Post-election musings
It was a good night for the Republicans, a bad night for Obama and liberal Democrats. Especially in New Jersey.
Obama will never admit it. But will he take it to heart? I doubt it. It will be full steam ahead on the agenda, and the same for Pelosi (and to a lesser extent Reid), who will attempt to twist the resistant Blue Dog arms (or is it legs?) ever more forcibly. Should be interesting.
If same sex marriage can’t win in places like California and now Maine, then its day hasn’t quite come. However, I do think that, with the next generation coming up, it’s just a matter of time.
If Republicans want to win, they should nominate Republicans in the first place, not RINOs who will be challenged by Conservatives and end up splitting the vote.
A lot can happen between now and 2010.
The
moronsfine people at moveon.org won’t let them backtrack. Even if they wanted to backtrack.Expect more Dede Scozzafavas from the state GOP. They’re too stupid to learn their lesson here. None of the senior state people have resigned from this debacle and I doubt ever will. They’ll pretend Hoffmann lost because he was too conservative and not because he received ZERO support from the established party bigwigs.
“But will he take it to heart? ”
Of course not. Democrat losses mean that Republicans cheated or misled the voters, or that Democrats didn’t get the word out well enough, as they obviously have the best plans and candidates.
Okay, that’s the general liberal spin, not necessarily President Souffle’s. He may have good enough survival instincts to get some portion of the message – that he will have at least appear more moderate again, as he did during the campaign.
Oh, I think Reid will pay close attention! He is in a real fight for his seat in Nevada and has been trying to play both sides for several months now. How to remain in the O/Pelosi camp and still manage to be re-elected at home.
If Republicans want to win, they should nominate Republicans in the first place,…
Nothing more needs to be added to that.
–
I’m imagining The Messiah’s response to how Palin’s endorsement of Hoffman so dramatically changed the political calculations of that NY race.
True, Hoffman didn’t win – but he came damn close.
He did so with no help from the Republican establishment and the *official* Republican in the race actually endorsing the Democrat!
If Palin’s influence is so strong that she can elevate someone without a hope in hell of winning, to coming within reaching distance of success, the Obamabots everywhere are probably wondering what kind of fight they will be in when the 2010 election cycle is at it’s hottest and Palin is endorsing her own brand of politician rather than pulling a Newt and simply endorsing the party anointed…
The Disciples of The Won should be afraid…very afraid…..
My hope is that this will be the final nail in the coffin of the Ibama-Pelosi-Reid health plan. Dick Morris already thinks its a deathblow. And he echoes an earlier article by William Kristol suggesting the same.
Then, in 2010, the tsunami.
This post on DailyKos shows that in congressional elections in NY-23 (and earlier districts encompassing the same area, due to redistricting) since 1982, Democrats have never broken 38%. The former office holder, John McHugh, won over 65% of the vote in 2008 even with Obama carrying the district. (McHugh left Congress when Obama appointed him Secretary of the Army.) Yesterday, with the highly-touted support of the national Whig party opposing him, the Democrat got 49% of the vote. So Republicans had no trouble winning when they were nominating what you consider to be RINOs. But they flamed out spectacularly, reducing their edge by 16%, when they went for what you consider to be a true conservative.
I can only hope that this is the sort of opposition Democrats will face in 2010. If so, we’ll do very well indeed.
“If Republicans want to win, they should nominate Republicans in the first place, not RINOs who will be challenged by Conservatives and end up splitting the vote.”
The Dems are driving the Car of State toward a sheer cliff at 90 miles per hour. The “moderate” Republicans are yelling, “Whoa, whoa, whoa, there! Let’s keep it under the speed limit!”
And when we actual conservatives ask, “Why not simply stop and go the other direction?” the “moderate” Republicans reply, “You *have* to vote for us, you have nowhere else to go. What are you going to do, vote for the Democrats?”
Well, that dog don’t hunt no more — it’s a distinction with no difference whether the Car of State goes over the cliff at 90 miles per hour or at 55.
Hy, pass the bong please !
Kidding – I’ve never smoked pot. Maybe that’s why I’m logical!
RE: RINOs
As I’ve noted here and here , my main concern is how “RINO” is defined, and where the line is drawn between an “acceptable” Republican and a RINO. I think in the case of NY-23, there was so little difference between Scozzofava and her Democrat opponent, that it was worth the effort to support the third-party Conservative Hoffman. Sometimes, I would suggest, that it would not be the case.
“it’s a distinction with no difference whether the Car of State goes over the cliff at 90 miles per hour or at 55.”
It would matter if, with the help of certain Center or Center Right Republicans, you could actually get the car to STOP.
He He
http://michellemalkin.com/2009/11/04/the-gop-elites-1-million-object-lesson-and-the-message-of-ny-23/
You tell it Michelle ~!
http://michellemalkin.com/2009/11/04/making-sure-the-message-sticks-more-rejected-rnc-forms/
Those rejected forms are brilliant. We Democrats should get on the RNC mailing list so that we can send in more of those – the fewer RINOs on the ballots, the better our chances in 2010.
Hy Rosen: Thank you for your brilliant analysis. It really put the sweat on me being profound and all like you normally are. Hmmm .. . but.. . ah . . might a lack of charisma (of course, unlike you) on the part of Hoffman have something to do with it? Might being a total unknown have a little something to do with it? Might a lack of support from the Rep party apparatchik figure in there somewhere? How about that small percentage who went for Scozzofava despite her betrayal? Might Hoffman’s fortunes been different without her betrayal to the other side? Oh and by the way, would you mind demonstrating your profound intellect again with what the NJ and VA elections portend for, as you say, ‘We democrats’?
And if my grandmother had wheels she’d be a bus. But shouldn’t all those “what about”s of yours have been considered by the people who sought to derail the actual Republican candidate before they sprang into action? Should they, and you, be surprised that the candidate that they attacked decided to get even?
The NJ and VA elections portend that deeply unpopular candidates and candidates that pander to the other side instead of to their base lose. To me this means that the congressional Democrats had better remove their thumbs from their bodily orifices and start passing progressive laws, and ignore the whimpering of the Blue Dogs. If they think they can pull into their shells and do nothing and still win, then next year you people here will really have something to cheer about.
1994 II
To Democrats that’s like Halloween II or Paranormal II
To Republicans it’s a saved country from liberal radicals who are in power.
Neo,
AARP may commit political suicide
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091104/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_overhaul
Here’s the ratings breakdown in prime time last night:
FNC: 4,043,000 in total viewers (1,130,000 in A25-54)
MSNBC: 974,000 in total viewers (308,000 in A25-54)
HLN: 842,000 in total viewers (341,000 in A25-54)
CNN: 826,000 in total viewers (227,000 in A25-54)
How is that for irrelevant. CNN less than Head Line News !
And … this from Pennsylvania (next to NJ for those of you in Rio Linda)
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/11/024873.php
Ilion
your moderate Republicans equate to our Red Tories. the same kind of arrogance led to a decade long conflict that gave the Liberal party of Canada a holiday.Harper finally ended that , a mix of principles and practicality.there’s no point to winning if it doesn’t mean something,then again there’s no point in being a dead hero either.the biggest thing about politics that frustrates the hell out of me are people that view politics like some people view sports teams. the difference between them is that politics has consequences.
It may possibly be too late.
A doctor on Beck this afternoon “reframed” things–put things in a different perspective–for me.
It is not just that we have to fight Obama & Co.’s health care bill and if we defeat it, things will be OK.
In fact, legislation setting up and funding the major organization and administrative machinery that will decide who gets care and what level of care in Obamacare was hidden within the hurriedly passed and unread or comprehended–that, of course, was the whole idea–“emergency economic stimulus” bill hurriedly passed with no one reading it or understanding what was it it, and Obama has already quietly made his appointments–Rahm Emanuel’s brother, Dr.. Ezechiel Emanuel, who favors evaluating older people’s worthiness of treatment in terms of the cost per of their remaining “quality of life years”–was one of those appointments; it is ready to go.
I suspect that this is not the only part of Obamacare–that we know essentially nothing about–that has already been created, funded and staffed, ready to go.
Hy Rosen: I don’t know about your grandmother and the cute thing about her being a bus, but I bet she could learn from life and make adjustments even in her advanced years. This is my point – it’s not good to lose even one Rep House seat in this struggle for the future of our country. A message was sent to the Rep party apparatchik by the Hoffman experience that they must get their house in order and do it soon. Unfortunately, it costs us, the opposition, a seat in the House this time, but if all of my ‘what ifs’ had been applied, the chances are that the Republicans would not have lost it. The apparatchik didn’t apply the what ifs. Now, I figure the learning curve is probably pretty broad with this particular group Republican party leaders, but I also they think can learn from the experience and we’ll see about next time. It’s your bet against mine. And given that this country remains a center to center-right country, despite Obama’s dreams, I figure the smart money will bet with me.
I love Ilion’s analogy! That’s perfect! It’s so correct!
To me you’re a RINO if you even accept a liberal presence; i.e.: Global Warming. Accepting the premise means you’re tacitly agreeing with the direction that the car is going knowing that the cliff is ahead.
premise, not presence
Hy, just keep repeating “There is nothing to worry about. There is nothing to worry about.” Reassure your friends on the Left. Everybody hates those mean ole conservatives, just like they hated Reagan. They will never win anything.
If you want to see someone who really wants party purity, see here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/11/4/800316/-Tonights-big-lesson
Oblio:
Good example.
Hy:
I must admit, I am one Republican (Center Right, as I often say) who does have concerns about being too absolute with the ideology.
But, remember, were competing against a party so concerned with leftist ideology that its trying to make its centrists “walk the plank,” lemming like, on the enormous government health care bill, and on “cap and trade.” If this continues, I see a not too happy 2010 for the Dems.
Oblio:
Thats an excellent link. Thats what I’m concerned about happening in the GOP, but it looks like the tendency toward “purity” is much worse on the left. Reading some of the comments is really telling.
One Noam Chomsky quoting commenter says this:
Since when have the Dems ever adopted a “lets all be friends” mentality? Theyve been trying to ram through enormous pieces of legislation without even considering Republicans, and by coercing the Blue Dogs within their ranks. (And the line about Bush “fighting for his freedom” is chilling.)
Another one says:
I think their problem is that the tea they are serving is a strong brew called socialism, and it tastes like crap. But it makes me wonder about these posters: just how far does Obama, Pelosi and Reid have to get to make them happy, when theyre already so far in that direction?
Heres a real telling one;
That one makes me wonder: Are liberals ever really happy, or do they just enjoy that angry, bitter feeling?
Barone in WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013004574515681098665524.html
Gotta love electing a Republican County Executive in Westchester.
Barone argues there are inevitable fissures emerging in the Democratic coalition of people making more than $200,000 (who are anti-conservative on what are euphemistically called “social issues”) and people making less than $50,000 (who want government money).
E.J. Dionne (behind the registration wall at the Washington Post, so no link) is Johnny One Note on the “Republican crack up” and the voters’ repudiation of the National Republican Machine in NY23. He believes that voters are really showing how much they reject the extremes and are yearning for a “mainstream progressivism” of centrists like President Obama.
So who is right, Barone or Dionne? Which way should you bet? That’s a Ford vs GM kind of choice; in other words, not a hard call.
Great point, J.L. You know as well as I that progressives are only happy when they are unhappy and angry.
I remember walking through the streets of Geneva after an anti-American demonstration that windows smashed, fires burning, and obscenity-laced graffiti sprayed everywhere. I went to a meeting with a progressive American lady of a certain age. She said, in a dreamy tone of voice, “Wasn’t it peaceful?” I remember thinking, that word doesn’t mean what you think it means.
The office of Westchester County Executive has been held by both Democrats and Republicans, but mostly the latter – here’s the history. Spano, the current Democrat, has been in office for twelve years, but the prior holder, O’Rourke, was a Republican and held office for fourteen years. It was strictly Republican for more than thirty years between 1939 and 1973.
As for us whiners on the Left, we want Obama to do what he promised to do – reform health care, end DADT, close Guanté¡namo, open up government secrecy, give up on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and so forth. We want to do the equivalent of what was done to Scozzafava in NY-23, for the same reason – without consistent hard pushing to the edges, politicians naturally gravitate to the center where they try to do nothing risky but necessary, and just try to get re-elected. Your socialism is my progressivism, just as your return to conservative principles is my know-nothingry.
Hy, smoking pot said, “open up government secrecy”
oh my! As a sober, drug free human being who reads the daily news from all kinds of sources – I almost shot my coffee onto my monitor.
Hy (the honest liberal) then wrote, “give up on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
I have to hand it to you. At least you are honest about the destruction you want to see ! Thank you The 9/11 (unless you are a truther) perps were based out of Afghanistan (yes they were Saudis) and your drugged up brain can’t handle any more logic.
“I love Ilion’s analogy! That’s perfect! It’s so correct!”
The idea expressed in the analogy goes back to Mark Steyn and others (stretching back hundreds of years), and the basic outline of the particular analogy, so far as I know, to Steyn.
Harry McHaliburtonstein: “To me you’re a RINO if you even accept a liberal [premise]; i.e.: Global Warming. Accepting the premise means you’re tacitly agreeing with the direction that the car is going knowing that the cliff is ahead.”
That’s good, as far as it goes; but we all accept all sorts of “liberal” (or leftist) premises — it’s kind of unavoidable, seeing as the “liberals” have long controlled the indoctrination centers, … er, schools.
Perhaps a RINO is a Republican (or presumptive conservative) who cannot be reasoned with concerning specific “liberal” (or leftist) premises — one who, even seeing the approaching drop over the precipice, cannot be persuaded to drop the premise which cannot but lead one over the precipice.
Timothy McVeigh was born and raised in New York, but we didn’t have the army occupy the state after his attack on the Murrah Building. Preparation for 9/11-style attacks can take place anywhere. Trying to occupy a country because the preparation happened there is plain stupid. And no, I’m not a Truther. Conspiracy-mongering denialists of any stripe are just idiots.
New York isn’t giving safe haven to training grounds and terrorists Hy.
You are an odd one.
We aren’t trying to ‘occupy’ a country. If that is what you think our intent is you are smoking too much.
Why would we need to occupy NY? I thought we were already doing that and had been since the Indians granted us immigration permits over 200 yrs ago.
Illion:
“That’s good, as far as it goes; but we all accept all sorts of “liberal” (or leftist) premises – it’s kind of unavoidable, seeing as the “liberals” have long controlled the indoctrination centers, … er, schools.”
Oh, and the press, who had “moderate” Republicans fooled that Obama was somehow a centrist while the true Republicans understood otherwise.
It is physically impossible to control all places where safe haven might be given to a score of people training with low technology. For example, the 9/11 attackers who flew the planes did not learn to fly in Afghanistan; they learned to fly in the United States. That is the nature of asymmetric warfare – the small, nimble side causes the large, slow side to incur enormous costs in mounting a defense.