concise. I also think you need to give up a bit of the “I told you so” point-of-view. A lot of us here are pretty well aware of what looks to be the situation in this country. Whether we’ve been late or early to this realization makes precious little difference at this point.

  16. I tried it for a while and gave it up as a bad job.

    betsybounds: It’s a bad job all right!

    I don’t intend to make a practice of it either. It’s too aggravating to bother for long when you’re writing into a kangaroo court where your posts are routinely edited and censored and you are treated with snark and derision even by the host. It was much like my abusive sojourn in Dr. Brin’s blog.

    I find it shocking to see scientists like Dr. Brin and Dr. Schmidt resorting to basic intellectual thuggery in the name of their politics.

    Science has always had its political aspects — anything that involves people and money always does — but I think in the past 10-20 years science has been swallowed, in spite of its builtin safeguards, by leftist “ends justify the means” academia.

  17. “They are hunkering down and will never address questions or critiques honestly, because the only honest response available to them is a confession, and of course that’s something they aren’t gong to make.”

    And this sort of sttitude is exactly the antithesis of science. Some of the best fun in science is having someone else come along and find you did something wrong, and then both are off on the chase to find the data/model that matches nature better. These “scientists” have absolutely no joy, or apparent desire, in finding out what nature is all about.

  18. Neo,

    You made the point I was trying to make with my long-winded post at 8:34 a.m. If it doesn’t make the news, it never happened. Most of the populace not only falls into Case 2 – they are happy to be there.

  19. Without an outcry from the people, the AGW juggernaut will steam right along.

    physicsguy: That sounds about right. It’s up to us to keep it in the news and to question AGW advocates on their good faith for all their future claims.

    The good news is that cap-and-trade won’t pass in America, and the likely news that whatever happens in Copenhagen will be just more happy talk like Kyoto 12 years ago.

  20. I find the second-order responses troubling. Those the MSM identifies as “real” climate scientists are bemoaning the loss of their credibility, rather than expressing outrage that someone in the field is fudging the data, jeopardizing their accuracy.

    As to NPR and the networks, this highlights their increasingly contradictory position. The AGW defenders are circling the wagans and saying “this changes nothing. All these accusations are just silly.” These are exactly the type of people NPR has been trusting for decades, folks who scoff at questions rather than answer them.

    And those who scoff at the questions are sometimes right. In every field there are questions that are ridiculous that the experts get tired of asking. The networks don’t want to be seen as giving air time to guys who claim to have built a perpetual-motion machine in their garage, or have uncovered the conspiracy that doctors really have lots of cancer cures they’re hiding. Because the scoffers will really twist the knife if they catch you doing treating those things seriously. Sort of like those folks who defend terrorists, clutching small injustices forever to hold reasonable people hostage.

    The alphabet networks only take that risk when they are darn sure of not being humiliated. To be humiliated by blogs, cable networks, online magazines – not a big problem. To be humiliated by those within your own tribe, from whence you get status, employment, and potential mates – much too high a risk.

  21. Pingback:Amused Cynic » Blog Archive » IPCC chairman says not to worry about the emails showing that “Global Warming” is a scam….

  22. I agree that we have our work cut out for us to keep this on the radar and to make increasing numbers of people aware of it, because we won’t be getting any help from the MSM. But it’s early days yet and we have a not-insignificant number of resources at our command. For one thing, hardly anyone trusts the MSM anymore, and there are times when I’m pretty sure they mostly talk only to each-other. The story isn’t in NYT headlines, but it isn’t buried, either. Rush Limbaugh, for example, has been talking of little else for days, and the truth is that if Rush is talking about something, a good many people are going to be hearing about it.

    I’m also reminded of stories the MSM tried to bury and finally had to pick up, if only from having been embarassed into it. The Swift Boat Vets for Truth, the Bush TANG fraud at CBS (the fraud part, anyway), and more recently the ACORN videos–the MSM has tried to ignore, down-play, or distort these stories into oblivion, but as time passed these goals became unreachable. So I’m hopeful. Keep talking to people you know, e-mail links to story highlights, don’t let up.

    And we have the internet, sites including, and like, Neo. It’s going to be a fight, but we must endeavor to persevere! (HT: Lone Wattie in The Outlaw Josey Wales).

  23. pguy,

    This is the case with every issue.

    I’ll expand to 3 scenarios:
    1) Listen to talk radio and see things on the Internet
    2) Listen to abccbsnbccnnnpr and it isn’t in your world view
    3) common sense

    That last one is why twice as many people know they are conservative than liberal.

    The second one is why liberals sometimes win on the battlefront of a topic and an election.

    The first one gains ground each day for the last two decades.

    ∅bama giving Fox News even more publicity is why the gain is growing even more.

  24. Exposing people to an alternative point of view is our job.

    Do it with civility. Be persistent. Be trustworthy in your own life. Be short and simple and pithy.

    I’ve converted an African American male to conservatism. It can be done.

  25. betsybounds: I echo you.
    For just a moment, I’ll add my voice to the “I told you so” chorus. I posted here last summer/fall that Obama=Chavez. Rush said same today.

  26. Oblio: That web page has a tremendous flowchart illustrating that even if one accepts the mainstream understanding of global warming, one doesn’t have to buy into massive government action to reduce CO2.

    Instead humanity could choose to adapt to the warming as necessary, and spend money according to where it does the most good instead of some huge world effort to cut back CO2 in which success is uncertain.

    According to AGW advocates it’s possible at some point that no matter what we do to reduce CO2 it will be too late, which is why we must act now. There is even a group, One Hundred Months.org, which says that we now have only 84 months left before this tipping point in the climate.

    However, anyone at all honest on the subject even from the AGW side, knows that such precision is a fantasy when it comes to climate. If AGW is true, it’s possible we are already past that tipping point, in which case we would be far better off adapting to global warming rather than futilely trying to stave it off with draconian carbon reduction measures.

    Anyway it’s well worth looking at the flowchart at Oblio’s link: http://www.devilskitchen.me.uk/2009/11/crudgate-why-this-cant-be-swept-under.html

  27. This topic is right up the neo-neocon alley: an exploration of how faulty thinking ends up in the zeitgeist and how it can be jettisoned. The environmentalists are one of many (or perhaps one of the many of facets) of the leftists/ statists/ collectivists/ utopians that Neo and we, her devoted readers, have little problem seeing through.

    Some of their shitty ideas have been left behind, but they never get their comeuppance.

    Is there some media concensus threshold that can be identified and must be reached before global warming hysteria is acknowledged by the culture at large? i.e a tree falling in the forest makes a sound.

    At some point global warming will stop being referred to in much the same pattern that the new ice age crap from the 70s and 80s was dropped. The climate change rebranding will not work because the ammunition was spent on warming. Climate “change” alone means nothing because it does not suggest a direction for the dictates; there must be a specter of either warming or cooling. AGW has been forced too strongly for too long and made too great an impression to be forgotten the way cooling was from its nadir in the mid-80s

    Will anyone retire in disgrace, get fired or become a laughingstock? (“paging Mr Gore”)

  28. There should be consequences

    Yes, Stanford tenure at the very least!

    Like Dr. Paul Ehrlich.

  29. Gibbs: Despite research dispute, ‘climate change is happening’

    thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/69797-gibbs-despite-research-dispute-climate-change-is-happening

    there is such a thing as talking about somethign too long and not choosing… and there is such a tactic as to force a choice early so as to define the choice, rather than let facts do so.

    its VERY common among the far left, like nazi and soviets to completely lie or debase soemthing.

    ergo… if they are involved, you can be sure truth is sacrificed. this is why we never trusted them in the past, it wasnt paranoia if your brother actually is a sociopath and you dont want him sitting at the dinner table, is it?

    Despite the incident, which rocked international headlines last week, climate science is sound, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs stressed this afternoon, and the White House nonetheless believes “climate change is happening.”

    game set match..

    they are going to vote away sovereignity and we are goinb to be a part of the new soviet (council).

    it doesnt matter validity, it matters who wins.
    validity only matters in a meritocracy or when trying to make one…

    welcome to the world of lies and mirrors and where nothing works!!!

    why? because sciecne lies, psychology then lies. factories lie as to outputs beacuset htey get lies as inputs. the whole thing spreads throlughout.

    its a way of life, not a isolated one off.

  30. There should be consequences.

    Yes, Chief Science Advisor to the President.

    Like Dr. John Holdren.

  31. sorry baklava… i agree… and neo editing didnt help either (there was no saving it).

    there is a clear lineage from rousseau, through to us… its parallel to the socilists/communists/fascists…

    that if you know the COMPLETE history, with names and connections, you wuol dnever have fallen for the crap science posing as valid science.

    i will see if i can update the lineages… very hard to write 120 years of history we are ignorant of in two paragraphs…

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