By hook or by crook: the public option edges closer
Whoever said our legislators (approval rating: 21%) weren’t creative?
They sure are working hard to figure out a way to get enough votes to slide some sort of public option by, whether Americans like it or not—although if certain recent polls are any indication, Americans actually like it quite a bit.
Let’s see: first there was the trigger. Then, the opportunity for states without affordable insurance to opt-in to a public option if they choose to do so. A new twist on the latter theme is a for a state opt-out clause, whereby:
…[I]nstead of starting with no national public option and giving state governments the right to develop their own, the newest compromise approaches the issue from the opposite direction: beginning with a national public option and giving state governments the right not to have one”¦
Allahpundit sees a state opt-out clause as just another ploy to hide the fact that the slide to a public option will be well-nigh inevitable:
When, not if, some sort of federal tax hike is passed to help pay for this boondoggle ”” maybe it’ll be a VAT, maybe just an increase in the marginal income tax rates ”” would residents of states without a public option get some sort of deduction or credit? If not, there’s going to be intense pressure on the state legislature to approve a public option if only to ensure that the locals get something for the tax dollars being siphoned from them.
And then of course reconciliation’s always available to pass the public option. Its use, however, would be unprecedented for a non-budget bill that promises to make sweeping changes in a matter so vital.
Does America care about the methods used to pass the bill? It would seem so, if this poll is any indication. Not surprisingly, Democrats polled wouldn’t mind if a health care reform bill has no Republican support (63% in favor), while Republicans protest (88% against). The more interesting finding is that Independents are against it too (62% say no). So using reconciliation to pass transformative legislation that Republicans fail to support and some Democrats oppose also would seem to be a highly unpopular move.
Obama’s health care reform plan (whatever that is) gets low marks in general, 47% against to 40% in favor, with Independents again making the difference by coming down against it. One would think that would mean opposition to the public option, but that doesn’t seem to be the case—although the way the poll question on that subject is worded, “Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans?” may skew the response (for example, some people might not mind a public option that would fairly compete with private plans rather than drive them out of business, but don’t think the bill will provide one). At any rate, according to the poll, Americans say “yes” to this question about the private option by a wide margin, 61% to 34%.
Why then do so many people remain against Obamacare? Perhaps it’s because some of them, like me, don’t believe that private insurance will be able to compete with the public option as proposed, and that their health care choices will be more highly restricted; the poll is mum on that score since it doesn’t ask that question. But we do know that there’s a great deal of skepticism about Obama’s promise that the plan will be deficit-neutral. Even Democrats have their doubts (only 50% think it will be, versus 32% who don’t), whereas Republicans have powerful suspicions about Obama’s claim (93% to 5%), and Independents feel likewise, although not quite as strongly (75% to 18%). That’s not exactly a vote in confidence in the bill as a whole. It’s likely that what has been percevied as Obama’s broken promises on the stimulus have added to the public’s distrust, and rightly so.
As for the CBO, someone may have done a bit of arm-twisting there to get them on board. Megan McCardle finds their new figures “deeply puzzling” (and remember, she used to be an Obama supporter):
So most of the major components of the program are scheduled to either cost more, or raise less revenue . . . but overall, it’s generating a bigger surplus. It’s the healthcare economist’s version of “We’re losing money on every unit, but we’ll make it up in volume!”
Follow the link to see her efforts to figure it out, as well as some interesting attempts in the comments section.
I don’t usually make predictions, but I’ll make a tentative one right now: some form of health care reform will be passed, and it will include at least some type of public option. The method will be controversial, and the results will not be deficit-neutral.
Why then do so many people remain against Obamacare? Perhaps it’s because some of them, like me, don’t believe that private insurance will be able to compete with the public option as proposed;
of course it cant… how much taxes does a state insurance company pay, and how much taxes does a free market company pay.
i worked for 10 years creating rates and rules for insurance. most have no idea how the stuff works. they no longer use rates and rules as they moved away from the mcgarren furgeson act.
they are already working towards that end!!!
anyone notice that they want to tax medical stuff liek tampons, tongue depressors, etc.
well, in that way, the stuf they pay will come back to them as a tax rebate to the state expenes, and it will be shifted from the insurers.
how can the insurers compete when they are paying part of the cost of competition themselves?
for the sake of easy math say its %10 on these items cost.
so a box of supply A costs 100 and 10 in taxes.
if the state pays, it pays 110, and gets 10 dollars back.
if the insurance pays, it pays 110, and the state gets 10 dollars back.
see how it works? you dont have to wait. its already there and we are too stupid to figure it out. thats how dumbed down we are.
leatherstocking was written in 13th grade language level… the average for its day… when i was a kid, busines writing has to be to grade 8… now we wonder if we can operate at a 5th grade level…
well, i operate above the old 13th as i am older and exceeded those qualifications then to get into bx science.
however as my career as progressed, i have done worse and worse over time as the gap of understanding gets wider and wider and the peoples self confidence is so high you cant teach them, they can only teach you (even though they dont understand).
to paraphrase benjimen franklyn…
we have a banana republiuc now, how long can we keep it. (as there are still things worse)
Regarding your predictions, neo,
“some form of health care reform will be passed”
– I’m not so sure. I can agree on one level, but my gut is saying they are trying awfully hard to make it appear that the health care bills they are backing are popular.
In the end you may be right and trickery may work to get a bill passed that truly doesn’t have popular support, but the congress critters know that if they pi$$ off a large enough percentage of the population that they will be out of a job.
“…it will include at least some type of public option.”
If passed, yes, I agree.
Doesn’t make it right and it doesn’t make it popular, but I agree some sort of public option would end up being included as a reward for that great percentage of the population that doesn’t even pay taxes.
“The method will be controversial….”
Quite.
I envision something in the end that closely resembles the stench around how the 1994 AWB was passed.
The AWB likewise was supposed to have overwhelming popular support – and democrats had their collective a$$es handed to them in the elections that same year, with even Clinton stating that the AWB played a large role in removing so many democrat congress critters from congress.
“….and the results will not be deficit-neutral.”
I agree. It won’t be deficit-neutral by a long shot.
I suspect it will become so expensive and unwieldy a program that within a few years it will face collapse.
Unfortunately, I think it will last just long enough to kill private insurance, leaving the general public with little other option than rationed health care.
And of course once these types of programs are in place, hell will freeze over before it’s rescinded so we will then be stuck with the program forever.
Regarding the CBO, has anyone actually checked to see how accurate their forecasts have been over the past 5, 10, 20, or 30 years?
Democrats seem to believe that they’ll pay a higher price not pushing a public option. I think the verdict is still out on that. They’re being fed stories by the state media that makes them believe opposition has bottomed out and that the public option is slowly rebounding in support. The ‘independents’ are notoriously fickle and just might be swayed by enough news propaganda.
I can’t go through a single day without wishing I could leave this country (if only my wife would let me). A few years ago I had a job offer overseas; my wife was supportive up until the moment I got the offer, and then disagreed vehemently with the idea (sigh).
All I see in the public option is a healthcare system with too few doctors and nurses, and run with the efficiency, consistency and bedside manner as the TSA airport inspectors.
“Why then do so many people remain against Obamacare?”
Basically it is because every time Obama talks about what he envisions they can tell it doesn’t pass the common sense test. He wants lower costs, while including more people and increasing quality. Most people know that does not add up.
Most people do not see why the problem can’t be broken down into pieces and each one done separately. For instance, we know that Medicare and Medicaid are going broke because of rising costs coupled with fraud and waste. Those are government run programs. Why can’t those issues be addressed now, without reference to private insurance? Obama cannot explain why and that makes people suspicious.
The fact that most p[eople get health insurance from their employers has become a problem in the last 20 years because people are not staying with one company for an entire career. When they leave they lose coverage until they find a new job. If they have a pre-existing condition they may not find coverage as an individual and it may make it more difficult to get another job. More small businesses are being formed that cannot provide the level of insurance benefits that a large corporation can. The answer is for companies to offer health reimbursement programs to employees where they receive the money to buy their own personal policy, which they can keep if they leave their job. Obama and the dems do not address this issue at all. The reason is it would make it more difficult for the government option to drive private insurance out of the marketplace.
Obama and the Congress want to force insurance companies to take all applicants with pre-existing conditions at no increase in premiums. Most people recognize that that will drive all premiums up over time. So, where is the cost saving?
Most people and those dems that are honest recognize that the public option is designed to eventually drive private insurers out of business. Obama is on record as saying it may take 15 – 20 years and he can live with that. People are opposed because they see this as the route to socilaized medicine.
Well, I could go on (tort reform, store front medical clinics, the unionization of the medical industry, etc.), but those are a few of the reasons Obama’s reform remains unpopular.
OK, regarding how the CBO estimated the cost, CATO explains it in fairly simple, straightforward terms.
http://www.cato.org/pressroom.php?display=ncomments&id=287
$2,000,000,000,000.00……….!!! Dayumn…..
“I don’t usually make predictions, but I’ll make a tentative one right now: some form of health care reform will be passed, and it will include at least some type of public option. The method will be controversial, and the results will not be deficit-neutral.”
I hope that you’re wrong, but I fear that you are not… 🙁
Public Option???
Yes!!!!!!
It’s way past time and those against it need to re-think their views.
I’m sure I’ll be pounded on this, but it helps to remember:
There by the grace of God, go I.
60% of Americans want the Public Option.
So quit saying that folks are against it.
DownriverDem: Do you ever actually read posts before you comment on them?
For anyone who thinks “It’s way past time” to go the public option route, please check what happened to health care costs in Mitt Romney’s state after they passed mandatory health care laws…..